Fiber Optic Attenuator Global Market Forecast

SUMMARY

This 225 page report presents a five-year (2006-2011) global consumption value market forecast of fiber optic component-level attenuators used in communication applications. This study is one of several reports from ElectroniCast Consultants' series of studies covering optical signal processing passive components. The report forecasts the consumption trends, in terms of $, millions, of the following types of component-level optical attenuators:

• Fixed Panel Mount/Bulkhead Attenuators
• Jumper Assembly/In-Line Fixed Attenuators
• Manually-Controlled Variable Optical Attenuators
• Electronically Variable Optical Attenuators (EVOAs)

Typically, either a fixed or variable optical attenuator is generally placed before a receiver to adjust optical power that otherwise might fluctuate over a wide spectrum of the receiver's design, thereby causing errors. Additionally, Variable Optical Attenuators (VOAs) are used for variable gain control applications in optical amplifiers and power equalization in DWDM networks. Electronically controlled variable optical attenuators (EVOAs), in 2006 represented 60 percent of Global consumption value.

Telecommunications Leads in Fiber Optic Attenuator Consumption The global consumption value of fiber optic attenuators is forecasted to increase at an average annual growth rate of 11.25 percent over the 2006-2011 forecast period. The global Total Available Market (TAM) and value of component-level fiber optic attenuators used in selected optical communication applications, including:

• Telecommunications
• Private Networks
• CATV
• Military/Aerospace
• Specialty

METHODOLOGY

In analyzing and forecasting a product or service market, Electronicast Consultants combines several techniques:

Product consumption and production history is determined by:

• Interviews of the leading product or service users and producers ("dual track" primary research)
• Secondary research (a review of published information, including industry, data, technical papers, financial reports)

This research provides a consensus of the past history of the product or service: value, price trends, application trends, leading producers and their market shares.

This study is based on analysis of information obtained continually for over 15-years, but mainly from the last 24 months. During this period, ElectroniCast analysts performed a large number of interviews, both by telephone and in-person, with authoritative and representative individuals in the fiber optics, telecommunications, datacom, cable TV and other communication industries, from the standpoint of both suppliers and users of fiber optics.

The interviews were conducted principally with:

• Engineers, marketing personnel and management at manufacturers of fiber optic attenuators, optical fiber amplifiers, DWDM, Optical Add/Drops, isolators, couplers and other related passive and active optical components.
• Engineers, marketing, purchasing personnel and market planners at major users of passive optical components, such as telecommunication transmission, switching, distribution and apparatus equipment, regional and interexchange telephone companies, alternative local carriers, data communications equipment companies, cable TV system suppliers, military/aerospace OEMs, utilities and a number of other end users of fiber optic components and technology.

The interviews covered issues of technology, pricing, contract size, reliability, documentation, installation/maintenance crafts, standards, supplier competition and other topics.

The long-range forecast is based upon the following sequence:

• 1. The advancement of technology of the product, competing products and the end applications is forecasted based on interviews of researchers and other experts in the product field.
• 2. The economic significance of the advanced technology products is analyzed from the following perspectives:
  • Real value to user, determined by user interviews
  • Displacement of competing products
  • Creation of new markets
• 3. The production of the end-use equipments or systems is forecasted.
• 4. Production costs, and thus minimum pricing, of the product at various quantity levels are analyzed.
• 5. The demand forecast is derived by bottom-up, application-by-application analysis.

The analysis of cost-effectiveness and understanding of the user perception of risk of the product provide insight into the rate of penetration of the product into the various end applications at its minimum profitable price. Input/output analysis applies the penetration forecasts to the end-application production forecasts to provide a cross-check of the product consumption forecast. Forecasted imports and exports, inventory change, R&D use, and other non-production markets to derive the total production forecast then adjust this consumption forecast. Finally, by user interviews, the production forecasts are segmented into captive (in-house) production versus available (merchant) market.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Executive Summary

• 1.1 Fiber Optic Attenuators Overview
• 1.2 Optical Fiber Amplifier & DWDM Components Overview
• 1.3 Broadband and FTTP Overview
• 1.4 Fiber Optics Industry Overview
  • 1.4.1 Boom, Bust and the Recovery
  • 1.4.2 Fiber Optics Industry: Decade-to-Decade

2. Fiber Optic Attenuator Market Forecast

• 2.1 Fiber Optic Attenuators Market by Type
• 2.2 Attenuator Technology Review
• 2.3 Fiber Optic Attenuators By End-User (Application)

3. High Speed Optical Communication Trends

• 3.1 Overview
• 3.2 Fiber Network Technology Trends
• 3.3 Components
  • 3.3.1 Overview
  • 3.3.2 Transmitters & Receivers
  • 3.3.3 Optical Amplifiers
  • 3.3.4 Dispersion Compensators
  • 3.3.5 Fiber Cable
• 3.4 Devices & Parts
  • 3.4.1 Overview
  • 3.4.2 Emitters & Detectors
  • 3.4.3 VCSEL & Transceiver Technology Review
  • 3.4.4 Optoelectronic ASICs
  • 3.4.5 Modulators
  • 3.4.6 Packages
  • 3.4.7 OEICs
• 3.5 Europe
• 3.6 Rest of World

4. Competitive Analysis & Profiles

• 4.1 Selected List of Competitors
• 4.2 Market Share Estimate (2006): Fiber Optic Attenuators

5. Methodology

• 5.1 Research and Analysis Methodology
• 5.2 Assumptions of Fiber Optic Component Global Market Forecast

6. Definitions

• 6.1 Acronyms, Abbreviations, and General Terms
• 6.2 Data Base Category Definitions

7. Market Forecast Data Base

• 7.1 Overview
• 7.2 Tutorial