Digital Music Meets Mobile Music A Detailed Analysis of the European Market

SUMMARY

The definitive report for music and mobile industry professionals helping you understand the future of digital music so you can be more successful.

• Latest market developments
• Detailed tests of leading services
• Strategic analysis
• Market forecasts
• Future developments
• Industry structure & value chain
• Business opportunities

Scope

This major undertaking covers the digital music arena in detail, both fixed and mobile.

Our focus is providing you with a clear understanding of all the very latest developments and an in-depth picture of how this fascinating market will evolve in the coming years.

This report explains all these trends in detail providing for the first time a total picture which will be equally valuable to professionals working in the mobile industry and also the music business.

You will find detailed profiles of the very latest developments in the digital music business up to September 2004 following a flurry of activity and announcements in 1H04.

We have built on these developments to explain in detail what the next wave of announcements are likely to be and, in addition, what this means for the various players in the market.

Key Questions Addressed

• What role will mobile operators play in the digital music business - retailers, destination portals or access providers?
• How will digital music affect the operation and structure music industry?
• Will digital music completely replace the CD or more simply emerge as a complementary format?
• What will be the effect on the overall music industry: contraction or growth?
• What impact will the emergence of realtones have on the ringtone value chain and who will be the winners?
• How much of the digital music pie will the mobile operators see?
• What are the key success factors involved in the digital music business?
• Will broadband and 3G penetration boost or inhibit the development of the market?

Audience

Product managers in mobile operators who have responsibility for entertainment products as well as those that work in corporate functions including strategy and business development will find this report invaluable.

Executives who work for record labels, digital music retailers and technology companies that supply products and services to the digital media industry will also benefit greatly from reading the report.

Investment professionals and financial analysts will also glean much from this report which offers a one-stop-shop for practically everything you need to know about the digital music business.

Experts will benefit by adding a new level of detail to their knowledge as well as being able to test their own thinking while those eyeing up the digital music business as a opportunity will be able to fast-track their understanding of the market.

Methodology

This report contains the results of a detailed test program carried on a wide range of digital music services in several categories both online and mobile that will allow you to clearly see how the various services work and how they compare.

Our test results are supplemented by in-depth strategic analysis drawing upon on many years of operational and consulting experience in the technology industry to provide you with a unique 'birds-eye' view of how the market will evolve.

Forecasts

The report contains detailed projections of the value of the digital music market as well as the proportion of this that will be realised via mobile devices.

In addition, we provide very detailed explanations of the basis for all forecasts that will allow you to clearly understand the market drivers.

Supporting the forecasts are numerous frameworks that clarify some of the most contentious and intractable issues in both digital music and mobile communications.

Mobile channel

Because the mobile channel will have an increasingly important role as the digital music market develops, we have carried out a detailed analysis of the European 3G market over the next 10 years.

In addition, we address the mobile Internet and explain in detail how this will develop and what the implications will be for mobile operators and, in particular, WAP portals.

With this one report you will be able compare projections for fixed and mobile broadband with smartphone rollout - and with 3G and digital music rollouts.

You will also be able to understand how these parallel markets are inter-related from the perspective of digital music.

The future

We have gone well beyond the usual forecasting boundaries and provide many specific examples of how the digital music market will develop - both online and offline - even including in some cases actual product mock-ups.

This report will open your eyes to the most likely developments in the coming years so you can better identify business opportunities and assess the competitiveness of your own position in the market.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION

2 THE MUSIC BUSINESS: PHYSICAL FORMAT

• 2.1 Introduction
  • Record Labels: Late Starters, Quick Learners
  • Mobile Operators: Early Success, Now Doing Their Own Thing
  • Analysis: A Complex Problem
  • No Consumer Research?
  • Vision, Forecasting and Opportunity
• 2.2 Industry Operation
  • 2.2.1 Writers: Songwriters and Composers
  • 2.2.2 Performers: Artist, Acts and Talent
  • 2.2.3 Agents and Professionals
  • 2.2.4 Music Publishers
  • 2.2.5 Record Labels
    • Talent Prospecting
    • Recording Contracts
    • Writing and Recording Songs
    • Manufacturing and Distribution
    • Tour Support
    • Marketing
    • Website
    • Clubs
    • New Media Channels
    • Media Relations
    • Television and Radio
    • Agencies
    • Advertisements
    • Formatting
    • Artist Image
    • Direct Mail
    • Store Events and Promos
    • Music Video
    • Retail Placement
    • Strategic Aspects of the Marketing Process
    • Investment Function
  • 2.2.6 Manufacturers
  • 2.2.7 Distributors
  • 2.2.8 Retailers: Record Stores
• 2.3 Music Copyright
  • 2.3.1 Creation of Musical Rights
  • 2.3.2 Mechanical Rights
  • 2.3.3 Sound Recording Rights
    • Soundalike Ringtones
  • 2.3.4 Examples of Usage Rights: Mechanical and Sound Recording Rights
  • 2.3.5 Additional Licenses: Performance Elements
  • 2.3.6 Summary: License Rates for Various Music Formats
• 2.4 The European Music Market
  • 2.4.1 Size of European Major Recorded Music Markets
    • Illegitimate Downloads
    • The Good News
  • 2.4.2 Unit Sales: Total Songs
  • 2.4.3 Structure of European Retail Market
  • 2.4.4 Repertoire Mix: The Importance of Local Content
  • 2.4.5 Music Videos
  • 2.4.6 Consumer Demographics

3 DIGITAL MUSIC: OVERVIEW

• 3.1 Value Propostion: Digital Music
  • 3.1.1 Comparison with the CD
  • 3.1.2 Lack of Tangibility
• 3.2 Is Digital Music Simply Another dot.com Fiasco?
  • 3.2.1 Strong, Proven Customer Proposition
  • 3.2.2 Tangible Distribution Advantages
  • 3.2.3 Large Market
• 3.3 Format Replacement: The Compact Disc
  • 3.3.1 Successful Formats Offer Clear Consumer Benefits
    • Reduced Sound Quality
  • 3.3.2 New Formats Are About Value, Not Price
  • 3.3.3 Digital Music is Unique: Demand-Led Market
  • 3.3.4 Summary
• 3.4 The Value of Music
  • 3.4.1 Value Prespective 1: Absolute Value of Recorded Music
    • The Sony-BMG Case
    • Generator\'s Analysis
  • 3.4.2 Value Perspective 2: Underlying Need for Musical Entertainment Limits Demand
  • 3.4.3 Value Perspective 3: Content Drives Demand, Not Price
  • 3.4.4 Value Perspective 4: Price is a Secondary Consideration for Most Consumers
  • 3.4.5 Value Perspective 5: High Margins Do Not Mean Prices Are Too High
• 3.5 Pricing: Digital Music
  • 3.5.1 Long-Run Album Pricing
    • The Cost of CDs
• 3.6 Pricing: Benchmarking Digital Song Pricing
  • 3.6.1 Per-Song Prices: Compact Disc Albums
  • 3.6.2 Per Song Prices: Compact Disc Singles
  • 3.6.3 Complicating Factors
    • Relative Worth: Hit Songs and Fillers
    • Differences Between Genres
    • The Effect of Digitisation on Product Formatting
    • Extra Value Offered by Digital Music
    • Price Plays: Bundling and Promotions
    • Commoditisation
• 3.7 Music Subscription Services
  • 3.7.1 Consumer Benefits
  • 3.7.2 Future Potential
  • 3.7.3 Premium Pricing
• 3.8 The Role of the Player
  • 3.8.1 Example: The iPod
  • 3.8.2 Discussion
    • Corporate Priority
    • iTunes: A Simple Loss Leader?
    • Bundling
• 3.9 Evolution to Digital Movies
  • 3.9.1 Players: Personal Media Centers
  • 3.9.2 The Personal Movie Market
  • 3.9.3 Comparison Between Portable Movie and Music Markets
    • Personal Market
    • Home Market

4 THE MUSIC BUSINESS: DIGITAL FORMAT

• 4.1 Consumer Experience
  • 4.1.1 Discovering Music
    • Infomediaries: MP3 Blogs, Chatrooms, Messageboards
    • Equal Stakeholders
    • Trusted: Impartial
    • Quality
    • Intermediaries
    • Into Music
    • Artistlaunch
    • Vitaminic Buongiorno
    • Interent Undeground Music Association - IUMA
    • Peoplesound
    • Vitaminic
    • Soundclick.com
    • Textone
    • Magnatune
  • 4.1.2 Obtaining and Consuming Music
• 4.2 Music Production
  • 4.2.1 Tilly and The Wall
  • 4.2.2 Impact on Established Record Labels
  • 4.2.3 Impact on Wannabe Acts
  • 4.2.4 Talent Supply
• 4.3 Industry Structure and Operation
  • 4.3.1 Artists
  • 4.3.2 Record Labels
  • 4.3.3 New Entrants
    • Capital Providers
    • Artist Marketing Services
  • 4.3.4 Virgin Music
  • 4.3.5 General Retailers: Wal-Mart Music Downloads
  • 4.3.6 Consumer Brands: Coca Cola
  • 4.3.7 Event Organisers
  • 4.3.8 Summary

5 THE RINGTONE MARKET

• 5.1 Erosion of The Ringtone Premium
  • 5.1.1 Alternative 1: Use a Digital Song Purchased From an Online Store
    • Situation 1: Customer goes looking for a specific ringtone
    • Situation 2: Customer wants to use already-purchased digital songs as ringtones
    • Situation 3: Customer uses mobile to access an online digital music store directly
    • Situation 4: Operators\' bespoke digital music stores
  • 5.1.2 Alternative 2: Visit Online Store to Buy a Ringtone
    • Possible Service Implementation
    • Pricing
• 5.2 Pricing
• 5.3 Changes in the Ringtone Value Chain

6 DIGITAL MUSIC SERVICES: ONLINE

• 6.1 Apple Computer
  • 6.1.1 iTunes
    • Sync With the iPod
    • Importing Windows WMA Song Files
    • Party Shuffle
    • CD Jewel Case Inserts
  • 6.1.2 iTunes Music Store (iTMS)
    • User Experience
    • Key Features
    • Music Videos
    • Movie Trailers
    • Audiobooks
    • Radio Stations
    • Value-Added Information and Features
    • iMix
    • Usage Restrictions
    • Catalog
    • Payment
    • New Updates: Direct Marketing
    • Additional Features of the Music Store
  • 6.1.3 Accessories
  • 6.1.4 Peripherals
  • 6.1.5 iPod
    • Hard Disc Drive Storage Technology
    • Future Evolution: Enabling Technology
    • Possible Product Line Extensions
    • Personal Stereo Products
    • Home Entertainment Products
    • iMac G5: Analysis and Implications (Update 2 September 2004)
  • 6.1.6 Summary
• 6.2 Microsoft
  • 6.2.1 Platform Licensing or Retail Services?
  • 6.2.2 Windows Media DRM10 (WM DRM10)
    • Outline Technical Description - WM DRM10
    • System Operation and Terminology
    • Key Licensing Features: WM DRM10
    • Protected Live Streaming
    • Superdistribution
    • Time-based Playback
    • Play Counter
    • Portable Device Transfer
    • Copy Limits
    • CD Burning
    • Different Licenses for the Same File
    • Discussion: Comparison With Mobile-Focussed DRM Solutions
  • 6.2.3 Digital Music Jukebox: Windows Media Player 9
  • 6.2.4 Digital Music Jukebox: Windows Media Player 10 - Beta (WMP10b)
    • Device Synchronisation
    • Digital Media Mall
    • Analysis Microsoft Digital Media Mall (DMM)
    • Music Search
    • Music Search: The Bigger Picture
    • Reduced Entry Barriers
• 6.3 Sony
  • 6.3.1 Online Store: Sony Connect
  • 6.3.2 Jukebox: SonicStage
  • 6.3.3 Usage Restrictions
  • 6.3.4 Devices
    • MiniDisc (MD) Products
    • High Capacity MiniDisc (Hi-MD) Products
    • FLASH Products
    • HDD Products
    • Portable Media Players
    • Digital Music Players
  • 6.3.5 Supplementary Services
    • Music Radio Services
    • Movie Downloads
  • 6.3.6 Mobile Phones
  • 6.3.7 Discussion : Why MiniDisc?
    • The History of the MiniDisc
    • Deciding on a Device Strategy for the Connect Music Store
• 6.4 Hewlett Packard
  • 6.4.1 iPod
  • 6.4.2 iTunes
  • 6.4.3 Device Portfolio
• 6.5 Napster
  • 6.5.1 Business Analysis
  • 6.5.2 Marketing
  • 6.5.3 Service Outline
    • Usage Restrictions
    • General Comments
• 6.6 Loudeye
  • 6.6.1 The Digital Music Platform Business
  • 6.6.2 Mobile Music Platform: Nokia Deal
    • Marketing Strategy
    • Technical Solution
  • 6.6.3 Other European Digital Music Platform Providers
• 6.7 Real Networks
  • 6.7.1 Rational for Inclusion
  • 6.7.2 Current Business Focus
  • 6.7.3 Importance of Subscription Services
  • 6.7.4 Review of Music Services
    • Subscription Music Service: RealRhapsody
    • Subscription-based Streaming Music Radio Service: RadioPass
    • Analysis: Extension to Mobile
    • Subscription-based Streaming Music Video Services
    • Digital Downloads: RealPlayer Music Store
  • 6.7.5 RealPlayer 10 (RP10)
  • 6.7.6 Harmony
    • History and Rationale for Harmony
    • Analysis
    • Legal Challenge
    • Licensing of Harmony
    • Backwards Compatibility
    • A Zero Sum Game: Apple\'s Loss = Real Networks Gain
    • Outline Operation
    • Significance for the Mobile Operators and Third Party Service Providers
  • 6.7.7 Helix DRM
  • 6.7.8 Mobile Offering: Helix Mobile Platform
    • Platform Description
    • Helix Mobile Producer
    • Helix Universal Server - Mobile
    • Helix Universal Gateway - Mobile
    • RealPlayer Mobile
    • Current Position in the Mobile Media Market
• 6.8 MusicMatch
  • 6.8.1 Digital Music Jukebox - MusicMatch Jukebox
    • Device Compatibility
    • Portable Devices: Song Transfer and Synchronisation
  • 6.8.2 Online Digital Music Store - MusicMatch Downloads
  • 6.8.3 Internet Radio - MusicMatch MX
    • Genre Radio Stations
    • Artist OnDemand Radio
  • 6.8.4 Marketing
    • Shipping Player with PCs and Smartphones
    • Purchasing Music

7 MARKETING: PROMOTION AND BRANDING

• 7.1 The Role of Branding in Digital Music
  • 7.1.1 Apple iPod
  • 7.1.2 iPod: Brand Leverage by Others
• 7.2 Promotion
• 7.3 Competitive Analysis
  • 7.3.1 Brand Extension: Strategies Used in Other Industries
    • Alcoholic Beverages
    • Soft Drinks
    • Software
  • 7.3.2 Brand Extension: Four Strategies Being Used in the Mobile Industry
  • 7.3.3 Virgin Group
  • 7.3.4 Nokia
  • 7.3.5 Mobile Network Operators
    • Mobile Operator Brand Development
    • McDonald\'s
    • Branding a MNO-Provided Digital Music Service: The Options
    • Summary

8 DIGITAL MUSIC SERVICES: MOBILE OPERATORS

• 8.1 MMO2: O2 Music
  • 8.1.1 Technology
  • 8.1.2 Service Outline
  • 8.1.3 Service Test Methodology
  • 8.1.4 Browsing
  • 8.1.5 Song Downloads
  • 8.1.6 Audio Compression
  • 8.1.7 Music Management
  • 8.1.8 Usage Restrictions
  • 8.1.9 Pricing
  • 8.1.10 Error Messages
• 8.2 Chaoticom
  • 8.2.1 Orange (UK) Implementation
    • Service Outline
    • Player Download Process
    • Browsing Performance
    • Catalogue Depth
    • Previewing and Downloading Songs
    • Usage Restrictions
    • Pricing
  • 8.2.2 Service Description Eurotel Czech Republic
    • Pricing
    • Application Download
• 8.3 AT&T Wireless

9 MOBILE PREMIUM

• 9.1 Argument 1: The Intrinsic Mobile Premium
  • 9.1.1 The Human Communication Process
    • Voice Calling
    • Text Messaging
    • Mobile Premium: Test Criteria
  • 9.1.2 The Music Purchase Process
    • Customer Awareness
    • Initial Awareness
    • Developing Interest
    • Purchase
    • Effecting The Purchase
    • Product Delivery
    • Consumption
  • 9.1.3 Other Factors
• 9.2 Argument 2: No Need for a Separate Player
  • 9.2.1 The Argument
  • 9.2.2 Analysis
    • Apples With Apples
    • Shifting Value Benefits Between Songs and Devices
    • Device Performance and Service Features
• 9.3 Summary

10 MOBILE OPERATOR PORTALS: MUSIC CONTENT

• 10.1 Events
  • 10.1.1 Information
  • 10.1.2 Ticket Purchase
    • SMS-Based Systems
    • MMS-Based Systems
• 10.2 Mobile Shop: CDs
  • 10.2.1 Requirement
  • 10.2.2 Summary
• 10.3 Video Material
  • 10.3.1 3
    • Quality
    • Usage Rights
  • 10.3.2 Orange
  • 10.3.3 Pricing
• 10.4 Information
  • 10.4.1 Album Reviews
  • 10.4.2 Alerts
    • Current Activity
    • Potential Opportunities
  • 10.4.3 News
    • Music News
    • Pay-as-you-go News
    • Text and Picture
    • MMS-based Slide Show Alerts
  • 10.4.4 Interaction
• 10.5 Magazines
  • 10.5.1 The Business Case
  • 10.5.2 Customer Proposition
    • Quality: Rendering
    • Magazine Reading Process
    • Leverage of Channel-Specific Attributes
    • Usage Environment
  • 10.5.3 User Experience
  • 10.5.4 Summary
• 10.6 Artist Sites
  • 10.6.1 Introduction
  • 10.6.2 Results of Comparative Tests
  • 10.6.3 Mobile Interent: Avril Lavigne Website Functionality
  • 10.6.4 Music: Streaming and Downloads
  • 10.6.5 Music Videos: Streaming and Downloads
  • 10.6.6 Summary

11 RADIO

• 11.1 Introduction
• 11.2 Premium Music Radio Services
  • 11.2.1 Key Differences: Commercial Radio Vs. Premium Music Radio Services
  • 11.2.2 Commercial Radio and Premium Music Radio: Competitors?
  • 11.2.3 Sony StreamMan
    • Outline Service Description
    • Billing and Pricing
    • Benchmarking with Online Alternatives
    • GPRS Usage-based Tarrifing
    • Mobile Premium
    • Product Enhancements
    • Discussion: Possible Future Developments
  • 11.2.4 Other Developments in Premium Radio Services
    • Premium Radio Services: Transfer to Portable Devices Within the Home
    • Transfer of Vanilla Radio Stations
    • Transfer of Personalised Music Radio Stations/Playlists
    • Additional Evolution Paths
• 11.3 Digital Radio (DAB)
  • 11.3.1 Introduction
  • 11.3.2 Current Status
    • Europe
    • DAB: A Clear Growth Market
    • DAB: A Clear Early-Stage Market
    • Leading Receivers: Enabling Future Purchase of Digital Music
    • Comparison With Other Markets: FM Receivers and Smartphones
    • International Markets
  • 11.3.3 Outline Description: DAB
    • Spectrum and Licensing
    • Available Capacity and Station Choices
    • Programme Associated Data
  • 11.3.4 Analysis: The Role of Mobile Phones
    • Selling Digital Music
    • Premium Services
    • Using Digital Radio as a Means to Boost Ad Revenues
    • Other Considerations for DAB Stations
    • Conclusion
• 11.4 Enhanced Analogue FM Radio
  • 11.4.1 GWR \'Hear it Buy it Burn it\'
    • Service Description
  • 11.4.2 Future Developments
    • Put Affiliated Stations on the Internet
    • Porting the Service Concept to Mobile Phones
    • Hear it Buy it Burn it on Mobile Phones: Avoiding GPRS Charges
  • 11.4.3 Nokia: Visual Radio
    • Outline Description
    • Usage Scenarios and Cost Implications
    • Comparative Analysis: DAB and Visual Radio
  • 11.4.4 Sony: Any Music

12 MOBILE INTERNET

• 12.1 Introduction
• 12.1.1 Accessing Existing Web Resources
• 12.1.2 Third Party Services
• 12.1.3 Not More Hype!
• 12.2 Enabling Factors
• 12.2.1 Mobile Phone Operating Systems
• Accessing Existing Web Resources
• Enabling Technology
• Operating Systems Standards
• 12.2.2 Internet Search Tools
• 12.2.3 Internet Browsers
• 12.2.4 Media Players
• 12.2.5 Mobile Broadband 3G
• 12.2.6 Data Tariffing
• 12.2.7 User Interface: Displays and Data Entry
• Display Size
• Data Entry
• 12.2.8 Phone Technology: Memory and Processor Power
• 12.2.9 Smartphone Penetration
• 12.3 Market Timing
• 12.4 Implications for Mobile and Music Industry Executives

13 THE ROLE OF STANDARDS IN DIGITAL MUSIC

• 13.1 Industry Needs: Supply-side Drivers
• 13.2 Consumer Needs: Demand-side Drivers
• 13.3 Self Interest of Industry Players
  • 13.3.1 Company Interests Vs. Consumer Interests
    • Toner Cartridges
    • Printer Driver Software
    • Console Games
  • 13.3.2 Implications for Digital Music
    • Rival Platforms
    • Platform Convergence
• 13.4 Regulatory Intervention
  • 13.4.1 EC Copyright Directive
    • No Big Issues
    • Copyright Control Technology Circumvention
  • 13.4.2 Collective Licensing of Rights Relating to Digital Media
• 13.5 Summary
  • 13.5.1 Wider Digital Music Market
  • 13.5.2 Mobile Channel
• 13.6 Emergence of a Digital Music \'Standard\'?
  • 13.6.1 The DRM Quagmire
  • 13.6.2 Rival Technolgy Platforms
  • 13.6.3 Real Networks
  • 13.6.4 Apple Computer
  • 13.6.5 Sony Corporation
  • 13.6.6 Microsoft
• 13.7 Consumer View: Meaning of Digital Music Standards
  • 13.7.1 Music Accessibility
    • Focus on a Niche
    • Provide Music Search Features
  • 13.7.2 Format Compatibility
  • 13.7.3 Device Interchangability

14 THE WILD CARD: COLLECTIVE LICENSING

• 14.1 Introduction
• 14.2 Arguments For and Against
• 14.3 Implementation Issues
  • 14.3.1 Infrastructure
  • 14.3.2 Copyright and Related Laws
  • 14.3.3 Collecting Societies
  • 14.3.4 Critical Mass
  • 14.3.5 Tax Laws
• 14.4 Market Developments
  • 14.4.1 Brazil
  • 14.4.2 Europe
• 14.5 Making it Happen: Action Plan

15 MARKET FORECAST: DIGITAL MUSIC

• 15.1 Current Status
  • 15.1.1 The U.S.
  • 15.1.2 Europe
• 15.2 Overall Market Size
  • 15.2.1 Industry Maturity
    • Format Replacement
    • Interesting Music
    • Improved Format
    • Digital Music
    • Criteria
    • Piracy and Illegitimate Downloads
    • Competition From Other Forms of Entertainment
    • Economic Fundamentals
  • 15.2.2 Demand: The Desire to Listen to Music
  • 15.2.3 Supply: Availability of Interesting Music
    • More Acts and More Songs: Effect of Digitisation and the Internet
    • Tools to Help Creative Process: Creative Commons
    • Music Search
    • Adoption by Intermediaries
    • Music Industry MO
    • Sampling
    • Product Formatting
  • 15.2.4 Leakage
  • 15.2.5 Pricing
  • 15.2.6 Structural Changes in The Music Industry
  • 15.2.7 Summary
• 15.3 Historic Adoption: Previous Recorded Music Formats
• 15.4 Future Adoption: Digital Music
  • 15.4.1 Consumer Proposition
  • 15.4.2 Consumer Behaviour
  • 15.4.3 Fundamental Factors
  • 15.4.4 Legacy factors
    • Content
    • Artist Marketing
    • Manufacturing
    • Distribution and Retail
    • Cross Industry Support
    • Standards: Device and Format Plug and Play
    • Industry MO
  • 15.4.5 Format-Specific Factors
    • Fixed Broadband Penetration
    • Realtones
    • Various Mobile Options
• 15.5 Digital Music Forecast
• 15.6 Channel Mix
  • 15.6.1 Today: Physical Format Retail Channels
  • 15.6.2 Future: Digital Music Retail Channels
    • Music Retailing Moves into the Home
    • Convergence
    • Device Interaction
    • Channel Separation
    • Channel Separation: Sales and Product Delivery
  • 15.6.3 Forecast: Channel Mix

16 MARKET FORECAST: 3G (WCDMA)

• 16.1 Status of Current 3G Deployments
• 16.2 3G Rollout Scenarios
  • 16.2.1 Scenario 1: Consumer Pull
  • 16.2.2 Scenario 2: Operator Push
• 16.3 Detailed Analysis - Scenario 1: Consumer Pull
  • 16.3.1 Key Success Factors Affecting 3G Rollouts
  • 16.3.2 Supply Side Factors
    • Service Coverage
    • Handset Maturity
  • 16.3.3 Demand Side Factors
    • Customer Proposition
    • End User Pricing
  • 16.3.4 Summary
• 16.4 Detailed Analysis - Scenario 2: Operator Push
• 16.5 Conclusion

17 APPENDIX

• 17.1 Download Speed: 2.5G - GPRS
  • 17.1.1 Coding Scheme
  • 17.1.2 Handset Class (GPRS Class)
  • 17.1.3 Timeslot Allocation (Multislot Class)
  • 17.1.4 Traffic Load Requirement
  • 17.1.5 Summary What it Means
• 17.2 Network Capacity
  • 17.2.1 Offered Load
  • 17.2.2 Available Network Capacity
  • 17.2.3 Conclusion