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SUMMARY
This report forecasts the big trends for wireless handsets over the next five
years. Currently, this is over a $300 billion business selling over 2 billion
units annually. The future is created by a combination of technological
development, consumer demand, and value chain priorities. In-Stat surveyed
individuals from our Technology Adoption Panel to get a sense of where
consumer sentiment is today. Very few users, less than 5%, do not use at least
one of the technological innovations introduced in the past five years. The
value chain, which consists of the manufacturer, a distributor, the wireless
carrier, and, in about 25% of the respondents, the employer of the end-user,
needs an ongoing stream of innovation, as well as consumers who are open to
new features.
The big trends over the next five years include the following: Growth in the
Use of Defined Application Platforms as both SmartPhones and platforms for
feature phones; Greater Company Involvement in Wireless as needs expand to
incorporate applications in addition to voice; Adoption of Wireless Phones as
a Mobile Wallet; More Automated Worldwide Searches of the Worldwide Web using
voice activated searches and better input technology; Beefier Security on
phones; MVNOs will drive demand for Specialized Phones; and Individuals Will
Own Multiple Phones.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Executive Summary
Methodology
Introduction
Wireless Phone Market Drivers
- Forces Influencing the Future of Cell Phones
- Forecast Context
- User Needs, Preferences & Demand
- Carrier Supplier Ecosystem
- Phone Manufacturer Needs
- Wireless Phone Distributors
- Carrier Priorities
Big Cell Phone Trends
Phone Categories Trends Feature Phones SmartPhones
General Technology Trends
- Additional Capabilities
- Enhanced Usability & Connectivity
- Security & Protection
- Billing & Administration
Volume Forecast
- Unit Sales Volume
- Revenue
- Selected Phone Category Sales
List of Tables
- Table 1. Comparative Subscriber Statistics 2001 to 2005
- Table 2. Wireless Data Formats and Speeds
- Table 3. Worldwide Handset Shipment Forecast 2006-2011 (Units in Thousands)
- Table 4. Worldwide Handset Revenue Forecast, based on Average Manufacturer
Revenue (AMR) (US$ in Thousands)
- Table 5. Worldwide SmartPhone Cell Phone Forecast 2006-2011 (Units in
Thousands)
- Table 6. Worldwide Shipments Forecast of Handsets Incorporating Wi-Fi,
2006-2011 (Units in Thousands)
- Table 7. Worldwide Camera Phone Forecast 2006-2011 (Units in Thousands)
- Table 8. Worldwide Multimedia Cell Phone Forecast 2006-2011 (Units in
Thousands)
List of Figures
- Figure 1. Interest in Advanced Features among Respondents Wanting a
"Basic Phone"
- Figure 2. Interest in Services among Survey Respondents
- Figure 3. Features Used on Wireless Phones Today by In-Stat TAP Panel
- Figure 4. Attitude about Existing Wireless Phone
- Figure 5. Non-Phone Features on Phones of Respondents with "Just a Phone"
Attitude
- Figure 6. Interest in Features for Respondents wanting a "Basic Phone"
- Figure 7. Age Distribution of Respondents
- Figure 8. Income Distribution of Respondents
- Figure 9. Portable Electronics Purchases from Respondents
- Figure 10. Phone Brand used by Respondents
- Figure 11. Carriers to Which the Respondents Subscribe
- Figure 12. Time When Respondents Expect to Acquire their Next Wireless
Phone
- Figure 13. Respondents' Attitude towards Next Wireless Phones
- Figure 14. Type of Usage on the Primary Phone Used by Respondents
- Figure 15. Source of Current Wireless Phone
- Figure 16. Reimbursement Methods Used by Employers of Respondents
- Figure 17. Share by Carrier of Overall Sales and Sales via Their Web Site
- Figure 18. Air Link Used by Respondents that Acquired their Phone via the
Internet
- Figure 19. Wireless Phone Feature Preferences of Respondents
- Figure 20. Service Preferences of Respondents
- Figure 21. Willingness to Pay for Satellite Radio on a Wireless Phone
Correlated with Willingness to Pay for other Multimedia Services
- Figure 22. Interest in Bluetooth among Respondents Willing to Pay to View
Documents
- Figure 23. Correlation of Willingness to Pay for Custom Ringtones with the
Willingness to Pay for other Features
- Figure 24. Degree of Distress in Losing Wireless Phone or another Object
- Figure 25. Phone Brand among Respondents Given a Few Choices by their
Employer
- Figure 26. Portable Device Ownership of Nokia Users
- Figure 27. Usage Type for Primary Phone of Respondents
- Figure 28. Digital Camera Ownership among Camera Phone Owners
- Figure 29. Year to Year Change in Interest for Integrated MP3 Player in
Wireless Phone
- Figure 30. BlackBerry Users Response to Whether They Own a SmartPhone
- Figure 31. Reasons Why Users Acquired a SmartPhone
- Figure 32. The Number of Applications Downloaded by SmartPhone Users
- Figure 33. Interest in Push-To-Talk Service among Respondents
- Figure 34. Interest in Gaming among Respondents who May be Willing to Pay
for TV
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