Wireless Worldwide: A G-7 Comparison

SUMMARY

The Wireless Worldwide report offers detailed insights and analysis into the rapidly growing market for mobile voice and data services around the world, with a special focus on the G-7 group of nations: the United States, Canada, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and the United Kingdom. The G-7 provides a useful group to compare wireless developments because of the many mobile technologies they use, the differences in their market structures and stages of development and the variety of mobile devices and services they offer. Understanding the strengths and weaknesses in each of these markets will help you make better decisions in your own business environment. Among the topics covered in the report are:

• Factors fueling the Wi-Fi frenzy
• Next generation wireless networks
• Subscriber estimates and forecasts in G-7 countries
• Voice and data revenue and projections
• Leading wireless operators and market shares
• Mobile handset sales and forecasts
• Plus the 20 key trends to watch for in 2004 -- video cameras, gaming, mobile commerce and much, much more...

Here is an example of the type of information you will find in the report.

Mobile Markets: A G-7 Comparison

One of the key differences between the mobile markets in the G-7 is in mobile phone penetration. Mobile penetration averaged 80% in Western Europe at the end of 2002, ranging from highs of more than 90% in Italy and Portugal to a low of approximately 65% in France. The mobile penetration in Canada and the US was lower. Japan, at 62%, was at the low end of Western European penetration rates, but significantly higher than either the US or Canada.

There are also significant differences between the North American mobile markets and Western Europe and Japan in mobile phone usage. An average US mobile phone user is on the phone 458 minutes in a month compared to Germany at 72 minutes, France at 156 minutes and Japan at 170 minutes. Even Canada, at 270 minutes per month, is well below the US average.

Get More On Wireless -- In One Report

Drawing upon aggregated surveys, findings and data from market research firms and government agencies around the world, including Allied Business Intelligence, Federal Communications Commission, InfoCom Telecommunications Consultancy, Telecommunications Carriers Association (TCA) - Japan, Wireless World Forum (W2F), in combination with eMarketer's projections and in-depth analysis, the Wireless Worldwide report untangles this complex industry and provides you with clear signals on where the business is heading -- in your market.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Methodology

• The eMarketer Difference
• The Bene ts of eMarketer's Aggregation Approach
• "Benchmarking"and Projections

I Mobile Technology Overview

• Peak and Realistic Data Rates for 2.5G and 3G Technologies,2002

A. The Road to 3G

• 3G Migration Path for Major Wireless Operators in the G-7,2003
• Potential 3G Subscribers in North America,by Technology,2003 (in millions and % of total subscribers)
• Potential 3G Subscribers in the G-7,by Technology,2003 (in millions and as a % of total)

II Key Trends in Global Mobile 2002/2003

• Key Trends in the Global Mobile Sector,2003

A. Mobile Phones Outnumber Fixed-Line Phones

• Fixed-Line vs.Mobile Phone Subscribers Worldwide,1995,2001 & 2002 (in millions)
• Teledensity Worldwide,by Fixed-Line and Mobile Phones,2000 & 2002 (as a % of world population)

B. The Battle Heats Up CDMA2000 1x vs.GPRS

• 2.5G Subscribers Worldwide,by Technology,2002 & 2003 (in millions)
• CDMA2000 1x Subscribers in North America and Worldwide,July 2003 (in millions)
• 2.5G Subscribers Worldwide,by Technology,2003

C. 3G Available Worldwide but Asia Dominates

• Leading 3G Wireless Operators Worldwide,July 2003
• 3G Subscribers Worldwide,by Technology,2003
• 3G Subscribers Worldwide,by Technology,2003 (in millions)
• Distribution of 3G Subscribers Worldwide,by Region,July 2003

D. Mobile Entertainment is as Important as Mobile Communication Services

• Worldwide Wireless Content Revenues,by Traf c and Premium Value,2003-2007 (in millions)
• SMS,MMS,Ring Tone and Mobile Java Gaming Spending by Young People in 20 Key Markets Worldwide,by Segment,2003 & 2006 (in billions of )

E. How Big will Mobile Gaming Get?

• Comparative Estimates:Mobile Gaming Revenues Worldwide,2001-2003 & 2006-2008 (in billions)
• Wireless Gamers Worldwide,by Platform,2002-2007 (in millions)
• Worldwide Wireless Gaming Revenues,2002-2007 (in billions)

III Mobile Markets - A G-7 Comparison

• Key Characteristics of Mobile Wireless Markets in North America,Europe and Japan,2001

A. Mobile Phone Subscribers & Penetration

• Mobile Phone Penetration in the G-7,2002 (as a % of total population)
• Mobile Phone Subscribers per 100 Inhabitants for Select Countries Worldwide, 2000-2002
• Mobile Phone Subscriber Growth in the G-7,2001-2005 (as a % increase vs.prior year)
• Mobile Phone Subscribers in the G-7,2000-2002 (in millions and CAGR)
• Distribution of Mobile Phone Subscribers Worldwide,by Region,2002
• Mobile Phone Subscribers in the G-7,2000-2005 (in millions)
• Mobile Phone Penetration in the G-7,2002 & 2005 (as a % of total population)
• Percent of Mobile Phone Subscriptions that Are Pre-Paid in the G-7,2002

B. Minutes of Use (MOU)

• Mobile Usage and Revenue per Minute in the G-7,2002

C. Mobile Data/Internet Users

• Wireless Internet Users vs.Total Internet Users Worldwide,by Region,2004 & 2007 (in millions and as a % of total Internet users)
• CAAGR for Mobile Data Services in the G-7,2002-2008

D. Vodafone:A Case Study in Global Mobile Developments

• Vodafone Group's Non-Voice Revenues as Percent of Total Revenues for Select Countries Worldwide,by Segment,June 2003
• Vodafone Group's Non-Voice Revenues as Percent of Total Revenues for Select Countries Worldwide,June 2002 & June 2003
• Online Advertising,Online Paid Content and Wireless Paid Content Revenues in the US and Western Europe,2003 (in billions)

IV Country Focus:United States

A. Key Trends in 2002/2003

• Transition from 2G to 2.5G Nearly Complete
  • Percent of US Population with Available "Next-Generation" Wireless Services, March 2003
• The Effects of Number Portability
• Push-to-Talk Set to Grow
• SMS Finally Takes Off
  • SMS Users in the US,2000 & 2007 (in millions)
  • Push-to-Talk (PTT) Users in the US,2002 & 2005 (as a % of total mobile phone subscribers)
  • Mobile Phone Owners in the US Using Text Messaging,2002 & 2003 (in millions)
  • SMS Usage and Interest among US Young Adult Mobile Subscribers vs.All US Subscribers,Q4 2001 & Q4 2002 (as a % of respondents)
  • Wireless SMS and IM Subscribers in the US,2007 (in millions)
• Wi-Fi a Substitute and Complement to Mobile Data
  • Number of Hotspots in the US,2002-2007
  • Hotspot Services Revenues in the US,2003-2007 (in millions)
  • Public WLAN Hotspot Locations Worldwide,2001-2005

B. US Mobile Phone Industry Snapshot,2002

• US Mobile Phone Industry Snapshot,2001 & 2002

C. Coverage & Competition

• Mobile Phone Service Availability in the US,End of 2002
• Mobile Phone Digital Coverage in the US,2002 (in % of population covered)

D. Mobile Phone Subscribers

• Mobile Phone Subscribers in the US,1985-2002 (in millions)
• Mobile Phone Subscribers in the US,2000-2005 (in millions)
• Mobile Phone Subscribers in the US,2001-2005 (as a % increase vs.prior year)
• Mobile Phone Penetration in the US,2002 & 2005 (as a % of total population)
• Comparative Estimates:Mobile Phone Subscribers in the US,2000-2005 (in millions)

E. Leading Wireless Operators

• Mobile Phone Subscribers of Leading US Wireless Operators,2001-2003 (in millions)
• Subscriber Growth for Leading US Wireless Operators,2000-2003

F Capital Investments

• Cumulative Capital Investments in the US Wireless Industry,1990-2002 (in billions)

G. Mobile Phone Service Revenues

• Wireless/Mobile Revenues in North America,2002 & 2007 (in billions)
• Annual Mobile Phone Service Revenues in the US,1990-2002 (in thousands)

H. ARPU

• Average Local Monthly Mobile Phone Bill in the US,1988-2002

I. Mobile Data/Internet Subscribers

• Mobile Data Users in North America,2002 & 2007 (in millions)
• Mobile Data Users in the US,2000-2005 (in millions)
• Mobile Data Users in North America,2002 & 2007 (as a % of mobile users)
• Percent of US Mobile Phone Subscribers Using Mobile Data/Internet Services, 2000-2005

J. Mobile Data/Internet Revenues

• Mobile Photo Messaging Revenues in the US,2003-2008 (in millions)
• US Mobile Data Revenues,2001-2006 (in billions)
• US Wireless Gaming Revenues,2002-2007 (in millions)
• US Wireless Gamers,2002-2007 (in millions)
• US Wireless Gamers,2002 & 2007 (in millions)

K. Mobile Data ARPU

• US Mobile Data ARPU,2000-2006 (per month)

L. PDA Users & Device Sales

• PDA Sales and Percent of Sales that Are Smartphones in the US,Western Europe and Worldwide,2001-2008 (in thousands)
• PDA Users in the US,2000-2002 (as a % of the population)
• US Mobile Device Users,2001,2003 & 2005 (in millions)
• PDA Shipments in the US,by Vendor,Q2 2002 & Q2 2003 (in units,% market share and % growth)

M. Pagers

• Paging Subscribers in the US,2001 & 2002 (in millions and % decrease vs.prior year)

V Country Focus:Canada

A. Mobile Phone Subscribers

• Mobile Phone Subscribers in Canada,2000-2005 (in millions)
• Mobile Phone Penetration in Canada,2002 & 2005 (as a % of total population)
• Mobile Phone Users in Canada,2001-2006 (in millions)
• Comparative Estimates:Mobile Phone Subscribers in Canada,2000-2005 (in millions)
• Mobile Phone Penetration among Adults in Canada,November 2001 & February 2003

B. Leading Wireless Operators

• Pre-Paid vs.Post-Paid Mobile Phone Subscribers in Canada,2002 & 2003
• Mobile Phone Subscribers in Canada,by Major Wireless Operator,Q2 2003 (in millions and % pre-paid)

C. Mobile Data/Internet Subscribers

• Mobile Data Users in North America,2002 & 2007 (as a % of mobile users)
• 2.5G and 3G Subscribers in Canada (Moderate Forecast),2001-2006 (in millions)

D. Mobile Voice & Data Revenues

• Mobile Phone ARPU in Canada,2001-2006 (in CDN)
• Mobile Phone Service Revenues in Canada,2001-2006 (in billions of CAD)
• Wireless Voice and Data Revenues in Canada,2002 & 2006 (in billions of CAD)

VI Regional Spotlight:Asia

A. Key Trends in 2002/2003

• Success is Built on Mobile Services,not Bandwidth
  • Mobile Phone Subscribers in Japan,by Technology Protocol ,August 2003
• Video Camera Phones the next 'New' thing
  • Worldwide Camera-Phone Handset Sales,2002,2003,2005 & 2008 (in millions)
  • Camera Phone and Video Phone Users in Japan,July 2003 (in millions)
• South Korea Surpasses Japan in 'June'
  • SK Telecom Wireless Internet ARPU,July 2003
• Mobile Commerce Has Limited Appeal,But...
  • Importance of Select Mobile Services among Mobile Phone Users in Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong,2002 (on a scale from 1-7)
  • Product/Service that Mobile Internet Users Users in Japan,South Korea and Hong Kong Purchase Most Often,2002 (as a % of respondents)
  • Content Services that Mobile Internet Users in Japan,South Korea and Hong Kong Are Most Willing to Purchase in the Future,2002 (as a % of respondents)
  • Content Services that Mobile Internet Users in Japan,South Korea and Hong Kong Are Most Willing to Purchase in the Future,2002 (as a % of respondents)
• China The Mobile Giant Grows
  • Mobile Phone Subscribers in China,2001,2005 & 2010 (in millions)
  • Distribution of Mobile Phone Subscribers Worldwide,by Select Countries and Regions,2000 & 2002
  • Largest Mobile Data Subscriber Markets Worldwide,2007 (in millions)

VII Country Focus:Japan

A. Mobile Phone Subscribers

• Mobile Phone Subscribers in Japan,2000-2005 (in millions)
• Mobile Phone Penetration in Japan,2002 & 2005 (as a % of total population)
• Comparative Estimates:Mobile Phone Subscribers in Japan,2000-2005 (in millions)

B. Leading Wireless Operators

• Mobile Phone Subscribers in Japan,by Operator,June 2002 & August 2003 (in millions and % growth)
• Market Share of Leading Wireless Operators in Japan,August 2003 (as a % of total subscribers)
• Mobile Phone Subscribers in Japan,by Technology Protocol ,August 2003
• Mobile Phone Subscribers in Japan,by Operator and Technology Protocol, August 2003 (in millions)

C. Mobile Internet/Data Subscribers

• Mobile Internet Subscribers in Japan,by Service Type,August 2003
• Percent of Mobile Phone Subscribers in Japan with Mobile Internet Service, August 2003

D. Mobile Voice & Data Revenue

• Mobile Market Snapshot in Japan,2007

VIII Regional Spotlight:Western Europe

A. Key Trends in 2002/2003

• 3G Comes to Europe
  • 3G Subscribers in Select Countries in Western Europe,by Operator,2003
• I-mode Establishes a Global Presence
• GPRS Gathers Steam
  • GPRS Subscribers in Western Europe,2002 & 2003 (in millions)
  • I-mode Subscribers in Select Countries Worldwide,by Operator,2003
  • GPRS Subscribers in Western Europe,by Subscriber Type,End of 2002
  • GPRS Subscribers in Western Europe,by Country,2002 (as a % of respondents)

B. Mobile Phone Subscribers

• Mobile Phone Subscribers in Western Europe,2002-2007 (as a % increase vs. prior year)
• Mobile Phone Subscribers in Western Europe,2002-2007 (in millions and as a % of the population)
• Comparative Estimates:Mobile Phone Subscribers in France,2000-2005 (in millions)
• Mobile Phone Subscribers in France,Germany,Italy and the UK,2002-2005 (in millions and CAGR)
• Comparative Estimates:Mobile Phone Subscribers in Italy,2000-2005 (in millions)
• Comparative Estimates:Mobile Phone Subscribers in Germany,2000-2005
• Mobile Phone Penetration in France,Germany,Italy and the UK,2002 & 2005 (as a % of total population)
• Comparative Estimates:Mobile Phone Subscribers in the UK,2000-2005 (in millions)

C. Leading Wireless Operators

• Mobile Phone Subscribers in France,Germany,Italy and the UK,by Major Wireless Operator,Q2 2003 (in millions and % pre-paid)

D. Mobile Voice & Data Revenue

• Mobile Voice and Data Revenues in Western Europe,2002-2007 (in billions)
• Mobile Phone Revenues in Western Europe,2002-2007 (in billions and as a % increase vs.prior year)
• Breakdown of Revenues Generated by Mobile Data and Voice Services in Western Europe,2002 & 2007
• Comparative Estimates Mobile Data Revenues in Western Europe,2002 & 2007 (in billions)
• Mobile Data Revenues in Western Europe,by Technology,2002,2003 & 2007 (in billions & % of total)
• Person-to-Person Messaging Revenues in Western Europe,2003 & 2008 (in billions of )
• Number of SMS Messages in Western Europe,2002,2003 & 2007 (per user per month)
• Non-Voice Mobile Service Revenues in Western Europe,by Service Category, 2008 (in billions of )
• Mobile Data Service Revenues in Western Europe,by Service,2002 & 2007 (in billions of )
• Mobile Entertainment Service Revenues in Western Europe,2003 & 2008 (in billions of )

E. ARPU

• Average Revenue per Wireless User (ARPU) per Month in Western Europe,2002-2007
• Monthly ARPU for Mobile Operators in Select Countries in Western Europe,2000-2002
• Mobile Average Revenue per User (ARPU) per Month in Select Countries Worldwide,End of 2002 (in and as % of ARPU that is from data)

IX Mobile Handsets:Sales & Forecasts

• Mobile Device Segmentation Worldwide,2002

A. Worldwide

• Worldwide Mobile Phone Handset Sales to End-Users,by Manufacturer,Q2 2002 & Q2 2003 (in thousands of units,market share and % change)
• Worldwide Mobile Terminal Sales,by Region,2001-2004 (in millions of units)
• High-End Smart Phone Shipments Worldwide,2002 & 2007 (in millions of units and as a % of total mobile handsets shipped)
• Mobile Phone Handset Sales Worldwide,by Select Categories,2004 (in millions and year-over-year growth)
• High-End Smart Phone Operating System Market Share Worldwide,by Vendor, 2002 & 2007

B. United States

• Wireless Phone Sales to Dealers in the US,1998-2003
• Most Important Cellphone Features According to US Consumers,2003 (as a % of respondents)

C. Western Europe

• Mobile Phone Sales in Western Europe,by Technology,2002-2007 (in thousands)
• Installed Base of Mobile Phones in Western Europe,by Technology,2002-2007 (in thousands)
• Camera-Capable Mobile Terminal Shipments in Western Europe,2002-2006 (in thousands of units)
• Mobile Phone Unit Shipments in Western Europe,by Vendor,Q2 2002 & Q2 2003
• Camera-Capable Mobile Terminal Shipments in Western Europe,by Camera-Type,2002-2006 (as a % of total mobile terminal market)

Index of Charts