The Path to 100 Gbps Networks

SUMMARY

This upcoming report from CIR revisits the evolution of networking beyond today's 10 GigE and OC-768 thresholds. We originally discussed this issue in a November 2006 report and much has changed in the past year. There is a real momentum towards achieving 100 Gbps capabilities, with an interim 40 Gbps Ethernet that technologically viable even now. Major standards efforts are underway at the IEEE. Vendors are scrambling to define their product roadmaps. The trade press is pushing out articles. Suddenly it looks like 2001 all over again when OC-768 was all the rage.

In late 2000 it was our position that contrary to the conventional wisdom of the day, the OC-768 market would require several years to develop. Here in 2008 it is only now that vendors are achieving even modest volumes. So what does this mean for the 100/40 Gbps Ethernet market today? Is there a real opportunity here any time soon? Should the industry really care? Should we expect to see any significant developments in the next few years that will reflect significant revenue opportunities or will we see a repeat of the slow and somewhat frustrating process that defined OC-768. In this new report CIR address all of these questions as well as providing new analysis and forecasting of the opportunities for lasers, TOSAs, ROSAs, transceivers, multiplexers, cabling, amplifiers, WDM components and many other products that are emerging as the data communications industry gets ready for 100 Gbps and 40 Gbps Ethernets. Both optical networking components and networking silicon will be discussed and in the context of how this market will affect both established vendors and potential new entrants.

This report will explain and quantify the demand for the new Ethernet speeds, covering the needs of large data centers, high-performance computing applications and of a variety of service providers and carriers. It will discuss how the emerging standards for the next wave of high-speed networking standards will both fit in with and replace older standards such as Fibre Channel, InfiniBand and SONET. It will give special attention to the implications of the key standards making efforts at the IEEE and predict what the likely commercial implications will be. It answers such thorny questions: which of the many options defined by the IEEE will actually make it to market? And what will the role of the ITU be in establishing the next wave of standards? The report will also discuss the role that MSAs will have in this new revolution in networking.

The report will contain up-to-date profiles of the latest R&D and product development activity of the leading component and transceiver vendors. It will also include CIR's latest forecasts of port counts for 40 and 100 Gbps Ethernets.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive Summary

• E.1 Current and Future Market Environment for Next-Generation Networks
  • E.1.1 Paradigms Emerging
  • E.1.2 Just the Beginning for 100 Gbps
  • E.1.3 Emerging Options for High-Speed Networking
  • E.1.4 New Materials, Manufacturing Processes and Component Types for High-Speed Networks
• E.2 Summary of Key Opportunities in Next-Generation Networks
  • E.2.1 Active Optics
  • E.2.2 WDM Products
  • E.2.3 Media
  • E.2.4 Networking Silicon
• E.3 Firms Active in the Space
• E.4 Summary of Forecasts

Chapter One: Introduction

• 1.1 Background to this Report
  • 1.1.1 If You Make It, They Shall Come
• 1.2 Objectives of this Report
• 1.3 Scope of this Report
• 1.4 Methodology and Information Sources for Report
• 1.5 Plan of this Report

Chapter Two: Why and Where Is Beyond 10-Gig Needed?

• 2.1 Introduction
• 2.2 The Impact of Video on Bandwidth Demand
  • 2.2.1 Thoughts on Videoconferencing
  • 2.2.2 Thoughts on Telemedicine and Telelearning
  • 2.2.3 Consumer Video: The Real Video Driver
• 2.3 The Role of High-Performance Computing
  • 2.3.1 The Trouble with InfiniBand
• 2.4 Servers, Data Centers and Enterprise Networks
  • 2.4.1 Faster Interfaces and Aggregation: Fibre Channel and PCI Express
• 2.5 Central Offices, POPs and Internet Exchanges
  • 2.5.1 VSR OC-768
• 2.6 Long-Haul, Metro and Access Networks
  • 2.6.1 What Will Carrier 100 Gbps Look Like?

Chapter Three: Evolution of Technology for 100 Gbps Networks

• 3.1 Introduction
  • 3.1.1 Integration Imperative
  • 3.1.2 Parallel vs. Serial Transmission
• 3.2 The Role for Optical Integration and Silicon Photonics
  • 3.2.1 Materials Platforms for Optical Integration
  • 3.2.2 Optical Integration and High-Speed Networking
• 3.3 Potential for Serial and Parallel Solutions for High-speed Optical Networks
• 3.4 Lasers, TOSAs and Modulators
  • 3.4.1 Advanced Modulation Schemes
• 3.5 Detectors, Receivers and ROSAs
• 3.6 WDM and Waveguide Products
• 3.7 Amplifications and Dispersion Compensation for Next-Generation Networking
• 3.8 Media
  • 3.8.1 Multi-mode Fiber
  • 3.8.2 Single-Mode Fiber
  • 3.8.3 The Future of Parallel Optics
  • 3.8.4 Active Optical Cabling
  • 3.8.5 A Future for Copper?

Chapter Four: Evolution of Standards and MSAs Beyond 10-Gig

• 4.1 Introduction
  • 4.1.1 100 G Will Need More Cooperation on Standards Development
  • 4.1.2 Rethinking MSAs
• 4.2 The Higher Speed Ethernet Task Group
  • 4.2.1 Ethernets of the Past
  • 4.2.2 The IEEE process for the Next-Gen Ethernet
  • 4.2.3 Data Rates and How to Achieve Them
  • 4.2.4 40-Gbps Alternatives
  • 4.2.5 100-Gbps Alternatives
• 4.3 What Will Be the Role of ITU Standards?
  • 4.3.1 SONET/SDH and Ethernet
  • 4.3.2 Likely Future Directions for SONET/SDH:
  • 4.3.3 Ethernet in a SONET/SDH World and the OTN
• 4.4 The Role of OIF
• 4.5 Use and Evolution of MSAs for 40- and 100-Gbps Networks
  • 4.5.1 300-pin Transponders
  • 4.5.2 XENPAK
  • 4.5.3 XFP and SFP+
  • 4.5.4 QSFP
  • 4.5.5 SNAP12
  • 4.5.6 POP4
  • 4.5.7 Which MSA is likely to win?

Chapter Five: Eight-Year Forecasts of 40-Gbps and 100-Gbps Data Networks

• 5.1 Introduction
  • 5.1.1 A Note on Pre-Standard Products
  • 5.1.2 A Timetable for Next-Generation Ethernet
  • 5.1.3 A View on 10-Gbps Networking
• 5.2 Forecasts for Evolution of 40-Gbps and 100-Gbps Ethernet: 2009 to 2016
  • 5.2.1 Server Infrastructure Growth
  • 5.2.2 Server Penetration Projections
  • 5.2.3 Switch Port Projections
• 5.3 Forecasts for Evolution of 40-Gbps and 100-Gbps Pricing and Market Value
  • 5.3.1 Forecasts for 40 Gbps and 100 Gbps by Application Type
• 5.4 The Future at 40 Gbps
  • 5.4.1 Alternative Scenario: Life Without 40GigE
• 5.5 A Note on Parallelism
• 5.6 Components Opportunity Forecast
  • Acronyms and Abbreviations Used in this Report
  • About the Author

Table of Figures:

• Exhibit E-1: The Paths to Higher Speed Networks
• Exhibit E-2: Applications and Markets for Next-Generation Networks
• Exhibit E-3: Options and Opportunities from Next-Generation Networks
• Exhibit E-4: Summary Eight-Year Market Forecasts of 100 Gbps and 40 Gbps ($ Millions)
• Exhibit 1-1: Component, Module and Subsystem Products Covered in this Report
• Exhibit 2-1: InfiniBand Formats and Data Rates
• Exhibit 2-2: Directions for the New 8-Gbps Fibre Channel Standards
• Figure 1-1: Fibre Channel Roadmap (Source: Fibre Channel Industry Association)
• Exhibit 3-1: Technology Directions for 40- and 100-Gigabit Networks Adopted By the IEEE
• Exhibit 3-2: Problems to be Overcome in Serial 100G Networks
• Exhibit 3-3: Opportunities for Optical Integration in High-Speed Networks
• Exhibit 3-4: New Laser Integrated Products for Parallel Solutions
• Exhibit 3-5: NRZ at High Line Rates
• Exhibit 3-6: Technology Choices: Opportunities and Timetables in the Transmission Segment
• Exhibit 3-7: Modulation Format Characteristics for Higher Speed Networking
• Figure 4-2: IEEE 802.3ab Higher Speed Ethernet Standards Development Schedule
• Exhibit 4-1: IEEE Higher Speed Task Group 40 and 100-Gigabit Laser Considerations
• Figure 4-3: Luxtera's Active Cable Assembly Using the QSFP
• Figure 4-4: 300-pin VSR Transponder Using SNAP12 Modules (Source: Cisco)
• Exhibit 5-1: A Provisional Timetable for Next-Generation Ethernet
• Exhibit 5-2: Evolution of Gigabit Networks
• Exhibit 5-3: Forecast of 40 GigE and 100 GigE Markets
• Exhibit 5-4: Forecast of Server Markets for 40 GigE and 100 GigE
• Exhibit 5-5: Forecast of Switch Markets for 40 GigE and 100 GigE
• Exhibit 5-6: Forecast of Router Markets for 40 GigE and 100 GigE
• Exhibit 5-7: Forecast of Emerging Ethernet Markets by Application ($ Millions)
• Exhibit 5-8: Future Options at 40 Gbps
• Exhibit 5-9: Forecast of 100 GigE Markets if 40 GigE Does Not Appear
• Exhibit 5-10: Forecast of Next-Generation Ethernet Components