Japan Broadband Services 2004-2008 Forecast

SUMMARY

This IDC study examines the recent trends in the Japan broadband access services market and looks at its impact in 2005 and beyond. The market forecast from Japan Broadband Services 2004-2008 Forecast Update: 2003 Year-End Review (April 2004, IDC #JP200503L) is revised and updated.

"The market is still overwhelmingly dominated by ADSL, but the rate of increase has been dropping steadily throughout 2004 and will continue to decline in the years ahead. FTTH services, on the other hand, are poised to enter a period of high growth starting in 2006," observes Daniel Newman, market analyst, Japan Telecommunications Services, IDC Japan. "ISPs are caught in a bind where broadband access providers are obtaining the lion's share of end-user revenues and are looking for value-added services that will enable them to boost ARPU. Nevertheless, IDC anticipates that the power will continue to reside with the access providers, who continue to provide technical innovations."

TABLE OF CONTENTS

• Table of Contents
• IDC Opinion
• In This Study
  • Methodology
  • Executive Summary
• Situation Overview
  • Introduction
    • Narrowband and Broadband
    • Figure: Monthly Change in Dial-Up and Broadband Subscribers, January-September 2004 (Thousand)
    • Figure: Monthly Growth Rate for Dial-Up and Broadband Subscribers, January-September 2004 (%)
    • Figure: Internet Market Composition, September 2003 and September 2004 (%)
    • Figure: Monthly Change in Broadband Subscribers by Technology, January-September 2004 (Thousand)
    • Figure: Monthly Composition of New Broadband Subscribers by Technology, January and September 2004
    • Figure: Broadband Plans for Dial-Up and ISDN Consumer Subscribers (%)
    • Figure: Reasons for Considering Switch to Broadband (%)
    • Figure: Reasons Why Not Interested in Broadband (%)
    • ADSL
    • Figure: Quarterly Change in ADSL Subscribers, 4Q01-3Q04
    • Figure: Share of ADSL Quarterly New Adds, 1Q04 and 3Q04
    • Figure: ADSL Market Share, September 2004
    • FTTH
    • Figure: FTTH Market Share, September 2004 (%)
    • Table: Usen Monthly Gains in Multidwelling Units (MDUs), March-September 2004
• Future Outlook
  • Forecast and Assumptions
  • Table: Key Forecast Assumptions for Japan Broadband Services, 2004-2008
  • Table: Japan Broadband Subscribers, 2003-2008 (Thousand)
  • Table: Average Monthly Gains in Japan Broadband Subscribers, 2003-2008 (Thousand)
  • Table: Japan Broadband Market Composition, 2003-2008 (%)
  • Table: Japan Broadband Penetration Rates, 2003-2008 (%)
  • Figure: Change in ARPU with Shift to Broadband
• Essential Guidance
  • Actions to Consider
• Learn More
  • Related Research
  • Synopsis