Generating Capacity Fuel Forecasts Ed 4 2007

SUMMARY

Introduction

• This is a database containing forecasts of power generation capacity by fuel
• The most authoritative forecasts of power generating capacity yet published by ABS Energy Research, based on national official demand projections and utility reports
• Forecasts are analysed by fuel - coal, oil, gas, multi-fuel, hydro, nuclear, wind, solar PV, biomass, geothermal, ocean energy, annually to 2011
• 187 countries, fuel analysis for each country, each year from 1990/91/92 to 2011

Database Scope

• ABS has constructed forecasts of total capacity for eight years and these forecasts are now analysed by fuel - coal, oil, gas, multi-fuel, hydro, nuclear, wind, solar PV, biomass, geothermal, ocean energy
• In constructing the projections and the fuel analysis 2007 we have been able to draw on the national demand projections of 119 individual countries and the results have been validated against eight international forecast series
• In some countries it is predicted that demand will exceed actual build and in these cases the results have been adjusted
• Historical data has been assembled from every country and from 20 international agencies
• The composition of generating capacity by energy source is changing in reaction to several pressures
• National policies vary greatly and the changes will have a crucial effect on many economies and business sectors in the next few years
• The world has relied on unlimited supplies of natural gas to convert from coal, but questions of security of supply have been given a new impetus
• Some countries have increased their nuclear builds, while others maintain steadfast opposition to it
• Some of the major economies had announced a closure of their coal-fired plants in reaction to environmental concerns
• Many of these countries are now reconsidering this decision and it is likely that coal will enjoy a renaissance in the next decades before the birth of the hydrogen economy
• The development of clean coal technology (CCT) continues
• The US has embarked on a large coal generation expansion and the Federal Government has earmarked large funds for CCT development
• Nuclear power is being re-evaluated and some countries which had rejected it in the wake of Chernobyl are re-building aging nuclear plant and up-grading the technology
• The development of renewable energy continues and there is no question but that it will grow
• At the same time sober voices are asking questions about issues such as cost, contribution to base load and intermittency

Key Research Findings

• The database identifies the countries with market opportunities for generation technology
• The database provides insight into growth and decline of fuel sectors in the generation industry
• This database looks at opportunities in growing sectors of the generation industry