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SUMMARY
As part of CIR's long history is researching the optoelectronics markets, the once niche-oriented HB-LED market is reaching a significant size and new technology developments promise to infuse HB-LEDs into nearly every aspect of modern life.The incandescent electric light is nearly everywhere in our daily lives yet it has not changed very much since first invented almost 100 years ago! Florescents and compact florescents are only about 30 years old. Simple red and green LEDs used as power on/off indicators in almost every electronic device today are manufactured in billions-per-month quantities. The HB-LED is the "indicator light on steroids" and the first truly innovative type of lamp invented in 30-plus years. These new semiconductor-based lights promise not only to replace incandescent and florescent lights in almost every application but also create some brand new applications that were not possible with conventional lamps.After slowly developing over many years in niche applications?costs are dropping and volumes are increasing at rapid rates. New visible colors, and wavelengths, even in infrared and ultraviolet regions, are emerging as promising new products. Brightness continues to inch upwards. HB-LEDs are finding new applications every day and the future product trends are in its favor, supporting increased usage. Beginning in very niche applications, HB-LEDs are now entering many mundane products such as televisions, PC displays, digital cameras, cell phones, automobiles and traffic lights, and general-purpose lighting. New investment is fueling new technology that is rapidly advancing and accelerating the state of the art. CIR's research team has seen rapid growth in many other markets including wireless, optical and telecom. The transition from "market niche" to "mainstream" is fraught with many hazards that have completely reset the leadership in other markets. With each new stage of growth come new challenges for manufacturers trying to manage the growth, capital investments and other resources, and not least? Figure out where the customer's head is going. It's not easy to get it right. Growth does not always materialize the way one expects, as many in the telecom industry will attest. Many times the dominant market leaders at the start of the race are not even in the game when the next phase of growth occurs. Manufacturers that will be the most successful will be those that can boil down the ocean of information and conflicting customer demands and focus on a few simple truths that are rooted in what the customer wants. This report is designed to provide guidance in this area and offer a detailed five-year market forecast ? In both volume and value terms. New and innovative applications are explored. CIR believes that the only way to carry out this work is to get into the mind of the customer, so we have conducted an extensive interview program with various suppliers and buyers up and down the supply chain in numerous application areas. As a result, this report is strongly grounded in a true understanding of customer requirements and market realities. New Uses Becoming Commonplace- Color cell phones, with industry sources forecasting shipments of over 500M units next year?up from 400M units (mostly monochrome)
- 17-inch+ screen LCD screens for notebook PCs and 19-to-21-inch LCDs for desktops replacing the bulky old glass CRT
- Large LCD flat-screen televisions and HB-LED-based projection televisions catching the accelerating "HDTV" wave
- Low cost, HB-LED-based personal projectors for your PDA and notebook PC?
- HB-LEDs are rekindling consumer interest even in simple, everyday devices such as flashlights and keychain lights
- In the automotive market, HB-LED are replacing tail lights, interior lights, and soon, even headlights
- Entire buildings are being lit externally in different colors schemes depending on the time of day turning light into a type of variable illumination "paint"
- Ultraviolet and infrared HB-LEDs are finding new military applications such as UV-LED canteen water treatment devices, flashlights that work with night vision goggles, and battlefield surgical sterilization.
- New white-light devices are being developed that fill in many different parts of the color spectrum enabling the products to penetrate further into the "holy grail" of general illumination
- Volumes for HB-LEDs are reaching tens of millions per month and triggering new economies of scale in manufacturing that are dropping costs substantially
- Advanced product development recently demonstrated quantum-dot LEDs and, soon, nanotechnology devices. More novel devices are on the horizon
CIR's research team has seen rapid growth in many other markets including wireless, optical and telecom. The transition from "market niche" to "mainstream" is fraught with many hazards that have completely reset the leadership in other markets. With each new stage of growth come new challenges for manufacturers trying to manage the growth, capital investments and other resources, and not least ? Figure out where the customer's head is going. It's not easy to get it right. Growth does not always materialize the way one expects, as many in the telecom industry will attest. Many times the dominant market leaders at the start of the race are not even in the game when the next phase of growth occurs. Manufacturers that will be the most successful will be those that can boil down the ocean of information and conflicting customer demands and focus on a few simple truths that are rooted in what the customer wants. This report is designed to provide guidance in this area and offer a detailed five-year market forecast ? In both volume and value terms. New and innovative applications are explored. CIR believes that the only way to carry out this work is to get into the mind of the customer, so we have conducted an extensive interview program with various suppliers and buyers up and down the supply chain in numerous application areas. As a result, this report is strongly grounded in a true understanding of customer requirements and market realities. Key objectives of this report:- To examine and summarize what customers want--identify evolving customer requirements.
- To examine the innovative new products and applications that could propel the industry into the next phase of growth.
- To provide a detailed five-year forecast of the mainstream devices, in both volume and values, in all of the key application areas.
- To propose scenarios on how the HB-LED industry could change as it transitions from niche to mainstream over the next five years with new capital, talent and innovators flocking to the field.
Questions Answered:- Why are some companies failing and other thriving in an upwards-growing market?
- What are some of the pitfalls to avoid?
- What will happen to the industry structure with new Asian-based manufacturing coming on line?
This Report Is Intended For:marketing, product planners, and strategists in HB-LED related firms at all levels of the HB-LED industry food chain from: - Manufacturing capital equipment
- Wafers and other material suppliers
- HB-LED designers and manufacturers
- Packaging manufacturers
- Lamp and fixture suppliers
- HB-LED buyers
This report will also be invaluable to both corporate and venture investors in carrying out due diligence in this sector. TABLE OF CONTENTS
Executive SummaryChapter One: Introduction- High Brightness-LED Applications-What Customers Want, and What New Products and Applications are On The Horizon
- Red Means Go - the Red HB-LED Breakthrough
- Stop Means Go-Stop Lights Fuel HB-LED Growth
- Future So Bright, You Have to Wear Shades
- Going Where No LED Has Gone Before
- The Next Phase
- The Importance of Thinking Like a Customer
- Key Objectives of This Report
- Scope of the Report-Research Methodology and Information Sources
Chapter Two: HB-LED Technology-Where Is It Going?- Introduction
- High-Brightness LEDs are Different and Disruptive
- Change Is Both Good and Bad
- Crossing Moore's Chasm-Niche Goes Mainstream
- Haitz's Law-Moore's Law for LEDs
- Incandescent Lamps
- Fluorescent Lamps
- Realities and Economics of LEDs
- Solid-State Lighting 101
- GaN 101: What is Gallium Nitride?
- LED Fabrication
- How do LEDs and HB-LEDs Work?
- Impurities Change Everything
- It's All In the Gap
- Heat Problems
- When Is an LED a High-Brightness LED?
- Light Output Patterns of LED and HB-LEDs
- How are High Brightness LEDs Different from Conventional LEDs?
- HB-LEDs Advantages and Disadvantages
- LEDs Advancing Innovations on Many Fronts
- It Takes More Than Just a Chip to Make a Useful Light
- LED Lighting Systems Advances
- New LED Semiconductor Architectures
- Innovative Chip Designs
- New Device Material Systems
- New Wafer Substrate Systems
- New Fabrication Processes
- Innovative Packaging
- Entire Device Designs
- Fixture Designs
- New System-level Design
- Disruptive Technology Threats To HB-LEDs
- OLEDs-Is This a Threat to GaN LEDs? Is It a Real Threat or PowerPoint Paper Tiger?
- Silicon-Based LEDs? Is This a Threat to GaN LEDs?
- Quantum Dot LEDs-Is This a Threat to GaN LEDs?
- Summary
- Cost, Cost and Cost
Chapter Three: LED Applications- Overview
- HB-LED Applications
- Automotive
- Exterior Lights
- Interior Lighting
- Future Applications
- Traffic Signals
- Rationale for LED Use In Traffic Signals
- Disadvantages of LEDs
- Signage
- Backlighting
- General Illumination with LEDs
- Innovative Applications
Chapter Four: LED Suppliers- Main Stream Suppliers
- Nichia
- Cree Inc.
- Osram Opto
- Lumileds Inc.
- GELcore
- Interesting Start-ups to Watch
- Lamina Ceramics-Multi-Chip LED Integrated Circuits
- Color Kinetics Inc. - Innovative LED-Based Lighting Systems
- Oriol Inc.
Chapter Five: Five-Year Forecast 2004-2008- Revenue Forecast
- Device Type Forecast by Revenue 2004-2008
- Device Type Forecast by Percentage of Revenue 2004-2008
- Average Selling Prices
- Unit Forecast
- Applications
Chapter Six: OEM Buyer Wants and Needs
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