Housebuilding Market Republic of Ireland 2007

SUMMARY

AMA Research has published the 2nd Edition of the "Housebuilding Market - Republic of Ireland 2007". The Irish housing industry has experienced a decade of sustained growth in recent years with new housing completions breaking all growth predictions and expected to reach 92,000 completions in 2006. The second edition of this report focuses on the characteristics, recent developments and leading suppliers to the sector. The report concentrates on the key organisations within the house-building market and provides a comprehensive review of the major aspects of the new house-building sector.

Key Areas Covered:

• Review of House Builders - analysis of major quoted and unquoted house-builders, volumes, key house-building and financial indicators over the last five years, recent corporate activity, house-building and commercial activity, forecasts of future trends.
• Detailed assessment of the house-building market - house-building completions, analysis by sector (private/public), house prices, house-moving market, housing and development land, planning issues, forecasts of future trends.
• Assessment of overall construction market - analysis of performance over time, recent trends, forecasts of future developments.
• Prefabricated Building Products/Off-Site Manufacture - overview of product ranges, use of OSM in public & private sector housing, recent developments, forecasts of future trends.
• The Timber Frame Housing Market - market size, environmental aspects, suppliers to the market.

Of Particular Interest:

• Key financial results reported by many of the major house-builders.
• Residential House-building remains the key driver of output in the Construction Sector, accounting for 66% of the market and estimated to be worth over € 24 billion in 2006.
• New dwellings are now being completed at a rate of over 21 units per 1,000 of population and now occurring at a faster rate than household formation.
• House building is currently running at four times the European average and around 7 times the UK average.
• Analysis of both the Regional and Dublin Housing Markets.
• Private housing completions accounted for 93% of total completions in 2005.
• A housing shortfall in Dublin is expected over the next few years, where housing output accounts for only 20% of the national total, despite the fact that 40% of the population lives in the capital.
• Timber frame housing now accounts for about 30% of annual completions.
• Current annual completion numbers are unsustainable over the long-term.

Key areas of coverage in the report include:

HOUSEBUILDERS

• Analysis of the major quoted house-builders including volumes, key house-building and financial indicators over the last five years, recent corporate activity, house-building and commercial activity, forecasts of future trends.
• Major review of the larger regional unquoted house-builders, development activity, financial analysis, current projects.
• Detailed review of the leading regional and local house-builders.

HOUSEBUILDING MARKET

• Current market conditions, overview of the market during 2005/06 - forecasts of a slowdown in 2007/08.
• Analysis by sector - Private and Public House-building, changing market mix, factors influencing the market, future trends, the value of house-building output by sector.
• New housing completions - trends since 1996, review of the market in recent years, completions per capita, drivers of growth, analysis of housing completions for public and private sectors and by region.
• Review of regional house-building activity, including analysis of the Dublin Housing Market.
• Market structure - stock of buildings in Ireland, ownership structure, national and regional property prices, price comparison by County, residential property transactions.
• Factors affecting housing supply and demand, affordability and mortgage rates, euro-zone interest rates, Strategic Development Zones, Residential Density Guidelines, Planning Permissions, Population Projections.

PRE-FABRICATED BUILDINGS / OFF SITE MANUFACTURE (OSM)

• Overview of factors influencing use of pre-fabricated building materials.
• Advantages/Disadvantages of OSM, use of OSM in public/private housing sectors.
• OSM Suppliers.
• Market for Timber Frame Housing in Ireland.
• Suppliers of Timber Frame Housing in Ireland.

CONSTRUCTION SECTOR

• Construction Output at overall levels.
• The impact of residential house building as the major sector of the Construction Market.
• Construction output per sector and future trends.
• Forecasts for Construction Output in 2007-2009.
• Regional Construction Output by value and sector

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. INTRODUCTION

2. SUMMARY

3 ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT & SOCIAL BACKGROUND

• 3.1 GENERAL
• 3.2 ECONOMIC BACKGROUND.
  • 3.2.1 Economic Growth in 2006
  • 3.2.2 GDP
  • 3.2.3 Interest Rates
  • 3.2.4 Imports and Exports
  • 3.2.5 Consumer Confidence
  • 3.2.6 Impact of the 2007 Budget
• 3.3 DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE
  • 3.3.1 Population
  • 3.3.2 Regional Profiles

4. CONSTRUCTION MARKET OVERVIEW

• 4.1 TOTAL CONSTRUCTION MARKET
  • 4.1.1 Value of Output - Construction New Work 2005
  • 4.1.2 Performance in 2006
  • 4.1.3 Forecasts for Construction Output 2007-2009
• 4.2 REGIONAL CONSTRUCTION OUTPUT

5. THE NEW HOUSING MARKET

• 5.1 DEFINITION
• 5.2 HOUSE-BUILDING MARKET -OVERVIEW
  • 5.2.1 Overall Market Performance
  • 5.2.2 Drivers of Growth
  • 5.2.3 The Housing Market During 2005 and 2006
  • 5.2.4 Housing Market 2007 and Beyond
• 5.3 HOUSING COMPLETIONS
  • 5.3.1 Overall Figures
  • 5.3.2 Housing Completions Per Capita
  • 5.3.3 Private Sector Completions
  • 5.3.4 Public Sector Housing
  • 5.3.5 Housing Completions by Type of Unit
• 5.4 REGIONAL HOUSE-BUILDING ACTIVITY
  • 5.4.1 Regional House-building Completions
  • 5.4.2 Dublin Housing Market
• 5.5 HOUSE PRICES
  • 5.5.1 National House Prices
  • 5.5.2 House Price Growth beyond 2006
  • 5.5.3 House Price Inflation
  • 5.5.4 Regional House Prices
  • 5.5.5 Affordability/Mortgage Rates
• 5.6 HOUSING TRANSACTIONS
• 5.7 PREFABRICATED CONSTRUCTION IN THE IRISH HOUSING MARKET
  • 5.7.1 Types of Prefabricated Building Construction
  • 5.7.2 Application of Prefabrication to the Irish Housing Industry
  • 5.7.3 Advantages/Disadvantages of OSM
  • 5.7.4 OSM Suppliers
  • 5.7.5 Timber Frame Housing in Ireland

6. THE HOUSEBUILDERS

• 6.1 DEFINITIONS
• 6.2 OVERALL MARKET
• 6.3 HOUSEBUILDERS COMPANY PROFILES
  • 6.3.1 Quoted House Builders
  • 6.3.2 Larger Regional House-builders
  • 6.3.3 Smaller Unquoted House-Builders
  • 6.3.4 Smaller Regional and Local House-builders

7. FUTURE PROSPECTS

TABLES AND CHARTS

• CHART 1 IRELAND - HOUSE-BUILDING COMPLETIONS 1996-2011
• TABLE 2 IRELAND - ANNUAL AVERAGE % CHANGE GDP 1998-2008
• TABLE 3 IMPORTS AND EXPORTS FROM AND TO IRELAND 1996-2006 BY VALUE - (€ MILLION)
• TABLE 4 IRELAND - ANNUAL AVERAGE % CHANGE IN CONSUMER PRICES 1997-2006
• TABLE 5 POPULATION OF THE REPUBLIC OF IRELAND 1992-2015 (MILLIONS)
• CHART 6 RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION SHARE OF TOTAL CONSTRUCTION OUTPUT (%) 1996-2006
• TABLE 7 VALUE OF CONSTRUCTION OUTPUT NEW WORK 1999-2009 (€ M)
• TABLE 8 STRUCTURE AND VALUE OF THE IRISH CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY 2006 (€ BILLION)
• TABLE 9 VALUE OF CONSTRUCTION OUTPUT BY REGION - 2003 AND 2005 (€ M)
• TABLE 10 NEW DWELLINGS COMPLETED 1996-2006 (NUMBER OF COMPLETIONS)
• TABLE 11 NEW DWELLINGS COMPLETED 1996-2011 (NUMBER OF COMPLETIONS)
• CHART 12 NUMBER OF PLANNING PERMISSIONS VS. COMPLETIONS 2000-2005
• TABLE 13 NEW HOUSE-BUILDING LEVELS PER CAPITA (1,000 OF POPULATION) IN IRELAND AND THE UK 1996 - 2006
• TABLE 14 % SHARE OF PRIVATE AND PUBLIC SECTOR NEW DWELLINGS 1996-2006
• CHART 15 BREAKDOWN OF THE SOCIAL HOUSING SECTOR - IRELAND 2005
• CHART 16 TOTAL HOUSE COMPLETIONS BY TYPE - 2005
• CHART 17 TOTAL HOUSE COMPLETIONS BY TYPE - 2004
• TABLE 18 REGIONAL HOUSE-BUILDING COMPLETIONS (PUBLIC & PRIVATE) BY COUNTY (%SHARE) 2006
• TABLE 19 HOUSE-BUILDING COMPLETIONS (PUBLIC & PRIVATE) IN THE DUBLIN AREA 2002-2006
• CHART 20 NUMBER OF PLANNING PERMISSIONS IN DUBLIN Q1 02 - Q1 06
• TABLE 21 AVERAGE PRICE OF NEW DWELLINGS IN IRELAND 1996-2009 (€ '000)
• CHART 22 HOUSE PRICE INFLATION IN IRELAND 1996-2008
• TABLE 23 AVERAGE PRICE OF NEW DWELLINGS BY COUNTY 1996, 2004 & 2005 (€ '000)
• CHART 24 IRELAND HOUSE PRICES - NATIONAL VS. DUBLIN - 2001-2006 (€ 000')
• CHART 25 HOUSE AFFORDABILITY INDEX - MORTGAGE PAYMENTS AS A PERCENTAGE OF NET MONTHLY INCOME (1990-2007)
• TABLE 26 HOME OWNERSHIP IN IRELAND (ALL TYPES OF HOME) - WHOLE COUNTRY VS. DUBLIN 2001-2005
• TABLE 27 ABBEY PLC - KEY FINANCIAL INDICATORS
• TABLE 28 MCINERNEY HOLDINGS PLC - KEY FINANCIAL INDICATORS
• TABLE 29 KEY INDICATORS FOR ABBEY PLC AND MCINERNEY HOLDINGS PLC - 5 YEAR ANALYSIS