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SUMMARY
The danger with the flat-rate bundling of messaging services is that it both
reduces the opportunity for operators to add value and exposes them to the
risk of price-based competition." Windsor Holden
Person-to-person messaging has traditionally been the key driver of mobile
data services. Although the value of the person-to-person mobile messaging
market in Western Europe increased by 10% in 2005 to EUR18.4 billion, revenue
growth is slowing as adoption of SMS approaches saturation. At the same time,
take-up of new messaging services, such as MMS, mobile instant messaging (MIM)
and consumer mobile email, has been retarded by factors ranging from usability
to operator concerns that new messaging services will only cannibalise
existing revenue.
To maximise their revenue from mobile messaging services, operators and
application providers must understand the barriers to growth and develop
portfolios of services that complement - rather than compete with - each
other.
Person-to-Person Mobile Messaging in Western Europe: forecasts and analysis 2006- 11 answers your key questions:
- What are the drivers of adoption for new messaging services, such as MIM
and consumer mobile email?
- What are the barriers preventing mobile messaging services from
contributing significantly to total mobile service revenue? What needs to be
done to eliminate these barriers, and when are they likely to be eliminated,
given current market trends?
- What strategies must operators employ to sustain and enhance ARPU from
mobile messaging?
- What is the forecast value of the various types of mobile messaging
service in Western Europe for key countries, market segments and technology
generations?
The report provides detailed forecasts of adoption levels and rates, spend, overall ARPU, service ARPU, ASPU and revenue to 2011 for:
- SMS
- MMS
- mobile email
- MIM.
The forecasts cover France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden and the UK, as well
as Western Europe as a whole. Forecasts of subscriber numbers, adoption level
and revenue are split by market segment (residential contract, residential
prepaid, large corporate and SME) and technology generation (2G, 2.5G, 3G and
3.5G).
Who should read this report
- Mobile operators: understand the main barriers and drivers that
will shape the market for mobile messaging services, learn the value of the
market for the various types of mobile messaging service and gain insight into
current market trends. Understand how best to deploy and market new messaging
services.
- Vendors and application developers: discover where the
opportunities lie in mobile messaging services and gauge the size of the
market.
- Investment banks and consultants: understand how the mobile
messaging market is likely to affect the performance of mobile operators,
handset vendors and application providers. Understand the opportunities and
threats presented by mobile messaging and learn what will determine future
growth.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
- Executive summary
- Introduction and scope
- Market trends by service type
- Market trends by country
- Market forecasts by service type
- Determinants of future growth
- Actions
- Methodology
Figures and tables
- Figure 1: Distribution of active mobile subscribers in Western
Europe by country, December 2005
- Figure 2: Distribution of mobile messaging revenue in Western
Europe by service type, 2005
- Figure 3: SMS volume and average usage level in Western Europe,
2004- 5
- Figure 4: SMS usage versus spend per SMS in Western Europe, 2005
- Figure 5: SMS usage versus the relative cost of mobile voice in
Western Europe, 2005
- Figure 6: SMS usage versus GDP per capita in Western Europe, 2005
- Figure 7: Mobile messaging revenue in Western Europe by service
category, 2005- 11
- Figure 8: Split of mobile messaging revenue in Western Europe by
service category, 2005- 11
- Figures 9a- d: Adoption rate, revenue, ARPU and service ARPU for
SMS in Western Europe, 2005- 11
- Figures 10a- d: Adoption rate, revenue, ARPU and service ARPU for
MMS in Western Europe, 2005- 11
- Figures 11a- d: Adoption rate, revenue, ARPU and service ARPU for
mobile email in Western Europe, 2005- 11
- Figures 12a- d: Adoption rate, revenue, ARPU and service ARPU for
MIM in Western Europe, 2005- 11
- Figure 13: Factors that will determine the future growth of the
mobile messaging market and their relative priority for operators
- Figure 14: Example of methodology for forecasting ARPU
- Figure 15: Key inputs and outputs for mobile forecast model
- Figure 16: Key inputs and outputs for service-level components of
forecast model
- Table 1: Active mobile subscribers in Western Europe by country,
December 2005
- Table 2: KPIs for SMS, 2005
- Table 3: KPIs for MMS, 2005
- Table 4: KPIs for mobile email, 2005
- Table 5: KPIs for MIM, 2005
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