Computer Equipment - Markets & Connector Use

SUMMARY

Bishop and Associates has just released a new ten-chapter research report covering Computer Equipment - Markets & Connector Use. This report provides a detailed view of computer system hardware and connector content. Hardware is defined as: palmtops, notebooks, desktop PCs, motherboards, workstations, servers, (PC servers, proprietary/RISC servers) mainframes and super computers. Details are also provided by region of the world (North America, Europe, Japan, China, Asia Pacific, ROW).

Computer usage and connector content became increasingly volatile during the recent precedent-shattering business climate. The sheer dynamics of this industry, with its worst downturn ever, the HPQ merger, outsourcing, and a massive shift in manufacturing operations, all added to this uncertainty.

Multiple industry forces have been responding to these pressures: price erosion, new equipment configurations, desktop replacement, SATA, WiFi, PC server-blades, accelerated outsourcing, and changes in connector content and supply chain.

Component manufacturers with a stake in the computer market must react quickly to these dynamics. One effect is an increased migration of facilitation, engineering and manufacturing to Asia. Affected by these changes are facilities in North America including Mexico, Europe, Japan and even Taiwan and South Korea. A typical setup is to have product engineering and product management in Japan, Taiwan, or Singapore, with manufacturing resources in China ? either direct, joint venture or subcontract. Mainland China has quickly emerged as the destination of choice for high volume assembly, with some predicting over 50% of world electronics manufacturing there by 2010. Intel, Microsoft and most computer hardware OEMs are leveraging low cost manufacturing in the region ? directly and via industry-standards and reference designs. Against this backdrop of industry forces, we observe that:

85-90% of the unit volume in computers is in the ?ePC' category, with almost two-thirds in desktops. These high volume segments are under significant pressure, both cost and product substitution as they become more ?econsumerized products'. A conservative view of desktops is that they will grow in the mid-to-high single digits in units but will be flat to down in dollars. Increasing ASPs will require adding in newer technologies such as flat panel displays, DVD-RAM or shifting to notebooks.

Business and consumer markets are both significant in the PC segment. Business systems [e.g., servers] command higher prices, but growth in the Wintel/Lintel category vs. RISC/Unix is increasing price pressure and stressing non-Wintel OEMs such as Sun Microsystems. The consumer market appears to be growing fastest as Chinese and other Asia Pacific demand gears up and new applications emerge, such as the home entertainment center. Currently ? and in the future, A-P demand is one of the important factors in the computer industry's recovery.

Assembly is now often accomplished through a global supply chain including tiers of subcontractors. Most high volume assembly appears headed to China from the US, Taiwan and other regions. This ranges from turnkey design-build operations [ODMs] to traditional full-service EMS firms to bare bones motherboard manufacturers. One connector manufacturer, Foxconn, is becoming a significant player in the contract manufacturing area.

OEMs are transferring procurement responsibilities to these subcontractors, although many OEMs still control bills-of-materials [BOM]. But this transfer of procurement will inevitably put pressure on OEM design-in positions and QPLs because both OEM and EMS firms can increase their bottom lines by ?eshopping' the BOM.

Connector 'Customers' are now Acer/Wistron, Celestica, Flextronics, Sanmina-SCI, or ODMs such as Quanta, First International Computer, Compal, Asus and others. Many suppliers still view the OEM as the customer, with the subcontractor at the head of the OEM supply chain. More accurately, one must now look at the total supply chain for each OEM application and their individual needs.

Thus the market and customer base for electronic component producers serving large segments of the computer industry is changing. It is increasingly in Asia, with a regional shift to Mainland China, and with the emergence of local connector competition.

Business decisions are being weighed in some quarters as to the attractiveness of this market model going forward: [Profitability, ROI, RD&E and IP issues]. Others are ?ein' the computer business for the long haul ? Global enterprises with strong OEM positions, engineering strength, quality product and offshore manufacturing.

The following table provides our outlook for computer equipment units for the years 2002 - 2008.

Worldwide Computer Equipment Market in Units - 2002/2008

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive Summary

• Scope
• Market
• Market Size & Trend
• World Computer Market - $ - 2003-2008
• Computer Market - Assembly by Region - Advanced vs. Developing
• Connector Market - Computer Hardware - By Application - 03/08
• Market Dynamics
• Sun vs. Wintel
• Business Issues
• Connector Opportunities
• Fujitsu-Siemens Factory

Chapter 1 - Introduction

• State of Computer Industry
• Major Events & Trends
• Operating Systems - Si Market Shares - 2003-2008
• PC Outlook
• Consumer vs. Business Mix - 2000-2004
• What Happened
• Industry Changes
• Intel Xeon Processor
• What will Drive the Industry -
• Nokia Communicator
• 2003 - Year of Turn Around -
• Computer Industry Prospects
• Areas of Potential Growth
• Key Companies
• Business Week IT100
• Contract Mfrs & OEMs
• Strategies For Connector Companies
• Acknowledgements

Chapter 2 - Parallel to Serial

• Serialization
• Hi Speed Serial Data Connector
• Serial ATA
• Seagate SATA
• SATA Connectors
• Migration from PCI
• Serial Data Bus Connectors
• Silicon
• Intel Chipset
• Infiniband
• Infiniband in China
• Infiniband Architecture
• Connectors
• FibreChannel SAN
• HSSDC
• Serial Prepares for Future
• Optical Interconnect
• Optical Silicon
• Generic Hi Speed Serial Roadmap
• Copper Response
• 100 Gb Cu - 25 meters
• 13.5 Gb over 24h FR4
• Mainstream Serial Initiatives
• Acknowledgements

Chapter 3 - Palmtop Devices

• Palm Tungsten
• OEMs
• Market Trend
• Dell Axim
• Handspring & Palm
• Motorola Communicator
• Corp. & Vertical Markets
• Market Summary
• Global Unit Volume - Mobile Devices - 2002-2009
• Global $ Volume
• Device Types
• PDAs - Palm OS
• Sony Clie
• PDAs - Microsoft OS
• HPCs - Keyboard Devices
• Sony HPC
• Communicators
• Orig. Qualcomm
• Smart Phones
• Orange Smart Phone
• Bandwidth & Device Capability
• Wireless
• Wireless Roadmap
• Form Factor
• Technology
• Transmeta
• Examples of Current & Future Devices
• Connectors
• HPQ I-Paq
• Palm
• Palm Bill-of-Matls
• Pocket PC Bill-of-Matls
• Winning OEMs
• Acknowledgements

Chapter 4 - Notebooks

• Overview
• Worldwide Notebook Growth - 2003-2008
• Notebook Categories
• Full Function
• Thin & Light
• Sony Vaio
• SOHO - Student
• Vaio
• Notebook Ports
• Tablet PC
• MSFT Concept Tablet
• Packaging
• Key Notebook Interconnects
• Processors
• Micro-PGA
• Processor Sockets
• I-O
• PC2001
• Ports
• Dell Ports
• PC Card
• Board-to-Board
• Cable-to-Board
• Flex-to-Board
• Future Trends
• Bluetooth
• Ericsson Bluetooth Module
• Bluetooth Notebook Penetration
• Serial ATA
• Docking Stations
• Sony Unit
• Docking Station Market Potential
• ODM Influence
• Quanta - Compal - Arima
• Connector Suppliers
• Notebook Bills-of-Matls
• High End Desktop Replacement Bill-of-Matls
• Thin & Light BOM
• SOHO BOM
• Acknowledgements

Chapter 5 - Desktop PCs & Personal Workstations

• Overview
• Typical Motherboard
• IBM NetVista
• Current Market Shares
• Dell
• HP
• HP Desktop
• The Merger
• HPQ Personal Systems Group
• IBM
• IBM Products
• Gateway Products
• Sony
• Sony Mfg Facilities in North Amer.
• Sony Digital Studio
• Apple
• Apple Products
• G-5
• Other PC Suppliers - Acer
• Toshiba
• NEC
• Systemax
• Competing Desktop Technologies
• i-Paq Thin Client
• Desktop Product Mix - 200-2005
• Emerging Computing Models
• Value Proposition
• Compaq Evo Thin Client
• Desktop Summary
• Acknowledgements

Chapter 6 - Motherboards & Packaging

• PC Motherboards
• M/B Manufacturers
• 0.13 micro Pentium
• Example - Asustek
• PCB Layout
• Intel Ref. Motherboard
• Ports
• Apple - IBM Challenge
• IBM Processor
• IBM Cu Interconnects
• Dual Processor Systems
• Serial ATA
• Motherboard, Chassis & Ports
• Desktop PC Usage Models
• Processor & Chipset
• Asus & Soyo Motherboards and BOM
• Motherboards.com
• Abit M/B & BOM
• Chassis/Motherboard Initiatives
• Product Mix Changes
• Interconnect BOMs: PC, Thin Client, Mac
• Soyo Socket 478 M/B
• Desktop PC BOM
• Thin Client
• Macintosh
• Acknowledgements

Chapter 7 -Servers

• Background
• IBM Rack Mounted Servers
• Processors
• Blade Servers
• RLX Blade
• Intel Move to Rack-Mounted & Clustered Blades
• Server Applications
• Impact of Economic Downturn
• Market Going Forward
• Worldwide Server Market - 2002-2008
• Mainframe & Super Computer Systems
• Mfg Origin of Top 500 Super Computers
• Top 20 Mfrs of Installed Super Computer Systems
• Server Packaging & Interconnect
• Entry Level
• Sun Entry level
• Sun Entry Level BOM
• PC Servers
• Intel Xeon Package
• Super Micro Server Mainboard
• Entry Level PC Server BOM
• Midrange & Rack Mounted
• Sun Rack Server
• Sun Mainboard, Memory Bank
• Blank Page
• Sun Mainboard Picture
• Sun Mainboard Picture
• Midrange Sun Servers BOM
• Tatung Server
• Tatung Mainboard
• Midrange PC Server BOM
• Enterprise BOM
• Super Micro Dual Xeon M/B
• Ultra Dense Blade
• IBM Enterprise Server
• Acknowledgements

Chapter 8 Mainframe - Super Computers

• Overview
• IBM Z900 Photo
• Sun 10000 Photo
• Hardware vs Software
• Intanium Multi-Chip Module
• Cinch Fuzz Button LGA
• Sun CPU Board
• CMOS vs ECL Chip Technology
• Top 500 List
• Examples
• Compaq G5 Parameters
• Fujitsu-Siemens PrimePower
• Other Links
• Super Computer Market Share
• Nominal BOM
• Acknowledgements

Chapter 9 - Regional Forecasts

• Computer Mfg Exits to the East
• Dynamics of Regional Mfg Forecasts
• World, North America, Europe, Japan
• Asia-Pacific, China, ROW
• Computer Unit Consumption % 2000-2008
• Computer Unit Assembly by Region % - All Mobile
• Computer Unit Assembly by Region % - Desktop
• Computer Unit Assembly by Region % - Server
• Connector Types
• Regional Connector Usage
• North American Connector Usage by Applic. 2003-2008
• N.A. Usage by Connector Type 2003-2008
• European Connector Usage by Applic. 2003-2008
• Euro Connector Usage by Type 2003-2008
• Japan Connector Usage by Applic. 2003-2008
• Japan Connector Usage by Type 2003-2008
• China Connector Usage by Applic. 2003-2008
• China Connector Usage by Type 2003-2008
• Other Asia-Pacific Connector Usage by Applic. 2003-2008
• Other A-P Connector Usage by Type 2003-2008
• Rest-of-World Connector Usage by Applic. 2003-2008
• ROW Connector Usage by Type 2003-2008
• World Connector Usage by Applic. 2003-2008
• World Connector Usage by Type 2003-2008
• 3% Price Erosion Factor 2003-2008
• Global Unit Consumption of Computers 2001-2008
• Regional Consumption % 2001-08 - detail
• Regional Consumption Units 2001-2008 - detail
• Worldwide Estimates Regional % Consumption 2001-2008
• By Component Sales % 2001-2008 - detail

Chapter 10 - Detailed Market Data

• World Usage Calculations by Equip. & Conn. 2002-08
• Details by Product Type
• Palmtop Details 2002-2008
• Laptop Details 2002-2008
• Desktop Details 2002-2008
• Workstation Details2002-2008
• PC Server Details 2002-2008
• Midrange Server Details 2002-2008
• Enterprise Server Details 2002-2008
• Mainframe Super Computer Details 2002-2008
• Industrial PC Details 2002-2008
• Misc. Computer Parts Detail 2002-2008