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SUMMARY
Overview
Introduction
The non-standard consumer credit market experienced a number of challenges
over 2005, as the economy slowed and a number of bad debt indicators crept up.
Moreover, the industry continues to face a barrage of regulatory and media
attention. So, what does the future hold and how are non-standard lenders
adapting to the challenges facing their industry? This report provides the
answers.
Scope
- Sizes the non-standard motor finance, the home collected credit and the
non-standard credit card markets in the UK.
- Forecasts each sector to 2010, providing three contrasting scenarios.
- Gives insight into the future challenges of each market and how lenders
could respond.
- Incorporates primary interviews from industry experts and secondary data
from a wide range of sources.
Report Highlights
In 2005, 9.1 million individuals were systematically refused credit by
mainstream lenders. However, 2005 was a turning point as a number of factors
that had previously contributed to a declining non-standard population changed
direction, including unemployment, mortgage arrears and repossessions, and
County Court Judgments (CCJs).
The last five years have seen a lackluster performance in the home collected
credit market. In particular, the market has not quite yet managed to recover
from stagnation in 2003. The future for lenders also looks difficult, with
lenders having to cope with additional regulation.
As virtually all mainstream credit card lenders tightened their lending
criteria over the course of 2005, more sub-prime applicants were denied a
credit card than in previous years. As a result, the sub-prime specialist
lenders in the market have benefited from an additional number of potential
customers over 2005.
Reasons to Purchase
- Understand how the market is changing and where the new opportunities lie.
- In-depth analysis of how lenders are coping with a number of issues
allowing you to reassess your strategy.
- Plan your future business strategy in confidence using Datamonitor's
five-year market forecasts.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
- CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Introduction
- Sizing the UK non-standard population in 2005
- Datamonitor estimates that the non-standard population stood at 9.1
million in 2005
- Underlying macro-economic factors ultimately drive the non-standard
population
- Social trends also play a key role in driving the non-standard
population
- The non-standard population will rise gradually to 9.42 million by 2010
- Overview of the UK consumer credit market in 2005
- The consumer credit market delivered a subdued performance in 2005
- Bad debts are on the rise as consumer debt continues to creep upwards
- Consumer debt continued its ascending trend in 2005
- Lenders are now feeling the strain as bad debts are rising
- The non-standard motor finance market
- Non-standard motor finance continued to fall in 2005
- For many providers, the non-standard motor finance market is not an
easy space to be in at present
- Yet the non-standard market is likely to grow in the future
- The home collected credit market
- While the market grew in 2005, providers nevertheless experienced
another difficult year
- Home collected credit balances outstanding reached £1.2 billion in
2005, but the market remains sluggish
- The home collected credit market continues to be dominated by the
'big four'
- In addition, the home collected credit market is under increased
pressure from regulation
- Most recently, the Competition Commission found that the market was
uncompetitive and needed improvement
- With a slew of significant changes ahead, providers face a tough
future
- Forecasting the home collected credit market
- The non-standard credit card market
- The market is composed of mainstream and specialist providers
- Barclaycard, Capital One, Citibank, HSBC, and RBS are all active in
this market
- Specialist issuers target the lower end of the non-standard spectrum
- The non-standard market became more difficult for mainstream lenders
in 2005
- Growth was not as strong in the non-standard credit card market in
2005 as the previous year
- Mainstream lenders tightened their lending criteria but many still
saw bad debts surge
- Sub-prime specialist lenders are benefiting as a result
- Datamonitor forecasts strong growth in the non-standard credit card
market
- CHAPTER 2 INTRODUCTION
- What is this report about?
- Who is the target reader?
- How do use this report?
- CHAPTER 3 SIZING THE UK NON-STANDARD POPULATION IN 2005
- Introduction
- Defining the non-standard population
- Lending products: altering the dynamics of demand and supply
- Subjectivity is a necessary evil
- Alternative commonly used terms
- Sub-prime is a segment of non-standard
- Report coverage: age and affordability
- Datamonitor estimates that the non-standard population stood at 9.1
million in 2005
- A combination of macro-economic and social factors is responsible for a
declining non-standard population in recent years
- Underlying macro-economic factors ultimately drive the non-standard
population
- Unemployment is now rising
- Interest rates play a pivotal role in driving the non-standard
population
- Mortgage arrears and repossessions have risen recently
- 2005 witnessed the first rise in registered CCJs in fifteen years
- Personal bankruptcies hit a record high in 2005
- Social trends also play a key role in driving the non-standard
population
- According to Datamonitor's estimations, just over two million
individuals were without a bank account in 2005 in the UK
- Self-employment numbers have been increasing particularly strongly
in recent years
- The number of income support recipients has fallen moderately
- The non-standard population will rise gradually to 9.42 million by 2010
- CHAPTER 4 OVERVIEW OF THE UK CONSUMER CREDIT MARKET IN 2005
- Introduction
- The consumer credit market delivered a subdued performance in 2005
- Consumer credit balances outstanding continued to grow in 2005 but
gross advances dropped slightly
- In terms of balances outstanding, cards and loans account for the bulk
of consumer credit
- Credit card and unsecured personal loan balances outstanding increased
in 2005, albeit at a slower rate
- On the whole, unsecured personal loans have gained market share while
credit cards have lost share
- In terms of gross advances, credit cards were the hardest hit in 2005
- Yet credit cards have grown their market share most since 2001
- Bad debts are on the rise as consumer debt continues to creep upwards
- Consumer debt continued its ascending trend in 2005
- Lenders are now feeling the strain as bad debts are rising
- Consequently, some lenders are introducing measures to manage bad
debts and improve the quality of their unsecured lending book
- In addition, PPI is under investigation
- The PPI market is facing increased scrutiny from regulatory bodies
- PPI is an important income stream for prime and non-standard lenders
- PPI is a lucrative business for banks
- Hence, increased regulatory pressure in the PPI sector may see lenders
lose in terms of profitability
- For more information....
- CHAPTER 5 THE NON-STANDARD MOTOR FINANCE MARKET
- Introduction
- The total UK motor finance market faced another difficult year in 2005
- The motor finance sector continued to struggle in 2005
- Balances outstanding in the point of sale new car finance market
declined in 2005
- Gross lending in both the used car and new car finance markets fell
in 2005
- Hire purchase agreements in both the new and used car finance
markets had a difficult year in 2005
- A number of factors account for this decline
- Car sales have not performed well over the past five years and
declined again in 2005
- Average car prices have fallen in the long-term
- There is evidence that the poor performance of the point of sale
motor finance sector is a long-term issue of falling penetration, rather
than cyclical movement
- Non-standard motor finance continued to fall in 2005
- Datamonitor uses five steps to size the value of the non-standard
motor finance market
- Step 1: Estimating the size of the non-standard population and the
number of non-standard households in the UK
- Step 2: Estimating the level of car ownership among non-standard
households
- Step 3: Splitting total non-standard car purchases into new and used
cars
- Step 4: Calculating total non-standard car purchases
- Step 5: Estimating the size of the non-standard motor finance market
- The non-standard motor finance market experienced another decrease in
2005
- The non-standard motor finance market has put in a poor performance
in recent years, even in comparison to the mainstream market
- There are a number of explanations as to why the non-standard market
performed so badly over the past five years
- For many providers, the non-standard motor finance market is not an easy
space to be in at present
- Non-standard lenders are being squeezed by competition
- There are a number of different business models in the non-standard
motor finance market
- Squeezed by captives and direct providers, independents have had to
explore new markets, such as the non-standard sector
- Direct providers continue to offer another competitive threat
- Yet those providers supplying both cars and finance also suffered at
the hands of competition in 2005
- Yes Car Credit's closure also raises the question of viability for
similar providers
- Rising bad debt has hit many providers
- Moreover, regulation has also dented profits
- Motor financiers are losing income because of outdated regulations
on voluntary terminations
- Changes in early settlement rules have affected point of sale motor
finance providers' profits
- Moreover, the amended CCA has led to a longer sales process
- PPI income has fallen following the new FSA regulations
- Yet providers continue to invest in the market, showing that it remains
attractive to some
- New entrants have come into the market
- Blue Motor Finance entered the market in January 2006
- Provident Financial launched yesinsurance.co.uk in August 2005
- Santander Consumer Finance UK launched into the prime motor finance
market
- Lenders are investing in technology in order to differentiate
themselves from competitors
- Providers are investing in decision systems in order to gain business
- In addition, some non-standard lenders are now investing more in the
Internet
- Indeed, the non-standard market is likely to grow in the future
- Datamonitor's methodology quantifies motor finance penetration among
non-standard consumers
- In Datamonitor's opinion, the non-standard motor finance market will
grow at a quicker rate over the next five years than it has over the
previous five years
- Non-standard motor finance gross advances will increase by an
average of 4.3 per cent each year to 2010
- Under a best case scenario for the future of the UK economy, the
non-standard motor finance market will struggle compared to the market as
a whole
- Non-standard motor finance market is forecasted to perform slightly
worse under these assumptions
- Under a worst case scenario, the non-standard motor finance market
will perform well
- Non-standard motor finance gross advances will increase by 7.1 per
cent per year under a worst case scenario
- CHAPTER 6 THE HOME COLLECTED CREDIT MARKET
- The non-standard unsecured personal loans market has grown rapidly in
recent years, but the sub-prime element is still very small
- The home collected credit market is a sub-sector of the non-standard
unsecured personal loans market
- Sizing the non-standard unsecured personal loans market
- The non-standard unsecured personal loans market is worth £27.3 billion
- Much of the market is composed of self-employed individuals, rather
than sub-prime individuals
- While the home credit market grew in 2005, providers nevertheless
experienced another difficult year
- Datamonitor's methodology for sizing the home collected credit market
is based on two measures
- Please note that accounting standards have changed since the last
publication of this report, causing some market figures to change
- Home collected credit balances outstanding reached £1.2 billion in
2005, but the market remains sluggish
- Indeed, lenders found 2005 yet another very difficult year
- Such a lackluster performance is reinforced when compared to that of
the non-standard unsecured personal loans market
- The home collected credit market continues to be dominated by the 'big
four'
- However, the big four's share of the market has decreased over the
past five years
- But the big four have maintained their position at the top for many
years
- Many providers have struggled in recent years
- A number of factors have made for a tougher market
- The market has become increasingly mature
- Home credit providers have seen an increase in bad debts
particularly over 2005
- Customers increasingly depend on more than one provider for their
credit needs
- In addition, regulation has made it more expensive to operate in the
market
- As a result, the major lenders continue to reduce their exposure to
the market
- Provident continues to diversify into other non-standard credit
markets
- S&U continues to diversify its non-standard consumer credit
portfolio
- Meanwhile, Cattles is focusing upon building up its direct repayment
division
- London Scottish is also moving away from its door-to-door lending
business
- In addition, the home collected credit market is under increased
pressure from regulation
- The home collected credit market has received a large amount of
regulatory scrutiny in recent years
- 2003 saw the first damning report on home collected credit appear
- The market also falls under the Consumer Credit Bill
- In addition, the market is now under scrutiny by the Competitition
Commission
- Most recently, the Competition Commission found that the market was
uncompetitive and needed improvement
- The Competition Commission found a number of negative
characteristics prevalent in the market
- The Competition Commission's possible remedies include data sharing
and providing price information
- The CC will consult with lenders before publishing its final report
in July
- With a slew of significant changes ahead, providers face a tough
future ahead
- The industry feels that regulation simply poses too much of an
administrative and financial burden
- Many believe that small to medium sized providers are beginning to
leave the market
- In the end, it could be that consumers pay the highest price
- Yet besides credit cards, other external sources of credit remain a very
limited threat to the home collected credit market
- Government initiatives still pose little competitive threat
- There are a number of Government initiatives to assist the
financially excluded and to lessen their reliance on home collected
credit
- Overdrafts and basic bank accounts to non-standard individuals are not
a replacement to home credit
- Credit unions do not pose a real competitive threat just yet
- However, alternative commercial sources of credit have the potential
to pose greater competitive threat
- Payday loans could potentially offer a greater competitive threat in
the future
- Cheque cashers represent a limited threat
- Pawnbrokers are a threat of sorts
- Forecasting the home collected credit market
- Datamonitor's methodology calculates home collected credit's
penetration of the non-standard population
- In Datamonitor's opinion, the UK home collected credit market will
grow at a very slow pace
- According to Datamonitor's neutral forecasting scenario, the home
collected credit market will grow on average by 1.1 per cent each year
to 2010
- Under a best case scenario for the future of the UK economy, the home
collected credit market is forecasted to decline significantly
- Under Datamonitor's optimistic forecasting scenario, the home
collected credit market will decline on average by 3.0 per cent each
year to 2010
- However, should the economy take a real turn for the worse, the home
collected credit market will reap the benefits
- Under the pessimistic forecasting scenario, the home collected
credit market will grow on average by 3.3 per cent each year to 2010
- CHAPTER 7 THE NON-STANDARD CREDIT CARD MARKET
- Unlike the mainstream credit card market, the non-standard market
provides clear opportunities for growth
- Saturation and competition in the mainstream market have made the
relative profitability of this segment even greater
- This competitive pressure has driven down price and, with it, issuer
margins
- Mainstream issuers stand to benefit from a combination of higher
margins, revenues and future cross-sales
- Non-standard credit card lending accounted for 9.9 million cards in
issue in 2005
- Datamonitor's estimation methodology
- The non-standard credit card market accounts for 13.7 per cent of
the total UK credit card market
- The self-employed population accounts for over half of the
non-standard credit card market
- The rest of the non-standard market is divided unevenly among the
remaining groups
- The non-standard credit card market amounted to £12.6 billion in 2005
- Datamonitor's estimation methodology
- Datamonitor estimates that the non-standard credit card market was
worth £12.6 billion in 2005
- The majority of this is accounted for by the self-employed
- The market is composed of mainstream and specialist providers
- Barclaycard, Capital One, Citibank, HSBC, and RBS are all active in
this market
- Several mainstream players have acquired specialist lenders in order
to gain the expertise needed to issue in this market
- There are several advantages to this approach, as compared to direct
market entry
- Mainstream players have used different branding strategies to enter
this market
- Market entry through a subsidiary allows mainstream issuers to
protect their prime brand/s
- However, Capital One and Citibank have stayed faithful to their
prime brands
- Other specialist issuers target the lower end of the non-standard
spectrum
- Profile: SAV Credit
- Profile: Vanquis Bank
- The non-standard market became more difficult for mainstream lenders in
2005
- Growth was not as strong in the non-standard credit card market in
2005 as in the previous year
- Mainstream lenders tightened their lending criteria but many still saw
bad debts surge
- Sub-prime specialist lenders are benefiting as a result
- For example, Vanquis has continued to grow rapidly
- SAV Credit also continues to expand
- As a result, sub-prime specialist providers are confident about the
future
- It is likely that other firms will eventually enter the non-standard
market
- MasterCard launched a pre-paid card targeting the UK sub-prime
market in September 2005
- Datamonitor forecasts strong growth in the non-standard credit card
market
- Datamonitor's five-year forecast for the non-standard credit card
market
- Datamonitor's estimation methodology
- Datamonitor forecasts the non-standard credit card market to be
worth £17.5 billion in 2010
- Growth will be fastest among those with checkered or limited credit
histories
- A number of factors are forecast to drive growth in the non-standard
credit card market
- CHAPTER 8 APPENDIX
- Supplementary data
- Data tables relating to Chapter 3: Sizing the UK Non-standard
Population in 2005
- Data tables relating to Chapter 4: Overview of the UK Consumer Credit
Market in 2005
- Data tables relating to Chapter 5: The Non-standard Motor Finance
Market
- Data tables relating to Chapter 6: The Home Collected Credit Market
- Data tables relating to Chapter 7: The Non-standard Credit Card Market
- Definitions
- AAGR
- Balances outstanding
- CAGR
- Exclusive distribution
- Gross advances
- Hire purchase
- Installment credit
- Intermediaries or purchasing agents
- Leasing
- Mail order
- Personal Contract Purchase (PCP)
- Personal Loans (PoS)
- Retail finance
- Selective distribution
- Store cards
- Unsecured personal loan
- Research methodology
- Relevant readings
- Future readings
- Relevant links
- Datamonitor's custom research capabilities
- The Retail Banking team
- How to contact experts in your industry
- List of Tables
- Table 1: Balances outstanding and gross advances in the consumer
credit market, 2001-2005
- Table 2: Balances outstanding and gross advances in the consumer
credit market, 2001-2005
- Table 3: Consumer credit balances outstanding by product, 2001-2005
- Table 4: Market share of consumer credit balances outstanding by
product line, 2001-2005
- Table 5: Consumer credit gross advances split by product, 2001-2005
- Table 6: Market share of gross advances in the consumer credit market
by product line, 2001-2005e
- Table 7: Consumer debt write-offs by banks by lending type, 2004-05
- Table 8: New car finance gross advances by product line, 2001-2005
- Table 9: Used car finance gross advances by product line, 2001-2005
- Table 10: New and used private car sales in the UK, 2001-2005
- Table 11: Responses to the question 'was the car you bought or leased
new or used' by socio-economic group, 2001
- Table 12: Number of non-standard car sales, 2001-2005
- Table 13: New, used and total cars sold to non-standard buyers,
compared to all car buyers, 2001-2005
- Table 14: Used car sales by channel, 2001-2005
- Table 15: Value of the market for non-standard point-of-sale motor
finance (in terms of gross advances), 2001-2005
- Table 16: Forecasted non-standard motor finance market gross advances
compared to total motor finance market gross advances under Datamonitor's
neutral scenario, 2004-2009f
- Table 17: Forecasted non-standard motor finance market gross advances
compared to total motor finance market gross advances under a best case
scenario, 2005-2010f
- Table 18: Forecasted non-standard motor finance market gross advances
compared to total motor finance market gross advances under a worst case
scenario, 2005-2010f
- Table 19: UK home collected credit balances outstanding by competitor,
2001-2005e
- Table 20: Administrative timetable for the Competition Commission's
inquiry into the home collected credit market, 2006
- Table 21: SAV Credit fact file, 2006
- Table 22: Vanquis Bank fact file, 2006
- Table 23: UK non-standard population, 2001-2005e
- Table 24: UK Non-standard population forecasts according to
Datamonitor's neutral scenario, 2005e-2010f
- Table 25: Debt write-offs by banks (individuals), Q1 2004-Q4 2005
- Table 26: New and used car motor finance balances outstanding,
2001-2005
- Table 27: New and used car motor finance gross advances, 2001-2005
- Table 28: Used cars sales by distribution channels, 2001-2005
- Table 29: Mainstream and non-standard unsecured personal loan gross
advances and balances outstanding, 2001-2005
- Table 30: The home collected credit market gross advances and balances
outstanding, 2001-2005
- Table 31: Non-standard unsecured personal loans and home collected
credit balances outstanding, 2001-2005
- Table 32: Estimated market share of the four leading providers in the
home collected credit market, 2000-2004
- Table 33: Indexed balances outstanding of the leading home collected
credit providers, 2001-2005
- Table 34: Compound annual growth in gross advances by lending product,
2001-2005
- Table 35: Balances outstanding by division, Provident Financial,
2002-2005
- Table 36: Gross customer account receivables and estimated home
collected credit balances outstanding, Cattles, 2001-2005
- Table 37: Indexed customer credit receivables by type of repayment,
Cattles, 2002-2005
- Table 38: London Scottish gross customers' account receivables and
estimated home collection balances outstanding, 2001-2005
- Table 39: Datamonitor's neutral forecasts for the home collected
credit market, 2005-2010f
- Table 40: Datamonitor's optimistic forecasts for the home collected
credit market, 2005-2010f
- Table 41: Datamonitor's pessimistic forecasts for the home collected
credit market, 2005-2010f
- Table 42: Estimated number of cards in issue and average number of
cards per person for the non-standard population by reason of being
non-standard, 2005e
- Table 43: Estimated size of the UK non-standard credit card market,
segmented by individuals that are self-employed with no other reason to be
non-standard and other non-standard, 2003e-2005e
- Table 44: Consumer debt write-offs by banks by lending type, 1996-2005
- Table 45: Forecast size of the UK non-standard credit card market,
segmented by individuals that are self-employed with no other reason to be
non-standard and other non-standard, 2005e-2010f
- List of Figures
- Figure 1: The UK non-standard population continues to decline, falling
to an estimated 9.1 million in 2005, 2001-2005e
- Figure 2: According to Datamonitor's neutral forecast, the
non-standard population will gradually increase to 9.42 million by 2010,
2005e-2010f
- Figure 3: Balances outstanding in the consumer credit market continued
to grow but gross advances fell slightly in 2005, 2001-2005
- Figure 4: The average consumer debt increased by 5.0 per cent to
£4,122 in 2005, 2001-2005
- Figure 5: Unsecured debt write-offs have accelerated in 2005, 2004/05
Q1 - 2004/05 Q4
- Figure 6: The value of point of sale motor finance extended to
non-standard buyers has fallen considerably over the last five years,
2001-2005
- Figure 7: According to Datamonitor's assumptions, the non-standard
motor finance market will grow on average by 4.3 per cent each year under
this scenario, 2005-2010f
- Figure 8: On the whole, both gross advances and balances outstanding
have stagnated in the home collected credit market in recent years, though
2005 saw a small lift, 2001-2005
- Figure 9: Under Datamonitor's neutral scenario, the home collected
credit market is forecasted to grow by an average of 1.1 per cent each
year to 2010, 2005-2010f
- Figure 10: The non-standard credit card market experienced growth in
2005, but not as much as the previous year, 2003e-2005e
- Figure 11: Datamonitor covers the non-standard and sub-prime lending
market in 2006 with a suite of three published reports
- Figure 12: Datamonitor's definition of non-standard
- Figure 13: A certain degree of subjectivity is needed in a definition
of the non-standard population because some mainstream lenders are
inevitably willing to accept greater risk than others
- Figure 14: Common terms used to refer to the circumstance defined by
Datamonitor as "non-standard"
- Figure 15: Sub-prime consumers represent a segment of the non-standard
population
- Figure 16: The UK non-standard population continues to decline,
falling to an estimated 9.1 million in 2005, 2001-2005e
- Figure 17: According to Datamonitor's neutral forecast, the
non-standard population will gradually increase to 9.42 million by 2010,
2005e-2010f
- Figure 18: Balances outstanding in the consumer credit market
continued to grow but gross advances fell slightly in 2005, 2001-2005
- Figure 19: Unsecured personal loans were the fastest growing product
line in balances outstanding over the last five years, 2001-2005
- Figure 20: Unsecured personal loans gained an estimated 5.8 percentage
points, whereas credit cards lost share from 2001 to 2005, 2001-2005
- Figure 21: A flat performance for credit cards in 2005 in terms of
gross lending, whereas overdrafts continued to thrive, 2001-2005
- Figure 22: Credit cards has grown its market share by 5.6 percentage
points from 2001 to 2005 in gross advances, 2001-2005e
- Figure 23: The average consumer debt increased by 5.0 per cent to
£4,122 in 2005, 2001-2005
- Figure 24: Unsecured debt write-offs have accelerated in 2005, 2004/05
Q1 - 2004/05 Q4
- Figure 25: Outstanding balances in both new and used car finance fell
in 2005, 2001-2005
- Figure 26: Gross lending in both the new and used car finance markets
declined in 2005, 2001-2005
- Figure 27: Although still the dominant finance product in the new car
finance market, gross advances for hire purchase continue to fall,
2001-2005
- Figure 28: Hire purchase remains by far the dominant product line in
the used car finance market, 2001-2005
- Figure 29: New and used car sales both fell in 2005 and have put in
poor performances over the past five years, 2001-2005
- Figure 30: Private used car sales amounted to 3.5 million out of a
total 7.5 million used car sales in the UK in 2005, 2001-2005
- Figure 31: Average new and used car prices have fallen since 2001,
2001-2005
- Figure 32: The performance of the motor finance market is related to
the volume of cars sold, 2001 to 2005e
- Figure 33: FLA data shows that penetration of point of sale motor
finance is declining, 1997 and 2005
- Figure 34: Datamonitor's methodology for estimating the size of the
non-standard motor finance market
- Figure 35: Methodology used to calculate the number of non-standard
households in the UK
- Figure 36: The self-employed population account for almost 43 per cent
of all non-standard households with access to a car, 2005
- Figure 37: Car sales to non-standard individuals relative to the
market as a whole recovered somewhat over 2005, 2001-2005e
- Figure 38: The value of point of sale motor finance extended to
non-standard buyers has fallen considerably over the last five years,
2001-2005
- Figure 39: The non-standard motor finance market has failed to recover
from the slump of 1999-2000, 1999-2005
- Figure 40: Motor finance providers differentiate themselves according
to distance from point of sale and exposure to credit risk, 2006
- Figure 41: Provident's new yesinsurance.co.uk website
- Figure 42: Qualitative assumptions behind Datamonitor's neutral
forecasting scenario
- Figure 43: According to Datamonitor's assumptions, the non-standard
motor finance market will grow on average by 4.3 per cent each year under
this scenario, 2005-2010f
- Figure 44: Qualitative assumptions behind Datamonitor's optimistic
forecasting scenario
- Figure 45: According to this scenario, the non-standard motor finance
market will record average growth of 2.8 per cent per year but perform
worse than the mainstream motor finance market, 2005-2010f
- Figure 46: Qualitative assumptions behind Datamonitor's pessimistic
scenario
- Figure 47: Under the pessimistic scenario, the non-standard motor
finance market is forecasted to account for an increasingly bigger slice
of the total market, 2005-2010f
- Figure 48: The non-standard unsecured personal loans market is more
evenly distributed among the different sub-groups of the non-standard
population than that witnessed in other non-standard lending markets, 2005
- Figure 49: The non-standard sector now accounts for 27.2 per cent of
the total UK unsecured personal loan market, 2001-2005
- Figure 50: On the whole, both gross advances and balances outstanding
have stagnated in the home collected credit market in recent years, though
2005 saw a small lift, 2001-2005
- Figure 51: The non-standard personal loan market has far outpaced the
home collected credit market in terms of balances outstanding growth,
2001-2005
- Figure 52: While the market share of the 'big four' has slipped, they
still account for over 80 per cent of the total market, 2005e
- Figure 53: Together, the big four have lost market share over the past
five years to providers populating the rest of the market, 2001 & 2005
- Figure 54: The two biggest home collected credit providers struggled
during the past couple of years, particularly Cattles, 2001-2005
- Figure 55: Compared to other lending markets, the home collected
market failed to record any growth at all over the last five years,
2001-2005
- Figure 56: Provident's international home collected credit division
and Vanquis Bank have recorded the biggest increases in balances
outstanding, 2002-2005
- Figure 57: Cattles is reducing its home collected credit balances
while expanding in other credit markets, 2001-2005
- Figure 58: There has been a notable shift in Cattles' customer credit
receivables away from home collected credit to direct repayment, 2002-2005
- Figure 59: The average advance and the number of Cattles' home
collected credit customers has been decreasing steadily in recent years,
2003-2005
- Figure 60: On the whole, the proportion for which home collection
accounts for London Scottish's total customer receivables has decreased,
2001-2005
- Figure 61: Some of the current legislative requirements affecting the
home collected credit market, 2006
- Figure 62: Qualitative assumptions behind Datamonitor's neutral
forecasting scenario, 2001-2010f
- Figure 63: Under Datamonitor's neutral scenario, the home collected
credit market is forecasted to grow by an average of 1.1 per cent each
year to 2010, 2005-2010f
- Figure 64: Qualitative assumptions behind Datamonitor's optimistic
forecasting scenario, 2001-2010f
- Figure 65: According to Datamonitor's optimistic scenario, the home
collected credit market is forecasted to decline by 3.0 per cent each year
to 2010, 2005-2010f
- Figure 66: Qualitative assumptions behind Datamonitor's pessimistic
forecasting scenario, 2001-2010f
- Figure 67: According to Datamonitor's pessimistic scenario, the home
collected credit market is forecasted to grow on average by 3.3 per cent
each year to 2010, 2005-2010f
- Figure 68: Heavy competition in the UK credit card market has driven
down standard and introductory APRs, Jan 1998-Feb 2006
- Figure 69: The non-standard credit card market remains far less
developed than the mainstream market, 2004e-2005e
- Figure 70: There is now slightly more than one credit card in issue
per non-standard individual, 2004e-2005e
- Figure 71: The self-employed population accounts for over half of the
credit cards in issue to the non-standard population, 2005e
- Figure 72: The unemployed have the lowest level of cardholding per
head, while those in full time employment enjoy the highest, 2005e
- Figure 73: The total non-standard credit card market was worth £11.9
billion in 2004e, 2003e-2005e
- Figure 74: Four of the top seven largest issuers in the UK market are
currently active in the non-standard market, 2006
- Figure 75: Mainstream issuers entering the non-standard market have
employed one of two branding strategies
- Figure 76: The non-standard credit card market experienced growth in
2005, but not as much as the previous year, 2003e-2005e
- Figure 77: Debt write-offs have particularly affected the credit card
market, 1996-2005
- Figure 78: Datamonitor forecasts the non-standard credit card market
to continue to grow over time, with transaction values reaching £16.7
billion in 2009f, 2004e-2009f
- Figure 79: Datamonitor's core consulting capabilities
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