Wind Power Development Strategies in Europe, 2007-2015

SUMMARY

Wind power in Europe will continue to see steady growth over the next five years and remain an anchor for the industry amidst rapid, but more volatile, global wind power expansion. With its many individual wind power markets operating at different levels of market maturity, Europe presents a challenging and evolving competitive environment.

Wind Power Development Strategies in Europe 2007-2015 is the most in-depth market study available on Europe's wind power development market. EER's new study analyzes the strategies of key players competing in these booming, yet volatile wind markets. This is the third annual study to date by EER on Europe's wind markets, and is widely considered the most in-depth and authoritative market study available on European wind market development.

Trends covered in EER's market study include:

• Emergence of new growth markets is shifting the strategy focus of top European development players, looking East and offshore.
• Renewable policy shifts are shaping development environments throughout Europe, with incentive revisions impacting the wind project business model.
• Utility strategies are evolving towards greater pan-European competition as mega utilities comply with renewables obligations and others look to build competitive advantage.
• Expanding IPPs are devising acquisition strategies and moving upstream on the value chain to capture early phase opportunities.
• Developers are moving to new markets with a new set of local players while consolidating in traditional leading countries Germany and Spain.
• M&A deals are climbing into the billions for top wind portfolios, and competition is rife for teams, assets and pipelines.
• Foreign entrants becoming more active are on the prowl for acquisitions to gain a foothold in remaining European growth markets.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Section 1. Executive Summary

• 1.1 Market Moves to New Growth, Scaling Markets
• 1.2 European Wind Growth Continues to Diversify Across Regions
• 1.3 Steady Consolidation of European Wind Power Market
• 1.4 Wind Players Adapt Strategies to Changing Market Environments
• 1.5 Outlook: Sustained Growth Amidst Market Structure Changes

Section 2. European Wind Power Market Environment

• 2.1 Global Policy Trends
  • The Kyoto Protocol and National Allocation Plans
  • The EU Commits to Longer Term RES Targets in Berlin Summit
  • Wind Key in Strategy to Achieve Kyoto Protocol Objectives
• 2.2 European Wind Power Market Environment Ranking
  • 2.2.1 Ranking Criteria Definition
  • 2.2.2 Ranking Results
    • Tier 1: Driving European Wind Growth, 7 GW a year
    • Tier 2: Scaling Markets Provide Longer Term Growth Prospects
    • Tier 3: Slowly Stepping Up to Unlock Wind Potential
    • Tier 4: Nascent Markets Challenged to Tap Wind Opportunities

Section 3. European Wind Power Market Forecasts

• 3.1 Wind Power Capacity Market Forecasts
  • 3.1.1 Wind Power Capacity Forecasts by Country-Consolidating Markets
  • 3.1.2 Wind Power Capacity Forecasts by Country-Scaling Markets
  • 3.1.3 Wind Power Capacity Forecasts by Country-Growth Markets
• 3.2 Wind Power Capacity Forecast Scenarios Europe
  • 3.2.1 Base Case Scenario
  • 3.2.2 High-Growth Scenario
  • 3.2.3 Low-Growth Scenario
• 3.3 Trends and Forecasts in Wind Plant Size
• 3.4 European Offshore Wind Power, 2007-2015
• 3.5 Wind Power Penetration Regional Forecasts 2006-2015

Section 4. European Wind Power Development Opportunities

• 4.1 European Wind Power Market Maturity
• 4.2 Greenfield Development Opportunities
  • 4.2.1 Norway
  • 4.2.2 Turkey
  • 4.2.3 Poland
  • 4.2.4 Croatia
  • 4.2.5 Hungary
  • 4.2.6 Estonia
  • 4.2.7 Czech Republic
  • 4.2.8 Bulgaria
  • 4.2.9 Romania
  • 4.2.10 Finland
  • 4.2.11 Other Greenfield Opportunities
• 4.3 Scaling Market Opportunities
  • 4.3.1 UK
  • 4.3.2 France
  • 4.3.3 Italy
  • 4.3.4 Portugal
  • 4.3.5 Sweden
  • 4.3.6 Greece
• 4.4 Consolidation Opportunities
• 4.5 European Offshore Wind Power Nears Take-Off
  • 4.5.1 UK Offshore
  • 4.5.2 Germany
  • 4.5.3 Denmark
  • 4.5.4 Sweden
  • 4.5.5 Other Offshore Markets

Section 5. European Wind Power Development Strategies

• 5.1 Wind Power Development Activity and Project Pipeline
  • 5.1.1 European Wind Plant Ownership Trends
  • 5.1.2 European Wind Plant Ownership Rankings
    • Southern European Portfolios Lead Ranking
    • Northern Europeans Waiting for Offshore Take Off Select IPPs Gaining Scale
  • 5.1.3 European Wind Development Experience Rankings
    • Utility, IPP Vertical Integration Reduces Develop-and-Sell Opportunity
  • 5.1.4 European Wind Pipeline Analysis
• 5.2 Utility Generation Strategies and Wind
  • 5.2.1 Utility Strategy Comparison
    • Mega Mergers Condition Wind Strategies Iberdrola, DONG Lead Green Utilities in Scale, Offshore
    • Mega Utilities Increasingly Receptive to Wind
    • Regional Utilities Adopting Bolder Pan-Regional Wind Expansion Strategies
    • Domestic Players Continue to Seek Local Opportunities
  • 5.2.2 Utility Wind Portfolios and Pipelines by Market Type
    • Green Utilities Bulk up in Scaling Markets, Drive into Growth Regions
    • Adopter Utilities Capturing Scaling Market Growth
    • Consolidating Markets Offer Mixed Utility Wind Opportunities
• 5.3 Independent Wind Players by Type
  • 5.3.1 Wind IPP and Developer Strategy Comparison
  • 5.3.2 IPP Wind Portfolios and Pipelines
    • Southern IPPs Aim to Catch Wave of Consolidation in Spain, While Germany Offers an IPP Entry Point
    • Returns-Focused IPPs Concentrate on Lower Risk, Scaling Markets
• 5.4 Developers Strategy Comparison
  • 5.4.1 Leading Developer Portfolios and Pipelines
  • 5.4.2 Developers Adjust Strategies to Changing Environment
    • Growth Markets Encourage Developer Land Grab
    • Scaling Market Developers Supply European Leaders
    • Developers Maximize Portfolio Value in Consolidating Markets
• 5.5 Offshore Wind Development Activity
  • Greenfield Developers Initiate Projects
  • Utilities Positioned to Own Offshore Market
  • Select Large-Scale IPPs Set for Offshore Participation

Section 6. Wind Power Utility, IPP, and Developer Strategy Profiles

• 6.1 Utility Profiles
  • 6.1.1 Centrica
  • 6.1.2 DONG Energy Renewables
  • 6.1.3 EDF Energies Nouvelles
  • 6.1.4 Edison
  • 6.1.5 EDP
  • 6.1.6 Electrabel
  • 6.1.7 Endesa
  • 6.1.8 Enel
  • 6.1.9 E.ON
  • 6.1.10 Essent
  • 6.1.11 Iberdrola/Scottish Power
  • 6.1.12 ScottishPower
  • 6.1.13 Nuon
  • 6.1.14 RWE
  • 6.1.15 Scottish and Southern Energy
  • 6.1.16 Statkraft
  • 6.1.17 Vattenfall
• 6.2 IPP Strategy Profiles
  • 6.2.1 Acciona Energia
  • 6.2.2 Aitricity
  • 6.2.3 Babcock & Brown Wind Partners
  • 6.2.4 Enerfin-Enervento, Grupo Elecnor
  • 6.2.5 Eurus Energy
  • 6.2.6 Falck Renewables
  • 6.2.7 Gas Natural
  • 6.2.8 Molinos del Ebro
  • 6.2.9 Renewable Energy Systems
  • 6.2.10 Shell WindEnergy
  • 6.2.11 Trinergy
• 6.3 New IPP Entrants
  • 6.3.1 Allianz
  • 6.3.2 Allco
  • 6.3.3 AES
  • 6.3.4 International Power
  • 6.3.5 ERG Group
• 6.4 Developers
  • 6.4.1 AMEC
  • 6.4.2 EnergieKontor
  • 6.4.3 Espace Eolien Developpement
  • 6.4.4 Gamesa Energia
  • 6.4.5 Germania Windpark
  • 6.4.6 Juwi
  • 6.4.7 Ostwind
  • 6.4.8 Prokon Nord/Enertag
  • 6.4.9 Wind Prospect
  • 6.4.10 WindStrom
  • 6.4.11 WKN
  • 6.4.12 WPD

LIST OF EXHIBITS

Section 1. Executive Summary

• 1-1: European Onshore Wind Power Market Maturity Curve
• 1-2: Wind Power Development Activity Shifts
• 1-3: Base Case Annual Wind Power Capacity Growth By Country, 2006-2015
• 1-4: European Offshore vs. Onshore Wind Capacity
• 1-5: High-Growth Scenario Annual Wind Power Capacity Growth, 2006-2015
• 1-6: Low-Growth Scenario Annual Wind Power Capacity Growth, 2006-2015
• 1-7: Europe Wind Farm Ownership Evolution
• 1-8: Top 20 European Wind Players, MW Owned
• 1-9: Total Pipeline, 2007-2010
• 1-10: Wind Opportunities for Wind Players by Market Maturity Stage
• 1-11: Utility Wind Strategy Positioning
• 1-12: Top IPP Strategy Positioning
• 1-13: Developer Strategies by Market Type

Section 2. European Wind Power Market Environment

• 2-1: Wind Energy and RES Targets
• 2-2: Wind Power Market Evaluation Components
• 2-3: European Market Attractiveness: Ranking Overview

Section 3. European Wind Power Market Forecasts

• 3-1: Wind Power Capacity in Service, 2006-2015
• 3-2: European Wind Power Markets Summary, Annual Installations, (MW)
• 3-3: Onshore and Offshore Wind Power Capacity in Service, 2006-2015 (MW)
• 3-4: Wind Power Market Maturity in European Countries
• 3-5: Wind Power Capacity Net Additions Market Share by Country, 2006-2015
• 3-6: Wind Power Capacity Net Additions by Country, 2006-2015 (MW)
• 3-7: Consolidating Markets Net Additions by Country, 2006-2015
• 3-8: Wind Power Capacity Total by Country, 2006-2015 (MW)
• 3-9: Scaling Markets Net Additions by Country, 2005-2015
• 3-10: Wind Power Capacity Total by Country, 2005-2010 (MW)
• 3-11: Growth Markets Net Additions by Country, 2006-2015
• 3-12: Wind Power Capacity Total by Country, 2005-2015 (MW)
• 3-13: Europe MW Added Growth Scenario Comparison, 2007-2015
• 3-14: Europe Total Base Case Scenario Forecasts, 2007-2015 (MW)
• 3-15: Europe Total High-Growth Scenario Forecasts, 2007-2015 (MW)
• 3-16: Europe Total Low-Growth Scenario Forecasts, 2007-2015 (MW)
• 3-17: Net European Wind Projects by Size, 2006
• 3-18: European Wind Projects by Size, 2001-2006
• 3-19: European Wind Projects by Size, 2006-2015
• 3-20: European Wind Power Projects by Size, 2006-2015 (MW)
• 3-21: European Offshore versus Onshore Capacity, 2005-2015
• 3-22: European Offshore Wind Capacity Added, 2005-2015
• 3-23: European Wind Power as Share of Total Generation Installed Base, 2005-2015
• 3-24: European Wind Power Proportion of Total Generation Installed Base, 2005-2015

Section 4. European Wind Power Development Opportunities

• 4-1: Wind Power Onshore Market Maturity
• 4-2: Development Activity Market Penetration
• 4-3: Norway Operational Project List
• 4-4: Norway Select Project Pipeline
• 4-5: Turkey Operational Project List
• 4-6: Turkey Select Project Pipeline
• 4-7: Poland Operational Project List
• 4-8: Poland Select Project Pipeline
• 4-9: Croatia Operational Project List
• 4-10: Croatia Select Project Pipeline
• 4-11: Hungary Operational Project List
• 4-12: Hungary Select Project Pipeline
• 4-13: Estonia Operational Project List
• 4-14: Estonia Select Project Pipeline
• 4-15: Czech Republic Operational Project List
• 4-16: Czech Republic Select Project Pipeline
• 4-17: Bulgaria Operational Project List
• 4-18: Bulgaria Select Project Pipeline
• 4-19: Romania Operational Project List
• 4-20: Romania Select Project Pipeline
• 4-21: Finland Operational Project List
• 4-22: Finland Select Project Pipeline
• 4-23: Select Operational Project List
• 4-24: Select Project Pipeline List
• 4-25: UK Select Project Pipeline
• 4-26: France Select Project Pipeline
• 4-27: Italy Select Project Pipeline
• 4-28: Portugal Select Project Pipeline
• 4-29: Sweden Select Project Pipeline
• 4-30: Greece Select Project Pipeline
• 4-31: Consolidating Activity in Europe's Mature Markets
• 4-32: Key Recent Wind Deals in Spain and Germany
• 4-33: Offshore Market Growth and Maturity
• 4-34: UK Offshore Operational Project List
• 4-35: UK Offshore Project Pipeline
• 4-36: Germany Offshore Operational Project List
• 4-37: Germany Offshore Project Pipeline
• 4-38: Denmark Offshore Operational Project List
• 4-39: Denmark Offshore Project Pipeline
• 4-40: Sweden Offshore Operational Project List
• 4-41: Sweden Offshore Project Pipeline
• 4-42: Offshore Operational Project List

Section 5. European Wind Power Development Strategies

• 5-1: Wind Opportunities for Wind Players by Market Maturity Stage
• 5-2: European Ownership Shifts to Utilities, IPPS
• 5-3: European Utility, IPP Market Ownership Split Overview, 2006
• 5-4: Wind Plant Ownership Rankings
• 5-5: Developer Experience Comparison
• 5-6: Total Pipeline, 2007-2010
• 5-7: Utility Strategy Groupings Matrix
• 5-8: Comparison MW Installed Split by Market Type, YE 2006
• 5-9: Comparison Pipeline by Market Type
• 5-10: Wind IPP and Developer Value Chain Positioning
• 5-11: Top Developer Strategy Positioning
• 5-12: Comparison MW Installed Split by Market Type, YE 2006
• 5-13: Comparison Pipeline by Market Type
• 5-14: Comparison Development Experience and Pipeline Split by Market Type, YE 2006
• 5-15: Developer Model Focus by Market Type
• 5-16: Local Developer Pipelines in Key Growth Markets
• 5-17: Key Scaling Market Developer Pipelines
• 5-18: Consolidating Market Activity in 2006
• 5-19: Offshore Pipelines by Type of Player
• 5-20: Utility/IPP Offshore Positions

Section 6. Wind Power Utility, IPP, and Developer Strategy Profiles

• 6-1: Centrica Wind Farms, YE 2006
• 6-2: Centrica Offshore Pipeline
• 6-3: DONG Energy Renewables Installed Base by Wind Turbine Supplier
• 6-4: DONG Energy Renewables Wind Farms, YE 2006
• 6-5: DONG Energy Renewables Pipeline, YE 2006
• 6-6: EDF-EN Installed Base by WT Supplier
• 6-7: EDF-EN Wind Farms, YE 2006
• 6-8: EDF-EN Project Pipeline, YE 2006
• 6-9: Edison Installed Base by Wind Turbine Supplier
• 6-10: Edison Wind Farms, YE 2006
• 6-11: Edison Project Pipeline, YE 2006
• 6-12: EDP Installed Base by Wind Turbine Supplier
• 6-13: EPD Wind Farms, YE 2006
• 6-14: EDP Project Pipeline
• 6-15: Electrabel Installed Base by Wind Turbine Supplier
• 6-16: Electrabel Wind Farms, YE 2006
• 6-17: Electrabel Project Pipeline
• 6-18: Endesa Wind Farms, YE 2006
• 6-19: Endesa Project Pipeline
• 6-20: Vendor Share of ENEL MW Installed
• 6-21: ENEL Wind Farms, YE 2006
• 6-22: ENEL Project Pipeline
• 6-23: Vendor Share of E.ON MW Installed
• 6-24: E.ON Wind Farms, YE 2006
• 6-25: E.ON Project Pipeline
• 6-26: Vendor Share of Essent MW Installed
• 6-27: Essent Wind Farms, YE 2006
• 6-28: Essent Project Pipeline
• 6-29: Iberdrola Wind Farms, YE 2006
• 6-30: Iberdrola Project Pipelines
• 6-31: ScottishPower Turbine Market Share
• 6-32: ScottishPower Wind Farms, YE 2006
• 6-33: ScoittshPower Project Pipeline
• 6-34: Nuon Wind Farms YE 2006
• 6-35: Nuon Project Pipeline
• 6-36: RWE Turbine Market Share
• 6-37: RWE Wind Farms, YE 2006
• 6-38: RWE Project Pipeline
• 6-39: Scottish and Southern Turbine Market Share
• 6-40: Scottish and Southern Energy Wind Farms, YE 2006
• 6-41: Scottish and Southern Project Pipeline
• 6-42: Statkraft Wind Farms, YE 2006
• 6-43: Supplier Share of Vattenfall Installed Base
• 6-44: Vattenfall Wind Farms, YE 2006
• 6-45: Vattenfall Project Pipeline
• 6-46: Acciona Energia European Footprint
• 6-47: Acciona Energia Installed Base by Wind Turbine Supplier
• 6-48: Acciona Energia Wind Farm Development Experience
• 6-49: Acciona Energia Pipeline
• 6-50: Airtricity Wind Turbine Vendors Market Share
• 6-51: Airtricity Wind Farm Development
• 6-52: Airtricity Pipeline
• 6-53: Babcock & Brown/BBWP Wind Turbine Vendors Market Share
• 6-54: Babcock & Brown Wind Farm Portfolio
• 6-55: Babcock & Brown Pipeline
• 6-56: Enerfin Wind Farm Development Experience
• 6-57: Enerfin Pipeline
• 6-58: Eurus Turbine Market Share
• 6-59: Eurus Energy Europe Wind Farm Development
• 6-60: Eurus Pipeline
• 6-61: Falck Renewables Wind Farm Development
• 6-62: Falck Renewables Pipeline
• 6-63: Gas Natural (DERSA) Installed Base by Vendor
• 6-64: Gas Natural Wind Farm Development
• 6-65: Gas Natural Pipeline
• 6-66: Molinos del Ebro Installed Base by Vendor
• 6-67: Molinos del Ebro wind Farm Development
• 6-68: RES Europe Wind Farm Development
• 6-69: RES Europe Pipeline
• 6-70: Shell WindEnergy Europe Wind Farm
• 6-71: Shell WindEnergy Pipeline
• 6-72: Trinergy Wind Farms
• 6-73: Trinergy Pipeline
• 6-74: New Entrant Acquisitions Overview
• 6-75: AMEC Wind Energy Development Experience
• 6-76: AMEC Wind Energy Pipeline
• 6-77: EnergieKontor Installed Base by Vendor
• 6-78: EnergieKontor Wind Farm Development Experience
• 6-79: EnergieKontor Pipeline
• 6-80: EED Wind Turbine Vendors Market Share
• 6-81: EED Wind Farm Development Experience
• 6-82: EED Pipeline
• 6-83: Gamesa Energia Installed Base by Turbine Model
• 6-84: Gamesa Energia Wind Farm Development
• 6-85: Gamesa Energia Pipeline
• 6-86: Germania Windpark Installed Base by Vendor
• 6-87: Germania Windpark Development Experience
• 6-88: Germinia Windpark Pipeline
• 6-89: Juwi Wind Farm Development Experience
• 6-90: Juwi Pipeline
• 6-91: Ostwind Wind Turbine Vendors Market Share
• 6-92: Ostwind Wind Farm Development Experience
• 6-93: Ostwind Pipeline
• 6-94: Prokon Nord Wind Turbine Vendors Market Share
• 6-95: Prokon Nord/Enertag Wind Farm Development Experience
• 6-96: Projkon Nord/Enertrag Pipeline
• 6-97: Wind Prospect Installed Base by Vendor
• 6-98: Wind Prospect Development Experience
• 6-99: Wind Prospect Pipeline
• 6-100: WindStrom Wind Turbine Vendors Market Share
• 6-101: WindStrom Wind Farm Development
• 6-102: Windstrom Pipeline
• 6-103: WKN AG Wind Farm Development Experience
• 6-104: WPD GmbH Wind Turbine Vendors Market Share
• 6-105: WPD GmbH Wind Farm Development Experience
• 6-106: WPD GmbH Pipeline