European Market for Next Generation Diesel Engine Technologies

SUMMARY

Increasing Penetration of Diesel Engines in the European Market

Diesel engines are gaining in popularity in Europe, penetrating even those vehicle segments that have traditionally been considered gasoline engine strongholds. For instance, the luxury and sports vehicle segments are beginning to favour diesel engines for their improved performance and power density as well as greater refinement in terms of superior noise, vibration and harshness (NVH) characteristics. Market share of diesel engines has been steadily increasing, from a more or less constant 14 per cent between 1987 and 1991 to 33 per cent in 2000 and then to around 45 per cent in 2003, largely due to the introduction of sophisticated technologies such as direct injection (DI), variable geometry turbocharging and common rail direct injection (CRDI).

This Frost & Sullivan research provides a strategic analysis of the developing European diesel engine technologies market, charting the evolution of these technologies over the period 2001-2012. It examines individual diesel technologies in great detail and provides unit and revenue forecasts for their overall penetration in the European market. Penetration rates of individual technologies and their revenue forecasts are also provided.

Boosting Technologies and Fuel Injection Equipment to Witness Sustained Development

Boosting technologies contribution to diesel engine technology revenues is expected to remain steady over the study period (2001-2012), with fixed geometry turbocharging anticipated to gradually give way to variable geometry and multi-stage turbocharging. "Although these systems are currently featured in upper segment vehicles, the technology is likely to trickle down to the lower vehicle segments as penetration rates and production volumes increase," notes the analyst of this research service. A significant case in point is the 5-Series from BMW for multi-stage turbocharging, which the company expects to penetrate other vehicle models.

However, fuel injection technologies are anticipated to contribute the bulk of revenues ? about ?5.25 billion in 2012. Among these, CRDI and unit injector technologies along with multiple injection events and variable nozzle characteristics are expected to attract the maximum interest in the European market.

DPFs Register Higher Growth than other Technologies

Exhaust gas after-treatment systems such as diesel particulate filters (DPFs) are expected to significantly grow during the study period with penetration rates likely to reach 35 per cent in 2010. Vehicle manufacturers (VMs) are favouring DPFs because of their huge potential with regard to particulate matter and oxides of nitrogen reduction. Governments are also doing their bit to encourage the adoption of DPFs, offering fiscal incentives for vehicles equipped with such solutions. VMs and suppliers are taking full advantage of these benefits, thereby increasing the penetration rates of DPFs.

"Frost & Sullivan estimates that the revenues generated by DPFs will reach ?1.47 billion in 2012 with the number of units in the region of 4.2-4.4 million," says the analyst. "The most important contributor to this is expected to be the increased penetration rates of DPFs due to increasingly strict emission norms."

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Market Overview

Introduction

Research Content

Key Market Legislative and Technological Trends

Major Research Findings

Total European Market for Diesel Engines

Competitive Structure and Analysis

Strategic Conclusions

2 EUROPEAN DIESEL ENGINES MARKET

Introduction

Overview and Definitions

Diesel Engine Technologies

Introduction and Overview

Technology Roadmap and Adoption Timescale

Legislative Trends and Socio-Cultural Factors Influencing the Market

Impact of Emission Standards

Impact of Legal Regulations

Local Government Policies

Socio Cultural Factors

Market Size and Revenue Forecasts

Total Diesel Engine Market Size and Forecasts

Forecasts and Breakdown by Geographical Region

Forecasts and Breakdown by Vehicle Segment

Forecasts and Breakdown by Vehicle Manufacturer

Forecasts and Breakdown by Technology Type

Forecasts and Breakdown by Product Type

Pricing Analysis

Cost of New Technologies

Analysis of VMs Plans to Absorb Higher Costs

Conclusions and Strategic Recommendations

Estimated Market Opportunity by Technology Type

Estimated Opportunity by Vehicle Segment

Assessment of Uptake Rates of New Technologies when Positioned as Optional/Standard

3 BOOSTING TECHNOLOGIES

Introduction and Overview

Introduction

Exhaust Gas Boosting [Turbocharging]

Mechanical Boosting [Supercharging]

Key Market Drivers and Restraints

Market Drivers

Market Restraints

Market Size and Forecasts for Boosting Technologies

Total Market Units and Revenue Forecasts

Market Breakdown by Technology

Pricing Analysis and Forecasts by Technology

Vehicle Segment Penetration Analysis

Cost Benefit Analysis

Cost Benefit Analysis

Competitive Analysis

Market Share Analysis

Profiles of Key Market Participants

4 FUEL SYSTEMS

Introduction and Overview

Introduction and Overview

Indirect Injection

Direct Injection

Common Rail Direct Injection

Unit Injectors

Homogeneous Charge Compression Ignition

Key Market Drivers and Restraints

Market Drivers

Market Restraints

Market Size and Forecasts for Fuel Systems

Total Market Units and Revenues Forecast

Market Breakdown by Technology

Pricing Analysis and Forecasts by Technology

Vehicle Segment Penetration Analysis

Cost Benefit Analysis

Cost Benefit Analysis

Competitive Analysis

Market Share Analysis

Profiles of Key Market Participants

5 VALVETRAIN

Introduction and Overview

Introduction

Key Market Drivers and Restraints

Market Drivers

Market Restraints

Application Analysis

Application Analysis

Cost Benefit Anlaysis of Valvetrain Systems

6 ENGINE MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS

Introduction and Overview

Introduction

Exhaust Gas Recirculation

Cylinder De-activation

Exhaust After-treatment

Key Market Drivers and Restraints

Market Drivers

Market Restraints

Total Market Units and Revenue Forecasts

Introduction

Market Breakdown by Technology

Pricing Analysis and Forecast By Technology

Vehicle Segment Penetration Analysis

Remanufactured DPFs

Cost Benefit Analysis

Cost Benefit Analysis

Competitive Analysis

Market Share Analysis

Profiles of Key Market Participants

7 VEHICLE MANUFACTURER PROFILES

BMW

Introduction

Analysis of BMWs Diesel Engine Technology Roadmap

Analysis of BMWs Performance Goals

Analysis by Vehicle Segment

Technology Directions by Engine Platform/Family

Feedback on Supplier Solutions

DaimlerChrysler

Introduction

Analysis of DaimlerChryslers Diesel Engine Technology Roadmap

Analysis of DaimlerChryslers Performance Goals

Analysis by Vehicle Segment

Technology Directions by Engine Platform/Family

Feedback on Supplier Solutions

Ford

Introduction

Analysis of Fords Diesel Engine Technology Roadmap

Analysis of Fords Performance Goals

Analysis by Vehicle Segment

Technology Directions by Engine Platform/Family

Feedback on Supplier Solutions

PSA

Introduction

Analysis of PSAs Diesel Engine Technology Roadmap

Analysis of PSAs Performance Goals

Analysis by Vehicle Segment

Technology Directions by Engine Platform/Family

Feedback on Supplier Solutions

Renault-Nissan

Introduction

Analysis of Renault-Nissans Diesel Engine Technology Roadmap

Analysis of Renault-Nissans Performance Goals

Analysis by Vehicle Segment

Technology Directions by Engine Platform/Family

Feedback on Supplier Solutions

Volkswagen Group

Introduction

Analysis of Volkswagens Diesel Engine Technology Roadmap

Analysis of Volkswagens Performance Goals

Analysis by Vehicle Segment

Technology Directions by Engine Platform/Family

Feedback on Supplier Solutions

GM-Fiat

Introduction

Analysis of GM-Fiats Diesel Engine Technology Roadmap

Analysis of GM-Fiats Performance Goals

Analysis by Vehicle Segment

Technology Directions by Engine Platform/Family

Feedback on Supplier Solutions

Toyota

Introduction

Analysis of Toyotas Diesel Engine Technology Roadmap

Analysis of Toyotas Performance Goals

Analysis by Vehicle Segment

Technology Directions by Engine Platform/Family

Feedback on Supplier Solutions

Honda

Introduction

Analysis of Hondas Diesel Engine Technology Roadmap

Analysis of Hondas Performance Goals

Analysis by Vehicle Segment

8 FROST & SULLIVAN AWARDS

Frost & Sullivan Awards

Competitive Strategy Leadership Award

Market Penetration Leadership Award

Product Differentiation Innovation Award

Product Line Strategy Leadership Award

Product Quality Leadership (or Innovation) Award

9 APPENDIX AND DATA SHEETS

Exchange Rates

Exchange Rate Table