Telecom Transceiver and Transponder Markets: The Next Five Years

SUMMARY

This new report from CIR provides our latest forecasts of transceivers and transponders for the public networking environment for the years 2008 to 2013. The report focuses especially on what will be required of these products to take public networking into the world of the ITU-defined Optical Transport Network (OTN) in which Ethernet rather than SONETD SDH will dominate.

This report discusses the opportunities that are likely to emerge as the result of this transition. For example, it will take a look at how OC-768, 40 GigE and 100 GigE are likely to coexist in carrier networks and what this will mean to transceiverD transponder makers. It will also examine future reach requirements for transceivers and transponders and what parts of the network will be biggest revenue earners; long-haul, metro or access. With regard to access, we will also examine current opportunities for PON transceivers; an ultra-high volume, ultra-low margin market, if ever there was one.

Also in this report, we review key enabling technologies for public network transmission modules and how the many and how the various overlapping MSAs will play themselves out in the market. The report also discusses how the leading firms in the telecom transceiverD transponder space are planning their product and marketing strategies for the future.

CIR's new telecom transceiver report analyzes and quantifies all of the key market opportunities in this business. Detailed volume and value forecasts are provided for each protocol covered broken out by data rates, MSA, technology platform, reach, etc.

Methodology of Report

In the last four months, leading suppliers of transceivers and networking equipment were interviewed. Resulting from these discussions, analyses are used to determine the health and viability of the market. In addition, some scrutiny and projections were based on understanding the likely expenditures by service providers, IT departments, and network managers over the next few years.

Primary research was supplemented with information from previous CIR reports covering related areas as well as knowledge gained during many custom consulting assignments related to optical components and modules. Product data sheets, marketing documents, and company Web sites were yet additional sources of secondary information.

The forecasting methodology is explained more fully later in the report, but ultimately goes back to assessment of port counts, some of which are provided in the main body of the report. These are derived by information gained from equipment manufacturers and end users combined with familiarity of the current needs of networks. Forecasts are broken down by technology platform, data rate, standard, MSA, etc., as appropriate.

Plan of Report

Chapter Two outlines the latest optical transceiver technology, standards, and MSA developments. In Chapter Three, the key dynamics shaping the telecom transceiver/transponder business are discussed, and detailed forecasts are given. Chapter Four highlights the top transceiver manufacturers in the marketplace and delineates their strengths, weaknesses, and strategies.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive Summary

• E.1 Current Business Conditions in the Telecom Transceiver/Transponder Market
• E.2 Key Opportunities in the Telecom Modules Market
  • E.2.1 OC-768 Deployment Becoming a Reality
  • E.2.2 10 Gbps is Still the Sweet Spot for SONET/SDH
  • E.2.3 Opportunities, Standards and MSAs
  • E.2.4 New Opportunities for WDM and the Aging of SONET/SDH
  • E.2.5 Opportunities in PONs
• E.3 Summary of Forecasts
• E.4 Long-Term Direction for the Transceivers/Transponders Market: Life Beyond Telecom?

Chapter One: Introduction

• 1.1 Background to Report
  • 1.1.1 Shifts in Applications: Video and Cloud Computing
  • 1.1.2 Shifts in Technology: OTN and 40/100-Gbps Backbones
• 1.2 Objectives and Scope of Report
• 1.3 Methodology of Report
• 1.4 Plan of Report

Chapter Two: Transceiver/Transponder Technology, Standards, and MSAs

• 2.1 Transceivers and Transponders
  • 2.1.1 TOSAs and ROSAs
• 2.2 Enabling Technologies 2.2.1 Impact of Optical Integration and Silicon Photonics
  • 2.2.2 Influential Developments in Tunable Laser and Other WDM Technology
  • 2.2.3 WDM versus 40 Gbps
  • 2.2.4 Impact of New Dispersion Compensation Technology
• 2.3 Standards Evolution
  • 2.3.1 The ITU, OTN and the End of SONET
  • 2.3.2 Ethernet: How 40/100 GigE Will be Adapted to Public Networks
  • 2.3.3 Next PONs: WDM and 10 Gbps
• 2.4 MSA Evolution
  • 2.4.1 A Future for 300-pin and XENPAK?
  • 2.4.2 Whither XPAK and X2?
  • 2.4.3 The Role of XFP and SFP+ in the Public Network
  • 2.4.4 40-Gbps MSAs
  • 2.4.5 MSA for Tunable Transponders

Chapter Three: Transceivers, Transponders and Markets

• 3.1 Applications Drivers for Infrastructure Building in the Public Network
  • 3.1.1 Video
• 3.2 TOSA/ROSA Markets
• 3.3 Long-haul and Ultra-long Haul Networks
  • 3.3.1 Network Evolution
  • 3.3.2 Transponder/Transceiver Requirements
• 3.4 Metro Networks
  • 3.4.1 Network Evolution
  • 3.4.2 Transponder/Transceiver Requirements
• 3.5 Access Networks
  • 3.5.1 PON Developments
  • 3.5.2 Transponder/Transceiver Requirements
• 3.6 SONET/SDH Forecasts
• 3.7 WDM Forecasts
• 3.8 PON Forecasts

Chapter Four: Major Module Firms and Their Strategies

• 4.1 Introduction
• 4.2 Avanex
• 4.3 BinOptics
• 4.4 Bookham
• 4.5 CyOptics
• 4.6 Finisar
• 4.7 Intel (now Emcore)
• 4.8 JDSU
• 4.9 OCP (now Oplink)
• 4.10 Opnext
• 4.11 OpVista
• 4.12 PON Diplexer and Triplexer Suppliers
• 4.13 A Note on Asian Modules Makers

Acronyms and Abbreviations Used in this Report

List of Exhibits

• Exhibit E-1: Strategies in the FTTx Components and Modules Market
• Exhibit 2-1: New Laser Integrated Products for Parallel Solutions
• Exhibit 2-2: Types, Mechanisms and Suppliers of Telecom Tunable Lasers
• Exhibit 2-3: PON Technologies
• Figure 1-4: 10-Gig Transceiver/Transponder Form Factors
• Exhibit 3-1: The SONET/SDH Module Market by Data Rate
• Exhibit 3-2: OC-192 Module Markets by Reach: 2007-2013
• Exhibit 3-3: OC-192 Module Markets by MSA: 2007-2013
• Exhibit 3-4: OC-768 Module Markets by Reach: 2007-2013
• Exhibit 3-5: The WDM Module Market by Data Rate and CWDM/DWDM Breakout: 2007-2013
• Exhibit 3-6: 10 Gbps and Above WDM Module Markets by Reach: 2007-2013
• Exhibit 3-7: WDM Module Markets by MSA: 2007-2013
• Exhibit 3-8: Evolution of the FTTx (Millions of Subscribers Added in Year)
• Exhibit 3-9: PON Transceiver Markets: 2007-2013
• Exhibit 3-10: Worldwide Transmission Modules Markets: 2007-2013 ($ Millions)
• Exhibit 4-1: Selected Suppliers of Non-Commodity PON Transceivers