Switch Fabrics Gravitate to RapidIO and Arapahoe

SUMMARY

Over the last few years, Merchant Switch Fabric (MSF) vendors have suffered at least as much as other semiconductor makers, if not more. However, we are entering a period when several forces should combine for this market to experience healthy growth for the next 5 years. First, many OEMs have experienced massive reductions in their R&D budgets. As such, companies that scoffed at the idea of using an MSF, as recently as 2 years ago, are now reconsidering. Next, fabrics continue to expand their number of target markets ?ncluding the health SAN and wireless infrastructure markets. Also, the standardized aTCA will help MSF vendors to truly reduce the ever-critical "Time-to-Market"metric for its customers by pre-engineering many details of how to specifically use their solution in a specific, but widely available chassis. Lastly, standardized back planes will further provide an additional level of comfort for those OEMs that transition from their own, home-brewed fabric to one commercially available.

This report forecasts the shipments, ASPs, and revenues of the MSF market. It also projects the shipments expected for the entire fabric market, as well as for standardized back planes, such as RapidIO and Advanced Switching. There is also market share data for 2002 of the top MSF vendors.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive Summary

Methodology

Introduction

Technical Overview

• A Brief History of
• The First Generation of Switching Chips
  • Crossbar Switches
• Protocol-Dependent Switches
  • Shared Memory ATM Switches
• SONET Technology Overview
• MSFs as Part of The Puzzle
• The Best of Both Worlds
  • The Hybrid Approach
• Future Trends
  • Increased Queues & Memory
  •   More Intelligence
  •   Better Communications & Signaling
  •   Standardized Back Plane Links
  •   Higher Densities & Tighter Integration

Market Overview

• The Worst is Over
• The Recovery
• Pros & Cons to MSFs
  • Cons
  • Pros
• The Infrastructure Revolution
  • The Shortcomings of Using SONET Rings to Carry Data
  • The Answer

Forecast

• Forecast Methodology
• Market Shares for MSF Market
• Total Available Market (TAM)
• Standardized Back Planes
  • Shipments
• Merchant Switch Fabric Market
  • Shipments
  • Average Sale Prices (ASPs)
  • Revenues
• Forecast Summaries

Vendor Profiles

• Companies not Profiled:
  • Erlang Technology
  • Dune Networks
  • Marvell
  • Paion
  • Sandburst
  • StarGen
  • Tau Networks
  • TeraChip
  • TeraOptic
  • TranSwitch
• Vendor Comparisons
• Agere
• Applied Micro Circuits Corporation (AMCC)
• Broadcom
• International Business Machines Corp. (IBM)
• Internet Machines
• Mindspeed
• PetaSwitch
• PMC-Sierra
• Vitesse
• ZettaCom

Conclusion

Appendix B: Glossary

List of Tables

• Table 1. Summary of Forecast for the Merchant Switch Fabric Market (2002 - 2007)
• Table 2. Speeds of the SONET and SDH Hierarchy
• Table 3. Economic Analysis of NEPs Using an ASIC-based 2.56 Tbps Switch Fabric
• Table 4. Economic Analysis of NEPs Using an MSF-based 2.56 Tbps Switch Fabric
• Table 5. Comparison of Data Type versus Infrastructure needs
• Table 6. Order of Magnitude Yearly Revenue Potentials from Data Through a MSPP
• Table 7. Hourly Full-Duplex Data Consumption Rates for Popular Online Activities
• Table 8. TAM for All Types of Switch Fabrics, Worldwide, 2002 to 2007 (in 10 Gbps Ports)
• Table 9. Shipment Forecast of Standardized Back Planes, by Segment, 2003 to 2007 (in 10 Gbps Ports)
• Table 10. Shipment Forecast of Worldwide MSF Market, by Segment, 2002 to 2007 (in 10 Gbps Ports)
• Table 11. Forecast of Worldwide MSF Market by Aggregated Throughput, 2002 to 2007 (in 10 Gbps Ports)
• Table 12. Forecast for Worldwide MSF ASPs, 2002 to 2007 (US$ per 10 Gbps Port)
• Table 13. Revenue Forecast of Worldwide MSF Market, 2002-2007 (US$ in Thousands)
• Table 14. Forecast Summary for the Worldwide MSF Market, 2002 to 2007
• Table 15. Comparison of the Lead MSFs