FTTP Equipment & Fiber Cable Requirements - 2007

SUMMARY

Overview:

This report is a companion to the latest FTTP report. In this report we will use the forecasts in the new FTTP report to develop equipment requirements and fiber cable requirements for FTTP.

The RBOCs, all three (now that the AT&T/BellSouth merger has been consummated) to greater or lesser extents, are now in the process of rolling out FTTP. Verizon has a monumental effort underway, and the other two are in various stages (lab tests, minor deployments or preparing massive rollouts) of deployment. The RBOCs have actually moved into the video business in a massive way. As forecast in our 2005 and 2006 reports, two of the RBOCs are in the residential TV delivery business. Several relatively new technologies have been deployed in their entries into that business, and the RBOCs will use just about every imaginable combination of those technologies to achieve their objectives.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

TABLE OF FIGURES

LIGHTWAVE SERIES OF REPORTS

• General Reports on the Network
• General Market Reports
• Specific Systems Reports

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• This Report
• Background

INTRODUCTION

WHAT ARE PONS?

• The PON Design
• Status of PON
• Advantage and Disadvantages of PON
• Types of PONs
  • BPON
  • EPON
  • GPON
• The PON in the First RFP
• GPONs
• Architectures to Meet the Needs

MARKET FORECAST

• Forecast Methodology
• Verizon Plan
  • Verizon - Physical Description
  • Verizon - Size of Rollout
• AT&T Plan
  • AT&T - Physical Description
  • AT&T - Size of Rollout
• BellSouth Plan
  • BellSouth - Physical Description
    • Pre-Merger
    • Post-Merger
• Qwest Plan
  • FTTP
  • Other Architectures
  • Future Plans
• Comparing the Plans of the RBOCs
• Summary of Announced Plans
  • Verizon
  • AT&T
  • Bell South
  • Qwest
• Summary information on the Announced Plans
• Announced Plans - Quantitative Analysis
  • Announced Plans - Size

FORECAST FOR FTTP

• Forecasts for Deployment
  • AT&T
  • Verizon
  • BellSouth
  • Qwest
• Deployment Forecast Summary
  • AT&T
  • Verizon
  • BellSouth
  • Qwest
• Forecast size of Deployments
  • Forecast Technologies by Type
  • Forecast PONs - GPON vs. BPONs

FTTP EQUIPMENT AND FIBER CABLE FORECAST

• Equipment and Fiber Items Considered
• Equipment Items
  • PONs
  • OLTs and Splitters Forecasts
    • RBOC Plans
    • IGI Forecast
  • Subscriber Units - ONUs
    • RBOC Plans
    • IGI Forecast
  • Outside Plant Equipment
    • RBOC Plans
    • IGI Forecast
• Fiber Cable
  • Fibers - Current RBOC Plans
  • Fibers - IGI Forecast RBOC Plans
  • Fibers Required - Summary and Comparison of Plans vs. Forecast
• Vendors Listing
• Summary of Vendors
• Detailed Listing of Vendors
  • ACTERNA
  • Adtran
  • Advanced Fibre Communications Inc. (AFCI) (Now Tellabs)
  • Alcatel
  • Alloptic Inc
  • Amino Technologies plc
  • AOC Technologies
  • Avanex Corporation
  • Broadlight
  • Calix
  • Cisco
  • Corrigent
  • Entrisphere, Inc.
  • Ericsson
  • Fiberxon
  • Finisar Corporation
  • FlexLight Networks
  • Fujitsu
  • Genone3 Technologies, Inc.
  • LightComm Technology
  • Lucent/Alcatel
  • Marconi
  • Microsoft
  • Motorola
  • NeoPhotonics
  • Nortel
  • OFS
  • O-Net Communications Ltd
  • Oplink Communications, Inc.
  • Optiviva Inc.
  • Optical Solutions
  • Osaki Electric Co., Ltd.
  • Paceon (Mitsubishi)
  • Passav
  • Quantum Bridge Communications
  • Salira Optical Network Systems
  • Scientific-Atlanta
  • Siemens
  • Tandberg, Ltd.
  • Tellabs
  • Terawave
  • Tut Systems
  • Vinci Systems, Inc.
  • Wave7 Optics
  • Zhone Technologies

Table of Figures

• Figure 1, PON Basic Arrangement
• Figure 2, RFP PON - Central Office Portion
• Figure 3, RFP PON - Outside Plant Portion
• Figure 4, RFP PON Service Assignments
• Figure 5, BPON/GPON Comparison
• Figure 6, Typical GPON
• Figure 7, Bandwidth Needs vs. Capabilities
• Figure 8, Equipment and cable in the report in the Report
• Figure 9, Announced Plans Summary Chart
• Figure 10, Announced Plans - Annual HPs
• Figure 11, Announced Plans - HPs Cumulative Passed vs. Served
• Figure 12, Announced Plan - Comparison to H-S Accesses
• Figure 13, Forecast Homes Passed Cumulative - All Technologies
• Figure 14, Forecast Homes Passed Annually - By Company - All Technologies
• Figure 15, FTTX vs. H-S Accesses vs. US Households
• Figure 16, Technology Type Cumulative - Forecast
• Figure 17, Forecast Technologies - Homes Passed - Annual
• Figure 18, Forecast Homes Passed - PONs vs. Other Technologies
• Figure 19, Total PONS Forecast - RBOCs - Cumulative
• Figure 20, Moving from BPONs to GPONs
• Figure 21, Forecast BPONs vs. GPONs by Year
• Figure 22, Verizon PON Forecast
• Figure 23, AT&T PON Forecast
• Figure 24, Equipment and cable in the report in the Report
• Figure 25, Currently Planned PONs
• Figure 26, Forecast for PON Implementation
• Figure 27, Forecast Access Networks by Architecture
• Figure 28, OLTs - BPONs - RBOC Plans
• Figure 29, Table for GPONs OLTs - RBOC Plans
• Figure 30, Table for all PONs - OLTs - RBOC Plans
• Figure 31, OLTs - BPONs - IGI Forecast
• Figure 32, Table for GPONs OLTs - IGI Forecast
• Figure 33, Table for all PONs - OLTs - IGI Forecast
• Figure 34, BPON Subscriber Units - RBOC Plans
• Figure 35, GPON Subscriber Units - RBOC Plans
• Figure 36, All PON Subscriber Units - RBOC Plans
• Figure 37, BPON Subscriber Units - IGI Forecast
• Figure 38, GPON Subscriber Units - IGI Forecast
• Figure 39, All PON Subscriber Units - IGI Forecast
• Figure 40, Outside Plant Equipment - BPONS - RBOCs Plans
• Figure 41, Outside Plant Equipment - GPONS - RBOCs Plans
• Figure 42, Outside Plant Equipment - All PONS - RBOCs Plans
• Figure 43, Outside Plant Equipment - BPONS - IGI Forecast
• Figure 44, Outside Plant Equipment - GPONS - IGI Forecast
• Figure 45, Outside Plant Equipment - All PONS - IGI Forecast
• Figure 46, Fibers Needed Current Plans
• Figure 47, Forecast Fiber Used By Technology
• Figure 48, Comparison of Plan vs. Forecast for Fiber Strand Requirements
• Figure 49, Summary of Vendors