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SUMMARY
This new strategic report from Espicom puts the spotlight on current and
future drugs that will be used in the treatment of Type I and Type II
diabetes, providing industry and investors with a comprehensive overview of
the market in the medium term.
Industry and investor interest in the diabetes sector has been rekindled
Public awareness about the causes of Type II diabetes, an ageing population
and improving diagnosis rates are fuelling market growth. Around the globe, an
estimated 246 million people are living with diabetes today. By 2025, it is
anticipated this number will increase to around 380 million. Each year,
diabetes-related causes account for 3.8 million deaths and claim the lives of
as many people as HIV/AIDS.
In 2007, the prevention and treatment of diabetes and its complications will
cost at least US$232 billion according to current estimates. By 2025, this is
likely to increase to more than US$302.5 billion. Unmet clinical need in
developed markets and a rapidly-expanding market in emerging economies will
drive market growth.
Innovation coming to the market
Equally significant has been the introduction of new classes of drugs. The
GLP-l agonists and DPP-lV inhibitors introduce a new approach while delivery
technology continues to play a role with the introduction of Pfizer's Exubera
- the first inhaled insulin product.
Understand this key market sector
The diabetes market is taking an increasingly important role in industry's and
investors' plans which is why Espicom has published this critical analysis
Diabetes Drug Discoveries: What the future holds. The report puts the
spotlight on current and future drugs that will be used in the treatment of
Type I and Type II diabetes as well as related conditions, and provides
industry and investors with a complete and comprehensive overview of the
market in the medium term.
A growing and valuable market
There are a number of drivers in the diabetes market that are fuelling growth:
Product innovation
New classes of drugs such as GLP-l agonists and DPP-lV inhibitors have already
been launched and the pipeline is well stocked. Combination therapies will
play their part in the future as will novel drug delivery technology.
Emerging markets = rapid growth
Some of the fastest growing markets for diabetes are in emerging economies -
India, China and Indonesia are in the top 5 for disease prevalence. The impact
for both branded and generic drugs is considerable.
Unmet clinical need will keep developed markets strong
While the number of patients diagnosed has gone up it is estimated millions
are still to be identified. In the UK alone, it is estimated that up to a
million Type II sufferers are undiagnosed.
Strong annual growth expected for the next five years
With many new products yet to realise their full potential, and the high
incidence of Type II diabetes expected in emerging markets, prospects for the
sector look strong. Estimated at US$22 billion in 2007, it is forecast to grow
to US$31.4 billion by 2011, with generics performing strongly as time moves on.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
- Foreword
- Executive summary
- What is diabetes?
- A global problem
- Where in the world?
- The economic burden
- Unhealthy lifestyles; a worrying trend
- Additional health risks for young people
- The diabetes therapy market
- Diabetes management
- Current treatment options
- Insulin
- Metformin
- Sulphonylureas
- Thiazolidinediones
- Glinides
- Alpha-glucosidase inhibitors
- Amylin agonists
- GLP-1 agonists
- DPP-IV inhibitors
- What's in the pipeline?
- Further development of launched products
- Potential new drugs
- Competitor ratio analysis
- Insulin and insulin analogues
- Humulin (insulin human (rDNA origin))
- Humalog (insulin lispro)
- Lantus (insulin glargine)
- Sales forecast
- Clinical trials
- Apidra (insulin glulisine (rDNA origin))
- Further development
- Sales forecast
- Clinical trial results
- Novo Nordisk's insulin analogues
- Levemir (insulin detemir)
- NovoRapid/NovoLog (insulin aspart (rDNA origin))
- NovoMix/NovoLog Mix
- Clinical trial results
- Exubera (insulin human (rDNA origin)) inhalation powder
- Sales forecast and assumptions
- Competitor ratio analysis
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace
- Risks associated with drug development in therapeutic class
- Clinical trial results
- Ongoing studies in Type I and Type II diabetes
- Diabetes patients with respiratory infections/exposure to cigarette
smoke
- Type I diabetes
- Type II diabetes
- AERx iDMS (NN1998)
- Sales forecast and assumptions
- Competitor ratio analysis
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace
- Risks associated with drug development in therapeutic class
- Clinical trial results
- AERx iDMS compared to sc insulin aspart and sc human regular insulin
- AIR Insulin System
- Technosphere Insulin
- Clinical trial results
- Oral-lyn
- Metformin and sulphonylureas
- Glucophage (metformin)
- EASD/ADA consensus recommends metformin at diagnosis of Type II
diabetes
- Sales forecast
- Recent Research
- Metformin effective for non-obese Type II diabetes patients
- Generic competition
- Amaryl (glimepiride)
- Sales forecast
- Generic competition
- Thiazolidinediones
- Avandia (rosiglitazone)
- Sales forecast
- Clinical trial results
- ADOPT
- DREAM
- RESULT
- Rosiglitazone+atorvastatin
- Rosiglitazone+fenofibrate
- Safety issues
- Actos (pioglitazone)
- Sales forecast
- Safety issues
- Clinical trial results
- Pioglitazone in NASH
- CHICAGO
- PROactive
- COMPLEMENT
- Patent challenges/generic competition
- GLP-1 agonists
- Byetta (exenatide)
- Sales forecast and assumptions
- Competitor ratio analysis
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace
- Risks associated with drug development in therapeutic class
- Clinical trial results
- Exanatide versus biphasic insulin aspart
- Exenatide as adjunctive therapy with thiazolidinedione
- Long-acting release (LAR) formulation
- Liraglutide
- Sales forecast and assumptions
- Competitor ratio analysis
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace
- Risks associated with drug development in therapeutic class
- Clinical trial results
- AVE0010
- Sales forecast and assumptions
- Competitor ratio analysis
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace
- Risks associated with drug development in therapeutic class
- DPP-IV inhibitors
- Januvia (sitagliptin)
- Sales forecast and assumptions
- Competitor ratio analysis
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace
- Risks associated with drug development in therapeutic class
- Clinical trial results
- Januvia as monotherapy
- Januvia versus glipizide
- Januvia with metformin
- Januvia with pioglitazone
- Dose adjustment in patients with renal impairment
- Galvus (vildagliptin)
- Sales forecast and assumptions
- Competitor ratio analysis
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace
- Risks associated with drug development in therapeutic class
- Clinical trial results
- Saxagliptin
- Sales forecast and assumptions
- Competitor ratio analysis
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace
- Risks associated with drug development in therapeutic class
- Cannabinoid type 1 blockers
- Acomplia (rimonabant)
- Sales forecast and assumptions
- Competitor ratio analysis
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace
- Risks associated with drug development in therapeutic class
- Clinical trial results
- Towards greater understanding; a future cure?
- Advances in islet transplantation therapy
- MicroIslet moves towards clinical trials
- Northfield Laboratories preclinical study
- Clinical trial of islet transplantation
- Key to insulin metabolism discovered?
- New research shows immune response spreads from one protein to another
in Type I diabetes
- Beta cell regeneration
- Researchers find enzymatic regulator of insulin pathways
- Insulin-making protein identified in beta cells
- TCF7L2 polymorphisms linked to progression of Type II diabetes
- Insulin signalling defects linked to lipid metabolism
- Potential cure for recent-onset Type I diabetes?
- Encouraging preliminary results from animal pancreatic
xenotransplantation studies
- SOURCES
- Espicom sources
- Others
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