Transmission Modules 10 Gbps and Below: 2007-Vol 1

SUMMARY

While much of the excitement in networking is currently to be found at 40 Gbps and above, most of the money is in the 10 Gbps and below segment. This report analyzes and forecasts the markets for transceivers, transponders and related products operating at 10 Gbps down to the lowest SONET/SDH rates and discusses how the leading firms in this space are planning their product and marketing strategies for the future.

CIR's new transmission modules report analyzes and quantifies all of the key market opportunities in the transceiver and transponder modules business through 2012. It covers Ethernet, Fibre Channel, parallel optics, PONs, SONET/SDH and WDM and addresses the impact of new signal processing technology (including EDC), optical integration/silicon photonics, and other emerging technologies on the module market. Detailed volume and value forecasts are provided for each protocol covered broken out by data rates, MSA, technology platform, reach, etc. The report also provides an analysis of current strategies of key players in the optical modules space.

Methodology of Report

This report is based primarily on interviews and briefings with leading suppliers of transceiver and transponder modules, conducted in the first four months of 2007. In addition, we have based some of our analysis and projections on our understanding of the likely expenditures by service providers, IT departments and datacom network managers in the next few years.

In addition to the primary research we conducted, we have also drawn on previous CIR reports covering related areas; CIR has been covering the fiber-optics sector since the 1980s. We have also made use of knowledge built up during our many custom consulting assignments related to optical components and modules. Product data sheets, marketing documents and company Web sites were yet additional sources of secondary information.

The forecasting methodology is explained more fully in the chapter on forecasting, but ultimately goes back to our assessment of port counts, some of which are provided in the main body of this report. Based on this we have assessed how many of those ports will be built with transponders and transceivers and then using our understanding of the current needs of networks, we have broken those numbers out by protocol, data rate, standard, MSA, etc., as appropriate.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive Summary

• E.1 Current Business Conditions in the Modules Market
• E.2 Key Opportunities in the Modules Market
  • E.2.1 10 Gbps is Still the Sweet Spot
  • E.2.2 Opportunities, Standards and MSAs
  • E.2.3 New Opportunities for WDM and the Aging of SONET/SDH
  • E.2.4 Opportunities in PONs
  • E.2.5 Opportunities Below 10 Gbps
• E.3 Summary of Forecasts
• E.4 Long-Term Direction for the Modules Market: Life Beyond Telecom?

Chapter One: Introduction

• 1.1 Background to Report
  • 1.1.1 The Video Factor: Implications for Module Makers
  • 1.1.2 Optics vs. Copper/TDM vs. WDM: Implications for Module Makers
• 1.2 Objective and Scope of Report
• 1.3 Methodology of Report
• 1.4 Plan of Report

Chapter Two: Modules Technology, Standards and MSAs

• 2.1 Introduction
  • 2.1.1 Transceivers and Transponders
  • 2.1.2 TOSAs and ROSAs
  • 2.1.3 Impact of Optical Integration
  • 2.1.4 Impact of EDC
• 2.2 What's New in Modules at 10 Gbps and Under?
  • 2.2.1 GigE and Fibre Channel
  • 2.2.2 SONET/SDH and WDM
  • 2.2.3 PONs
  • 2.3 10-Gbps Modules, Standards and MSAs
  • 2.3.1 A Future for 300-pin and XENPAK?
  • 2.3.2 Whither XPAK and X2?
  • 2.3.3 XFP
  • 2.3.4 SFP +
  • 2.3.5 More on LRM
  • 2.3.6 10GBASE-T
  • 2.3.7 10GigE and POF
• 2.4 Tunable Modules
  • 2.4.1 The State of Tunable Lasers
  • 2.4.2 MSAs and Tunable Modules

Chapter Three: Modules, Markets and Networking

• 3.1 Current Evolution of the Public Network
  • 3.1.1 Analysis of Module Requirements by Public Network Segment
  • 3.1.2 The Impact of Video
• 3.2 SONET Markets
  • 3.2.1 OC-192 Deployment
  • 3.2.2 The Persistence of Sub-OC-192 Rates
  • 3.2.3 The Challenge to OC-192 from OC-768 and 100 Gbps
• 3.3 Optical Networking and WDM Markets
  • 3.3.1 WDM in the Long-Haul, Metro and Access Networks
  • 3.3.2 WDM vs. 40 Gbps
  • 3.3.3 Tunability
• 3.4 PONs
• 3.5 The Evolution of Ethernet in the Corporate Backbone, Data Center Market and Residential Environment
  • 3.4.1 Servers as the First "Mass Market" for 10GigE
  • 3.4.2 The Evolution of Ethernet-to-the-Desk and Residential Ethernet
• 3.5 The New Parallel Optics
• 3.6 Fibre Channel
  • 3.6.1 FC Beyond 4G

Chapter Four: Major Module Firms and Their Strategies

• 4.1 Introduction
  • 4.1.1 A Note on Asian Modules Makers
• 4.2 Avago
• 4.3 Avanex
• 4.4 Bookham
• 4.5 CyOptics
• 4.6 Finisar
• 4.7 Intel
• 4.8 JDSU
• 4.9 OCP
• 4.10 Opnext
• 4.11 PON Diplexer and Triplexer Suppliers

Chapter Five: Five-Year Forecasts

• 5.1 Forecasting Methodology
• 5.2 Forecast of Ethernet Modules by Speed, Reach and MSA
• 5.3 Forecast of Fibre Channel Modules by Data Rate
• 5.4 Forecast of Parallel Optics Modules
• 5.5 Forecast of SONET/SDH Modules by Data Rate, Reach and MSA
• 5.6 Forecast of WDM Modules by Data Rate, Reach and MSA
• 5.7 PON Transceiver Forecasts

Abbreviations and Acronyms Used in this Report

List of Exhibits

• Exhibit E-1:Strategies in the FTTx Components and Modules Market
• Exhibit E-2: Worldwide Transmission Modules Markets: 2006-2012
• Exhibit 2-1: PON Technologies
• Exhibit 2-2: IEEE Standards and their Key Features
• Exhibit 2-3: MSA Features
• Exhibit 3-1: Evolution of the SONET/SDH Market by Speed: 2006-2012 (000s Ports Shipped)
• Exhibit 3-2: Evolution of the WDM Market by Speed: 2006-2012 (000s Wavelengths Shipped)
• Exhibit 3-3: Evolution of the FTTx (Millions of Subscribers Added in Year)
• Exhibit 3-4: Evolution of the Ethernet Market by Speed 2006-2012 (000s Ports Shipped)
• Exhibit 3-5: Evolution of the 10GigE Market by IEEE Standards 2006-2012 (000s Ports Shipped)
• Exhibit 3-6: Evolution of the Fibre Channel Market by Speed (Millions Ports Shipped)
• Exhibit 3-7: Directions for the New 8-Gbps Fibre Channel Standards
• Exhibit 4-1: Selected Suppliers of Non-Commodity PON Transceivers
• Exhibit 5-1: The Ethernet Transceiver Market by Data Rate: 2006-2012
• Exhibit 5-2: 10-GigE Module Shipments by Reach: 2006-2012 (000s)
• Exhibit 5-3: 10-GigE Module Shipments by MSA: 2006-2012
• Exhibit 5-4: The Fibre Channel Transceiver Market by Data Rate: 2006-2012
• Exhibit 5-5: The 10 Gbps and 8 Gbps Fibre Channel Transceiver Market: 2006-2012
• Exhibit 5-6: The Parallel Optics Modules Market: 2006-2012
• Exhibit 5-7: The SONET/SDH Module Market by Data Rate: 2006-2012
• Exhibit 5-8: OC-192 Module Markets by Reach: 2006-2012
• Exhibit 5-9: OC-192 Module Markets by MSA: 2006-2012
• Exhibit 5-10: The WDM Module Market by Data Rate and CWDM/DWDM Breakout: 2006-2012
• Exhibit 5-11: 10 Gbps and Above WDM Module Markets by Reach: 2006-2012
• Exhibit 5-12: WDM Module Markets by MSA: 2006-2012
• Exhibit 5-13: PON Transceiver Markets: 2006-2012
• Exhibit 5-14: Worldwide Transmission Modules Markets: 2006-2012