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SUMMARY
Abstract
INTRODUCTION
PVs date back to the 1950s and the advent of the space program, but the
initial concerted efforts to fully develop this technology for industry and
consumer use began during the oil embargoes of the 1970s. The eventual
stabilization of oil prices, however, had a dampening effect on investment,
tax credits, and government funding for research and development (R&D).
Despite these changes, the development of PV technology and materials
continued, and in the late 1990s, R&D funding, cist-shared programs, and
industry activity once again increased. Now, with the increasing demand for
energy and the rising prices of fossil fuels, PV again offers assistance in
meeting energy demands.
Research examined this industry in a 2005 report, EGY014E-Photovoltaics:
Markets and Technologies. Since the demand for energy is growing at
unprecedented levels, and global climate change is demanding the development
of alternatives to fossil fuels, we were interested in revisiting the state of
PV technology, analyzing the major growth factors, and projecting the PV
industry's growth potential.
SCOPE OF STUDY
This report contains:
- Descriptions of various types of photovoltaics (PV) technologies including
monocrystalline silicon, multicrystalline silicon, thin films (e.g. amorphous
silicon, cadmium telluride, copper indium diselenide) and compound
semiconductor materials (e.g. gallium arsenide)
- Discussion of emerging approaches such as nanostructured films,
dye-sensitized solar cells, and organic technologies
- The current market status for PV, trends and forecasts for growth over the
next 6 years
- Technological issues including the latest trends and a thorough patent
analysis
- Analysis of the industry's manufacturing capacity and consumption by
various regional markets.
METHODOLOGY
Research presents an analysis for each PV technology of the number of cells as
measured in megawatts shipped in 2007. Our estimated values are what
manufacturers have paid in undepreciated dollars. Then, based on our surveys,
we analyze the potential market for each technology, and forecast shipments
for 2008 and 2013. We also analyze the cost involved in manufacturing the
cells and modules, and then present an estimated value of shipments over the
forecast period.
INFORMATION SOURCES
Research presents an analysis for each PV technology of the number of cells as
measured in megawatts shipped in 2007. Our estimated values are what
manufacturers have paid in undepreciated dollars. Then, based on our surveys,
we analyze the potential market for each technology, and forecast shipments
for 2008 and 2013. We also analyze the cost involved in manufacturing the
cells and modules, and then present an estimated value of shipments over the
forecast period.
ANALYST CREDENTIALS
After a successful career at IBM, Robert H. Moran has written extensively as a
research analyst and editor at BCC Research. The topics of his reports range
from various deposition technologies to electronic displays, solar energy, and
solid state lighting. Mr. Moran has been writing for BCC Research for more
than 20 years. He earned a B.S. degree in Economics from the University of
Pennsylvania.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Table of Contents
- Photovoltaics: Global Markets and Technologies
- Chapter 1 - SUMMARY
- Summary Table: GLOBAL PHOTOVOLTAIC MARKET: MODULE SHIPMENTS AND
MATERIALS, THROUGH 2013 (MEGAWATTS, MILLIONS)
- Summary Figure: GLOBAL PHOTOVOLTAIC MARKET: MODULE SHIPMENTS AND
MATERIALS, 2007 AND 2013 ($ MILLIONS)
- Chapter 2 - OVERVIEW
- BACKGROUND
- CURRENT ENVIRONMENT
- Table 1 THE GLOBAL ENERGY PROBLEM
- RISING DEMAND
- CLIMATE CHANGE
- INADEQUATE RESERVES
- Carbon Sequestration
- Nuclear Power
- THE NEED FOR SOLAR POWER
- Table 2 ADVANTAGES OF SOLAR ENERGY
- Table 3 MAJOR PHOTOVOLTAIC TECHNOLOGIES
- BALANCE OF SYSTEMS
- Module Frames
- Interconnections
- Encapsulation
- PV APPLICATIONS
- Table 4 KEY APPLICATIONS OF PHOTOVOLTAICS
- Chapter 3 - PHOTOVOLTAIC INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
- LEADING PHOTOVOLTAIC MANUFACTURERS
- Table 5 LEADING MANUFACTURERS OF PV CELLS, MODULES, AND SYSTEMS
- Table 5 (CONTINUED)
- Table 5 (CONTINUED)
- PV MANUFACTURING BY REGION
- Table 6 GLOBAL SHARES OF PV PRODUCTION BY REGION 2007-2013 (%)
- Figure 1 GLOBAL SHARES OF PV PRODUCTION BY REGION, 2007 AND 2013 (%)
- Table 7 GLOBAL CONSUMPTION OF PV CELLS BY REGION 2007-2013 (%)
- Figure 2 GLOBAL CONSUMPTION OF PV CELLS BY REGION, 2007 AND 2013 (%)
- Table 8 ESTIMATED GLOBAL PV PRODUCTION BY COMPANY, 2007 (MEGAWATTS)
- MANUFACTURING AND DEVELOPING ADVANCED PV TECHNOLOGY
- Table 9 SELECTED ORGANIZATIONS DEVELOPING SOLAR CELLS AND RELATED
TECHNOLOGIES
- Table 9 (CONTINUED)
- COMPANY PROFILES
- ADVENT SOLAR INC., ALBUQUERQUE, NM
- AVANCIS GMBH, TORGAU, GERMANY
- AVANCIS GMBH & CO. KG
- BP SOLAR, FREDERICK, MD
- BP SOLAR US
- CHINA SUNERGY CO. LTD., NANJING, CHINA
- ENERGY PHOTOVOLTAICS INC., ROBBINSVILLE, NJ
- EVERGREEN SOLAR, MARLBORO, MA
- FIRST SOLAR LLC, PHOENIX, AZ
- ISOFTON, MADRID, SPAIN
- KYOCERA CORPORATION, KYOTO, JAPAN
- NANOSOLAR, PALO ALTO, CA
- Q-CELLS, THALHEIM, GERMANY
- SCHOTT SOLAR INC., MAINZ, GERMANY
- SHARP CORPORATION, OSAKA, JAPAN
- SUNTECH, JIANSU PROVINCE, CHINA
- SUNPOWER CORP., SAN JOSE, CA
- Chapter 4 - PHOTOVOLTAIC TECHNOLOGY
- THE PV EFFECT
- SILICON AND THE PV EFFECT
- Creating Charge Carriers
- Forming the Electric Field
- Driving the Charge Carriers
- Energy Band Gaps
- Table 10 IMPORTANCE OF SELECTING MATERIALS WITH PROPER BAND GAP ENERGY
- MONOCRYSTALLINE SILICON TECHNOLOGY
- MONOCRYSTALLINE SILICON TECHNOLOGY (CONTINUED)
- PRODUCING A MONOCRYSTALLINE SOLAR CELL
- Table 11 ELEMENTS COMMON TO ALL PV CELLS
- The Importance of Electrical Contacts
- Table 12 MAJOR PARAMETERS FOR SOLAR CELL MATERIALS
- MULTICRYSTALLINE SOLAR CELLS
- MANUFACTURING MULTICRYSTALLINE CELLS
- Cast Process
- Ribbon Crystal Silicon
- The Evergreen Solar Approach
- THIN FILM SOLAR CELLS
- Table 13 OBJECTIVES OF THIN FILM SOLAR
- AMORPHOUS SILICON
- Properties of Amorphous Silicon
- Table 14 MAJOR ADVANTAGES OF AMORPHOUS SILICON
- Early Problems
- Solution Efforts
- Table 15 AMORPHOUS SILICON R&D ACTIVITIES
- Table 16 TYPICAL STRUCTURE OF A TRIPLE JUNCTION A-SI CELL
- Table 17 CELL STRUCTURE OF POLYCRYSTALLINE THIN FILM
- Fabricating CIS Cells
- CIS R&D
- CADMIUM TELLURIDE CELLS
- Manufacturing Cadmium Telluride Cells
- Research Activities
- Table 18 RESEARCH ACTIVITIES FOR CADMIUM TELLURIDE
- SOLAR CELL EFFICIENCIES
- PHOTOVOLTAIC CONVERSION EFFICIENCY DEFINED
- TESTING DEVICE PERFORMANCE
- Typical Procedures
- Spectral Responsivity Systems
- Table 19 SYSTEMS FOR MEASURING SPECTRAL RESPONSE
- Features and Advantages
- Current Versus Voltage Systems
- Table 20 INSTRUMENTS FOR CELL I-V MEASUREMENTS
- Features and Advantages of I-V Systems
- Standard Outdoor Measurement Systems
- TRADITIONAL SILICON AND THIN FILM SOLAR CELL EFFICIENCIES
- Table 21 TYPICAL AND MAXIMUM CELL CONVERSION EFFICIENCIES FOR THE
TRADITIONAL PV MATERIALS
- Single Solar Cell Efficiency Limit
- ADDITIONAL MATERIALS AND MODULE STRUCTURES
- GALLIUM ARSENIDE SOLAR CELLS
- Table 22 KEY PROPERTIES OF GALLIUM ARSENIDE
- MULTIJUNCTION DEVICES
- Advantages of Multijunction Devices
- Table 23 MAJOR BENEFITS OF MULTIJUNCTION
- Triple Junction Cell Design
- Table 24 COMPOSITION AND PROJECTED EFFICIENCIES OF A TRIPLE JUNCTION CELL
- Table 25 TECHNICAL CHARACTERITICS OF FLAT PLATE VERSUS SOLAR
CONCENTRATORS
- BALANCE OF SYSTEMS
- MOUNTING STRUCTURES
- STORAGE DEVICES
- POWER CONDITIONERS
- Chapter 5 - EMERGING PV TECHNOLOGIES
- OBJECTIVES OF EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES
- Table 26 KEY GOALS OF EMERGING PV TECHNOLOGIES
- Table 27 KEY ADVANTAGES OF BACK CONTACT CELL
- DYE-SENSITIZED CELLS
- PROPERTIES OF THE DYE-SENSITIZED CELL
- Table 28 SCHEMATIC OF DYE-SENSITIZED CELL
- CELL EFFICIENCIES
- Classification
- Fabrication
- ADVATAGES OF DYE-SENSITIZED CELLS
- Table 29 KEY BENEFITS OF DYE-SENSITIZED CELLS
- QUANTUM DOTS FOR SOLAR CELLS
- PROPERTIES
- Synthesis of Quantum Dots
- Table 30 METHODS OF SYNTHESIZING QUANTUM DOTS
- ORGANIC QD-BASED SOLAR CELLS
- ADVANTAGES OF QD SOLAR CELLS
- Table 31 ADVANTAGES OF COLLOIDAL QDS OVER ORGANIC DYES USED IN PV CELLS
- FLEXIBLE VERSUS RIGID SUBSTRATES
- Table 32 ADVANTAGES OF FLEXIBLE POLYMER-BASED CELLS OVER CONVENTIONAL
SOLAR CELL DESIGNS
- Table 33 INORGANICS USED TO FORM NANOSTRUCTURES
- ORGANIC PHOTOVOLTAICS
- PERSPECTIVE OF EMERGING AND TRADITIONAL TECHNOLOGIES
- Table 34 PROSPECTS FOR EMERGING SOLAR TECHNOLOGIES
- CONTINUING R&D ON TRADITIONAL PHOTOVOLTAICS
- Chapter 6 - PATENT ANALYSIS
- PATENTS BY TECHNICAL CATEGORY
- Table 35 PHOTOVOLTAIC PATENTS BY TECHNOLOGY, 2005
- Table 36 PHOTOVOLTAIC PATENTS BY GLOBAL REGION, 2005-2007
- Table 37 ASSIGNEES WITH THREE OR MORE PATENTS, 2005-2007
- PATENT ABSTRACTS
- MONOLITHIC INTEGRATION OF CYLINDRICAL SOLAR CELLS
- FABRICATING INTERCONNECTED PHOTOVOLTAIC CELLS
- NANOSTRUCTURE AND NANOCOMPOSITE BASED COMPOSITIONS AND PHOTOVOLTAIC
DEVICES
- PROCESS FOR MANUFACTURING A SOLAR CELL
- JUNCTION FORMATION FOR CIGS PHOTOVOLTAIC DEVICES
- MULTIJUNCTION PV CELL WITH BUFFER LAYERS FOR GROWING BORON COMPOUNDS
- USE OF DOPED SILICON DIOXIDE IN THE FABRICATION OF SOLAR CELLS
- Chapter 7 - PHOTOVOLTAIC INDUSTRY COMPETITIVENESS
- U.S. GOVERNMENT PV SUPPORT
- THE SOLAR AMERICA (SAI) INITIATIVE
- Table 38 MAJOR BENEFITS OF THE SAI
- NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY (NREL)
- Primary Research Projects
- Table 39 PRIMARY NREL RESEARCH
- The U.S. PV Community
- U.S. PV Funding
- Table 40 U.S. GOVERNMENT FUNDING OF PHOTOVOLTAICS, 1998-2007
- INTERNATIONAL PHOTOVOLTAICS SUPPORT
- EUROPEAN ACTIVITIES
- Photovoltaic Technology Research Advisory Council (PV-TRAC)
- Implementing the Vision
- Table 41 OBJECTIVES OF THE PV TECHNOLOGY PLATFORM
- GERMANY'S NATIONAL PROGRAM
- Table 42 RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT CONCEPTS OF THE GERMAN PHOTOVOLTAICS
PROGRAM
- EUROPEAN PHOTOVOLTAIC INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION
- Table 43 BENEFITS OF MEMBERSHIP IN THE EUROPAN PHOTOVOLTAIC INDUSTRY
ASSOCIATION
- Table 44 RESASONS FOR JAPANESE INVESTMENT
- Table 45 QUALIFICATIONS FOR JAPANESE PV SUBSIDIES
- OTHER INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT
- Table 46 ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INTERNATIONAL PV SUPPORT
- STANDARDS AND SAFETY
- INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS EFFORTS
- The Global Approval Program (PV GAP)
- Table 47 STANDARDS AND CONFORMITY ASSESSMENT
- PV ECONOMICS AND COSTS
- SOLAR REBATES AND INCENTIVES
- Table 48 BASIC GLOBAL PV REBATES AND INCENTIVES
- THE U.S. EXAMPLE
- Federal and State PV Incentives
- PV TECHNOLOGY
- BIPV A KILLER APP?
- CONTINUING GROWTH OF THIN FILM AND ORGANIC PRODUCTS
- PV MARKET GROWTH FACTORS
- DRIVING FORCES
- IMPACT OF MARKET GROWTH FACTORS
- Table 49 IMPACT OF CONTRIBUTING FACTORS ON PV GROWTH
- Chapter 8 - PV MARKETS
- PV MARKET CHARACTERISTICS
- PV DEMAND CONTINUES TO GROW
- Table 50 GLOBAL PHOTOVOLTAIC CELL/MODULE SHIPMENTS, 2001-2006 (MEGAWATTS)
- Figure 3 GLOBAL PV CELL/MODULE SHIPMENTS, 2001-2007
- A CONSTANTLY CHANGING INDUSTRY
- Impact of Silicon Shortage
- Table 51 BASIC 2006 SILICON USAGE
- Figure 4 SILICON USAGE BY APPLICATION, 2006 (%)
- More External Influence on Manufacturing Methods
- The Push for New Technologies
- INCREASED UTILITY INVOLVEMENT
- Table 52 CHALLENGES FACING UTILITIES
- Feed-in Tariffs
- Net Metering
- Solar Electric Power Association
- Table 53 MISSION OF THE SOLAR ELECTRIC POWER ASSOCIATION
- INCREASING GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND
- Growing Global Electric Power Generation
- Table 54 GLOBAL ELECTRIC POWER GENERATION, THROUGH 2015 (BILLIONS
KILOWATTHOURS)
- PV COST REDUCTION IS A MUST
- Table 55 AVERAGE INSTALLED PHOTOVOLTAIC EFFICIENCIES AND COSTS, 1995-2020
- Cost Competitive Aspects
- Future Implications
- SUMMARY OF PV MARKET CHARACTERISTICS
- Table 56 SUMMARY OF PV MARKET CHARACTRISTICS
- CURRENT/EMERGING PV APPLICATIONS
- GRID-CONNECTED APPLICATIONS
- Table 57 BENEFITS OF DISTRIBUTED GENERATION
- Table 58 KEY ADVANTAGES OF ROOFTOP SYSTEMS
- Building Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV)
- Table 59 TYPICAL BIPV SYSTEM
- Types of BIPV Systems
- Other Exterior Options
- Table 60 MAJOR ADVANTAGES OF BIPV
- UTILITY APPLICATIONS
- Utility Transmission and Distribution
- Utility Scale PV Power
- Table 61 BENEFITS OF BUILDING A UTILITY-SCALE PV PLANT
- Table 62 TYPES OF OFF-GRID RESIDENTIAL PV SYSTEMS
- Off-Grid Industrialized or Residential PV with Generators
- Off-Grid Communication Systems
- Table 63 SOME COMMUNICATIONS SYSTEMS
- Table 64 ESTIMATED USES OF PV ON NATIONAL PARK LANDS (%)
- Remote Village Electrification
- Table 65 MAJOR ADVANTAGES OF OFF-GRID VILLAGE ELECTRIFICATION
- SPACE APPLICATIONS
- Table 66 MAJOR ADVANTAGES OF PV IN
- Multijunction and Concentrator Cells
- NEW APPLICATIONS
- Advantages of Flexibility
- PHOTOVOLTAIC BUYING DECISIONS
- Table 67 MAJOR FACTORS IN PV SYSTEM BUYING DECISIONS (%)
- PV MARKET FORCES
- POSITIVE FACTORS
- Positive Factors (Continued)
- LIMITING FACTORS
- PHOTOVOLTAIC MARKET PROJECTIONS
- Table 68 INSTALLATIONS OF GRID-CONNECTED RESIDENTIAL SYSTEMS IN JAPAN
AND GERMANY, THROUGH 2007 (MEGAWATTS)
- Table 69 CURRENT FACTS IMPACTING PV
- Table 70 FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS-GROWTH OF PV CELLS
- MARKET FORECASTS
- MONOCRYSTALLINE SILICON TECHNOLOGY
- Key Factors in Our Projections
- Table 71 FORECAST-GLOBAL SHIPMENTS OF MONOCRYSTALLINE SILICON
CELLS/MODULES, THROUGH 2013 (MEGAWATTS)
- Figure 5 GLOBAL SHIPMENTS OF MONCRYSTALLINE SOLAR CELLS, 2007-2013
(MEGAWATTS)
- MULTICRYSTALLINE SILICON TECHNOLOGY
- Major Factors in the Projection
- Table 72 FORECAST-GLOBAL SHIPMENTS OF MULTICRYSTALLINE SILICON SOLAR
CELLS THROUGH 2013 (MEGAWATTS)
- Figure 6 GLOBAL SHIPMENTS OF MULTICRYSTALLINE SOLAR, CELLS 2007-2013
(MEGAWATTS)
- THIN FILM TECHNOLOGY
- Flexible Cells is a Key Issue
- Other Thin Film Considerations
- Amorphous Silicon
- Cadmium Telluride
- Copper Indium Diselenide (CIS)
- Compound Semiconductor Materials
- Table 73 FORECAST-GLOBAL SHIPMENTS OF THIN FILM SOLAR CELLS BY TYPE,
THROUGH 2013 (MEGAWATTS)
- Figure 7 GLOBAL SHIPMENTS OF THIN FILMS PV CELLS BY TYPE, 2007-2013
(MEGAWATTS)
- Table 74 FORECAST-GLOBAL SHIPMENTS OF PV CELLS MADE FROM EMERGING
TECHNOLOGIES, THROUGH 2013 (MEGAWATTS)
- Figure 8 GLOBAL SHIPMENTS OF PV CELLS MADE FROM EMERGING TECHNOLOGY,
2007-2013 (MEGAWATTS)
- Table 75 GLOBAL SHIPMENTS OF PHOTOVOLTAIC CELLS BY MAJOR TECHNOLOGY,
THROUGH 2013 (MEGAWATTS)
- Figure 9 GLOBAL SHIPMENTS OF PHOTOVOLTAIC CELLS BY TECHNOLOGY, 2007-2013
(MEGAWATTS)
- Table 76 GLOBAL SHARES OF CELL/MODULE SHIPMENTS BY MAJOR TECHNOLOGY,
2007-2013 (%)
- Figure 10 GLOBAL SHARES OF CELL/MODULE SHIPMENTS BY MAJOR TECHNOLOGY,
2007-2013 (%)
- Table 77 GLOBAL MARKET VALUE OF CELL/MODULE SHIPMENTS THROUGH 2013
(MEGAWATTS, AVERAGE PRICE $ MILLIONS)
- SHIPMENTS OF PV MODULES BY APPLICATION
- Table 78 GLOBAL SHIPMENTS OF PV CELLS BY APPLICATION THROUGH 2013
(MEGAWATTS)
- Figure 11 GLOBAL SHIPMENTS OF PV CELLS BY APPLICATION, 2007-2013
(MEGAWATTS)
- MATERIALS PROJECTIONS
- MATERIAL CLASSIFICATION
- COST BASIS
- VALUE OF PV MATERIALS
- Table 79 GLOBAL MARKET FOR PHOTOVOLTAIC CELL/MODULE MATERIALS BY TYPE,
THROUGH 2013 ($ MILLIONS)
- Figure 12 GLOBAL MARKET FOR PHOTOVOLTAIC CELL/MODULE MATERIALS BY TYPE,
2007-2013 ($ MILLIONS)
- Chapter 9 - APPENDIX I CONCENTRATING SOLAR POWER
- CONCENTRATING SOLAR POWER
- TECHNOLOGY
- SYSTEMS OVERVIEW
- Table 80 TYPICAL OPERATING TEMPERATURES AND CAPACITIES FOR CONCENTRATING
SOLAR POWER
- Parabolic Trough Systems
- Power Tower Systems
- Table 81 ADVANTAGES OF SOLAR
- Dish/Engine Systems
- Recent Developments
- Future Markets
- Technology Status
- Table 82 COMMERCIAL STATUS OF CONCENTRATING SOLAR POWER SYSTEMS
- BUSINESS AND MARKET OPPORTUNITIES
- Market Status
- Global Market Expands Concentrating Solar Power
- CONCENTRATING SOLAR POWER INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
- Table 83 LEADING COMPANIES IN THE CONCENTRATING SOLAR POWER BUSINESS
- Table 83 (CONTINUED)
- CONCENTRATING SOLAR POWER COST FACTORS
- CONCENTRATING SOLAR POWER ADVANTAGES AND LIMITATIONS
- Positive Factors
- Limiting Factors
- Comparison with Photovoltaic Technology
- Comparison with Photovoltaic ý(Continued)
- Chapter 10 - APPENDIX II GLOSSARY
- GLOSSARY
- GLOSSARY (CONTINUED)
- GLOSSARY (CONTINUED)
- GLOSSARY (CONTINUED)
- GLOSSARY (CONTINUED)
- GLOSSARY (CONTINUED)
- GLOSSARY (CONTINUED)
- GLOSSARY (CONTINUED)
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