Data Communications Transceiver Markets: The Next Five Years

SUMMARY

This new report from CIR provides our latest forecasts of data communications transceivers for the years 2008 to 2013. With the new and growing emphasis of the networking community on video and on cloud computing, we are clearly on the verge of the next leap forward in networking data rates; a trend that will impact every kinds of transceiver market.

This report examines where the opportunities in data communications transceivers are to be found. We examine which new enabling technologies and which market drivers will make 10 GigE the mainstream version of Ethernet and how Fibre Channel will gradually evolve to 8 Gbps and 16 Gbps speeds. We will also take a look at how parallel optics and CWDM will fit into the networking architectures of the future and how the various overlapping MSAs will play themselves out in the market. The report also discusses how the leading firms in the datacom transceiver space are planning their product and marketing strategies for the future.

CIR's new data communications transceiver report analyzes and quantifies all of the key market opportunities in this business including the latest developments in the MSA saga and the impact of optical integration, silicon photonics and other new technologies on this market. Detailed volume and value forecasts are provided for each protocol covered broken out by data rates, MSA, technology platform, reach, etc.

Methodology of Report

This report is based primarily on interviews and briefings conducted in the first four months of 2008 with leading suppliers of transceivers and networking equipment. In addition, some analysis and projections were based on understanding the likely expenditures by service providers, IT departments, and datacom network managers in the next few years. Primary research was supplemented with information from previous CIR reports covering related areas as well as from knowledge gained during many custom consulting assignments related to optical components and modules. Product data sheets, marketing documents, and company Web sites were yet additional sources of secondary information. The forecasting methodology is explained more fully in Chapter Three but ultimately goes back to assessment of port counts, some of which are provided in the main body of the report. These are derived from information gained from equipment manufacturers and end users combined with familiarity of the current needs of networks. Forecasts are broken down by protocol, data rate, standard, MSA, etc., as appropriate.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive Summary

• E.1 Current Business Conditions in the Datacom Transceiver Market
• E.2 Key Opportunities in the Modules Market
  • E.2.1 Opportunities Below 10 Gbps
  • E.2.2 10 Gbps Growth
  • E.2.3 Opportunities, Standards and MSAs
• E.3 Summary of Forecasts
• E.4 Long-Term Direction for the Datacom Transceiver Market

Chapter One: Introduction

• 1.1 Background to Report
  • 1.1.1 Shifts in Applications: Video and Cloud Computing
  • 1.1.2 The Future Role of Optics in a Copper World
• 1.2 Objective and Scope of Report
• 1.3 Methodology of Report
• 1.4 Plan of Report

Chapter Two: Transceiver Technology, Standards and MSAs

• 2.1 Enabling Technologies
  • 2.1.1 Impact of Optical Integration
  • 2.1.2 Impact of Silicon Photonics
  • 2.1.3 WDM Technology
  • 2.1.4 Active Optical Cabling
  • 2.1.5 Other New Directions in Optical and Copper Cabling
  • 2.1.6 New Directions in Electronics Including EDC
• 2.2 Standards Evolution
  • 2.2.1 10-Gigabit Ethernet
  • 2.2.2 Fibre Channel: To 8 Gbps and Beyond
• 2.3 MSA Evolution
  • 2.3.1 A Future for 300-pin and XENPAK?
  • 2.3.2 Whither XPAK and X2?
  • 2.3.3 The Future Market XFP
  • 2.3.4 SFP+
  • 2.3.5 Parallel Optics and Its MSAs

Chapter Three: Markets, Applications and Forecasts

• 3.1 Introduction and Approach to Forecast
  • 3.1.1 Changes from Last Year's Forecast
• 3.2 Evolution of Information Technology and Networking
  • 3.2.1 The Impact of Cloud Computing
  • 3.2.2 The Impact of Video
  • 3.2.3 The Impact of Mobile Computing
• 3.3 Ethernet Markets
  • 3.3.1 Residential Ethernet Forecasts
  • 3.3.2 Business Ethernet Forecasts
  • 3.3.3 Forecast of Ethernet by Media
  • 3.3.4 Servers, Data Centers and the First Mass Markets for 10 GigE
  • 3.3.5 Forecast of 10 GigE by IEEE Standard
  • 3.3.6 Forecast of 10 GigE by MSA
  • 3.3.7 A Note on 10 GigE and PCs
  • 3.3.8 A Note on 10 GigE and Residential Ethernet
  • 3.3.9 The Future of GigE
  • 3.3.10 A Final Summary Forecast of Ethernet
• 3.4 Fibre Channel, InfiniBand, and Parallel Optics
  • 3.4.1 Fibre Channel Market Analysis
  • 3.4.2 Fibre Channel Market Forecasts
  • 3.4.3 InfiniBand and Parallel Optics Analysis
  • 3.4.4 Parallel Optics Market Forecasts
• 3.5 Summary of Markets

Chapter Four: Key Transceiver Firms and Their Strategies

• 4.1 Introduction
• 4.2 Avago
• 4.3 Finisar
• 4.4 Intel (now Emcore)
• 4.5 JDSU
• 4.6 Luxtera
• 4.7 MergeOptics
• 4.8 OCP (Now part of Oplink)
• 4.9 Opnext
• 4.10 A Note on Asian Modules Makers

Acronyms and Abbreviations Used in this Report

About the Author

List of Exhibits

• Exhibit E-1: Datacom Transceiver Market Forecasts ($ Millions)
• Exhibit 2-1: New Laser Integrated Products for Parallel Solutions
• Exhibit 2-2: 10-GigE Dispersion Solutions
• Exhibit 2-3: IEEE Standards and their Key Features
• Exhibit 2-4: Directions for the New 8-Gbps Fibre Channel Standards
• Exhibit 3-1: PC Shipments, 2008 to 2013
• Exhibit 3-2: Residential Ethernet Shipments by Type of Equipment
• Exhibit 3-3: Residential Ethernet Shipments by Data Rate
• Exhibit 3-4: Business Ethernet Shipments by Type of Equipment
• Exhibit 3-5: Business Ethernet Shipments by Data Rate
• Exhibit 3-6: Ethernet Shipments by Media (Millions)
• Exhibit 3-7: 10 GigE Shipments by IEEE Standard (Millions)
• Exhibit 3-8: 10 GigE Shipments by MSA and IEEE Standards
• Exhibit 3-9: 10 GigE Shipments by MSA ($ Million)
• Exhibit 3-10: 10 GigE Shipments by IEEE Specs ($ Million)
• Exhibit 3-11: Ethernet Market Value: Analysis
• Exhibit 3-12: Ethernet Market Value: By Data Rate ($ Millions)
• Exhibit 3-13: Ethernet Market Value: By Media ($ Millions)
• Exhibit 3-14: Fiber Channel Shipments (Millions)
• Exhibit 3-15: Fiber Channel Pricing ($)
• Exhibit 3-16: Fiber Channel Market ($ Millions)
• Exhibit 3-17: 8/10 Fiber Channel Shipments by MSA
• Exhibit 3-18: Parallel Optics Forecasts
• Exhibit 3-19: Datacom Transceiver Market Forecasts ($ Millions)