Retailing in the Baltic States 2008

SUMMARY

Overview

Introduction

Verdict Research: In recent years the Baltic States have enjoyed some of the highest GDP growth rates in the EU. Retail expenditure was boosted by real wage growth and access to easy credit. This has now changed and the post credit crunch era will be tough. Many retailers will need to adapt their strategies to serve cash strapped consumers.

Scope

• This brief provides accurate insights into key trends, future developments and discusses the strategies of the main operators in the market.
• Proprietary data on market value and growth. 2002-2007 data for five different retail sectors and overall value data for the Baltic States.
• Detailed sector analysis for grocery, DIY, electricals, furniture, and clothing is provided.
• Market shares for leading retailers in grocery, evaluation of non food players and insightful analysis into their operating strategies.

Report Highlights

Despite their small market sizes, the Baltic States have some of the highest levels of retail spend per capita in the CEE region. Some retailers have established a strong foothold in the Baltic States and reaped the benefits over the last five years of rising consumer expenditure, which has been boosted by easy credit and rising local incomes.

However the boom years are now over, as tightening lending criteria and a housing market slump put a dent in consumer confidence. While the home-related retail sectors will feel the brunt of the slowdown in private consumption, a number of international players most notably in the clothing sector see further growth potential in the region.

As retail expenditure declines, discounters will benefit from consumers tightening their belts and trading down to cheaper products. While the Baltic States are in the midst of a slowdown, it seems unlikely to be too prolonged and could ultimately prove to be a marked adjustment to more sustainable levels of economic and private consumption growth.

Reasons to Purchase

• Understand strategic issues in the market, retailers' responses and our recommendations on how retailers must cope with the changing market.
• Learn about major foreign and domestic players in the retail market of each of the Baltic States.
• Discover how the market and retailers' future initiatives will develop. Find growth opportunities in specific sectors and identify the key threats.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

• CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
  • Key Findings
  • Main Conclusions
• CHAPTER 2 CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPEAN MARKET - ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
  • Key Findings
  • Key Messages
  • GDP
  • GDP Forecast
  • Consumer Expenditure
  • Inflation
  • Interest Rates
  • Employment
• CHAPTER 3 CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPEAN MARKET - DEMOGRAPHIC OVERVIEW
  • Key Findings
  • Key Messages
  • EU Population Profile
  • EU Population Trend
  • CEE Forecasts
  • CEE Forecasts
  • Urban Population
• CHAPTER 4 CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPEAN MARKET - RETAIL SPENDING
  • Key Findings
  • Expenditure
  • Growth
  • Per Capita
  • Retail Share
• CHAPTER 5 RETAILING IN THE BALTIC STATES
  • Overview
  • Food & Grocery
    • Maxima
    • Rimi Baltic
    • Palink/IKI
    • Other players
  • Non-food
    • Clothing
    • DIY
    • Electricals
    • Furniture
  • Outlook for Retailing in the Baltic States
• CHAPTER 6 GLOSSARY
  • Definitions
  • Abbreviations
• List of Tables
  • Table 1: CEE retail expenditure 2002-2007
  • Table 2: CEE retail expenditure growth 2002-2007
  • Table 3: The Baltic States retail expenditure 2002-2007e
  • Table 4: The Baltic States grocery expenditure 2002-2007e
  • Table 5: The Baltic States food & grocery market share 2007e
  • Table 6: Estonia food & grocery market share 2007e
  • Table 7: Latvia food & grocery market share 2007e
  • Table 8: Lithuania food & grocery market share 2007e
  • Table 9: The Baltic States clothing expenditure 2002-2007e
  • Table 10: The Baltic States DIY expenditure 2002-2007e
  • Table 11: The Baltic States electricals expenditure 2002-2007e
  • Table 12: The Baltic States furniture expenditure 2002-2007e
• List of Figures
  • Figure 1: CEE GDPs 2007
  • Figure 2: CEE & selected EU GDPs per capita 2007
  • Figure 3: CEE GDP growth rates 2007 on 2002
  • Figure 4: GDP growth forecast of CEE countries 2008 & 2009e
  • Figure 5: Consumer expenditure of CEE countries 2007
  • Figure 6: Harmonised index of consumer prices - growth in CEE countries 2006 & 2007
  • Figure 7: Central bank interest rates, official lending rates average 2007
  • Figure 8: Total unemployment rates of CEE countries 2002 & 2007
  • Figure 9: EU 27 population totals (000s) by country 2007
  • Figure 10: Five-year trend in EU25 population growth 2000-2020e
  • Figure 11: Forecast population growth for CEE countries - 2033 & 2058 on 2008
  • Figure 12: % urban population in CEE countries 2007
  • Figure 13: New member states retail spend and change % 2002-2007
  • Figure 14: Five-year growth in CEE retail spend by country 2007 on 2002
  • Figure 15: CEE per capita retail spend 2002-2007
  • Figure 16: CEE per capita retail spend by country 2007
  • Figure 17: CEE retail spend as % of total consumer expenditure 2002 & 2007
  • Figure 18: Leading grocers in the Baltic States store numbers as at June 2008
  • Figure 19: Maxima, Parnu, Estonia 2008
  • Figure 20: Rimi, Riga, Latvia 2008
  • Figure 21: IKI, Vilnius, Lithuania 2008
  • Figure 22: Selver, Tallinn, Estonia 2008
  • Figure 23: Norfa, Lithuania 2008
  • Figure 24: Aprangos Galerija, Lithuania 2008
  • Figure 25: Stockmann, Tallinn, Estonia 2008
  • Figure 26: Tallinna Kaubamaja, Tallinn, Estonia 2008
  • Figure 27: Senukai, Vilnius, Lithuania 2008
  • Figure 28: BMS Megapolis, Vilnius, Lithuania 2008
  • Figure 29: Elektromarkt, Panevežys, Lithuania 2008
  • Figure 30: RD Electronics, Latvia 2008
  • Figure 31: Baldu Rojus, Lithuania 2008
  • Figure 32: Spice furniture & interior design centre, Latvia 2008