Connector Technology Roadmap Report

SUMMARY

Bishop and Associates has released a new six chapter, 183-page reportcovering technology roadmapping on electronic connectors. Included with theBishop Connector Roadmap report is the National Electronic ManufacturingInitiative's (NEMI1) 2002 Electronics Industry Roadmap on CD (1,100 pages).

During 2002, Bishop and Associates, Inc. worked with other industry expertsto research and author a connector roadmap that became part of the NationalElectronic Manufacturing Initiative's 2002 Technology Roadmap Report.

Covered in the new report is a 10-year roadmap of selected elements of theelectronic connector industry from 2003 to 2013, a review of connectortechnology trends, and a discussion of the roadmapping process. It contains PCBConnectors, backplane connectors, processor and memory test sockets powerconnectors, high-speed connectors, etc. It also includes an interpretation ofthe NEMI roadmaps' impact on connectors. The intent is to expand on this datafor future reports, adding additional product categories, industry segmentanalyses, and support for the 2004 NEMI roadmap process.

The Connector Technology Roadmap Report includes insights into outsourcing toEMS, ODM and other subcontractors, and the move to high volume systemmanufacturing to China. It discusses how these dynamics will affect theconnector industry, which is also increasing its presence in China to maintaincustomers and remain competitive. Questions emerge about the future of westernmanufacturing and RD&E infrastructure that supports these high volumemarkets. This is affecting standard product manufacturing and supply chains suchas mobile phones and PDAs, notebook and desktop computers and PC motherboards,PC servers, computer peripherals, telecom equipment, etc. Even the increasinglycompetitive automotive sector will be subject to these trends.

Report Objective

• Analyze and expand upon first connector industry roadmap report.
• Provide a framework for future roadmapping efforts.
• Interpret NEMI Roadmap vis-a-vis the connector industry.

The Connector Report is organized into 6 sections:

• Roadmap Overview
• Chapter 1 - Technology Roadmapping as a Business Discipline
• Chapter 2 - Connector Technology and Core Competency Trends
• Chapters 3 to 5 - Connector Technology Roadmaps
• Chapter 6 - Review/Interpretation of NEMI Roadmap
• NEMI 2002 National Technology Roadmap - Attached CD

The NEMI 2002 Roadmap CD includes alphabetically:

1. Appendices

2. Acknowledgements

3. Automotive & Defense

4. Board Assembly

5. Consumer Products

6. Digital Silicon

7. Displays

8. Electronic Connectors

9. Energy Storage Batteries

10. Environmental Electronics Pb-Free

11. Exec. Summary

12. Final Assembly

13. Forward

14. Interconnect Substrates - Inorganic

15. Interconnect Substrates - Organic

16. Introduction

17. Large Business Systems

18. Mass Data Storage Drives

19. Modeling, Simulation & Design Tools

20. Office Systems

21. Optoelectronics

22. Packaging

23. Passive Components

24. Portable Systems

25. Product Life Cycle Management

26. RF Components

27. Test & Measurement

28. Thermal Management

The Connector Roadmap does not identify any abrupt roadblocks to continuedconnector usage. More gradual shifts will include the continuing process ofcircuit integration, innovation in electronic packaging, wireless applications,and the decline of western manufacturing. It does indicate that there will becontinuing performance improvements and design innovation, miniaturization, andthe eventual shift to alternative technologies such as fiber optics and MEMS. Asin the past, connectors will continue to evolve - influenced by physical andelectrical limits imposed by core connector technologies and application as aseparable interface:

• IC Technology Moore's Law will continue to drive equipment design.
• This will increasingly include System-on-Chip and System-in-Package designs.
• These equipment and packaging trends will heavily influence connectordesign.
• Connectors will continue to be limited by core technology and electro-mechanicalfunction.
• There is a potential shift to new 'monolithic' PCB designs that couldaffect many components.

Business forces - technology forces, include:

• 2001-2003 electronics recession which is not yet over in computers andtelecom.
• Global competition and supply chain management - I.e. Increasingpressure on logistics.
• Industry standardization & multiple sourcing requirements.
• Trend toward outsourcing at all levels of the food chain.
• Shifts in mfg to China - from the US, EU, Mexico, Japan, Taiwan, etc..
• Infrastructure issues that will result from offshore manufacturing.

Specific connector designs will be subject to more rapid change andobsolescence, particularly as product life cycles shrink at the equipment leveland business becomes more global. Legacy designs do remain after decades ofproduction, but are no longer 'cash cows' due to significant price erosion.

The pace of change in connectors lags semiconductors. Proprietary connectordesigns are less popular, creating additional pressure on ASPs. In addition,core technologies are now practiced worldwide, life cycles are shorter, andcompetitive advantage comes more from cost leadership and customer service.

Significant design and business flexibility remains within the connectorindustry, which has always been very good at electro-mechanical engineering andhigh volume manufacturing. In addition, OEMs are outsourcing - massively. Thismeans they and their subcontractors are looking for suppliers who can do more,support them globally, and provide error-free product at a competitive price.

1The National Electronic Manufacturing Initiative (NEMI) is a non-profitindustry consortium based in Herndon, VA. Its charter is to strengthen NorthAmerica's electronics manufacturing infrastructure including its supply chain,through visionary leadership, cooperative programs, reports, and standardsinitiatives. One of NEMI's major efforts is its bi-annual North AmericanElectronic Manufacturing Roadmap. NEMI members include OEMs and componentmanufacturers.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Overview

• Report Purpose
• Report Contents
• Attached NEMI Roadmap Chapter Index
• Connector Overview
• Roadmap Definition
• Industry Trends
• Outsourcing
• Major Trends - Systems 2003-2013
• Major Trends - Packaging/Interconnect
• Critical Areas for North America
• Key Areas inferred from NEMI Roadmap
• Acknowledgements

Chapter 1

• Technology Roadmapping Process
• Roadmapping Discipline
• EMI Roadmap Process
• Early Roadmapping Proponents - Intel Example
• Example - IC Substrate Roadmap
• Confidential Info
• Time
• Outline for a Connector Roadmap
• Example - Memory Socket Roadmap
• Roadmap Manuscript from Sandia Labs
• Acknowledgements

Chapter 2

• Connector Technology Review
• Introduction
• Separable vs. Hard Connections
• Transition to Electronic Component
• Key Technology Drivers
• Key Areas for Connector Development
• Roadblocks
• High Performance packaging Impact
• Intel BBUL Packaging Example
• Parallel to Serial Busses
• Generic High Speed Roadmap
• Core Technology Competencies
• Contact Physics
• Micro-Contacts
• Base Metals
• Contacts & Plating
• Plastics
• Manufacturing & Assembly
• Mfg Summary
• Final Word
• Acknowledgements

Chapter 3

• Connector Roadmap Overview & Market
• Scope
• Definition
• Market
• Worldwide Connector Sales
• Market Sector Increases/Decreases
• Sales Performance Selected Markets
• North American Decline in Mfg
• Key Trends & Roadblocks
• Key Dynamics
• Taiwan IT Hardware
• Response to Offshore Mfg
• Summary of Possible Actions
• Summary of Connector Trends by Type
• Connector Trends Table
• Key Issues by Type
• Other Key Points
• Connector Background
• Definition
• Connector Applications Illustration
• Market Dynamics
• World Market 1999-2003
• Share by Market
• Outsourcing Phenomenon
• Barriers to North American Mfg
• Offshore Movement of Connector Mfg
• Incentives to Relocate
• World Connector Market Forecast Scenarios 2003-2013
• World and Regional Connector Market Roadmap 2002 - 2013 $
• Acknowledgments

Chapter 4

• Connector Technology Roadmap
• Connector Technology
• Electro-Mechanical Connection
• Transition to Electronics
• General Roadmap Trend
• Key Technology Roadblocks
• Parallel to Serial
• Precursor to Fiber
• Generic High Speed Roadmap
• High Speed Barriers
• Core Competencies
• Importance
• Micro-Contacts & MEMS
• Base Metals
• Metal Fabrication
• Plating Technology
• Substrate Plating
• Tin Plating
• Precious Metal
• Pb-Free Soldering
• Pb-Free Alloys
• Lubricants
• Polymers
• Manufacturing
• Insert Molding
• Dual Injection Molding
• Connector Assembly
• Major Trends
• Odd-Shape Component Placement
• Automation
• Automation Definitions
• Automation Levels
• Philosophy of Automation
• Historical Model
• Influence of Outsourcing
• China Manufacturing
• Electronic Assembly by Region
• China Mfg by Market Segment 2001-2006
• Mfg Summary
• Acknowledgements

Chapter 5

• Connector Roadmaps
• Generic PC Board Connectors
• Connectorized Backplanes
• High Speed Transmission Issues
• Transmission Lines
• Characteristic Impedance
• Cross-Talk
• Moore' Law
• Differential Signaling
• Skin Effect
• High Speed Connector Impact
• Connector Density by Type
• Speed vs. Density
• Performance Measurement Systems
• Near End Cross-Talk
• TDR
• S-Parameters
• Eye Plots
• Spice Analysis
• 3D Field Solvers
• Test Boards
• Software
• Test Documentation
• Effects of Telecom & IT Downturn
• Connector Attachment Technology
• Board Designs for Press-Fit
• Global B/P PWB Technology
• Increased layer Count & Board Thickness
• Board Size
• Through Hole B/P Board Size
• Aspect Ratios
• Surface Finishes
• Press-Fit Limitations
• Limits of Technology - Press-Fit
• PWB Materials
• GHz Speeds
• Common B/P Architectures
• Traditional
• Card Cage
• Mid-Plane
• Orthogonal
• Industry Standards
• Industry Stds. Backplanes
• Surface Mount
• Limits to Introduction of New Technology
• Impact of SMT Connector Design
• Printed Circuit Board Design & Fabrication
• Emerging Technology - Beyond 10GHz
  • Internally Shielded Connectors
  • Low Loss Laminates
  • Microvia
  • Paradigm Shift: ASIC Noise Control
  • Adaptive Equalizers
  • Driver & Receiver Technology
• Market Forecast Gb Backplane Connectors
• Miniature Backplane Systems
• Optical Backplane Systems
• Discrete Fiber
• Polymer Waveguides
• Flexible Glass
• Barriers to Implementation
• Shift to Offshore Mfg
• Captive vs. Outsourced Backplane Assembly
• Pricing Trends
• Connectorized B/P Roadmap
• Power Connectors
• Anatomy of a Power Contact
• Power Connector Performance Criteria
• Hot Swap Performance
• Power Categories
• Power Capacity
• Configuration
• Form Factor
• Ratings
• Parameter Roadmap
• Power/Heat Reduction Efforts
• Thermal Management
• Bus Bars
• World Forecast of Electronic Power Connectors 2002-2007
• Power Connector Forecast by Market
• Mezzanine Connectors
• Flex, Pad, other High Performance
• High Perf. Stacking Connector Roadmap
• Rt. Angle High Perf. Stacking Connector Roadmap
• IC Sockets
• PGA Sockets
• PGA Barriers
• LGA Sockets
• LGA Barriers
• Universal Socket Technology
• Memory Sockets
• Memory Socket Roadmap
• Memory Socket Barriers
• Test & Burn-In Connectors
• Test
• Multiple Package Test
• Wafer Scale
• Pad Pitches
• Burn-In
• Key Points
• Reduction - Elimination of Burn-In
• Costly Solutions
• Acknowledgements

Chapter 6

• NEMI Roadmap Trends
• Automotive
• Defense Systems
• Board Assembly
• Board Assembly Roadmap
• Consumer Electronics
• Consumer Product Attributes
• Digital Silicon
• On-Chip Interconnects
• Si Chip-Package Roadmap
• Displays
• Market Shares of Various Display Technologies
• Energy Storage
• Energy Storage Market Dynamics
• Battery Applications
• Environmental Electronics
• Final Assembly
• Needs from NEMI Analysis of Final Assembly
• Interconnect Substrates PWBs
• PWB Manufacturing
• Inorganic Substrates
• LTCC Substrates
• Large Business Systems
• Mass Data Storage
• World Market - Disk Drives
• Modeling, Simulation & Design Rules
• Electro-Optics
• Optical Module Revenue
• Conceptual EO Packaging
• Packaging
• Peripheral Bus Speed
• Package IO Count
• Passive Devices
• IPD Usage +/-
• Portable Products
• Portable Roadmap & Connector Content
• Key Parameters for Handheld Devices
• RF Components
• Thermodynamics
• Notebook Power Dissipation Example
• Acknowledgements