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SUMMARY
Overview
Introduction
Despite the imposition of the first phase of the EU directives in July 2004
and the European Commission's aim of bringing about a single European energy
market, there are still wide variations in competitive conditions in Europe's
energy markets. These differences impact all elements of the value chain from
wholesale supply procurement, through transportation right through to end user
pricing.
Scope
- Insight into the current levels of competitiveness in 20 key markets.
- Forecasts of future competitive dynamics and their evolution throughout
the gas and power value chains.
- Forecasts of switching rates in the residential and non-residential
sectors verified by over 100 expert interviews with market players.
Report Highlights
The markets covered in this report are Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech
Republic, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia,
the Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and the UK.
Despite the fact that each market will continue to have its own unique
idiosyncrasies and barriers and enablers to entry, a common theme across most
markets will be the need to attack the positions of incumbent monopolies and
the problems associated with overcoming consumer apathy and lack of knowledge
regarding switching.
The ways in which individual markets become more attractive will also vary
widely. Different markets will become more attractive to new entrants as a
result of widely different value chain elements improving and facilitating
competition.
Reasons to Purchase
- Assess the competitive environments in 20 of key gas and power markets
both now and in the future.
- Gain insight into value chain factors driving market competitiveness and
how each individual part of the chain will evolve as competition develops.
- Screen future market entry plans against the MCI scores to highlight key
areas of potential risk and opportunity.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
- CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Competitive intensity in the gas and power markets isunsurprisingly lead
by the UK with widely varying conditions elsewhere
- The UK, Sweden and Denmark lead the field in terms ofpower market
competitive intensity
- After the UK, the Dutch market is the most competitive gasmarket both
now and in 2008
- The UK will continue to lead switching rates in gas andpower
- CHAPTER 2 INTRODUCTION TO MCI
- The MCI Index assesses the competitive environments in 20key European
gas and power markets and forecasts switching behaviour
- The MCI Index shows how attractive a particular market isto new entrants
in terms of the competitive environment
- The MCI Index is calculated by deriving a weighted averageof scores over
9 key metrics
- Phase 1 market scores have been tested, validated andrevised through an
extensive series of expert interviews with Phase 2validation to follow suit
later in 2006
- In addition to scoring market competitiveness, this reportalso forecasts
switching rates in the residential and non-residentialmarkets
- Two methods of calculation are used in order to ensureaccuracy of
results and to remove erroneous or misleading scores
- Users can adjust scores and weightings using theaccompanying Excel model
- Calibration of the underlying metrics
- Effectiveness of regulator
- Ease of Third Party Access
- Effectiveness of balancing & data transfer
- Wholesale market fragmentation
- Retail market fragmentation
- Traded market maturity
- Access to market information & assistance
- Consumer representation
- Propensity to switch
- This report is aimed at those needing a greater insightinto the current
and future competitive environments in Europe's energymarkets
- CHAPTER 3 EUROPEAN MARKET OVERVIEW
- All phase 1 markets in the MCI Index are subject to theterms of the EU
gas and power directives with the Phase 2 marketsfollowing suit
- Compliance with the terms of the directives and theirimplementation has
varied widely across Europe
- Total and sectoral demand vary widely in the MCI Indexmarkets
- Demand growth rates also vary significantly betweenmarkets
- CHAPTER 4 MARKET TRENDS
- Belgium - Gas
- With a relatively strong regulator and favourable pipelineregimes,
Belgium scores highly on the Market Framework metrics
- Effectiveness of regulator - Current Score: 6.5 / July2008 Score: 7
- Ease of Third Party Access - Current Score: 7 / July 2008Score: 7
- Effectiveness of balancing & data transfer - CurrentScore: 8 /
July 2008 Score: 8.5
- The existence of a reasonably well established and liquidwholesale
market is the main element of the Supplier Push metric
- Wholesale market fragmentation - Current Score: 1 / July2008 Score: 2
- Retail market fragmentation - Current Score: 3 / July 2008Score: 4
- Traded market maturity - Current Score: 10 / July 2008Score: 10
- Belgium's Customer Pull metrics all show little increasebetween now
and 2008
- Access to market information & assistance - CurrentScore: 2 /
July 2008 Score: 2.5
- Consumer representation - Current Score: 2 / July 2008Score: 2.5
- Propensity to switch - Current Score: 1.5 / July 2008Score: 3
- The switching progress forecast in the non-residentialmarket will not
be matched by progress in the residential market
- Switching Forecasts July 2008 - Residential: 14%Non-residential: 45%
- Belgium - Power
- All of the Belgian Market Framework factors score at theupper end of
the metrics scale
- Effectiveness of regulator - Current Score: 6.5 / July2008 Score: 7
- Ease of Third Party Access - Current Score: 9 / July 2008Score: 9
- Effectiveness of balancing & data transfer - CurrentScore: 6 /
July 2008 Score: 8
- The creation of a Belgian power exchange drives theSupplier Push
factors higher in 2008
- Wholesale market fragmentation - Current Score 1 / July2008 Score: 2
- Retail market fragmentation - Current Score: 3 / July 2008Score: 4
- Traded market maturity - Current Score: 0 / July 2008Score: 2.5
- All of the Customer Pull metrics will remain at the lowerend of the
scale in 2008
- Access to market information & assistance - CurrentScore: 2 /
July 2008 Score: 2.5
- Consumer representation - Current Score: 2 / July 2008Score: 2.5
- Propensity to switch - Current Score: 1.5 / July 2008Score: 3
- Belgium's forecast power switching rates put it in the midrange of the
markets surveyed
- Switching Forecasts July 2008 - Residential: 21%Non-residential: 31%
- Belgium's overall power score is largely driven by MarketFramework
factors
- Bulgaria - Gas
- Despite reasonable regulatory scores, Bulgaria's MarketFramework
metrics are constrained by the TPA and balancing regimes
- Effectiveness of regulator - Current Score: 5 / July 2008Score: 6
- Ease of Third Party Access - Current Score: 1.5 / July2008 Score: 2
- Effectiveness of balancing & data transfer - CurrentScore: 1 /
July 2008 Score: 1.5
- All of the Market Framework factors remain firmly at thebottom end of
the scoring scale during the forecast period
- Wholesale market fragmentation - Current Score: 0 / July2008 Score: 0
- Retail market fragmentation - Current Score: 2 / July 2008Score: 3
- Traded market maturity - Current Score: 0 / July 2008Score: 1
- Customer Pull metrics remain modest both at the currenttime and at the
end of the forecast period
- Access to market information & assistance - CurrentScore: 0 /
July 2008 Score: 1
- Consumer representation - Current Score: 2 / July 2008Score: 2.5
- Propensity to switch - Current Score: 1 / July 2008 Score:2
- Switching levels in the Bulgarian energy market willremain modest in
both sectors
- Switching Forecasts July 2008 - Residential: 8%Non-residential: 18%
- Bulgaria's gas scores remain low across all of the threemain metric
groupings
- Bulgaria - Power
- Aside from a relatively strong regulatory score,Bulgaria's Market
Framework metrics remain modest at the end of theforecast period
- Effectiveness of regulator - Current Score: 5 / July 2008Score: 6
- Ease of Third Party Access - Current Score: 3 / July 2008Score: 3
- Effectiveness of balancing & data transfer - CurrentScore: 2.5 /
July 2008 Score: 3
- All of Bulgaria's Market Framework metrics show littleimprovement both
at the current time and in the near term future
- Wholesale market fragmentation - Current Score: 4 / July2008 Score: 5
- Retail market fragmentation - Current Score: 4 / July 2008Score: 4
- Traded market maturity - Current Score: 0 / July 2008Score: 0
- The relatively undeveloped nature of the market serves toconstrain the
Customer Pull metrics
- Access to market information & assistance - CurrentScore: 2 /
July 2008 Score: 3
- Consumer representation - Current Score: 1 / July 2008Score: 2
- Propensity to switch - Current Score: 1 / July 2008 Score:3.5
- Bulgaria's electricity switching rates will exceed thoseseen in the
gas market
- Switching Forecasts July 2008 - Residential: 14%Non-residential: 26%
- The competitive intensity of Bulgaria's power market showsonly modest
improvement
- Croatia - Gas
- Full market opening later in 2006 will help give momentumto the 2008
Market Framework metrics
- Effectiveness of regulator - Current Score: 6 / July 2008Score: 7.5
- Ease of Third Party Access - Current Score: 4 / July 2008Score: 6
- Effectiveness of balancing & data transfer - CurrentScore: 4 /
July 2008 Score: 6
- The lack of a traded market combined with wholesale andretail
fragmentation significantly constrain the Supplier Push metrics
- Wholesale market fragmentation - Current Score: 2 / July2008 Score:
2.5
- Retail market fragmentation - Current Score: 2 / July 2008Score: 4
- Traded market maturity - Current Score: 0 / July 2008Score: 0
- Customer Pull metrics will be given renewed impetus laterin 2006 when
the market becomes fully open
- Consumer representation - Current Score: 1 / July 2008Score: 3
- Propensity to switch - Current Score: 2 / July 2008 Score:5
- Croatia's switching rates will be modest, but above thoseseen in more
developed markets elsewhere
- Switching Forecasts July 2008 - Residential: 11%Non-residential: 18%
- Croatia Republic - Power
- None of the Market Framework metrics shows significantimprovement over
the forecasting period
- Effectiveness of regulator - Current Score: 5 / July 2008Score: 6.5
- Ease of Third Party Access - Current Score: 2 / July 2008Score: 2.5
- Effectiveness of balancing & data transfer - CurrentScore: 2.5 /
July 2008 Score: 3
- The limited impact of possible new entrants to thenon-residential
market is the only factor increasing Supplier Push metricsby 2008
- Wholesale market fragmentation - Current Score: 0 / July2008 Score: 0
- Retail market fragmentation - Current Score: 0 / July 2008Score: 1
- Traded market maturity - Current Score: 0 / July 2008Score: 0
- Croatia's Customer Pull metrics will develop even moreslowly than the
gas metrics given the slower pace of market opening
- Access to market information & assistance - CurrentScore: 1 /
July 2008 Score: 2
- Consumer representation - Current Score: 0 / July 2008Score: 2
- Propensity to switch - Current Score: 1 / July 2008 Score:3
- Despite being modest, Croatia's switching forecasts exceedthose seen
in markets at more advanced stages of economic development
- Switching Forecasts July 2008 - Residential: 13%Non-residential: 18%
- Croatia's power metrics will remain in the lower part ofthe scoring
scale throughout the forecast period
- Czech Republic - Gas
- The development of liberalisation will drive all of theMarket
Framework scores higher by July 2008
- Effectiveness of regulator - Current Score: 3 / July 2008Score: 4.5
- Ease of Third Party Access - Current Score: 4 / July 2008Score: 6
- Effectiveness of balancing & data transfer - CurrentScore: 3.5 /
July 2008 Score: 4.5
- Retail fragmentation is the highest current and futurescore of the
Supplier Push factors
- Wholesale market fragmentation - Current Score: 0.8 / July2008
Score: 3.5
- Retail market fragmentation - Current Score: 4 / July 2008Score: 4.5
- Traded market maturity - Current Score: 0 / July 2008Score: 1
- Customer Pull factors all score at the lower end of thescale
- Access to market information & assistance - CurrentScore: 0.5 /
July 2008 Score: 2.8
- Consumer representation - Current Score: 1 / July 2008Score: 3
- Propensity to switch - Current Score: 3 / July 2008 Score:3
- By July 2008 switching activity in the residential marketwill lag
significantly behind the non-residential market
- Switching Forecasts July 2008 - Residential: 10%Non-residential: 21%
- All but one of the Czech Republic's gas metrics score inthe lower half
of the scale
- Czech Republic - Power
- Market Framework factors are unlikely to developsignificantly by 2008
- Effectiveness of regulator - Current Score: 5 / July 2008Score: 6
- Ease of Third Party Access - Current Score: 6.9 / July2008 Score: 7.5
- Effectiveness of balancing & data transfer - CurrentScore: 7 /
July 2008 Score: 8
- Supplier Push factors are curtailed by the lack of atraded market and
the dominance of CEZ
- Wholesale market fragmentation - Current Score: 5.8 / July2008
Score: 5.8
- Retail market fragmentation - Current Score: 6.6 / July2008 Score:
6.8
- Traded market maturity - Current Score: 1 / July 2008Score: 2
- Customer Pull factors achieve only limited scores both nowand in July
2008
- Access to market information & assistance - CurrentScore: 2.4 /
July 2008 Score: 4
- Consumer representation - Current Score: 2.5 / July 2008Score: 5
- Propensity to switch - Current Score: 1.3 / July 2008Score: 3.7
- Switching rates will be limited in the residential sectorby July 2008,
though greater momentum will be seen in the non-residentialsector
- Switching Forecasts July 2008 - Residential: 7%Non-residential: 15%
- Market Framework metrics exert the main influence over thefinal Czech
additive power score
- Denmark - Gas
- All of Denmark's Market Framework metrics score at theupper end of the
scale
- Effectiveness of regulator - Current Score: 8 / July 2008Score: 8
- Ease of Third Party Access - Current Score: 10 / July 2008Score: 10
- Effectiveness of balancing & data transfer - CurrentScore: 9 /
July 2008 Score: 9
- Denmark's Supplier Push metrics are constrained by thelack of
fragmentation in both the wholesale and retail arenas
- Wholesale market fragmentation - Current Score: 2 / July2008 Score: 2
- Retail market fragmentation - Current Score: 3 / July 2008Score: 4.5
- Traded market maturity - Current Score: 3 / July 2008Score: 4
- All of Denmark's Customer Pull metrics remain modest,despite the
market opening timetable exceeding EU requirements
- Access to market information & assistance - CurrentScore: 4 /
July 2008 Score: 5
- Consumer representation - Current Score: 4.5 / July 2008Score: 5
- Propensity to switch - Current Score: 2 / July 2008 Score:4
- Switching rates in the residential sector will continue tolag
unusually far behind the non-residential sector
- Switching Forecasts July 2008 - Residential: 12%Non-residential: 45%
- The overall Danish gas score is constrained by weakCustomer Pull
metrics
- Denmark - Power
- The maturity of the Danish power market help createrelatively strong
Market Framework scores
- Effectiveness of regulator - Current Score: 5 / July 2008Score: 6
- Ease of Third Party Access - Current Score: 10 / July 2008Score: 10
- Effectiveness of balancing & data transfer - CurrentScore: 6 /
July 2008 Score: 6
- All of Denmark's Supplier Push metrics score at the upperend of the
scale
- Wholesale market fragmentation - Current Score: 8 / July2008 Score:
8.5
- Retail market fragmentation - Current Score: 8 / July 2008Score: 8
- Traded market maturity - Current Score: 10 / July 2008Score: 10
- Despite the developed nature of the market, Customer Pullmetrics
largely remain at the mid point of the range
- Access to market information & assistance - CurrentScore: 7 /
July 2008 Score: 7
- Consumer representation - Current Score: 4.5 / July 2008Score: 5
- Propensity to switch - Current Score: 5 / July 2008 Score:5
- The gap between switching rates in the non-residential andresidential
sectors will continue to be wide in 2008
- Switching Forecasts July 2008 - Residential: 26%Non-residential: 72%
- Denmark's power market competitive intensity ranks secondonly to that
seen in the UK
- France - Gas
- Regulatory effectiveness is the key driver of the MarketFramework
scores
- Effectiveness of regulator - Current Score: 6.5 / July2008 Score: 7.5
- Ease of Third Party Access - Current Score: 5 / July 2008Score: 6.5
- Effectiveness of balancing & data transfer - CurrentScore: 5.5 /
July 2008 Score: 7
- Supplier Push factors in France are influenced by thereduction in
wholesale fragmentation expected by 2008
- Wholesale market fragmentation - Current Score: 2.3 / July2008 Score
5.5
- Retail market fragmentation - Current Score: 3 / July 2008Score: 4.5
- Traded market maturity - Current Score: 3 / July 2008Score: 6
- Customer Pull metrics all score low marks both now and in2008
- Access to market information & assistance - CurrentScore: 2 /
July 2008 Score: 3
- Consumer representation - Current Score: 3.5 / July 2008Score: 3.8
- Propensity to switch - Current Score: 3 / July 2008 Score:5.2
- Switching rates in both the non-residential andresidential sectors are
likely to be lower than in other markets
- Switching Forecasts July 2008 - Residential: 11%Non-residential: 44%
- Market Framework metrics are a key driver of France'scurrent gas score
with Supplier Push factors boosting the 2008 score
- France - Power
- Increased pro-action and momentum from the Regulator arelikely to
drive the Market Framework metrics higher by July 2008
- Effectiveness of regulator - Current Score: 6 / July 2008Score: 7
- Ease of Third Party Access - Current Score: 4 / July 2008Score: 5
- Effectiveness of balancing & data transfer - CurrentScore: 4 /
July 2008 Score: 4.8
- Growth in the Supplier Push metrics will be mainly drivenby reduced
retail fragmentation between now and 2008
- Wholesale market fragmentation - Current Score: 2 / July2008 Score: 3
- Retail market fragmentation - Current Score: 4 / July 2008Score: 6
- Traded market maturity - Current Score: 5.5 / July 2008Score: 7.2
- None of the Customer Pull metrics score particularlyhighly both at the
current time and in July 2008
- Access to market information & assistance - CurrentScore: 4 /
July 2008 Score: 6
- Consumer representation - Current Score: 2 / July 2008Score: 4
- Propensity to switch - Current Score: 2.5 / July 2008Score: 4
- Residential switching will only be at modest levels by2008, though
non-residential switching will continue to develop
- Switching Forecasts July 2008 - Residential: 17%Non-residential: 26%
- Relatively low consumer representation and the ongoingdominance of EDF
serve to constrain France's overall power scores
- Germany - Gas
- Germany's Market Framework score is curtailed by the lackof a
regulator and the relatively undeveloped TPA regime
- Effectiveness of regulator - Current Score: 4 / July 2008Score: 5
- Ease of Third Party Access - Current Score: 1 / July 2008Score: 6
- Effectiveness of balancing & data transfer - CurrentScore: 1.5 /
July 2008 Score: 4
- The large number of municipal energy retailers drives theSupplier Push
metrics
- Wholesale market fragmentation - Current Score: 1.5 / July2008
Score: 3
- Retail market fragmentation - Current Score: 10 / July2008 Score: 10
- Traded market maturity - Current Score: 3 / July 2008Score: 6
- Germany has consistently low scores for all of theCustomer Pull
metrics, with little improvement likely by 2008
- Access to market information & assistance - CurrentScore: 2 /
July 2008 Score: 3.8
- Consumer representation - Current Score: 1 / July 2008Score: 2.5
- Propensity to switch - Current Score: 2 / July 2008 Score:3
- Forecast switching rates for 2008 are at the lower end ofthe European
scale
- Switching Forecasts July 2008 - Residential: 13%Non-residential: 19%
- A highly fragmented retail market is not enough to offsetthe low
scores gained in most of the other metrics
- Germany - Power
- The already low Market Framework scores are furtherconstrained by the
current lack of a regulatory body
- Effectiveness of regulator - Current Score: 4 / July 2008Score: 5
- Ease of Third Party Access - Current Score: 4 / July 2008Score: 5.5
- Effectiveness of balancing & data transfer - CurrentScore: 3.5 /
July 2008 Score: 5
- Supplier Push factors all score relatively highly giventhe well
developed nature of the German power market
- Wholesale market fragmentation - Current Score: 6 / July2008 Score:
7.5
- Retail market fragmentation - Current Score: 4 / July 2008Score: 5
- Traded market maturity - Current Score: 8 / July 2008Score: 9
- Customer Pull metrics are likely to remain low for theforeseeable
future
- Access to market information & assistance - CurrentScore: 3 /
July 2008 Score: 4
- Consumer representation - Current Score: 2 / July 2008Score: 3
- Propensity to switch - Current Score: 3 / July 2008 Score:4
- Switching growth rates in both sectors will be curtailedby the fact
that market opening theoretically occurred back in 1998
- Switching Forecasts July 2008 - Residential: 20%Non-residential: 53%
- A mature traded market and a relatively fragmentedwholesale market are
insufficient to offset the lower scoring metrics
- Greece - Gas
- The end of Greece's gas market derogation in November 2006will help
increase the 2008 Market Framework scores
- Effectiveness of regulator - Current Score: 3 / July 2008Score: 6
- Ease of Third Party Access - Current Score: 0 / July 2008Score: 5
- Effectiveness of balancing & data transfer - CurrentScore: 1 /
July 2008 Score: 3
- All of the Supplier Push metrics will remain extremely lowat the end
of the forecast period
- Wholesale market fragmentation - Current Score: 0 / July2008 Score: 2
- Retail market fragmentation - Current Score: 1 / July 2008Score: 1
- Traded market maturity - Current Score: 0 / July 2008Score: 0
- Customer Pull metrics are all redundant given currentmarket structure
and will only increase marginally by 2008
- Access to market information & assistance - CurrentScore: 0 /
July 2008 Score: 2
- Consumer representation - Current Score: 0 / July 2008Score: 1.5
- Propensity to switch - Current Score: 0 / July 2008 Score:2
- The undeveloped nature of the Greek gas market and thedearth of new
entrants will serve to keep switching levels very low
- Switching Forecasts July 2008 - Residential: 4%Non-residential: 11%
- None of the metrics apart from the Market Framework scoresignificantly
above the lower end of the scale
- Greece- Power
- Development of the Market Framework factors will belimited between now
and 2008
- Effectiveness of regulator - Current Score: 2 / July 2008Score: 3
- Ease of Third Party Access - Current Score: 2.5 / July2008 Score: 3.5
- Effectiveness of balancing & data transfer - CurrentScore: 1 /
July 2008 Score: 3
- The former monopoly position of PPC serves tosignificantly constrain
the Supplier Push metrics both now and in 2008
- Wholesale market fragmentation - Current Score: 0 / July2008 Score: 1
- Retail market fragmentation - Current Score: 1 / July 2008Score: 1
- Traded market maturity - Current Score: 0 / July 2008Score: 0
- Greece's Customer Pull metrics will continue to be heldback by the
lack of new market entrants and the dominance of PPC
- Access to market information & assistance - CurrentScore: 1 /
July 2008 Score: 2
- Consumer representation - Current Score: 2 / July 2008Score: 2
- Propensity to switch - Current Score: 1 / July 2008 Score:1
- Greece's forecast switching rates are the lowest of themarkets surveyed
- Switching Forecasts July 2008 - Residential: 4%Non-residential: 6%
- The undeveloped nature of the Greek market and thedominance of PPC
serve to significantly curtail all of the metrics
- Hungary - Gas
- All of Hungary's Market Framework factors achieve scoresat the upper
end of the scale
- Effectiveness of regulator - Current Score: 6.5 / July2008 Score: 8
- Ease of Third Party Access - Current Score: 7.5 / July2008 Score: 8
- Effectiveness of balancing & data transfer - CurrentScore: 7 /
July 2008 Score: 7.5
- Supplier Push metrics remain constrained during theforecast period as
a legacy of pre-liberalisation market dynamics
- Wholesale market fragmentation - Current Score: 1 / July2008 Score: 2
- Retail market fragmentation - Current Score: 5 / July 2008Score: 5
- Traded market maturity - Current Score: 0 / July 2008Score: 1
- None of the Customer Pull metrics move past their currentlow levels by
the end of the forecast period
- Access to market information & assistance - CurrentScore: 1 /
July 2008 Score: 2
- Consumer representation - Current Score: 2 / July 2008Score: 2
- Propensity to switch - Current Score: 2.5 / July 2008Score: 3
- Hungary's gas switching rates will remain modest in boththe
residential and non-residential sectors
- Switching Forecasts July 2008 - Residential: 5%Non-residential: 14%
- Hungary's gas scores are driven by the market Frameworkmetrics
- Hungary - Power
- Development of the Market Framework metrics remains modestboth at the
current time and in the near term future
- Effectiveness of regulator - Current Score: 4.5 / July2008 Score: 5
- Ease of Third Party Access - Current Score: 6 / July 2008Score: 6.5
- Effectiveness of balancing & data transfer - CurrentScore: 2 /
July 2008 Score: 3
- Hungary's Supplier Push metrics are constrained by thedominance of MVM
in the wholesale arena and the lack of a traded market
- Wholesale market fragmentation - Current Score: 3 / July2008 Score:
3.5
- Retail market fragmentation - Current Score: 6 / July 2008Score: 7
- Traded market maturity - Current Score: 0 / July 2008Score: 3
- Customer Pull metrics are driven by the levels ofswitching seen in the
non-residential market and future residentialswitching
- Access to market information & assistance - CurrentScore: 2 /
July 2008 Score: 2.5
- Consumer representation - Current Score: 2.5 / July 2008Score: 2.5
- Propensity to switch - Current Score: 4 / July 2008 Score:6
- Hungary's additive score will drive a reasonably stronglevel of
switching in the electricity market
- Switching Forecasts July 2008 - Residential: 24%Non-residential: 46%
- A wide disparity exists in the individual metrics in theHungarian
power sector
- Ireland - Gas
- All of the Irish Market Framework factors will be at theupper end of
the scale by 2008
- Effectiveness of regulator - Current Score: 7 / July 2008Score: 8.3
- Ease of Third Party Access - Current Score: 7 / July 2008Score: 8
- Effectiveness of balancing & data transfer - CurrentScore: 6.3 /
July 2008 Score: 7.3
- The consolidation of new market entrants will increase thescores of
the Supplier Push metrics
- Wholesale market fragmentation - Current Score: 3.5 / July2008
Score: 5.5
- Retail market fragmentation - Current Score: 2 / July 2008Score: 5
- Traded market maturity - Current Score: 0 / July 2008Score: 2
- Continued switching following full market opening in 2005will drive
the Customer Pull metrics higher in 2008
- Access to market information & assistance - CurrentScore: 2.6 /
July 2008 Score: 5
- Consumer representation - Current Score: 1.8 / July 2008Score: 2.8
- Propensity to switch - Current Score: 5.5 / July 2008Score: 7
- The development of competition between now and 2008 willcontinue to
result in increased rates of switching
- Switching Forecasts July 2008 - Residential: 14%Non-residential: 59%
- Market Framework scores are the main factor driving theoverall score
- Ireland - Power
- Market Framework metrics generally score highly and arelikely to
further improve by July 2008
- Effectiveness of regulator - Current Score: 6.6 / July2008 Score: 8
- Ease of Third Party Access - Current Score: 5 / July 2008Score: 7.4
- Effectiveness of balancing & data transfer - CurrentScore: 6 /
July 2008 Score: 6.5
- The Supplier Push metrics will continue to be constrainedby only
modest gains from new entrants and the lack of wholesale power
- Wholesale market fragmentation - Current Score: 2.4 / July2008
Score: 3.3
- Retail market fragmentation - Current Score: 5 / July 2008Score: 6
- Traded market maturity - Current Score: 0 / July 2008Score: 1
- Customer Pull metrics will remain relatively low by 2008,despite the
progress resulting from full market opening in 2005
- Access to market information & assistance - CurrentScore: 2 /
July 2008 Score: 3.4
- Consumer representation - Current Score: 1.5 / July 2008Score: 2.9
- Propensity to switch - Current Score: 5.3 / July 2008Score: 7.5
- Switching activity in the residential sector will continueto be much
lower than the non-residential market
- Switching Forecasts July 2008 - Residential: 30%Non-residential: 57%
- Irish power market metrics are constrained by the lack ofa traded
market
- Italy - Gas
- The assertion shown by the Italian regulator has a majorimpact on the
Market Framework metrics
- Effectiveness of regulator - Current Score: 7 / July 2008Score: 8
- Ease of Third Party Access - Current Score: 5 / July 2008Score: 6.3
- Effectiveness of balancing & data transfer - CurrentScore: 5 /
July 2008 Score: 6
- Reductions in both wholesale and retail marketfragmentation are the
key driver of the Supplier Push metrics
- Wholesale market fragmentation - Current Score: 3 / July2008 Score: 5
- Retail market fragmentation - Current Score: 5 / July 2008Score: 6.5
- Traded market maturity - Current Score: 3 / July 2008Score 5
- Customer Pull metrics are mainly driven by propensity toswitch
- Access to market information & assistance - CurrentScore: 2 /
July 2008 Score: 3
- Consumer representation - Current Score: 1 / July 2008Score: 2.5
- Propensity to switch - Current Score: 4 / July 2008 Score:6.6
- The gap between residential and non-residential switchingrates will
grow by the end of the forecast period
- Switching Forecasts July 2008 - Residential: 11%Non-residential: 47%
- The Italian gas market achieves higher scores on the moreheavily
weighted metrics
- Italy - Power
- Italy's Market Framework score is driven by theRegulator's proactive
reforms and strong stance on promotingliberalisation
- Effectiveness of regulator - Current Score: 6 / July 2008Score: 7
- Ease of Third Party Access - Current Score: 4.3 / July2008 Score: 6
- Effectiveness of balancing & data transfer - CurrentScore: 3.5 /
July 2008 Score: 4.5
- Growth in the wholesale power market will increase theSupplier Push
metric by July 2008
- Wholesale market fragmentation - Current Score: 4.2 / July2008
Score: 6
- Retail market fragmentation - Current Score: 8 / July 2008Score: 8
- Traded market maturity - Current Score: 4.5 / July 2008Score: 7
- Customer Pull factors are likely to remain relatively lowin July 2008
- Access to market information & assistance - CurrentScore: 2.3 /
July 2008 Score: 3.5
- Consumer representation - Current Score: 1.5 / July 2008Score: 3
- Propensity to switch - Current Score: 2.5 / July 2008Score: 4.5
- An MCI score at the higher end of the scale will helpdrive further
growth in switching rates
- Switching Forecasts July 2008 - Residential: 29%Non-residential: 63%
- Low scoring Customer Pull metrics constrain Italy'soverall scores
- Latvia - Gas
- All of the Market Framework factors will remain modestthroughout the
forecast period
- Effectiveness of regulator - Current Score: 2.5 / July2008 Score: 3
- Ease of Third Party Access - Current Score: 0 / July 2008Score: 1
- Effectiveness of balancing & data transfer - CurrentScore: 1 /
July 2008 Score: 3
- None of the Supplier Push factors will develop in anymeaningful way by
the end of the forecast period
- Wholesale market fragmentation - Current Score: 0 / July2008 Score: 1
- Retail market fragmentation - Current Score: 0 / July 2008Score: 1
- Traded market maturity - Current Score: 0 / July 2008Score: 0
- The Customer Pull metrics are all constrained by the factthat new
market entrants are unlikely to arrive in force by 2008
- Access to market information & assistance - CurrentScore: 1 /
July 2008 Score: 2
- Consumer representation - Current Score: 0 / July 2008Score: 1
- Propensity to switch - Current Score: 1 / July 2008 Score:2
- Latvia gas switching rates will be modest in both theresidential and
non-residential sectors
- Switching Forecasts July 2008 - Residential: 9%Non-residential: 20%
- The dominance of Latvijas Gaze and the previousmonopolistic market
structure still exert an impact on the metrics
- Latvia - Power
- None of the Market Framework factors show particularimprovement over
the forecast period
- Effectiveness of regulator - Current Score: 3 / July 2008Score: 4
- Ease of Third Party Access - Current Score: 2.5 / July2008 Score: 3.5
- Effectiveness of balancing & data transfer - CurrentScore: 2 /
July 2008 Score: 3
- The dominate position of Latvenergo throughout the valuechain will
continue to constrain the Supplier Push metrics
- Wholesale market fragmentation - Current Score: 1 / July2008 Score:
1.5
- Retail market fragmentation - Current Score: 0 / July 2008Score: 1.5
- Traded market maturity - Current Score: 0 / July 2008Score: 0
- Customer Pull metrics will remain at the lower end of thescale in
2008, despite the development of full market opening in 2007
- Access to market information & assistance - CurrentScore: 1 /
July 2008 Score: 2
- Consumer representation - Current Score: 0 / July 2008Score: 1
- Propensity to switch - Current Score: 0.5 / July 2008Score: 1.5
- Latvia's power switching rates in 2008 will be very muchat the lower
end of the scale of the markets surveyed
- Switching Forecasts July 2008 - Residential: 13%Non-residential: 18%
- The progress currently being made towards reforming themarket will be
insufficient to dramatically improve the metrics by 2008
- Netherlands - Gas
- The relatively high Market Framework scores reflect thestatus of the
Netherlands as an established and mature gas market
- Effectiveness of regulator - Current Score: 7 / July 2008Score: 7.7
- Ease of Third Party Access - Current Score: 6.5 / July2008 Score: 7.2
- Effectiveness of balancing & data transfer - CurrentScore: 6 /
July 2008 Score: 6.9
- Supplier Push factors are driven by the existence of, andgrowing
liquidity in, the TTF wholesale market
- Wholesale market fragmentation - Current Score: 3.5 / July2008
Score: 5.5
- Retail market fragmentation - Current Score: 6 / July 2008Score: 6.7
- Traded market maturity - Current Score: 7 / July 2008Score: 8.3
- Customer Pull scores have been constrained, and willcontinue to be
constrained, by a lack of strong consumer representation
- Access to market information & assistance - CurrentScore: 3.3 /
July 2008 Score: 6
- Consumer representation - Current Score: 2.5 / July 2008Score: 3.4
- Propensity to switch - Current Score: 3.5 / July 2008Score: 5
- Switching activity will be higher than in many othermarkets by 2008
owing to full market opening occurring ahead of EUdeadlines
- Switching Forecasts July 2008 - Residential: 23%Non-residential: 35%
- Dutch gas scores reflect the Netherlands' role as asignificant gas
producer and a mature market
- Netherlands- Power
- The Market Framework metrics are driven by the competencyof the
regulator and its focus on social as well as market issues
- Effectiveness of regulator - Current Score: 7 / July 2008Score: 7.5
- Ease of Third Party Access - Current Score: 4.8 / July2008 Score: 6.6
- Effectiveness of balancing & data transfer - CurrentScore: 3.5 /
July 2008 Score: 5
- Supplier Push factors will grow by July 2008, though onlyto a minimal
degree
- Wholesale market fragmentation - Current Score: 5.5 / July2008
Score: 5.9
- Retail market fragmentation - Current Score: 5 / July 2008Score: 6.2
- Traded market maturity - Current Score: 6 / July 2008Score: 8.8
- Customer Pull factors are mainly driven by a mediumpropensity to switch
- Access to market information & assistance - CurrentScore: 4.9 /
July 2008 Score: 6.6
- Consumer representation - Current Score: 2 / July 2008Score: 2
- Propensity to switch - Current Score: 3 / July 2008 Score:4
- Switching rates will continue to be and are likely toremain higher
than in many other markets
- Switching Forecasts July 2008 - Residential: 24%Non-residential: 54%
- Strong market framework factors and a mature traded marketare the key
drivers of the Dutch power market scores
- Poland - Gas
- None of the Market Framework metrics increase their
scoressignificantly between now and 2008
- Effectiveness of regulator - Current Score: 4 / July 2008Score: 5
- Ease of Third Party Access - Current Score: 4 / July 2008Score: 5
- Effectiveness of balancing & data transfer - CurrentScore: 5.5 /
July 2008 Score: 6
- A lack of access to wholesale gas supplies constrainsPoland's Market
Framework scores
- Wholesale market fragmentation - Current Score: 0.5 / July2008
Score: 1.5
- Retail market fragmentation - Current Score: 4.5 / July2008 Score:
5.5
- Traded market maturity - Current Score: 0 / July 2008Score: 1.8
- Customer Pull metrics will remain at the lower end of thescale by 2008
- Access to market information & assistance - CurrentScore: 2 /
July 2008 Score: 3
- Consumer representation - Current Score: 1 / July 2008Score: 2
- Propensity to switch - Current Score: 1 / July 2008 Score:2
- The role played by the top three players in the marketwill begin to
diminish by the end of the forecast period and as such willdrive switching
rates
- Switching Forecasts July 2008 - Residential: 24%Non-residential: 34%
- Only a modest improvement in Poland's scores is likely tobe
discernable between now and 2008
- Poland - Power
- Market Framework scores will remain modest in 2008
- Effectiveness of regulator - Current Score: 5 / July 2008Score: 5
- Ease of Third Party Access - Current Score: 5 / July 2008Score: 6.4
- Effectiveness of balancing & data transfer - CurrentScore: 3.5 /
July 2008 Score: 5.3
- Low levels of retail and wholesale fragmentation drive theSupplier
Push metric both currently and in July 2008
- Wholesale market fragmentation - Current Score: 9 / July2008 Score:
9.3
- Retail market fragmentation - Current Score: 8.8 / July2008 Score:
9.1
- Traded market maturity - Current Score: 3 / July 2008Score: 5.8
- Customer Pull metrics are very much at the lower end ofthe scale and
are likely to remain so in July 2008
- Access to market information & assistance - CurrentScore: 3 /
July 2008 Score: 5.5
- Consumer representation - Current Score: 1.3 / July 2008Score: 2.3
- Propensity to switch - Current Score: 2 / July 2008 Score:3.5
- Residential switching is likely to remain at modestlevels, though
non-residential rates are likely to grow more rapidly
- Switching Forecasts July 2008 - Residential: 27%Non-residential: 39%
- A high degree of fragmentation in the retail and wholesalemarkets
partially offsets the modest scores achieved in other metrics
- Romania - Gas
- Romania's Market Framework metrics show little improvementover the
forecast period
- Effectiveness of regulator - Current Score: 4 / July 2008Score: 4
- Ease of Third Party Access - Current Score: 4 / July 2008Score: 5
- Effectiveness of balancing & data transfer - CurrentScore: 4 /
July 2008 Score: 5
- Romania's Supplier Push metrics show only minimalincreases during the
forecast period
- Wholesale market fragmentation - Current Score: 6 / July2008 Score:
6.5
- Retail market fragmentation - Current Score: 3 / July 2008Score: 4
- Traded market maturity - Current Score: 0 / July 2008Score: 1
- None of Romania's Customer Pull metrics rise above thebottom end of
the scale by the end of the forecast period
- Access to market information & assistance - CurrentScore: 2 /
July 2008 Score: 2.5
- Consumer representation - Current Score: 2 / July 2008Score: 2
- Propensity to switch - Current Score: 1 / July 2008 Score:1
- Romania's gas switching rates will continue to be modestin both end
use sectors
- Switching Forecasts July 2008 - Residential: 10%Non-residential: 17%
- Romania's gas score is constrained by both Supplier Pushand Customer
Pull factors
- Romania - Power
- Romania's Market Framework metrics are driven by theexistence of the
wholesale market and an efficient TPA regime
- Effectiveness of regulator - Current Score: 4 / July 2008Score: 4.5
- Ease of Third Party Access - Current Score: 8 / July 2008Score: 8
- Effectiveness of balancing & data transfer - CurrentScore: 10 /
July 2008 Score: 10
- Romania's Supplier Push metrics are driven byfragmentation in the
generation market and the existence of the OPCOMmarket
- Wholesale market fragmentation - Current Score: 7 / July2008 Score:
7.5
- Retail market fragmentation - Current Score: 2 / July 2008Score: 4
- Traded market maturity - Current Score: 6 / July 2008Score: 7.5
- Customer Pull metrics are likely to remain modest, despitefull market
opening in 2007
- Access to market information & assistance - CurrentScore: 2 /
July 2008 Score: 2.5
- Consumer representation - Current Score: 2 / July 2008Score: 2
- Propensity to switch - Current Score: 3 / July 2008 Score:4
- Currently modest switching levels are likely to have showreasonable
development by 2008
- Switching Forecasts July 2008 - Residential: 18%Non-residential: 36%
- Romania's power score is driven by Market Frameworkfactors and the
fragmentation in the wholesale market
- Russia - Gas
- Russia's Market Framework factors all score at the lowerend of the
scale with little improvement likely to be seen by 2008
- Effectiveness of regulator - Current Score: 2 / July 2008Score: 3
- Ease of Third Party Access - Current Score: 0 / July 2008Score: 2.5
- Effectiveness of balancing & data transfer - CurrentScore: 0 /
July 2008 Score: 3
- None of the factors making up the Supplier Push metricswill develop
significantly by 2008
- Wholesale market fragmentation - Current Score: 1 / July2008 Score: 2
- Retail market fragmentation - Current Score: 1 / July 2008Score: 2
- Traded market maturity - Current Score: 0 / July 2008Score: 2
- Current market dynamics mean that the gas Customer Pullmetrics have no
scope to remain anything other than very limited
- Access to market information & assistance - CurrentScore: 0 /
July 2008 Score: 1
- Consumer representation - Current Score: 0 / July 2008Score: 1
- Propensity to switch - Current Score: 1 / July 2008 Score:3
- Extremely low switching rates will be prevailing at theend of the
forecast period in Russia
- Switching Forecasts July 2008 - Residential: 3%Non-residential: 8%
- The vertically integrated control on the market exerted byGazprom
serves to keep Russia's additive score at the lower end of thescale
- Russia - Power
- Other than possible changes in the balancing regime, theMarket
Framework metrics will remain at the lower end of the scale
- Effectiveness of regulator - Current Score: 2 / July 2008Score: 3
- Ease of Third Party Access - Current Score: 0 / July 2008Score: 3
- Effectiveness of balancing & data transfer - CurrentScore: 3 /
July 2008 Score: 5
- Ongoing market reform will drive the Supplier Push factorsconsiderably
higher by the end of the forecast period
- Wholesale market fragmentation - Current Score: 2.5 / July2008
Score: 8
- Retail market fragmentation - Current Score: 2.5 / July2008 Score: 7
- Traded market maturity - Current Score: 3 / July 2008Score: 8
- Current market dynamics mean that the power Customer Pullmetrics have
no scope to remain anything other than very limited
- Access to market information & assistance - CurrentScore: 0 /
July 2008 Score: 2.5
- Consumer representation - Current Score: 0 / July 2008Score: 1
- Propensity to switch - Current Score: 2.5 / July 2008Score: 3
- Market reforms will drive Russian power market switchingrates, though
they will remain modest by EU standards
- Switching Forecasts July 2008 - Residential: 8%Non-residential: 13%
- Ongoing market reforms will result in a strong increase inRussia's
power scores by the end of the forecast period
- Slovenia - Gas
- Slovenia's Market Framework scores are surprisingly highgiven the
limited size of the market
- Effectiveness of regulator - Current Score: 7 / July 2008Score: 7.5
- Ease of Third Party Access - Current Score: 5 / July 2008Score: 5
- Effectiveness of balancing & data transfer - CurrentScore: 7 /
July 2008 Score: 7.5
- Slovenia's Supplier Push metrics do not show anymeaningful degree of
development over the forecast period
- Wholesale market fragmentation - Current Score: 0 / July2008 Score:
0.5
- Retail market fragmentation - Current Score: 3 / July 2008Score: 3.5
- Traded market maturity - Current Score: 0 / July 2008Score: 0.5
- All of the Customer Pull metrics remain at the bottom endof the scale
during the forecast period
- Access to market information & assistance - CurrentScore: 1 /
July 2008 Score: 1.5
- Consumer representation - Current Score: 2 / July 2008Score: 2.5
- Propensity to switch - Current Score: 0 / July 2008 Score:1
- Switching rates in both sectors will remain modest as aresult of
currently prevailing market dynamics and the ownership ofGeoplin
- Switching Forecasts July 2008 - Residential: 8%Non-residential: 11%
- Slovenia's overall gas scores are constrained by thedominance of
Geoplin, the lack of a traded market and low switching rates
- Slovenia - Power
- Slovenia's Market Framework metrics remain fixed aroundthe middle of
the scoring scale
- Effectiveness of regulator - Current Score: 5 / July 2008Score: 5.5
- Ease of Third Party Access - Current Score: 6.5 / July2008 Score: 7
- Effectiveness of balancing & data transfer - CurrentScore: 6 /
July 2008 Score: 6
- Slovenia's Supplier Push metrics will remain modest in thenear term
future
- Wholesale market fragmentation - Current Score: 3 / July2008 Score:
3.5
- Retail market fragmentation - Current Score: 6 / July 2008Score: 6.5
- Traded market maturity - Current Score: 3 / July 2008Score: 4
- Little development in the Customer Pull metrics isdiscernable by 2008
- Access to market information & assistance - CurrentScore: 2 /
July 2008 Score: 2.5
- Consumer representation - Current Score: 2 / July 2008Score: 2
- Propensity to switch - Current Score: 1.5 / July 2008Score: 2.5
- Electricity switching rates in Slovenia show littleimprovement in
either sector in the coming years
- Switching Forecasts July 2008 - Residential: 8%Non-residential: 17%
- Weak Customer Pull metrics curtail the overall power score
- Spain - Gas
- Spanish Market Framework scores will increase onlyslightly by 2008
- Effectiveness of regulator - Current Score: 4.9 / July2008 Score: 5.8
- Ease of Third Party Access - Current Score: 6.2 / July2008 Score: 7.1
- Effectiveness of balancing & data transfer - CurrentScore: 5.5 /
July 2008 Score: 6.2
- Reductions in wholesale and retail fragmentation willdrive the
Supplier Push metrics higher by July 2008
- Wholesale market fragmentation - Current Score: 4.3 / July2008
Score: 6.5
- Retail market fragmentation - Current Score: 4.5 / July2008 Score: 5
- Traded market maturity - Current Score: 2.5 / July 2008Score: 3.9
- The Customer Pull metric is most heavily influenced byswitching rates
both currently and in the future
- Access to market information & assistance - CurrentScore: 2.5 /
July 2008 Score: 4.7
- Consumer representation - Current Score: 1.5 / July 2008Score: 2.5
- Propensity to switch - Current Score: 6.5 / July 2008Score: 7.2
- Following an upsurge in residential switching, bothsectors will
continue to see increased switching activity in July 2008
- Switching Forecasts July 2008 - Residential: 30%Non-residential: 73%
- Spain's gas scores are constrained by the lack of a tradedmarket and
relatively low levels of consumer representation
- Spain - Power
- Market Framework metrics will remain in the middle rangeboth currently
and by July 2008
- Effectiveness of regulator - Current Score: 4.8 / July2008 Score: 5.8
- Ease of Third Party Access - Current Score: 6.3 / July2008 Score: 6.5
- Effectiveness of balancing & data transfer - CurrentScore: 6 /
July 2008 Score: 6.5
- Supplier Push metrics are currently modest, though by July2008 will
begin to increase upwards
- Wholesale market fragmentation - Current Score: 3 / July2008 Score:
6.3
- Retail market fragmentation - Current Score: 5 / July 2008Score: 6.4
- Traded market maturity - Current Score: 1 / July 2008Score: 4.9
- Customer Pull metrics will remain relatively low in July2008
- Access to market information & assistance - CurrentScore: 2 /
July 2008 Score: 3.5
- Consumer representation - Current Score: 1.5 / July 2008Score: 3.9
- Propensity to switch - Current Score: 2.2 / July 2008Score: 5
- Switching rates in both the residential andnon-residential sectors
will continue to rise
- Switching Forecasts July 2008 - Residential: 34%Non-residential: 53%
- As in the gas market, Spain's power scores are constrainedby the lack
of a traded market and low levels of consumer representation
- Sweden - Gas
- The undeveloped nature of the Swedish gas marketconstrains the Market
Framework scores
- Effectiveness of regulator - Current Score: 3 / July 2008Score: 3
- Ease of Third Party Access - Current Score: 3 / July 2008Score: 3
- Effectiveness of balancing & data transfer - CurrentScore: 4 /
July 2008 Score: 6
- High levels of wholesale and retail fragmentation combinedwith a lack
of wholesale gas constrain the Market Framework scores
- Wholesale market fragmentation - Current Score: 0.5 / July2008
Score: 1.5
- Retail market fragmentation - Current Score: 2.5 / July2008 Score:
2.5
- Traded market maturity - Current Score: 0 / July 2008Score: 0
- Customer Pull metrics will remain at the lower end of thescale between
now and 2008 given the immature nature of the market
- Access to market information & assistance - CurrentScore: 3 /
July 2008 Score: 3
- Consumer representation - Current Score: 3 / July 2008Score: 4
- Propensity to switch - Current Score: 1.5 / July 2008Score: 2.5
- Switching rates in the Swedish gas market are likely toremain modest
- Switching Forecasts July 2008 - Residential: 9%Non-residential: 17%
- The immature and undeveloped nature of the Swedish gasmarket mean that
both current and future scores are modest
- Sweden - Power
- The Swedish Market Framework metrics are likely to move upthe scale by
July 2008 - Power
- Effectiveness of regulator - Current Score: 2.5 / July2008 Score: 4
- Ease of Third Party Access - Current Score: 6.5 / July2008 Score: 7.5
- Effectiveness of balancing & data transfer - CurrentScore: 5 /
July 2008 Score: 7
- Supplier Push metrics are driven by the existence of theNord Pool
market
- Wholesale market fragmentation - Current Score: 7 / July2008 Score:
8.5
- Retail market fragmentation - Current Score: 6.5 / July2008 Score:
6.5
- Traded market maturity - Current Score: 10 / July 2008Score: 10
- Customer Pull factors score relatively highly, though areunlikely to
move significantly between now and 2008
- Access to market information & assistance - CurrentScore: 7 /
July 2008 Score: 8
- Consumer representation - Current Score: 7 / July 2008Score: 7
- Propensity to switch - Current Score: 7 / July 2008 Score:7.5
- Strong rates of switching are likely to continue into 2008in both the
residential and non-residential sectors
- Switching Forecasts July 2008 - Residential: 38%Non-residential: 52%
- Given its already developed market Sweden's power metricsshow only
limited movement between now and 2008
- United Kingdom - Gas
- The developed and fully deregulated nature of the UKmarket allows it
to achieve the highest Market Framework score in thisstudy
- Effectiveness of regulator - Current Score: 7.5 / July2008 Score: 7.5
- Ease of Third Party Access - Current Score: 10 / July 2008Score: 10
- The maturity of the UK's wholesale market has a strongimpact on the
Supplier Push metrics
- Wholesale market fragmentation - Current Score: 8.7 / July2008
Score: 9
- Retail market fragmentation - Current Score: 6.5 / July2008 Score:
6.5
- Traded market maturity - Current Score: 10 / July 2008Score: 10
- High levels of switching, and facilities to assist thisswitching,
result in high Customer Pull scores
- Access to market information & assistance - CurrentScore: 10 /
July 2008 Score: 10
- Consumer representation - Current Score: 9 / July 2008Score: 9
- Propensity to switch - Current Score: 9 / July 2008 Score:9
- Switching rates will continue to develop, though at aslower rate than
in other markets given the already advanced stage ofliberalisation
previously reached
- Switching Forecasts July 2008 - Residential: 49%Non-residential: 80%
- The UK's role as a major gas producer and its maturemarket structure
mean that most metrics score at the top end of the scale
- United Kingdom - Power
- The UK's Market Framework metrics all achieve scores atthe top end of
the scale
- Effectiveness of regulator - Current Score: 6.7 / July2008 Score: 7
- Ease of Third Party Access - Current Score: 9 / July 2008Score: 10
- Effectiveness of balancing & data transfer - CurrentScore: 9.5 /
July 2008 Score: 10
- Supplier Push metrics are driven by the existence of afragmented
wholesale market and the well developed traded market
- Wholesale market fragmentation - Current Score: 8 / July2008 Score: 9
- Retail market fragmentation - Current Score: 5.5 / July2008 Score: 7
- Traded market maturity - Current Score: 8.5 / July 2008Score: 9.5
- All of the UK's Customer Pull metrics score at, or closeto, the top
end of the scale
- Access to market information & assistance - CurrentScore: 10 /
July 2008 Score: 10
- Consumer representation - Current Score: 9 / July 2008Score: 9
- Propensity to switch - Current Score: 8.6 / July 2008Score: 9
- Switching activity will continue to develop in the UK,though at a
slower rate than in the less developed markets
- Switching Forecasts July 2008 - Residential: 53%Non-residential: 83%
- The UK's role as a major gas producer and its maturemarket structure
mean that most metrics score at the top end of the scale
- CHAPTER 5 COMPETITIVE OUTLOOK
- Current levels of competitive intensity in the selectedgas markets
reflect the widely differing market structures and levels ofmaturity
- Sweden and the UK lead the field in power marketcompetitive intensity
- By 2008 the UK will remain the most competitive market,though other
markets will be increasingly competitive to varying degrees
- In 2008 three of the selected markets will still registerzero
multiplicative scores
- Given its long history of liberalisation, it isunsurprising that the UK
achieves the highest gas and power scores
- The selected markets can be segmented into three maingroups in terms of
current competitive intensity
- By 2008 relative gas / power competitive intensity will beonly
marginally changed, though important differences lay in individualmetrics
and their changes over time
- Belgium
- The less well established nature of the power marketcompared to the
gas market drives a greater increase in score
- The emergence of the Belpex wholesale market will help newentrants
capitalise on opportunities in the Belgian power market
- Belgium - New Electricity Market Entrant Opportunities
- Belgium - New Electricity Market Entrant Threats
- The key threat facing new entrants to the Belgian gasmarket comes from
the presence of existing players
- Belgium - New Gas Market Entrant Opportunities
- Belgium - New Gas Market Entrant Threats
- Bulgaria
- Competitive intensity in both the gas and power marketswill remain
modest and is unlikely to develop for some considerable time
- Commercial opportunities remain limited in the Bulgarianpower market,
though potentially exist in the generation sector
- New Market Entrant Opportunities
- New Market Entrant Threats
- Commercial opportunities in the Bulgarian gas sector arelimited, but
potentially exist if wholesale gas supplies can be secured
- New Market Entrant Opportunities
- New Market Entrant Threats
- Croatia
- Despite improvements in all the metrics over the forecastperiod, both
the gas and power multiplicative scores remain at zero
- By 2008 competitive intensity in the Croatian power marketwill have
shown only marginal improvement
- Croatia - New Electricity Market Entrant Opportunities
- Croatia - New Electricity Market Entrant Threats
- The pro-competition regulator on its own will beinsufficient to
overcome the other factors holding back competitiveintensity
- Croatia - New Gas Market Entrant Opportunities
- Croatia - New Gas Market Entrant Threats
- Czech Republic
- Competitive intensity in the Czech power market willcontinue to lead
that seen in the gas market
- New entrants to the Czech power markets will need tomitigate the
threat posed by dominant players and low switching
- Czech Republic - New Electricity Market EntrantOpportunities
- Czech Republic - New Electricity Market Entrant Threats
- Commercial opportunities in the Czech gas market appear tobe very
limited both now and by 2008
- Czech Republic - New Gas Market Entrant Opportunities
- Czech Republic - New Gas Market Entrant Threats
- Denmark
- Competitive intensity in the Danish gas market willcontinue to lag
behind that seen in the electricity market
- Denmark achieves the highest power market competitiveintensity score
of the markets surveyed
- New Market Entrant Opportunities
- New Market Entrant Threats
- Commercial opportunities in the Danish gas sector willcontinue to
trail than those in the electricity market
- New Market Entrant Opportunities
- New Market Entrant Threats
- France
- France's current levels of competitive intensity are low,though a
strong improvement in gas competitiveness can be expected
- The dominance and formidable challenge represented by EDFmeans that
new entrants need to aggressively build market share at thelowest possible
cost
- France - New Electricity Market Entrant Opportunities
- France - New Electricity Market Entrant Threats
- New gas market entrants will need to overcome a series ofthreats in
the short term, though by 2008 significant commercialopportunities will
exist, particularly in the south of the country
- France - New Gas Market Entrant Opportunities
- France - New Gas Market Entrant Threats
- Germany
- Significant progress is likely to be made in thecompetitive intensity
of the German gas market in the coming two years
- Mitigating regulatory uncertainty and ensuring costeffective TPA are
the key challenges facing entrants to the German powermarket
- Germany - New Electricity Market Entrant Opportunities
- Germany - New Electricity Market Entrant Threats
- Germany's gas market competitiveness intensity shows astrong
improvement over the forecast period
- Germany - New Gas Market Entrant Opportunities
- Germany - New Gas Market Entrant Threats
- Greece
- Despite the progress that will be made in various metrics,both the gas
and power metrics remain at zero in 2008
- The ongoing dominance of PPC will continue to restraincommercial
opportunities for new players in the Greek power market
- Greece - New Electricity Market Entrant Opportunities
- Greece - New Electricity Market Entrant Threats
- Strong demand growth and significant future gasificationprospects
create opportunities in the Greek gas market if structural riskscan be
mitigated
- Greece - New Gas Market Entrant Opportunities
- Greece - New Gas Market Entrant Threats
- Hungary
- Development in competitive intensity in the Hungarian gasmarket will
continue to lag behind that seen in the electricity market
- Short term commercial opportunities in the Hungarianelectricity market
remain extremely limited
- New Market Entrant Opportunities
- New Market Entrant Threats
- High levels of gas penetration and the role of existingplayers
significantly curtail opportunities in the Hungarian gas market
- New Market Entrant Opportunities
- New Market Entrant Threats
- Ireland
- In spite of being in its relative infancy, the Irish gasmarket is at a
similar stage of competitiveness to the power market
- Despite a favourable TPA regime, new entrants will need toensure they
gain access to power and overcome switching lethargy
- Ireland - New Electricity Market Entrant Opportunities
- Ireland - - New Electricity Market Entrant Threats
- The issues facing new entrants to the Irish gas market aresimilar to
those facing entrants to the power market
- Ireland - - New Gas Market Entrant Opportunities
- Ireland - New Gas Market Entrant Threats
- Italy
- Competitiveness in both the Italian gas and power marketsis in the mid
range of the other markets analysed
- The opportunities in the Italian power market are strongerthan in many
other markets, though grid issues need careful attention
- Italy - New Electricity Market Entrant Opportunities
- Italy - New Electricity Market Entrant Threats
- Gas market switching rates are currently twice those inseen the power
market
- Italy - New Gas Market Entrant Opportunities
- Italy - New Gas Market Entrant Threats
- Latvia
- Limited progress in competitive intensity over theforecast period
results in zero multiplicative scores for both gas andpower in 2008
- The ongoing position of Latvenergo significantly limitsthe
attractiveness of Latvia to new market entrants
- Latvia - New Electricity Market Entrant Opportunities
- Latvia - New Electricity Market Entrant Threats
- Low MCI scores indicate that few, if any, commercialopportunities
exist in the Latvian gas market during the forecast period
- Latvia - New Gas Market Entrant Opportunities
- Latvia - New Gas Market Entrant Threats
- Netherlands
- Relatively liquid traded wholesale markets are keyelements leading to
high levels of competitive intensity in the Dutchmarkets
- With a stable regulatory environment and a mature tradedmarket, the
Dutch power sector has its attractions to new entrants, thoughbalancing
efficiently remains an issue
- Netherlands - New Electricity Market Entrant Opportunities
- Netherlands - New Electricity Market Entrant Threats
- Despite being the most competitive market after the UKboth now and
2008, opportunities in the Dutch gas market may be limited bythe wave of
new entrants with first mover advantage
- Netherlands - New Gas Market Entrant Opportunities
- Netherlands - New Gas Market Entrant Threats
- Poland
- There is a wide degree of diversity between the levels ofcompetitive
intensity in the Polish gas and power markets
- Growing environmental pressures are creating strongcommercial
opportunities for generators
- Poland - New Electricity Market Entrant Opportunities
- Poland - New Electricity Market Entrant Threats
- The difficulties associated with obtaining gas are justone of the many
reasons why the Polish gas market is an unattractiveoption for new entrants
- Poland - New Gas Market Entrant Opportunities
- Poland - New Gas Market Entrant Threats
- Romania
- Romania's gas market competitive intensity continues tolag behind that
seen in the power market
- Low levels of per capita demand combined with strongeconomic growth
point to significant growth potential
- New Market Entrant Opportunities
- New Market Entrant Threats
- Limited levels of competitive intensity mean that upstreamactivity is
one of the few opportunities available in the short term
- New Market Entrant Opportunities
- New Market Entrant Threats
- Russia
- At the end of the forecast period Russia's power marketwill show
significantly more competitive intensity than the gas market
- The reform of RAO UES potentially creates commercialopportunities for
new players to enter the Russian market
- Russia - New Electricity Market Entrant Opportunities
- Russia - New Electricity Market Entrant Threats
- The dominance of Gazprom means that only marginalopportunities exist
in the short to medium term in the Russian gas market
- Russia - New Gas Market Entrant Opportunities
- Russia - New Gas Market Entrant Threats
- Slovenia
- Slovenia's overall gas scores remain around half the levelof those
seen in the electricity market
- Low switching rates and weak Customer Pull metrics limitopportunities
in the Slovenian power market in the near term future
- New Market Entrant Opportunities
- New Market Entrant Threats
- Despite strong demand growth potential, Slovenia's gasmarket
opportunities remain modest owing to structural factors
- New Market Entrant Opportunities
- New Market Entrant Threats
- Spain
- Although the gas and power markets are currently atdifferent stages of
development, their competitive intensity scoresconverge in 2008
- Developments in the Spanish power market will createimproved
competitive intensity, though challenges remain to be overcome
- Spain - New Electricity Market Entrant Opportunities
- Spain - New Electricity Market Entrant Threats
- Strong demand growth and continued gasification enhancethe
attractiveness of the Spanish market to new players
- Spain - New Gas Market Entrant Opportunities
- Spain - New Gas Market Entrant Threats
- Sweden
- Sweden's position as the second most competitive powermarket is in
direct contrast to its zero rated gas market
- Concerns over regulatory stability and the existingdominant players
will somewhat temper the otherwise attractive nature ofthe market
- Sweden - New Electricity Market Entrant Opportunities
- Sweden - New Electricity Market Entrant Threats
- The current opportunities in the Swedish gas market appearto be
extremely limited with little improvement likely before at least2010
- Sweden - New Gas Market Entrant Opportunities
- Sweden - New Gas Market Entrant Threats
- United Kingdom
- The UK unsurprisingly achieves the highest competitiveintensity scores
in both the gas and power markets
- Commercial opportunities do exist in the UK power market,though the
high level of competitive intensity means that they are moredifficult to
capitalise on than in other less advanced markets
- UK- New Electricity Market Entrant Opportunities
- UK - New Electricity Market Entrant Threats
- The strong level of competitive intensity in the UK meansthat the
market place is in many ways crowded
- UK - New Gas Market Entrant Opportunities
- UK - New Gas Market Entrant Threats
- Significant market reform in the Russian power sectorresults in a
significant delta power score
- Despite seeing only small increases in their power marketscores, the UK
remains the most attractive non-residential power marketsto enter due to
high switching rates
- A particularly stark trade off exists in the residentialgas market
between the attractions of high switching rates andimprovements in
competitiveness
- Spain's strong demand growth and higher than peer groupswitching rates
help it stand out as an attractive non-residential gasmarket
- Despite the liberalisation process and movement towards asingle European
market, the idiosyncrasies of each market need to becarefully assessed by
new market entrants
- CHAPTER 6 APPENDIX
- The UK will continue to lead power market switchingactivity, though
switching activity in all markets will continue todevelop
- Gas market switching will continue to develop in bothsectors of all the
markets, though the UK will continue to lead the field
- Glossary of terms
- CHAPTER 7 METHODOLOGY
- An extensive series of expert interviews were undertakento validate the
scoring metrics in the Phase 1 markets
- Related reports and contact details
- List of Tables
- Table 1: Forecast switching rates 1st July 2008
- List of Figures
- Figure 1: Summary MCI Additive Power Scores
- Figure 2: Summary MCI Additive Gas Scores
- Figure 3: Markets covered by the MCI Index
- Figure 4: MCI Index Scoring Scale
- Figure 5: MCI Index Scoring Metrics
- Figure 6: Phase 1 and Phase 2 MCI Markets
- Figure 7: Adjusting scores and metrics using theaccompanying model
- Figure 8: MCI Metrics
- Figure 9: Effectiveness of regulator scoring scale
- Figure 10: Ease of Third Party Access scoring scale
- Figure 11: Effectiveness of balancing & datatransfer scoring scale
- Figure 12: Wholesale market fragmentation scoring scale
- Figure 13: Retail market fragmentation scoring scale
- Figure 14: Traded market maturity scoring scale
- Figure 15: Access to market information & assistancescoring scale
- Figure 16: Consumer representation scoring scale
- Figure 17: Propensity to switch scoring scale
- Figure 18: Who is this report aimed at?
- Figure 19: Electricity demand growth 1995 to 2004
- Figure 20: Gas demand growth 1995 to 2004
- Figure 21: Sectoral Electricity Demand
- Figure 22: Sectoral Gas Demand
- Figure 23: 10 Year Gas and Power Demand CAGR (to 2004)
- Figure 24: Belgium summary gas scores
- Figure 25: Belgium summary power scores
- Figure 26: Bulgaria summary gas scores
- Figure 27: Bulgaria summary power scores
- Figure 28: Croatia summary gas scores
- Figure 29: Croatia summary power scores
- Figure 30: Czech Republic summary gas scores
- Figure 31: Czech Republic summary power scores
- Figure 32: Denmark summary gas scores
- Figure 33: Denmark summary power scores
- Figure 34: France summary gas scores
- Figure 35: France summary power scores
- Figure 36: Germany summary gas scores
- Figure 37: Germany summary power scores
- Figure 38: Greece summary gas scores
- Figure 39: Greece summary power scores
- Figure 40: Hungary summary gas scores
- Figure 41: Hungary summry power scores
- Figure 42: Ireland summary gas scores
- Figure 43: Ireland summary power scores
- Figure 44: Italy summary gas scores
- Figure 45: Italy summary power scores
- Figure 46: Latvia summary gas scores
- Figure 47: Latvia summary power scores
- Figure 48: Netherlands summary gas scores
- Figure 49: Netherlands summary power scores
- Figure 50: Poland summary gas scores
- Figure 51: Poland summary power scores
- Figure 52: Romania summary gas scores
- Figure 53: Romania summary power scores
- Figure 54: Russia summary gas scores
- Figure 55: Russia summary power scores
- Figure 56: Slovenia summary gas scores
- Figure 57: Slovenia summary power scores
- Figure 58: Spain summary gas scores
- Figure 59: Spain summary power scores
- Figure 60: Sweden summary gas scores
- Figure 61: Sweden summary power scores
- Figure 62: UK summary gas scores
- Figure 63: UK summary power scores
- Figure 64: Current summary gas scores
- Figure 65: Current summary power scores
- Figure 66: 2008 summary gas scores
- Figure 67: 2008 summary power scores
- Figure 68: Current additive gas score vs power score
- Figure 69: 2008 additive gas score vs power score
- Figure 70: Belgium scores by metric
- Figure 71: Bulgaria scores by metric
- Figure 72: Croatia scores by metric
- Figure 73: Czech Republic scores by metric
- Figure 74: Denmark scores by metric
- Figure 75: France scores by metric
- Figure 76: Germany scores by metric
- Figure 77: Greece scores by metric
- Figure 78: Hungary scores by metric
- Figure 79: Ireland scores by metric
- Figure 80: Italy scores by metric
- Figure 81: Latvia scores by metric
- Figure 82: Netherlands scores by metric
- Figure 83: Poland scores by metrics
- Figure 84: Romania scores by metric
- Figure 85: Russia scores by metric
- Figure 86: Slovenia scores by metric
- Figure 87: Spain scores by metric
- Figure 88: Sweden scores by metric
- Figure 89: UK scores by metric
- Figure 90: Increases in Additive Power scores vs 2008Residential Power
Switching Rate
- Figure 91: Increases in Additive Power scores vs 2008Non-Residential
Power Switching Rate
- Figure 92: Increases in Additive Gas scores vs 2008Residential Gas
Switching Rate
- Figure 93: Increases in Additive Gas scores vs 2008Non-Residential Gas
Switching Rate
- Figure 94: Electricity switching forecasts by market
- Figure 95: Gas switching forecasts by market
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