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SUMMARY
Wireless and Mobile Communications: Market Analysis Wireless instant messaging (IM) is poised torapidly emerge as a leading approach to wireless messaging Substantially different from its closecousin, short messaging service (SMS), IM maps more closely to the rhythm of human conversation thanother forms of text messaging and is ideally suited to the wireless environment, especially amongyouths and mobile professionals Continued growth of consumer and business IM over desktop PCs andthe emergence of local handset and converged device IM applications will largely drive the adoptionof wireless IM moving forward However, wireless IM faces several substantial market inhibitors,including the lack of IM interoperability among wireless operators and IM portals, wireless devicetext entry constraints, security and service quality concerns, and competing protocols Nevertheless,IDC estimates that the number of wireless IM subscribers will rise from 123 million this year toover 37 million by 2008, while revenue should more than triple to nearly $12 billion over the sametime period IDC further notes the following: - The major IM portals (AOL, MSN, Yahoo!, and to a lesser extent ICQ) play a central role in thedomestic wireless IM market While the national wireless carriers and device manufacturers are alsocentral to wireless IMs value proposition, the aggressiveness with which the major IM portalspursue wireless IM will largely determine wireless IM adoption in the short term, leading tosignificant market complexity
- Infrastructure gateways that provide a conduit between mobile protocols and the Web-orientedproprietary protocols of the major IM portal communities are likely to play an important role inmarket evolution By partnering with gateway "middleware" providers (that can help addressbilling, reporting, revenue sharing, handset upgrade, and other issues) rather than buildingcapital-intensive direct connectivity with the IM portals, carriers can focus more on their corecompetencies
- The WAP- and SMS-oriented approach to wireless IM that has been the predominant model to datehas not met with great success Raising awareness about the local IM client application approach(typified by Wireless Village) and its inherent advantages is likely to entice many users back intothe wireless IM fold Youth and young adult users are particularly receptive to both IM and SMS asfun wireless messaging applications Providers should incorporate the aspect of fun into consumermarketing, along with efficiency and time-saving value propositions Global Headquarters: 5 SpeenStreet Framingham, MA 01701 USA P5088728200 F5089354015 wwwidccom
TABLE OF CONTENTS
In This Study Methodology Situation Overview Introduction Key Market Trends, Drivers, and Inhibitors Future Outlook Forecast and Assumptions Essential Guidance Actions to Consider Learn More Related Research Definitions LIST OF TABLES- Key Forecast Assumptions for the US Wireless Market, 20042008
- US Wireless Subscribers, 20032008
- US Wireless IM Subscribers, 20032008
- US Wireless IM Subscriber Additions, 20032008
- US Average Number of Wireless IMs per Subscriber per Month, 20032008
- US Average Monthly Wireless IM Revenue per Subscriber per Month, 20032008
- US Wireless IMs, 20032008
- US Total Wireless IM Revenue, 20032008
LIST OF FIGURES- Relating the IM and SMS Ecosystems
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