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SUMMARY
The Economist: article about Vodafone in Japan in the issues of Sept 30th,
2004 is partly based on data, analysis and a figure contained in this report
BusinessWeek: article "How Sharp stays On The Cutting Edge" about the company
SHARP in the issues of October 18th, 2004 is partly based on analysis
contained in this report, and an interview with the author of this report
TABLE OF CONTENTS
- Executive Summary: 3G in Japan
- Building 3G in Japan: two waves of disruptive innovation
- Why disruptive innovation
- First wave, second wave
- Disruptive innovation: the key criteria
- Disruptive innovation: different value proposition, initially
underperform established technologies in main stream markets...
- Disruptive innovation: new features that customers value
- Disruptive innovation: typically cheaper, simpler...
- The case of TD-SCDMA
- Standardization practices in US, EU and Japan
- Overview of Japan Telecommuncations markets as a background for 3G
- How did Japans Telecom industry become one of the worlds most
competitive?
- Japans mobile phone companies (2004)
- Overview of Japans mobile 3G internet systems (2004)
- Japans Telecommunication landscape (graphics with recent transactions
and future trends)
- Spectrum allocation for mobile communications (recent policy trends and
practice of the Japanese government)
- Radio spectrum allocation for mobile communications (graphics for the
800MHz, 1.5GHz, and 2GHz bands for PHS, 2G and 3G)
- Recent transactions and developments
- Overview of Japans mobile 3G internet systems
- NTT dominates in size (Graphics: comparing annual sales of NTT, KDDI,
Vodafone-Japan, Softbank and PoweredCom, data for financial year 2003-2004)
- Competition for Japans mobile phone markets (Graphics: mobile subscriber
numbers for Japans seven mobile systems, data: 1998-2004)
- Market shares in Japans mobile markets (overall market shares of DoCoMo,
Vodafone and KDDI/AU)
- Focus on KDDI/Vodafone competition (subscriber market share data:
1998-2004)
- Three groups coompete for over 70 million wireless internet users in
Japan (subscriber figures for Japans mobile internet systems excluding PHS,
market shares, data: 1998-2004)
- i-Mode subscribers compared to competing wireless internet services
(subscriber figures for Japans mobile internet systems excluding PHS, data:
1999-2004)
- Section summary
- The first wave of 3G service roll-out in Japan (2001-2005)
- Dynamics of the first wave of 3G roll-out in Japan
- Competing network technologies and carriers (Table)
- 3G and 2G cell phone subscriptions in Japan (data: 2002-2005 and
projections to 2007)
- 3G cell phone subscriptions in Japan (data: 2002-2005 and projections to
2008)
- DoCoMo "FOMA Chasm" (graphics, chasm, early adopters, mainstream,
including graphics)
- First wave of 3G introduction (graphics: conversion rates for the three
competing carriers, data: 1998-2004, and projections to 2008, logarithmic
scale)
- First wave of 3G introduction (market shares of the three carriers,
data: 1998-2004, projections to 2007, logarithmic scale)
- First wave of 3G introduction (market shares of the three carriers,
data: 1998-2004, linear scale)
- Analysis of 3G introduction dynamics in Japan
- From 2005: the second wave of 3G development in Japan
- Expected market participants and network technologies (table, including
expected participants, technologies, data rates, starting dates)
- Conclusions for 3Gs second wave
- Recommendations for carriers introducing 3G services - what to learn from
Japans 3G development
- Crucial factors for the success of 3G in Japan
- Overview: coverage, handsets, content and services, fees and business
models
- Some factors we believe are not important for 3G success
- Coverage: discussion
- Dual network service: 2G/3G handover - Europe (GSM/UMTS), KDDI/AU
(CDMA2000), DoCoMo (FOMA)
- Coverage: base stations
- Indoor coverage as a business opportunity: IMCS
- Indoor coverage (Graphics: number of indoor stations for FOMA, data:
2002-2004 with projection to 2006)
- 3G handsets
- Handsets are crucial for success
- 3G handsets, overview
- Evolution of mobile phone displays: 2000-2004
- Mobile internet and camera handsets: trends towards the sweet spot
- 100 grams/100 cubic centimeter handsets are preferred
- Handsets need to have 2-3 weeks standby time, and more than 1 day talk
time
- DoCoMo FOMA P2102V as a demo
- DoCoMos 900i series
- Pricing issues and typical street prices for 3G phones in Japan vs 2G
phones (table of typical street prices, June 2004)
- Camera phones as disruptive innovation for DoCoMos 3G FOMA
- Importance of handset design for 3G success, the KDDI/AU 3G "Designer
Series"
- SANYO W21SA CDMA-WIN phone for KDDI/AU (August 2004)
- KDDI/AU 3G "INFOBAR" (November 2003)
- KDDI/AU 3G "INFOBAR" Key properties functions
- KDDI/AU 3G "INFOBAR - NISHIKIGOI" demo
- "INFOBAR" and the KDDI/AU "Design Project"
- KDDI/AU "Design Project": "talby" by marc newson ltd
- Nokia phones in Japan
- Nokia mobile phone sales in Japan
- NOKIA 7600 3G phones on sale in Japan
- NOKIA 6630 (on display at Wireless-Japan-2004)
- NOKIA 7600 (on display at Wireless-Japan-2004)
- Mobile phone sales in Japan
- Moible phone sales and business models in Japan: Overview
- The carriers competing face-to-face (with photographs from store
locations)
- AU and Vodafone competing side-by-side
- A typical suburban KDDI/AU store (photographs of 3G and 3.5G phones on
display)
- Vodafone Shibuya flagship store (photographs of Vodafone Global Standard
3G phones on display)
- Drivers for mobile phone sales in Japan
- Games as a driver for 3G and 3G handset sales
- Operating systems and software
- Operating systems
- TRON Overview
- The wapro trap
- Symbian
- Browser market: which browser dominates
- Software
- Charges, ARPU and business models for 3G
- ARPU (average revenue per user) for 3G compared to 2G (data for
2000-2004)
- Voice call charges: 2G vs 3G
- Data charges
- Details and impact of flat data rates on 3G
- Average data packet usage on DoCoMos networks (2G vs 3G)
- Data charges for 3G - metered vs flat rates for different carriers
(data: June 2004)
- Data charges for 3G vs 2G (data: June 2004)
- Data charges for 3G for high volumes of 3G data (data: June 2004)
- Data charges in comparison with PHS and Vodafone-Germany (data: June
2004, 0-700Mbyte/month)
- Expected impact of flat rate mobile internet access
- Details and impact of flat data rates on 3G
- Impact of flat mobile internet rates
- Usage statistics
- FOMA subscribers have much higher data usage at lower charges (data:
1999-2004, data and video call usage)
- Video on 3G and remote video control on 3G
- Video on 3G - a killer application?
- Video on 3G has many different applications beyond video telephony
- Video telephony on 3G - strategic pricing
- DoCoMo Airview
- DoCoMo Jailor: pretending to be at home when you are not - protecting
your home
- DoCoMo seeding the 3G video market with applications: remote video
control for machinery
- DoCoMo seeding the 3G video market with applications: remote video
control for robots
- FOMA remote video control of SONY Aibo
- DoCoMo seeding the 3G video market with applications: Visual controller
with demo
- DoCoMo visual FOMA controller for remote monitoring and care
- Music: from Chaku-Melo to Chaku-Uta to Full Songs
- 3G to revolutionize music distribution
- 3G to revolutionize music distribution: trends
- Chaku-Uta music downloads on KDDI/AU (history, data format, Codec,...)
- Chaku-Uta music downloads on KDDI/AU (download statistics for the period
from introduction in December 2002 to July 2004)
- Matsushita/Panasonic concept model for integrated earphones with mobile
phone
- Matsushita/Panasonic concept model for integrated HiFi earphones with
mobile phone
- Music: Chaku-Melo versus Apple-iTunes
- Chaku-Melo versus Apple-iTunes
- Chaku-Melo versus Apple-iTunes: download statistics (Graphics: data from
2002 to 2004)
- Implications and trends
- i-Appli - JAVA applets are a crucial component of i-mode and 3G
- i-appli - JAVA: Basics
- i-appli - JAVA: Typical applications
- i-appli - JAVA: Games
- i-appli - JAVA: JAVA system concept
- i-appli - JAVA: i-appli and JAVA leads to higher data usage (Graphics:
data download statistics for handsets with and without JAVA i-appli, period:
1999-2004)
- i-Mode = marketing success story for the 2G-3G transition of wireless data
services
- i-mode revenue model
- Concept and basics
- i-mode in a nutshell
- The i-mode eco-system
- i-mode concept: General
- i-mode concept: Business Models
- i-mode concept: Current implementation
- The official i-mode menu as a portal for content, services and
transactions
- Evolution from 1999-2003
- Premium sites: a billion dollar market
- Subscription statistics: fraction of subscribers registering for premium
sites (data from 1999-2003)
- Subscription statistics: average number of premium sites per subscriber
(data from 1999-2003)
- Evolving portal presentation: 2G to 3G (data from 2001-2003)
- The i-mode experience 2004 on 3G-FOMA (SH-900i)
- The i-mode experience 2004 on 3G-FOMA: navigating the menu
- The i-mode experience 2004 on 3G-FOMA: The top menu
- The i-mode experience 2004 on 3G-FOMA: The i-menu
- The i-mode experience 2004 on 3G-FOMA: The menu list
- The i-mode experience 2004 on 3G-FOMA: The menu list - main headings
- Demonstrating i-mode progress from 2003-2004 (including introduction of
Macromedia FLASH)
- The i-mode experience 2003 on 3G-FOMA
- The i-mode experience 2003 on 3G-FOMA: navigating the menu
- The i-mode experience 2003 on 3G-FOMA: The top menu
- The i-mode experience 2003 on 3G-FOMA: The i-menu
- The i-mode experience 2003 on 3G-FOMA: The menu list
- The i-mode experience 2003 on 3G-FOMA: The menu list - main headings
- i-mode usage and traffic profiles
- average i-mode data usage (data from 1999-2003)
- Handset novelty and functionality drive i-mode usage (data from
1999-2003)
- i-Mode user profile (usage profile by gender and age group)
- i-Mode web access events by content class (data: 2000-2003, and 2G
versus 3G/FOMA)
- i-Mode Typical page view statistics for selected top sites (data:
2001-2003)
- i-Mode traffic for different activities: send mail, receive mail, view
web page, and total traffic (data: 14 August 2003, 39.3 million subscribers)
- Analysis of i-mode traffic profiles
- Email and messaging: usage statistics (data for 2001-2003, 2G versus
3G/FOMA)
- Email and messaging: pricing and service characteristics (data for
2001-2003, 2G versus 3G/FOMA)
- m-Commerce and m-Transactions
- m-Commerce, m-Content and m-Advertising in Japan to reach US$ 10 Billion
in 2005 (data for 2001-2006)
- Types of m-Commerce
- i-mode premium sites content business (data: 1999-2003)
- Premium content subscription statistics (data: 1999-2003)
- Wallet phones: "Making mobile phones an essential part of daily life"
- Wallet phones overview
- Wallet phone transaction partners at the time of introduction
- Wallet phones concept
- What are Wallet phones?
- What are Wallet phones? - i-mode and FeliCa, the role of JAVA
applications
- What are Wallet phones? Graphics demonstrating the concept
- SO405iC i-mode phone with FeliCa chip (images and screen images of JAVA
application linking with smartcard)
- i-mode-FeliCa P506iC wallet phone screen images, demonstrating Edy
e-cash: main menu page
- i-mode-FeliCa P506iC: Edy ecash JAVA application: checking the cash
balance
- i-mode-FeliCa P506iC: Edy ecash JAVA application: transaction history
- i-mode/FeliCa phones as Edy cash
- i-mode/FeliCa phones as a wireless electronic door key
- i-mode/FeliCa phones as train tickets
- i-mode/FeliCa phones as event tickets and reservations
- i-mode/FeliCa phones as air tickets
- i-mode/FeliCa phones as e-cash, and at game parlors
- Security
- Security, SSL
- FirstPass authentication
- Wallet phones and remote locking
- Finger print recognition systems
- Security trends
- Summary
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