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SUMMARY
US demand to more than triple from 2005 to 2010 due to falling price of solar power
By 2010, demand for photovoltaic modules is expected to more than triple from
2005 levels to 531 megawatts. Advances will be driven by the falling price of
solar power, which will stem from technological innovations, growing economies
of scale and a rising level of government tax incentives and rebates at both
the state and federal levels. Gains will also be spurred by consumer interest
in renewable energy sources and concern about the volatility of oil and other
conventional energy prices and supplies.
In the near term, advances will be slowed by a shortage of solar-grade
silicon, a key material for the most widely used photovoltaic technology.
However, this problem is likely to fade by 2010 as silicon producers complete
planned expansions and as newer photovoltaic technologies that use little or
no silicon become more widely used.
Thin films to lead growth in photovoltaic cells
US shipments of photovoltaic cells were dominated by crystalline silicon
versions that accounted for 76 percent of volume shipments in 2005. Going
forward, thin films (e.g., amorphous silicon, cadmium telluride, gallium
arsenide, and copper, indium, gallium and diselenide types) will post far more
dramatic growth, advancing to more than eleven times their 2005 level by 2010
as a growing number of manufacturers switch from pilot to large-scale
production. Advances will be driven by the cost advantages involved in using
little or no silicon. Gains will also be driven by the ability to use these
materials in building integrated photovoltaic applications within roofing
shingles, curtain wall and others.
In 2005, the key market for photovoltaic modules (which are composed of a
series of cells installed on a substrate) was power generation, accounting for
85 percent of demand. Within that category, on-grid installations accounted
for the largest share of demand stemming from net metering programs
implemented with state governments and local utilities, and a simpler total
system which, unlike offgrid systems, does not require batteries and
supplemental generators for power after dark. Other applications include
manufactured goods, communications equipment, transportation equipment and
water systems.
California leading market
The Pacific subregion accounted for the largest share of photovoltaic module
demand in 2005, due to the large market created in California by a number of
state government incentives, including 2006's California Solar Initiative that
features the Million Solar Roofs program, and weather conditions that are
amenable to solar power generation. Study coverage
Study coverage
This new Freedonia industry study, Solar Energy Products, presents historical
demand data plus forecasts to 2010 and 2015 for photovoltaic cells and modules
by type and US region. The study also considers market environment factors,
evaluates company market share and profiles 31 leading competitors.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION
I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
II. MARKET ENVIRONMENT
- General
- Macroeconomic Trends
- Consumer Spending Trends
- Demographic Trends
- Manufacturers' Shipments
- Construction
- Building Construction
- Residential Building Construction
- Nonresidential Building Construction
- Nonbuilding Construction
- Electric Power Generation
- Energy Consumption
- Environmental Considerations
- Government Incentives
- State & Municipal Level
- Federal Level
- Pricing Trends
III. WORLD SOLAR ENERGY PRODUCT MARKET
- General
- World Demand
- US Trade
- Photovoltaic Cells
- Photovoltaic Modules
IV. PHOTOVOLTAIC CELLS
- General
- Silicon Requirements
- Supply & Demand
- Types
- Crystalline Silicon
- Single Crystalline Silicon
- Multicrystalline Silicon
- Thin Films
- Amorphous Silicon
- Cadmium Telluride
- Gallium Arsenide
- CIS/CIGS
V. PHOTOVOLTAIC MODULES
- General
- Photovoltaic Systems
- Module Supply & Demand
- Module Types
- Applications
- Electric Power Generation
- On-Grid
- Residential
- Nonresidential
- Off-Grid
- Residential
- Nonresidential
- Other Applications
- Manufactured Products
- Communications
- Transportation
- All Other
VI. REGIONAL DEMAND FOR ELECTRIC POWER GENERATION PV MODULES
- General
- Regional Demographic & Economic Trends
- Population Patterns
- Economic Outlook
- Construction Activity
- Housing Trends
- Regional Demand for Electric Generation PV Modules
- Northeast
- New England
- Middle Atlantic
- Midwest
- East North Central
- West North Central
- South
- South Atlantic
- East South Central
- West South Central
- West
VII. INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
- General
- Industry Concentration
- Market Share
- Competitive Strategies
- Research & Development
- Marketing
- Distribution
- Acquisitions & Divestitures
- Cooperative Agreements
COMPANY PROFILES
- ATS Automation Tooling Systems Incorporated
- Atlantis Energy Systems Incorporated
- BP plc
- Cypress Semiconductor Corporation
- Deutsche Cell GmbH, see SolarWorld AG
- Deutsche Solar AG, see SolarWorld AG
- Dow Corning Corporation
- Energy Conversion Devices Incorporated
- Energy Photovoltaics Incorporated
- Evergreen Solar Incorporated
- EverQ GmbH, see Evergreen Solar Incorporated and Q-Cells AG
- First Solar Incorporated
- General Electric Company
- Global Solar Energy Incorporated
- HelioVolt Corporation
- Hemlock Semiconductor Corporation, see Dow Corning Corporation
- ICP Solar Technologies Incorporated
- Iowa Thin Film Technologies Incorporated, see PowerFilm Incorporated
- Joint Solar Silicon GmbH & Company KG, see SolarWorld AG
- Konarka Technologies Incorporated
- Kyocera Corporation
- Matrix Solar Technologies Incorporated, see ATS Automation Tooling Systems
Incorporated
- Miasole
- Motech Industries Incorporated
- Photowatt International SAS, see ATS Automation Tooling Systems
Incorporated
- PowerFilm Incorporated
- PowerLight Corporation
- Q-Cells AG
- RGS Development BV, see SolarWorld AG
- Royal Dutch Shell plc
- SANYO Electric Company Limited
- SCHOTT AG
- Sharp Corporation
- Silicon Solar Incorporated
- Solar Factory GmbH, see SolarWorld AG
- Solar Plus SA, see Energy Photovoltaics Incorporated
- Solar Power Industries Incorporated
- SolarWorld AG
- Spire Corporation
- SunPower Corporation, see Cypress Semiconductor Corporation
- Suntech Power Holdings Company Limited
- United Solar Ovonic LLC, see Energy Conversion Devices Incorporated
- XsunX Incorporated
- Yingli Solar
- Other Companies Mentioned in Study
LIST OF TABLES
SECTION I -- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
SECTION II -- MARKET ENVIRONMENT
- 1. Macroeconomic Indicators
- 2. Personal Income & Expenditures
- 3. Resident Population & Households
- 4. Manufacturers' Shipments
- 5. Total Construction Expenditures
- 6. Building Construction Expenditures
- 7. Residential Building Construction Expenditures
- 8. Nonresidential Building Construction Expenditures
- 9. Nonbuilding Construction Expenditures
- 10. Electric Power Generation
- 11. Energy Consumption
- 12. Solar Energy Product Pricing
SECTION III -- WORLD SOLAR ENERGY PRODUCT MARKET
- 1. World Demand for Photovoltaic Modules
- 2. US Trade of Photovoltaic Cells
- 3. US Trade of Photovoltaic Modules
SECTION IV -- PHOTOVOLTAIC CELLS
- 1. Silicon Requirements for Photovoltaic Cells
- 2. Photovoltaic Cell Supply & Demand
- 3. Photovoltaic Cell Shipments
- 4. Crystalline Silicon Photovoltaic Cell Shipments
- 5. Single Crystalline Silicon Photovoltaic Cell Shipments
- 6. Multicrystalline Silicon Photovoltaic Cell Shipments
- 7. Photovoltaic Thin Film Shipments
SECTION V -- PHOTOVOLTAIC MODULES
- 1. Photovoltaic System Shipments
- 2. Photovoltaic Module Supply & Demand
- 3. Photovoltaic Module Shipments
- 4. Photovoltaic Module Demand by Application
- 5. Electric Power Generation Demand for Photovoltaic Modules
- 6. On-grid (Grid Interactive) Electric Generation Demand for Photovoltaic
Modules
- 7. Off-grid (Remote) Electric Generation Demand for Photovoltaic Modules
- 8. Other Applications for Photovoltaic Modules
SECTION VI -- REGIONAL DEMAND FOR ELECTRIC POWER GENERATION PV MODULES
- 1. Resident Population & Households by Region
- 2. Regional Gross Domestic Product
- 3. Regional Construction Expenditures
- 4. Regional Housing Sales, New Units & Stock
- 5. Regional Demand for Electric Generation Photovoltaic Modules
- 6. Northeast Power Generation Photovoltaic Module Demand
- 7. Midwest Power Generation Photovoltaic Module Demand
- 8. South Power Generation Photovoltaic Module Demand
- 9. West Electric Generation Photovoltaic Module Demand
SECTION VII -- INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
- 1. Solar Energy Product Sales by Company, 2005
- 2. Selected Acquisitions & Divestitures
- 3. Selected Cooperative Agreements
LIST OF CHARTS
SECTION II -- MARKET ENVIRONMENT
- 1. Electric Power Generation, 2005
- 2. Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, 1995-2015
SECTION III -- WORLD SOLAR ENERGY PRODUCT MARKET
- 1. Photovoltaic Module Demand by Region, 2005
- 2. Photovoltaic Cell Imports by Source, 2005
- 3. Photovoltaic Cell Exports by Destination, 2005
- 4. Photovoltaic Module Imports by Source, 2005
- 5. Photovoltaic Module Exports by Destination, 2005
SECTION V -- PHOTOVOLTAIC MODULES
- 1. Electric Power Generation Demand for Photovoltaic Modules by Segment,
1995-2015
- 2. Other Applications for Photovoltaic Modules, 2005
SECTION VI -- REGIONAL DEMAND FOR ELECTRIC POWER GENERATION PV MODULES
- 1. Regional Demand for Electric Generation Photovoltaic Modules, 2005
SECTION VII -- INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
- 1. Photovoltaic Modules Market Share, 2005
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