Biological, Chemical and Nuclear Terrorism: Potential Diagnostic and Treatment Costs to the U.S.

SUMMARY

INTRODUCTION

STUDY GOALS AND OBJECTIVES

The objectives of the study are to present a comprehensive look at themarkets and strategies for U.S. bioterrorism treatments. Markets are dividedinto the various types of bioterrorism agents that present a threat to the U.S.And other nations. The report is a deviation from the normal market reportspresented by BCC, Inc. This report is based largely on what might happen in theevent of a widespread bioterrorism attack on the United States in majormetropolitan areas. The report is directed to decision-makers in the variousbiologic, chemical and nuclear segments to present insight into those areas forcurrent and future development. The report could be especially useful to smalldeveloping biotech firms that want to enter the area of bioterrorism treatments.The report identifies the areas of bioterrorism treatment that have substantialcompetitors and products available but it also targets segments of bioterrorismwhere there are emergent needs and it identifies the potential revenues thatcould be generated should a bioterrorism attack occur. Each segment is brokendown into the cost per treatment and multiplied by the estimated number ofvictims and the number that would need to be treated in a given geographicalarea. This formula could be applied to any known population to extrapolatepotential revenues in the event of an outbreak.

REASONS FOR STUDY

This BBC study is presented to heighten the awareness of bioterrorism, torealize the magnitude of the threat, to explore the likelihood of attack, and toidentify pharmaceutical products currently available and products in developmentfor bioterrorism. The study analyzes the world of bioterrorists, examiningseveral bioterrorist organizations and bringing to the forefront, the realpossibility of bioterrorist actions by any one of these groups. It alsoaddresses the current products available to treat bioterrorism events. The studycovers the consequences of a future event, identifying impact on majormetropolitan areas and the costs involved. Because of the seriousness of thissubject and the real threat that was experienced in 2001, market participantshave responded to the call by the government for assistance and cooperation indealing with the bioterrorism threat. The study demonstrates how the government,academia, pharmaceutical industry participants and the general public areworking together to remain vigilant in this very important area that threatensthe entire world.

SCOPE OF STUDY

The report is designed to be a comprehensive business tool to provide anin-depth look at bioterrorism and the possible ramifications of a bioterroristattack. The geographic scope of the report is the United States. The reportidentifies the different areas of bioterrorism; gives a brief explanation ofeach area; cites the risk factors; calculates the incidence and mortality; andsites potential treatments in research and development, potential market sizeand market strategies. The report describes the industry in detail, itsrelationship to the healthcare industry, its participants, and its trends forthe future.

Within the Markets and Strategies for the U.S. Bioterrorism Treatments,segments are divided according to type:

• Biological weapons
• Chemical weapons
• Nuclear weapons

All segments are further broken down into specific entities. Each sub-segmentis described in detail. The entire segment is evaluated by identifying currentmarket size, identifying current and potential market drivers, forecasting for2001, 2005, and 2015.

METHODOLOGY AND INFORMATION SOURCES

The information and analysis presented in this BCC report are based onextensive first-hand interviews with primary executives, product managers,government experts and participating organization executives. Backgroundinformation was obtained from various government, business, medical journal andtrade magazines and interviews with disaster personnel. Key information frompublished literature was used to conduct interviews with over 50 industryparticipants to validate and obtain expert opinions on current and futuretrends. All information gathered was used to extrapolate figures for the 2005and 2015 markets in the event of a bioterrorism attack on major metropolitanareas. The figures are by no means exact but are derived from analystcalculations based on all information gathered.

All market data pertain to the U.S. market at the manufacturers' level. Dataare expressed in current U.S. dollars. The base year was 2001; there was nohistorical data because prior to 2001, there had been no bioterrorist attack ofthis magnitude. Forecast data are provided for 2005 and 2015 based on theproducts in development and the populations affected.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

• STUDY GOALS AND OBJECTIVES
• REASONS FOR STUDY
• SCOPE OF STUDY
• METHODOLOGY AND INFORMATION SOURCES
• ANALYST CREDENTIALS
• RELATED BCC PUBLICATIONS
• REPORTS
• MONTHLY NEWSLETTERS
• BCC ON-LINE SERVICES

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Summary Table: MARKET SIZE OF U.S. TREATMENTS OF THREE SELECTED HYPOTHETICALINCIDENTS BASED ON THE NEW YORK METROPOLITAN POPULATION AND POTENTIAL MASSCASUALTY RATES, THROUGH 2007

INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

• HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE OF BIOTERRORISM
• TYPES OF BIOTERRORISM
• BIOLOGICAL
• CHEMICAL
• NUCLEAR
• MEDICAL ASPECTS OF BIOLOGICAL WARFARE
• Table 1. BIOTERRORISM AGENTS CATEGORIES AS CLASSIFIED BY THE CENTER FORDISEASE CONTROL AND INFECTION
• Table 1. (CONTINUED)
• PREPAREDNESS
• PREPAREDNESS (CONTINUED)
• LEGISLATIVE AND REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT
• HOMELAND DEFENSE
• HOMELAND DEFENSE (CONTINUED)
• Homeland Defense (Continued)
• Homeland Defense (Continued)
• MARCH-IN THREAT
• ECONOMIC IMPACT OF BIOTERRORISM
• Table 2. COSTS OF HOSPITALIZATION AND OUTPATIENT VISITS FOLLOWING ABIOTERRORIST ATTACK
• Table 2. (CONTINUED)
• Table 3. COSTS OF PROPHYLAXIS FOLLOWING A BIOTERRORIST ATTACK
• Table 3. (CONTINUED)
• Table 4. COSTS (IN MILLIONS) OF BIOTERRORIST ATTACK WITH NO POSTEXPOSUREPROPHYLAXIS
• Table 4. (CONTINUED)

INTERNATIONAL BIOTERRORISM AND TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS

• ABU SAYYAF
• AL-GAMA'A AL-ISLAMIYYAH
• AL-QAEDA
• AL-QAEDA (CONTINUED)
• AL-QAEDA (CONTINUED)
• AL-QAEDA (CONTINUED)
• AL-QAEDA (CONTINUED)
• AL-QAEDA (CONTINUED)
• AL-QAEDA (CONTINUED)
• ARMATA CORSA
• GIA
• AUM
• THE BASQUE FATHERLAND AND LIBERTY GROUP
• THE BASQUE FATHERLAND AND LIBERTY GROUP (CONTINUED)
• THE DEMOCRATIC FRONT FOR LIBERATION OF PALESTINE (DFLP)
• THE DEMOCRATIC FRONT FOR LIBERATION OF PALESTINE (CONTINUED)
• ABU NIDAL ORGANIZATION (ANO)
• FATAH-RC
• TANZIM
• TANZIM (CONTINUED)
• TANZIM (CONTINUED)
• TANZIM (CONTINUED)
• FORCE 17
• FORCE 17 (CONTINUED)
• FORCE 17 (CONTINUED)
• HAMAS
• HAMAS (CONTINUED)
• HAMAS (CONTINUED)
• HUM
• HUM (CONTINUED)
• HIZBALLAH
• HIZBALLAH (CONTINUED)
• THE HIZB-UL MUJAHEDIN
• THE HIZB-UL MUJAHEDIN (CONTINUED)
• IRA
• JAMAAT UL-FUQRA
• JAPANESE RED ARMY
• JIHAD
• JIHAD (CONTINUED)
• KACH
• KURDISTAN WORKER'S PARTY
• KURDISTAN WORKER'S PARTY (CONTINUED)
• KURDISTAN WORKER'S PARTY (CONTINUED)
• KURDISTAN WORKER'S PARTY (CONTINUED)
• KURDISTAN WORKER'S PARTY (CONTINUED)
• KURDISTAN WORKER'S PARTY (CONTINUED)
• KURDISTAN WORKER'S PARTY (CONTINUED)
• LASHKAR-E-TOIBA
• LASHKAR-E-TOIBA (CONTINUED)
• LAUTARO YOUTH MOVEMENT (MJL)
• LTTE
• LOYALIST VOLUNTEER FORCE
• MANUEL RODRIQUEZ PATRIOTIC FRONT
• MUJAHEDIN-E KHALQ ORGANIZATION
• NATIONAL LIBERATION ARMY (ELN) COLOMBIA
• NATIONAL LIBERATION FRONT OF CORSICA (FLNC)
• NEW PEOPLE'S ARMY
• POPULAR LIBERATION FRONT
• POPULAR LIBERATION FRONT (CONTINUED)
• POPULAR LIBERATION FRONT (CONTINUED)
• PALESTINIAN ISLAMIC JIHAD
• PALESTINIAN ISLAMIC JIHAD (CONTINUED)
• KHMER ROUGE
• POPULAR FRONT FOR THE LIBERATION OF PALESTINE - GENERAL COMMAND
• POPULAR FRONT FOR THE LIBERATION OF PALESTINE -....(CONTINUED)
• POPULAR FRONT FOR THE LIBERATION OF PALESTINE -....(CONTINUED)
• PALESTINIAN POPULAR STRUGGLE FRONT
• QIBLA
• REAL IRA
• RED ARMY FACTION (RAF)
• RED ARMY FACTION (RAF) (CONTINUED)
• BRIGATE ROSSE (RED BRIGADE)
• REVOLUTIONARY ORGANIZATION 17 NOVEMBER
• SIPAH-E-SAHABA PAKISTAN (SSP)
• SIPAH-E-SAHABA PAKISTAN (SSP) (CONTINUED)
• SIPAH-E-SAHABA PAKISTAN (SSP) (CONTINUED)
• TUPAC AMARU
• Table 5. TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS WORLDWIDE
• Table 5. (CONTINUED)
• Table 5. (CONTINUED)

BIOLOGICAL AGENTS

• INTRODUCTION
• TYPES OF BIOLOGICAL AGENTS
• ANTHRAX
• Treatment
• BRUCELLOSIS
• Treatment
• EBOLA
• Treatment
• HEMORRHAGIC FEVERS
• Treatment
• PLAGUE
• Treatment
• Q FEVER
• Treatment
• SMALLPOX
• Treatment
• TULAREMIA
• Treatment
• TOXIC AGENTS
• Botulism
• Treatment
• Ricin Toxin
• Treatment
• OTHERS
• Others (Continued)
• Others (Continued)
• Others (Continued)
• Others (Continued)
• Others (Continued)
• MARKET SIZE AND GROWTH
• Table 6. MARKET SIZE OF U.S. TREATMENTS OF ANTHRAX BASED ON THE TOP THREEU.S. METROPOLITAN POPULATIONS AND POTENTIAL MASS CASUALTY RATES, THROUGH2012
• Table 7. MARKET SIZE OF U.S. TREATMENTS OF BRUCELLOSIS BASED ON THE TOPTHREE U.S. METROPOLITAN POPULATIONS AND POTENTIAL MASS CASUALTY RATES,THROUGH 2012
• Table 7. (CONTINUED)
• Table 8. MARKET SIZE OF U.S. TREATMENTS OF HEMMORRHAGIC FEVER BASED ON THETOP THREE U.S. METROPOLITAN POPULATIONS AND POTENTIAL MASS CASUALTY RATES,THROUGH 2012
• Table 9. MARKET SIZE OF U.S. TREATMENTS OF PLAGUE BASED ON THE TOP THREEU.S. METROPOLITAN POPULATIONS AND POTENTIAL MASS CASUALTY RATES, THROUGH2012
• Table 9. (CONTINUED)
• Table 10. MARKET SIZE OF U.S. TREATMENTS OF Q-FEVER BASED ON THE TOP THREEU.S. METROPOLITAN POPULATIONS AND POTENTIAL MASS CASUALTY RATES, THROUGH2012
• Table 10. (CONTINUED)
• Table 11. MARKET SIZE OF U.S. TREATMENTS OF SMALLPOX BASED ON THE TOPTHREE U.S. METROPOLITAN POPULATIONS AND POTENTIAL MASS CASUALTY RATES,THROUGH 2012
• Table 12. MARKET SIZE OF U.S. TREATMENTS OF TULAREMIA BASED ON THE TOPTHREE U.S. METROPOLITAN POPULATIONS AND POTENTIAL MASS CASUALTY RATES,THROUGH 2012
• COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS
• Table 13. BIOLOGICAL AGENTS MANUFACTURER MARKET SHARE BY REVENUES, 2001
• Figure 1. BIOLOGICAL AGENTS MANUFACTURER MARKET SHARE BY REVENUES, 2001
• MARKET ANALYSIS

CHEMICAL AGENTS

• INTRODUCTION
• TYPES OF CHEMICAL AGENTS
• BLISTER AGENTS
• BLOOD AGENTS
• CHOKING AGENTS
• NERVE AGENTS
• MARKET SIZE AND GROWTH
• Table 14. MARKET SIZE OF U.S. TREATMENTS OF BLISTER AGENTS BASED ON THETOP THREE U.S. METROPOLITAN POPULATIONS AND POTENTIAL MASS CASUALTY RATES,THROUGH 2012
• Table 14. (CONTINUED)
• Table 15. MARKET SIZE OF U.S. TREATMENTS OF BLOOD AGENTS BASED ON THE TOPTHREE U.S. METROPOLITAN POPULATIONS AND POTENTIAL MASS CASUALTY RATES,THROUGH 2012
• Table 15. (CONTINUED)
• Table 16. MARKET SIZE OF U.S. TREATMENTS OF NERVE AGENTS BASED ON THE TOPTHREE U.S. METROPOLITAN POPULATIONS AND POTENTIAL MASS CASUALTY RATES,THROUGH 2012
• Table 16. (CONTINUED)

NUCLEAR AGENTS

• INTRODUCTION
  • INTRODUCTION (CONTINUED)
  • INTRODUCTION (CONTINUED)
• CLASSES OF RADIATION
  • CLASSES OF RADIATION (CONTINUED)
  • CLASSES OF RADIATION (CONTINUED)
  • CLASSES OF RADIATION CONTINUED)
  • CLASSES OF RADIATION CONTINUED)
  • CLASSES OF RADIATION CONTINUED)
  • CLASSES OF RADIATION CONTINUED)
  • CLASSES OF RADIATION CONTINUED)
  • CLASSES OF RADIATION CONTINUED)
  • CLASSES OF RADIATION CONTINUED)
• MARKET SIZE AND GROWTH
• Table 17. MARKET SIZE OF U.S. TREATMENTS OF NUCLEAR AGENTS BASED ON THETOP THREE U.S. METROPOLITAN POPULATIONS AND POTENTIAL MASS CASUALTY RATES,THROUGH 2012

BIOTERRORISM TREATMENT MARKET ANALYSIS

• Table 18. TREATMENT COSTS OF BIOLOGICAL, CHEMICAL AND NUCLEAR TERRORISM,BASED ON U.S. TREATMENT, 2002 ($)
• INDUSTRY PARTICIPANTS BY PRODUCT TYPE
• Table 19. INDUSTRY PARTICIPANTS BY PRODUCT TYPE
• Table 19. (CONTINUED)
• STRATEGIES BASED ON PRODUCTS
  • STRATEGIES BASED ON PRODUCTS (CONTINUED)
  • STRATEGIES BASED ON PRODUCTS (CONTINUED)
  • STRATEGIES BASED ON PRODUCTS (CONTINUED)
  • STRATEGIES BASED ON PRODUCTS (CONTINUED)

PHARMACEUTICAL AND BIOTECHNOLOGY COMPANY PROFILES

• ABGENIX, INC
• ACAMBIS PLC
• ADVANCED BIOSYSTEMS
• AVENTIS PASTEUR
• BAXTER INTERNATIONAL, INC.
• BAYER CORPORATION
• BIOPORT CORPORATION
• CORIXA CORPORATION
• CRUCELL N.V.
• GILEAD SCIENCES, INC.
• PFIZER, INC.
• PHARMACIA CORPORATION
• POWDERJECT PHARMACEUTICALS PLC
• VICAL, INC.
• WYETH

GOVERNMENT AND HEALTH AGENCY PROFILES

• CENTERS FOR DISEASE CONTROL AND PREVENTION
• FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION/NATIONAL CENTER FOR TOXICOLOGICAL RESEARCH
• DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES
• NATIONAL INSTITUTES OF HEALTH
• OFFICE OF HOMELAND SECURITY
• TASK FORCE ON EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS

APPENDIX

• U.S. POPULATION GROWTH
• Table 20. POPULATION 2001, 2005, AND 2015 (THOUSANDS)
• COMPANY LIST
• Table 21. COMPANY LIST
• Table 21. (CONTINUED)
• Table 21. (CONTINUED)
• Table 21. (CONTINUED)
• Table 21. (CONTINUED)
• Table 21. (CONTINUED)

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1 BIOTERRORISM AGENTS CATEGORIES AS CLASSIFIED BY THE CENTER FORDISEASE CONTROL AND INFECTION

Table 2 COSTS OF HOSPITALIZATION AND OUTPATIENT VISITS FOLLOWING ABIOTERRORIST ATTACK

Table 3 COSTS OF PROPHYLAXIS FOLLOWING A BIOTERRORIST ATTACK

Table 4 COSTS (IN MILLIONS) OF BIOTERRORIST ATTACK WITH NO POSTEXPOSUREPROPHYLAXIS

Table 5 TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS WORLDWIDE

Table 6 MARKET SIZE OF U.S. TREATMENTS OF ANTHRAX BASED ON THE TOP THREEU.S. METROPOLITAN POPULATIONS AND POTENTIAL MASS CASUALTY RATES, THROUGH2012

Table 7 MARKET SIZE OF U.S. TREATMENTS OF BRUCELLOSIS BASED ON THE TOPTHREE U.S. METROPOLITAN POPULATIONS AND POTENTIAL MASS CASUALTY RATES,THROUGH 2012

Table 8 MARKET SIZE OF U.S. TREATMENTS OF HEMMORRHAGIC FEVER BASED ON THETOP THREE U.S. METROPOLITAN POPULATIONS AND POTENTIAL MASS CASUALTY RATES,THROUGH 2012

Table 9 MARKET SIZE OF U.S. TREATMENTS OF PLAGUE BASED ON THE TOP THREEU.S. METROPOLITAN POPULATIONS AND POTENTIAL MASS CASUALTY RATES, THROUGH2012

Table 10 MARKET SIZE OF U.S. TREATMENTS OF Q-FEVER BASED ON THE TOP THREEU.S. METROPOLITAN POPULATIONS AND POTENTIAL MASS CASUALTY RATES, THROUGH2012

Table 11 MARKET SIZE OF U.S. TREATMENTS OF SMALLPOX BASED ON THE TOP THREEU.S. METROPOLITAN POPULATIONS AND POTENTIAL MASS CASUALTY RATES, THROUGH2012

Table 12 MARKET SIZE OF U.S. TREATMENTS OF TULAREMIA BASED ON THE TOPTHREE U.S. METROPOLITAN POPULATIONS AND POTENTIAL MASS CASUALTY RATES,THROUGH 2012

Table 13 BIOLOGICAL AGENTS MANUFACTURER MARKET SHARE BY REVENUES, 2001

Table 14 MARKET SIZE OF U.S. TREATMENTS OF BLISTER AGENTS BASED ON THE TOPTHREE U.S. METROPOLITAN POPULATIONS AND POTENTIAL MASS CASUALTY RATES,THROUGH 2012

Table 15 MARKET SIZE OF U.S. TREATMENTS OF BLOOD AGENTS BASED ON THE TOPTHREE U.S. METROPOLITAN POPULATIONS AND POTENTIAL MASS CASUALTY RATES,THROUGH 2012

Table 16 MARKET SIZE OF U.S. TREATMENTS OF NERVE AGENTS BASED ON THE TOPTHREE U.S. METROPOLITAN POPULATIONS AND POTENTIAL MASS CASUALTY RATES,THROUGH 2012

Table 17 MARKET SIZE OF U.S. TREATMENTS OF NUCLEAR AGENTS BASED ON THE TOPTHREE U.S. METROPOLITAN POPULATIONS AND POTENTIAL MASS CASUALTY RATES,THROUGH 2012

Table 18 TREATMENT COSTS OF BIOLOGICAL, CHEMICAL AND NUCLEAR TERRORISM,BASED ON U.S. TREATMENT, 2002 ($)

Table 19 INDUSTRY PARTICIPANTS BY PRODUCT TYPE

Table 20 POPULATION 2001, 2005, AND 2015 (THOUSANDS)

Table 21 COMPANY LIST

LIST OF FIGURES