Housebuilding Market - UK 2008-2012

SUMMARY

On the 28th July 2008, AMA Research will publish the Seventh Edition of the "Housebuilding Market - UK 2008-2012 report. Early-mid 2008 has seen a significant deterioration in the housing market in general, with housebuilding volumes in severe decline as a result of the 'credit crunch' and falling consumer confidence. This report reviews current market developments and provides a balanced overview of activity levels, highlighting variations in sector and regional performance.

Key areas in the Report :

• Review of Housebuilders - analysis of major housebuilders, volumes, market shares, positioning, key housebuilding indicators over 6 years, recent corporate activity, commercial developer activity and forecasts of future trends.
• Detailed Assessment of the Housebuilding Market - housing starts & completions, forecast completions up to 2012, analysis by sector (private/public), mix of houses/apartments, house prices, house-moving market, urban regeneration, forecasts of future trends.
• Focus on Net Additional Dwellings - growth of conversions / change of use, analysis of confusion in relation to target of 240,000 new dwellings,
• Future Prospects - outlook for 2008-09. Medium term prospects, barriers to growth.

Areas of particular interest:

• Focus on major changes in housebuilding - forecasts up to 2012.
• Government housing targets - confusion over targets (new building / net additional housing) - just how realistic are Government targets??.
• Growth of affordable housing - short/medium term prospects.
• The shift towards apartments and smaller dwellings.
• Increasing influence of mixed-use developments on "brown-field" sites and the relationship between housebuilders and commercial developers.
• Impact of Sustainable Communities Plan, Affordable Housing Programme and Code for Sustainable Homes and the growth of MMC and OSM techniques.

Key areas covered in the report include:

HOUSE-BUILDERS

• Overall market size, number of builders, analysis of key changes in recent years.
• Analysis of market shares of leading housebuilders, changes over 2000-2007. Analysis of key indicators for UK housebuilding (completions, turnover, pre-tax profits and average selling price) trend development since 2001, current market position.
• Rationalisation of industry structure, recent mergers & acquisitions, review of leading commercial developers in housebuilding, impact of new entrants, future prospects etc.
• Overview of the leading regional and local housebuilders, recent corporate activity. Analysis covering turnover, pre-tax profit, completions etc.

HOUSE-BUILDING MARKET

• Overview of construction sector, output levels by sector and impact on housebuilding, future trends.
• Current market conditions, overview of the market during 2007/08. New housing starts and completions -trends since 1998, review of market volatility in recent years, forecasts up to 2012, analysis of completions for public/ private sectors by region, impact of affordable housing market.
• Analysis by sector - Private, public, self build - changing market mix, factors influencing the market, future trends, value of housebuilding output by sector.
• Focus on growth of flats - rapid growth in volumes, share changes 2000-2007, future prospects (market saturation?)
• Market structure - stock of buildings in UK, ownership structure, housing stock by age of dwelling, average property prices, residential property transactions, land banks, increasing influence of mixed-use developments on "brown-field" sites.
• Factors influencing the housing market, implications of the Barker Report, the Sustainable Communities Plan and the Affordable Housing Programme, review of planning system, household projections, net immigration, etc.
• Overview of factors influencing use of MMC - Product review of OSM / MMC -, timber, steel frames, concrete - market volumes, mix (private / affordable) and trends etc.

FORECASTS - SHORT & LONGER TERM PROSPECTS

• Forecasts of completions 2008-2012 - market volatility, short term prospects for 2008 / 09 - length and severity of downturn? Long term prospects for sector - rate of market recovery from downturn.
• Review of key factors influencing prospects - Population growth, age of housing stock, changing household formations, affordable housing, planning system, 'Eco towns' etc.
• Impact of downturn, role of Government / affordable housing - impact of initiatives.
• Net Additional Housing - review of housing targets in England, review of confusion over new housebuilding and net additional housing (including conversions and change of use ) - realistic targets?
• Advantages/Disadvantages of OSM, use of OSM in public/private housing sectors.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. INTRODUCTION

2. SUMMARY & FUTURE PROSPECTS

• 2.1 CURRENT MARKET STATUS
• 2.2 FUTURE PROSPECTS

3. ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT

• 3.1 GDP
• 3.2 INFLATION & INTEREST RATES
• 3.3 UNEMPLOYMENT
• 3.4 HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION
• 3.5 STERLING
• 3.6 POPULATION PROFILE
• 3.7 CONCLUSIONS

4. THE NEW HOUSING MARKET

• 4.1 DEFINITION
• 4.2 CONSTRUCTION MARKET OVERVIEW
• 4.3 HOUSEBUILDING OVERVIEW 1997-2007
  • 4.3.1 Overview of Housing Starts and Completions by Volume
• 4.4 HOUSING STARTS
• 4.5 HOUSING COMPLETIONS
  • 4.5.1 Overall Figures
  • 4.5.2 Mix of Housebuilding Completions
  • 4.5.3 Overview of Flats Market in UK
  • 4.5.4 Regional Housebuilding Completions
• 4.6 VALUE OF HOUSEBUILDING
• 4.7 KEY INFLUENCING FACTORS ON NEW HOUSEBUILDING
  • 4.7.1 Barker Review of Housing Supply
  • 4.7.2 Eco Towns
  • 4.7.3 The Planning System
• 4.8 NET ADDITIONAL DWELLINGS
• 4.9 AFFORDABLE HOUSING
  • 4.9.1 Affordability
  • 4.9.2 Affordable Housing Policy
  • 4.9.3 National Affordable Housing Programme
  • 4.9.4 Communities England
  • 4.9.5 Households
• 4.10 HOUSE PRICES
  • 4.10.1 Average Price of New Dwellings
  • 4.10.2 Regional Variations
• 4.11 HOUSE-MOVING MARKET
  • 4.11.1 Residential Property Transactions
  • 4.11.2 Mortgages
• 4.12 HOUSING STOCK
  • 4.12.1 Overall Housing Stock
  • 4.12.2 Dwelling Stock By Age
  • 4.12.3 Urban Regeneration
  • 4.12.4 Brown-field and Contaminated Land
  • 4.12.5 Land-banks
  • 4.12.6 Housing Land Prices
• 4.13 HOUSEHOLD TENURE

5. THE HOUSEBUILDERS

• 5.1 OVERALL MARKET
• 5.2 DEFINITIONS
  • 5.2.1 National Housebuilders
  • 5.2.2 Contractors and Housebuilders
  • 5.2.3 Larger Regional Housebuilders
  • 5.2.4 Smaller Regional and Local Housebuilders
  • 5.2.5 Developers
• 5.3 HOUSEBUILDERS MARKET SHARE
• 5.4 NATIONAL HOUSEBUILDERS
  • 5.4.1 Company Profiles
  • 5.4.2 Five Year Performance Record
• 5.5 CONSTRUCTION GROUPS AND HOUSEBUILDERS
  • 5.5.1 Introduction
  • 5.5.2 Company Profiles
• 5.6 DEVELOPERS
• 5.7 REGIONAL & LOCAL HOUSEBUILDERS
  • 5.7.1 Company Profiles

6. CONSTRUCTION ISSUES

• 6.1 CODE FOR SUSTAINABLE HOMES
• 6.2 MODERN METHODS OF CONSTRUCTION
• 6.3 TYPES OF MMC
  • 6.3.1 OSM Suppliers
  • 6.3.2 The future of MMC

TABLES AND CHARTS

• CHART 1 UK HOUSEBUILDING COMPLETIONS 2000 - 2012
• CHART 2 INTEREST RATES AND INFLATION (CPI) FROM 1992-2012
• CHART 3 PDI & SAVINGS RATIO AT CURRENT PRICES 1992-2012
• TABLE 4 EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS 2000-2008 - STERLING TO THE DOLLAR, AND THE EURO, SPOT RATES
• CHART 5 AGE DISTRIBUTION OF THE RESIDENT UK POPULATION 2001 CENSUS (‘000)
• CHART 6 VALUE OF CONSTRUCTION OUTPUT NEW WORK 1990-2007 (£BN)
• TABLE 7 CONSTRUCTION NEW WORK OUTPUT BY SECTOR 1997-2007 (£ BILLION) AT CURRENT PRICES
• TABLE 8 PERFORMANCE OF THE UK NEW HOUSEBUILDING MARKET 1997 - 2007 (STARTS, COMPLETIONS, VALUES)
• TABLE 9 UK HOUSING STARTS 1997-2007 BY SECTOR (‘000)
• TABLE 10 HOUSE BUILDING COMPLETIONS 1998-2012 - UNITED KINGDOM (‘000 DWELLINGS)
• CHART 11 HOUSEBUILDING COMPLETIONS - % MIX BY HOUSES / FLATS GB 2001-2007
• TABLE 12 NUMBER OF FLATS BUILT IN UK - 2003-07 (‘000S)
• TABLE 13 PRIVATE HOUSE BUILDING COMPLETIONS 2003-2007 ENGLISH REGIONS BY VOLUME
• TABLE 14 PUBLIC SECTOR* HOUSE BUILDING COMPLETIONS 2002-2007 ENGLISH REGIONS BY VOLUME
• TABLE 15 UK VALUE OF HOUSEBUILDING - CONTRACTORS OUTPUT AT CURRENT PRICES (£ MILLION) 1997 - 2008 (PRIVATE / PUBLIC).
• TABLE 16 PROPOSED ECO-TOWN SITES
• CHART 17 NET ADDITIONAL DWELLINGS FORECAST, ENGLAND 2000 - 2020
• TABLE 18 IMPACT OF 2016 HOUSING TARGET IN ENGLAND - VOLUME MIX BY REGION AND MARKET AFFORDABILITY
• TABLE 19 KEY DEVELOPERS IN NAHP 2008-11
• TABLE 20 HOUSEHOLD ESTIMATES/PROJECTIONS - ENGLAND 2004 - 2029 (‘000S)
• CHART 21 AVERAGE PRICE OF NEW DWELLINGS UK 1997 - 2007 (£000)
• TABLE 22 AVERAGE PRICE OF NEW DWELLINGS 2003-2007 BY UK REGIONS (£)
• TABLE 23 NUMBER OF PROPERTY TRANSACTIONS IN ENGLAND AND WALES 1999-2006 (‘000)
• CHART 24 NO. OF PROPERTY TRANSACTIONS ENGLAND & WALES, QUARTERLY ‘000 2005-08
• TABLE 25 AVERAGE ADVANCES BY ALL MORTGAGE LENDERS ON NEW DWELLINGS UK 1997-2007 (£'000)
• TABLE 26 STOCK OF DWELLINGS (‘000) IN THE UK 1971-2006
• CHART 27 MIX OF STOCK OF DWELLINGS BY AGE 2006 - ENGLAND
• CHART 28 LATENT BROWN-FIELD LAND - WITH PLANNING PERMISSION 2001-2007 (HECTARES)
• TABLE 29 MAJOR HOUSEBUILDERS - % SCHEMES BUILT ON BROWN-FIELD SITES 2004-2007
• TABLE 30 AVERAGE VALUATIONS OF RESIDENTIAL BUILDING LAND WITH OUTLINE PLANNING PERMISSION IN ENGLAND 1997 - 2007 (£'000)
• TABLE 31 HOUSEHOLD TENURE DISTRIBUTION IN THE UK, 1997 TO 2007
• TABLE 32 NHBC REGISTERED BUILDERS BY NUMBER OF UNITS STARTED 1993-2007
• TABLE 33 COMPANY MARKET SHARES IN HOUSEBUILDING 2007
• CHART 34 TOP 3 COMPANIES SHARE OF PRIVATE HOUSEBUILDING MARKET 1997-2007 (%)
• TABLE 35 KEY INDICATORS FOR UK HOUSEBUILDING - TAYLOR WIMPEY PLC - 2007
• TABLE 36 KEY INDICATORS FOR UK HOUSEBUILDING - TAYLOR WIMPEY PLC (TURNOVER, PROFIT AND UNIT COMPLETIONS - 2000-2006)
• TABLE 37 KEY INDICATORS FOR UK HOUSEBUILDING - BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS PLC - 2007
• TABLE 38 KEY INDICATORS FOR UK HOUSEBUILDING - BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS PLC (TURNOVER, PROFIT AND UNIT COMPLETIONS 2000-2006)
• TABLE 39 KEY INDICATORS FOR UK HOUSEBUILDING - PERSIMMON PLC - 2007
• TABLE 40 KEY INDICATORS UK HOUSEBUILDING - PERSIMMON PLC 2007 (TURNOVER, PROFIT AND UNIT COMPLETIONS 2000-2006)
• TABLE 41 KEY INDICATORS UK HOUSEBUILDING - BELLWAY PLC - 2007 (TURNOVER, PROFIT AND UNIT COMPLETIONS 2000-2007)
• TABLE 42 KEY INDICATORS UK HOUSEBUILDING - REDROW GROUP - 2007 (TURNOVER, PROFIT AND UNIT COMPLETIONS 2000-2007)
• TABLE 43 KEY INDICATORS UK HOUSEBUILDING - GLADEDALE GROUP
• TABLE 44 KEY INDICATORS UK HOUSEBUILDING - MILLER HOMES - 2007 (TURNOVER, PROFIT AND UNIT COMPLETIONS 2000-2007)
• TABLE 45 KEY INDICATORS UK HOUSEBUILDING - BOVIS HOMES GROUP PLC - 2007 (TURNOVER, PROFIT AND UNIT COMPLETIONS 2000-2007)
• TABLE 46 KEY INDICTORS UK HOUSEBUILDING - BERKELEY GROUP PLC - 2007 (TURNOVER, PROFIT AND UNIT COMPLETIONS 2000-2007)
• TABLE 47 KEY INDICATORS UK HOUSEBUILDING - CREST NICHOLSON PLC - 2007 (TURNOVER, PROFIT AND UNIT COMPLETIONS 2000-2006)
• TABLE 48 KEY INDICATORS UK HOUSEBUILDING - MCCARTHY & STONE PLC (TURNOVER, PROFIT AND UNIT COMPLETIONS 2000-2006)
• TABLE 49 KEY INDICATORS UK HOUSEBUILDING - CALA GROUP PLC (TURNOVER, PROFIT AND UNIT COMPLETIONS 2000-2006)
• TABLE 50 KEY INDICATORS UK HOUSEBUILDING INDUSTRY COMPARISONS 5 YEAR ANALYSIS 2003 - 2007 (TURNOVER, PROFITS AND UNIT COMPLETIONS)
• CHART 51 CODE FOR SUSTAINABLE HOMES - CATEGORIES NECESSARY TO ACHIEVE CODE POINTS
• CHART 52 UK HOUSEBUILDING MARKET - MIX BY SECTOR AND BUILD METHOD - 2007 BY VOLUME