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SUMMARY
Introduction
The commercial potential of products in development is vitally import to the
pharmaceutical industry, which is now beset with productivity concerns,
looming patent expiries, and declining growth rates. Many methods are used to
produce sales forecasts, but a key element in these projections concerns the
product's staying power or longevity. In this report, we provide a logical
analysis based on 12 years of data (1994 to 2006) to support a longer average
product longevity than the norm, which is widely used in industry sales
forecasts today. We also discuss a much-needed positive indicator for the
pharmaceutical industry relating to the number of new products reaching the
market.
Get the Answers You Need to Shape Your Strategy
- A major issue in pharmaceutical development is the potential commercial
value of a new product. What do successful, innovative products have in
common? What are the trends in product quality since the 1990s? How does the
quality and commercial potential of new products compare with products
launched earlier?
- A considerable increase in product quality has been occurring since the
mid 1990s, whether mediated by longevity or not. What factors are leading
to an increase in the commercial value of new products and an increase in
their market staying power? What factors are contributing to these positive
trends? Are these trends likely to continue?
- Going forward, powerful forces will continue to affect product quality,
both positively and negatively, in the next decade. Which of these forces
are of greatest concern? Will the combination of these forces exert a positive
or negative infl uence overall? How long can we expect current trends to
continue?
Scope
- Product quality and potential commercial value: assessment of
quality over time, including 12 years of data from annual cohorts of global
best-selling drugs; burgeoning blockbusters; global versus local products; new
active substances.
- Product longevity: methodology to calculate product longevity;
trends in product staying power; 97 products ranked in the top 50 global
best-selling products for 1998, 2001, 2002, or 2006.
- A dynamic market: products entering and exiting the global
best-selling markets; sales thresholds; factors infl uencing the market.
- Outlook: patent expiries and product attrition rates; the role of
biologics; pricing trends; generics erosion; new product promotion.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
- Executive Summary
- Strategic Considerations
- Stakeholder Implications
- Commercial Potential and Staying Power
- Historical Analyses
- A Conundrum-Reconciling Respectable Industry Growth Rates with Poor New
Product Productivity
- Promotional Expenditure
- Range Extension
- Product Quality: Potential Commercial Value
- Assessment of Quality, 1990-2000
- New Product Quality, 2005 and 2007
- New Active Substances Launched in 2005 and 2007
- Number of New Products with Commercial Potential
- Burgeoning Blockbusters
- Longevity: Trends in Product Staying Power
- The Top 50 Best-Selling Global Products of 2006
- Trends in Product Longevity, 1994-2006
- A More Dynamic Market
- Products Exiting the Best-Selling Global Product Rankings
- Products Entering the Best-Selling Global Product Rankings
- Evidence of a More Dynamic Market, 1994-2006
- Are the Top 50 Best-Selling Drugs Representative of Product Longevity in
General?
- Three Factors That Contribute to Increasing Product Quality
- Ability to Capitalize on Fewer Products
- Biologics' Effect on Average Longevity of Products
- Pricing
- Future Trends Impacting Product Quality
- Patent Expiry Trends
- Factors Relating to Generics
- Local Products and Me-Too Products
- Multiple Indication Trends
- Contribution of Biologics
- Trends in Intellectual Property Periods
- Product Attrition Rates
- Pricing of New Generations of Products
- New Product Promotion
- A Positive Outlook
Tables
- 1. New Active Substances Launched, 2007
- 2. Longevity of the Top 50 Best-Selling Global Products, 2006
- 3. Products That Exited From the Top 50 Best-Selling Product Cohort After
2005
- 4. Products That Exited From the Top 50 Best-Selling Product Cohort After
1994
- 5. Products That Entered the Top 50 Best-Selling Product Cohort of 1994
- 6. Products That Entered the Top 50 Best-Selling Product Cohort of 2006
- 7. Top 200 Best-Selling Cohort of 2005: Longevity of the Six Smallest
Products with Sales That Peaked in 2005
- 8. Factors Affecting the Future Commercial Potential of Products
- Appendix: Ninety-Seven Products Ranked in the Top 50 Global Best-Selling
Products in 1998, 2001, 2002, or 2006
Figures
- 1. Global First Launches of New Products, 1990-2007
- 2. Global Growth Rate of the Pharmaceutical Industry, 1990-2007
- 3. Relating Global Reach to Commercial Potential: Trends in the Launch of
Global and Local New Active Substances, 1990-2007
- 4. Growth in the Number of Global Blockbusters, 1986-2006
- 5. Longevities of the Top 50 Best-Selling Products, 1994 and 2006
- 6. Trend in Average Product Longevity, 1994-2006
- 7. Annual Sales Threshold for Inclusion in the Top 50 Best-Selling Global
Product Cohort, 1994-2006
Sidebar
- The Methodology Used to Calculate a Product's Longevity
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