Luggable Media: Sneakernet Can Provide a Stepping Stone to Download, Synch, & Go

SUMMARY

Abstract

A funny thing happened on the way to the future of the Connected Digital Home. The storage capacity of re-writeable micro-sized disk drives, Flash memory products, and other portable storage devices is surpassing the storage capacity of next-generation optical discs. The convenience of "luggable media" is such that many of the key usage models being promoted for the Connected Digital Home can be realized earlier using a "sneakernet" approach than can be achieved if the industry has to wait for high-quality in-home networks to become part of the consumer mainstream.

The concept of the Connected Digital Home uses a home server, usually, but not necessarily, a personal computer, to manage and distribute electronic entertainment throughout a residence. Plans call for advanced wired and wireless networks to be installed and proliferate throughout tens of millions of households.

Low-cost portable storage devices can move the content throughout the home via "sneakernet." It's possible that consumers may opt in favor of "luggable" media because of its low-cost, its availability, and its convenience.

The worldwide retail value of Luggable Media is forecast to rise from about US$441 million during 2006, up to more than US$25 billion during 2010, exhibiting a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 176.5% between 2006 and 2010.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

• Executive Summary
  • Luggable Media for Portability, DVDs for Archives
  • $25 Billion at Retail By 2010
• Methodology
  • Previous Reports that Provide Useful Background Information
• Portable Electronic Entertainment Emerges as the Next Big Thing
  • Flash Drives and Microdisks Will Gradually Rise Up Alongside Optical Media
    • Portable Optical Formats, Like Sony's UMD, Are Emerging
    • CDs and DVDs Will Be Seen as Archiving Products
  • Sneakernet Will Emerge as an Important Stepping Stone to Enable Portable Electronic Entertainment
  • The Age of Home Theater Sets Portability In Motion
    • Large Screen TVs and Surround Sound Are Proliferating
    • Personal Computers Are "Connecting" to HDTV Displays
    • But a Parallel Universe Is Developing for Portable Entertainment
  • Personal Computers Are Becoming Home Entertainment Hubs that Can Connect to Many Things
    • The Connected Digital Home Is Coming
    • Intel's Viiv™ Entertainment PC Architecture
    • Apple's iMac Line Morphing onto an Intel Platform
      • Apple's iPod Points the Way for Luggable Media In the Future
    • Microsoft MediaCenter Edition Adding Portable Players
    • Personal Computers Can Be Used to "Write" to Various Media
  • Personal Computers' Abilities to Connect to So Many Things Leads to Portable Devices
    • PCs Provide Multiple Types of In-Home Network Connectivity
      • PC Cluster
      • Entertainment Center Cluster
      • Intra-Room Networks
      • Inter-Room Networks
  • Each Network Has Three "Flavors"
    • Wired In-Home Networks
      • Internet Protocol (IP) Approaches Favored by the PC Industry
      • Non-IP Approaches Can Also Be Implemented
    • Wireless In-Home Networks
    • Sneakernet In-Home Networks Using "Luggable Media"
      • Sneakernet Media Can Also Move Outside of the Home!
    • High Definition Video Favors Sneakernet In the Short Run
• Usage Models for Portable Electronic Entertainment
  • Any Content to Any Place on Any Device at Any Time
  • Two-Foot Viewing Experience
    • Two-Foot Viewing Experience "On the Go"
  • Ten-Foot Viewing Experience
    • Ten-Foot Viewing Experience "On the Go"
  • Portable Viewing Experience Is Already "On the Go"
  • Playing Back Portable Content on a Big-Screen TV Display
  • Enter Sneakernet--the Low-Cost, Convenient Solution
  • "Luggable Media" Puts the Content In Your Pocket!
  • Standardized, Low-Cost Players Will Make It Happen
• Five Methods for Content to Get to a Viewing Device
  • "Live," Two-Way Video and Voice for Interactive Communications
  • "Live," One-Way Video and Audio for Entertainment Distribution
    • Multi-Room Digital Video Recorders (DVRs) as an Example
      • Amimon's Wireless High Definition TV Interface (WHDI™)
    • Intel's Viiv™ ArchitectureSupports "Live" One-Way Services
    • Next-Generation Networks and MIMO Technologies Help
  • The Store & Forward Approaches Do Not Require QoS
  • Store & Forward Video for Initial Storage In a Server
  • Store & Forward Video for Distribution to Viewing Devices
  • Archiving Technologies for Long-Term Storage and Later Retrieval
• What Luggable Media Means for the Content Industry
  • The Consumer Market Is Fragmenting Down to "An Audience of One"
  • Original Content Will Be Sold with Optional Upgrades to Pay for Portability Rights and Managed Copy Privileges
  • Luggable Media Provides Opportunities to Connect with Your Customers Beyond the Initial Moment of Sale
    • An Example Using HD-DVD's Managed Copy Feature
  • The PC Industry Is Becoming a Force to Be Reckoned With
  • If It's On a PC, It's Coming to a Cell Phone Soon
  • Consumer Electronics Products Will Follow the PC Example
  • How Will Luggable Media Impact Sales of DVDs?
• "Luggable Media"--It Has To Fit In Your Pocket and Survive to be Played
  • Luggable Media Must Support 2 Gigabytes of Capacity
  • Luggable Media Must Support Video Recording and Playback
  • Luggable Media Must Support DRM and Copy Protection
  • CDs and DVDs Are Not "Luggable Media," by Our Definition
  • Small Form Factor Packaged Goods Are Luggable Media
    • Small Form Factor Packaged Goods Covered In Other Reports
  • Luggable Media Used Mainly for Sneakernet
    • Luggable Media is a Subset of Portable Storage Products
  • Secure Disc SD™ Memory Devices
    • SanDisk's Gruvi MicroSD™ Product Foreshadows Luggable Media by Providing the Rolling Stones "Bigger Bang" Album with Enhancements
    • Memory Stick® Memory Devices
    • USB Flash Drives
    • One-Inch Hard Disk Drives
• Households Likely to Use Luggable Media
  • Households Likely to Have a MediaCenter Edition PC
  • Households Likely to Have a Personal Video Recorder (PVR)
  • Aggregate Unique Households with an MCE or PVR
• North American Luggable Media Market by Category
• European Luggable Media Market by Category
• Asian Luggable Media Market by Category
• ROW Luggable Media Market by Category
• Worldwide Luggable Media Market by Category
  • Luggable Media Market Value by Region for All Categories Combined
• Portomedia Provides An Example
• List of Tables
  • Table 1. Worldwide Value of Luggable Media Device Shipments (US$ in Millions, Annual Growth Rate, Compound Annual Growth Rate [CAGR])
  • Table 2. Annual Shipments of MediaCenter Edition (MCE) PCs by Region (Annual Unit Shipments in Thousands, Annual Growth Rate, Percent Worldwide Total by Region, CAGR)
  • Table 3. Number of Households Likely To Be Using an MCE PC by Region (Households in Thousands, Annual Growth Rate, Percent of Total by Region, CAGR).
  • Table 4. Annual Shipments of Personal Video Recorders (PVRs) by Region (Annual Unit Shipments in Thousands, Annual Growth Rate, Percent Worldwide Total by Region, CAGR)
  • Table 5. Number of Households Likely To Be Using A PVR by Region (Households in Thousands, Annual Growth Rate, Percent of Total by Region, CAGR)
  • Table 6. Aggregate Number of Unique Households Using An MCE PC or PVR by Region (Unique Households in Thousands, Annual Growth Rate, Percent of Total by Region, CAGR)
  • Table 7. Annual Shipments of Luggable Media Devices by Category in North America (Units in Thousands, Annual Growth Rate, Percent of Total, CAGR)
  • Table 8. Typical Retail Pricing For Luggable Media Devices by Category in North America (Typical Retail Price in US Dollars)
  • Table 9. Annual Value of Luggable Media Devices by Category in North America (US$ in Millions, Annual Growth Rate, Percent of Total, CAGR)
  • Table 10. Annual Shipments of Luggable Media Devices by Category in Europe (Units in Thousands, Annual Growth Rate, Percent of Total, CAGR)
  • Table 11. Typical Retail Pricing For Luggable Media Devices by Category in Europe (Typical Retail Price in US Dollars).
  • Table 12. Annual Value of Luggable Media Devices by Category in Europe (US$ in Millions, Annual Growth Rate, Percent of Total, CAGR)
  • Table 13. Annual Shipments of Luggable Media Devices by Category in Asia (Units in Thousands, Annual Growth Rate, Percent of Total, CAGR)
  • Table 14. Typical Retail Pricing For Luggable Media Devices by Category in Asia (Typical Retail Price in US Dollars)
  • Table 15. Annual Value of Luggable Media Devices by Category in Asia (US$ in Millions, Annual Growth Rate, Percent of Total, CAGR)
  • Table 16. Annual Shipments of Luggable Media Devices by Category in the ROW Countries (Units in Thousands, Annual Growth Rate, Percent of Total, CAGR)
  • Table 17. Typical Retail Pricing For Luggable Media Devices by Category in the ROW (Typical Retail Price in US Dollars)
  • Table 18. Annual Value of Luggable Media Devices by Category in the ROW (US$ in Millions, Annual Growth Rate, Percent of Total, CAGR)
  • Table 19. Annual Shipments of Luggable Media Devices By Category, Worldwide (Units in Thousands, Annual Growth Rate, Percent of Total, CAGR)
  • Table 20. Annual Value of Luggable Media Devices by Category, Worldwide (US$ in Millions, Annual Growth Rate, Percent of Total, CAGR)
  • Table 21. Annual Shipments of All Luggable Media Devices By Category by Region (Units in Thousands, Annual Growth Rate, Percent of Total, CAGR)
  • Table 22. Annual Value of All Luggable Media Devices by Region (US$ in Millions, Annual Growth Rate, Percent of Total, CAGR)
• List of Figures
  • Figure 1. Annual Value of Luggable Media Devices by Category in North America (US$ in Millions)
  • Figure 2. Annual Value of Luggable Media Devices by Category in Europe (US$ in Millions)
  • Figure 3. Annual Value of Luggable Media Devices by Category in Asia (US$ in Millions)
  • Figure 4. Annual Value of Luggable Media Devices by Category in the ROW (US$ in Millions)
  • Figure 5. Annual Value of Luggable Media Devices by Category, Worldwide (US$ in Millions)
  • Figure 6. Annual Value of All Luggable Media Devices by Region (US$ in Millions)