Mobile Consumer Update; data, data, data

SUMMARY

An introduction to the report

Discussion in the consumer space ultimately revolves around ARPU. What is the consumer likely and willing to pay for, going forward?

This report takes a top-down look at how consumer expenditure is likely to change over time, and how it will be shared between handsets and services.

Analyzing key trends and industry dynamics affecting the marketplace and presenting the threats and opportunities, Mobile Consumer Update; data, data, data is an essential tool for organizations competing along the mobile Internet value chain.

Scope and coverage of the report

• Mobile phone shipments - by country, network technology and new uptake versus renewals
• Penetration rates - by country and network technology
• Messaging - by country according to SMS, MMS, email and instant messaging, (volumes and revenues)
• Content - by country and content type (infotainment, multimedia, gaming, location-based services, mCommerce and other services)

Report methodology

This report is founded on extensive research conducted in Europe, Asia-Pacific and the US. Data comes from a variety of sources, both primary and secondary. Several device manufacturers have been interviewed, as well as operators, content developers, equipment manufacturers and technology vendors. In addition, reference has been made to company reports, Internet offerings, the IT press and Datamonitor's internal research.

Key findings and report highlights

• Although the increase in ARPU from mobile data will not offset the fall in voice ARPU, this is still good news for operators who mainly rely on SMS for data revenues. Mobile content revenues are set to increase from $6 billion in 2002 to $38 billion in 2006, while mobile messaging revenues will grow from $17.4 billion to $29 billion.
• Datamonitor does not believe that MMS will generate revenues greater than those of SMS in the next few years. MMS revenues will reach a total of $11.3 billion in 2006. SMS, meanwhile, will generate $12.6 billion in 2006.

Report structure chapter by chapter

This report contains four main chapters:

• Increased Opportunities - Details where the real opportunities lie on a qualitative and quantitative basis
• Over-Hyped Opportunities - Demonstrates where the industry has over-stated the opportunity for a specific technology or business opportunity
• The Future Decoded - Forecasts the market opportunity from 2002 to 2006, detailing mobile phone shipments and penetration rates by geography and device type. Data usage is also presented with messaging weighed against other types of mContent
• Food for Thought - Explains key action points that device manufacturers, wireless operators, equipment manufacturers and application developers need to be aware of

Why buy this report?

• Detailed forecasts of mobile device and data markets are invaluable for strategic planning
• Explains the real opportunities available in the mobile consumer market, highlighting the mobile data and mobile gaming prospects
• Cuts through the hype and demonstrates where the industry has got carried away - explaining why MMS revenues will not overtake SMS revenues, and why mPayments (excluding payment for digital content) won't take off until beyond 2005

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Summary of contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• Increased opportunities
• Over-hyped opportunities
• The future decoded
• Food for thought

CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION

• What is this report about?
• Who is the target reader?
• How to use this report
• Report methodology
• Report scope
• Client feedback

CHAPTER 2: INCREASED OPPORTUNITIES

• Data ARPUs are set to rise globally
• Mobile gaming - a niche with serious potential

CHAPTER 3: OVER-HYPED OPPORTUNITIES

• Mobile payments
• MMS revenues will not overtake SMS

CHAPTER 4: THE FUTURE DECODED

• Mobile phone shipments
• Mobile messaging
• Mobile content

CHAPTER 5: FOOD FOR THOUGHT

• Operators must look to bundle application suites into
• 2.5G devices and ensure that they are fully functional
• once the user leaves the retail outlet.
• Operators must establish a subscription charging
• model for IM as early as possible.
• Application developers and content providers must
• look to take advantage of the potential of the North
• American market.
• Lower tier handset manufacturers must ensure that
• they do not become 'box-shifters'.

CHAPTER 6: SUPPLEMENTARY DATA

• Mobile phone shipments
• Mobile messaging
• Mobile content

CHAPTER 7: APPENDIX

• Future readings
• SPP writing team