White Paper on Light Vehicle Diesel Engine Technologies and Market Prospects in the United States

SUMMARY

Diesel Engine Technologies are an Appropriate Interim Solution before Gasoline Electric Hybrid and Fuel Cells become Available to the Mass Market

Stringent emission norms, better fuel economy, reduced dependence on foreign oil, and the desire for a cleaner, healthier environment have led to the growing popularity of diesel vehicles in recent times. Though gasoline-powered vehicles are better than diesel vehicles with respect to emissions, diesel vehicles fare much better in terms of fuel economy. Diesels also deliver more low-end torque, and therefore have better hill-climbing ability. In 2001, light trucks -- pickup trucks, minivans, full-size vans, and SUVs -- outsold cars for the first time, and they have continued to do so every year since then. In 2004, 54.9 percent of all new light vehicles purchased in the United States were light trucks. This is a favorable situation for diesel engines, as they have a greater presence in light trucks than in cars.

Several technologies to reduce emissions from diesel vehicles are available, and others are being developed. At the same time, technologies to improve the fuel efficiency of gasoline engines are being developed. Additionally, the feasibility of alternative fuels and fuel cell hybrids is being investigated. However, it may take some time before any of these become available in the mass market. Diesel vehicles, fitted with emission control technologies and run on ultra low sulfur diesel (ULSD) fuel, seem to be an appropriate interim solution for meeting stringent emission norms, improving fuel economy, conserving energy, and cleaning the environment.

Stability in Price of Diesel Fuel vs. Increasing Price of Gasoline

The price of diesel fuel has been more stable than the price of gasoline, which saw high fluctuations in 2004. Both gasoline and diesel prices increased in 2004, but the increase in the price of gasoline was--on average--higher than that of diesel. This is because of the higher cost of refining gasoline. In addition, taxes paid for crude oil in gasoline are 51 percent compared to 48 percent on diesel.

With the price of crude oil increasing, and the taxes on crude oil for diesel being less than taxes on crude oil for gasoline, the price of diesel fuel is likely to be more stable than the price of gasoline. This could drive consumers towards diesel vehicles, knowing that fuel savings can be attained by using diesel over gasoline.

Diesel Penetration in U.S. Light Vehicles Is Pegged at 5 to 6 percent by 2010

Diesel light vehicles are likely to reach a penetration rate of 5 to 6 percent by the year 2010. This will be as a result of the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) mandate to make ultra low sulfur diesel (ULSD) fuel widely available by September 1, 2006. Another factor contributing towards this is the consumer preference for light diesel vehicles, especially pickup trucks, SUVs, and full-size vans. The sales share of light trucks has been growing for decades, and has exceeded the sales share of passenger cars every year since 2001.

Most importantly, vehicle manufacturers such as Mercedes-Benz, Chrysler, and Volkswagen are confident about the sales potential of diesel-powered vehicles and therefore are launching additional diesel models.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

• 1. Executive Summary
  • 1. Introduction
    • 1. Executive Summary
    • 2. Methodology
• 2. Light Vehicle Diesel Engine Technologies and Market Prospects in the United States
  • 1. Introduction
    • 1. Market Overview
    • 2. Growing Popularity of Diesel Fuel
  • 2. Case Study
    • 1. Comparison of a Diesel Vehicle vs Similar Gasoline Vehicle Model
  • 3. Market Drivers and Restraints
    • 1. Market Drivers
    • 2. Market Restraints
  • 4. Diesel Vehicles in the United States
    • 1. Diesel Vehicles in Use
    • 2. Diesel Vehicles Sales
    • 3. Sales Trends
    • 4. Diesel Vehicles Available
  • 5. Emission Control Technologies
    • 1. Diesel Oxidation Catalysts
    • 2. Selective Catalytic Reduction
    • 3. NOx Adsorbers
    • 4. Diesel Particulate Filter or Trap Oxidizer
    • 5. Exhaust Gas Recirculation
    • 6. Plasma Exhaust Treatment
  • 6. Expected Future Trends in Diesel Engine Technology
    • 1. Gasoline or Diesel or Gasoline-Electric Hybrids?
    • 2. Future Trends in Diesel Technology
  • 7. Barriers to Adoption of Diesel Engine Technology
    • 1. Current and Future Emission Norms
    • 2. Barriers to Adoption of Diesel Technology
  • 8. Strategies to Overcome Barriers
    • 1. Addressing the Image Problem
    • 2. Addressing the Cost Barrier
    • 3. Addressing the Non-Availability of Low Sulfur Diesel
    • 4. Addressing the Infrastructure Barrier
    • 5. Addressing the Technology Barrier
  • 9. Conclusions
    • 1. The Complete Picture
    • 2. Conclusion
• 3. Appendix
  • 1. Glossary
    • 1. Acronyms and Abbreviations
    • 2. Conversion Equations
  • 2. Decision Support Database
    • 1. Light Vehicles in Use
    • 2. Retail Gas Stations