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SUMMARY
This IDC study forecasts the U.S. wireless commercial video and television
market for 2005-2009. Wireless commercial video and television, as distinct
from the user-created video content market, has generated an astounding amount
of interest - and hype - in the past year. From the launch of goTV and MobiTV
on 2.5G cellular networks, to Verizon Wireless' launch of VCAST on 3G, to the
noncellular multicast/broadcast networks anticipated in late 2006, this highly
complex market is sure to remain among the most dynamic and compelling services
delivered to wireless subscribers and customers in the years ahead.
Based on customer and subscriber survey data as well as in-depth discussions
with key network operators, infrastructure providers, handset manufacturers,
and content providers, this forecast assesses the demand for wireless
commercial video and television services through 2009 in terms of several key
metrics: subscribers and "Ã la carte" customers, consumption (based on total
minutes consumed per year and per subscriber/customer), and revenue. Extensive
trend analysis and a summary of current carrier offerings are included.
"Although there are substantial challenges facing the commercial video and
television marketplace from a network, handset, and content perspective, which
will serve to keep penetration levels relatively low, we anticipate that annual
revenue will still top the $3 billion mark by 2009," said Lewis Ward, senior
research analyst in IDC's Wireless and Mobile Communications program. "With an
ARPU approaching $10 per subscriber per month by that point, commercial video
and television may well emerge as the single largest cell phone-oriented ARPU
driver among consumers outside of voice."
TABLE OF CONTENTS
- Table of Contents
- IDC Opinion
- In This Study
- Situation Overview
- Introduction
- Figure: U.S. Wireless Commercial Video Market Evolution
- Mobile Video and TV Ecosystem Constituents
- User Demand
- Table: U.S. Wireless Data User Interest and Usage Levels, 1Q04
- Today's User Experience: Streaming Versus Downloading
- Table: Streaming Versus Downloading
- Device Availability and Penetration
- Device Software, User Interface, and DRM
- 2.5G and 3G Wireless Video and TV Delivery
- Figure: 2.5G and 3G Unicast Video/TV Delivery
- Figure: Wireless Video/TV Back Channel
- Anticipated Video and TV Broadcasting/Multicasting Networks
- Figure: Broadcast and Multicast Video/TV Delivery
- Table: Crown Castle Mobile Media Versus MediaFLO USA
- Future Outlook
- Forecast and Assumptions
- Table: Key Forecast Assumptions for the U.S. Wireless Commercial Video and Television Market, 2005-2009
- Table: U.S. Wireless Subscribers and Commercial Video/TV Customers and Subscribers by Delivery Model, 2004-2009 (M)
- Table: U.S. Wireless Commercial Video/TV Minutes Consumed by Delivery Model, 2004-2009 (M)
- Table: U.S. Wireless Commercial Video/TV Revenue by Delivery Model, 2004-2009 ($M)
- Carrier Offerings
- Sprint PCS
- Verizon Wireless
- Cingular
- T-Mobile USA
- Western Wireless (ALLTEL)
- Competing Noncellular Devices and Approaches
- Essential Guidance
- Learn More
- Related Research
- Definitions
- Synopsis
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