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SUMMARY
Emerging Markets (Part 2) highlights Eastern Europe, Middle East, Africa and
Latin America data, commentary and country-level forecasts. In depth case
studies include a look at a who's who in the market; coverage and investment
and subscription and KPI trends.
Key Coverage
- Leading developing markets in EMEA and Latin America:
- Brazil
- Colombia
- Democratic Republic of Congo
- Egypt
- Nigeria
- Russia
- Saudi Arabia
- Liberalisation and competition in the market
- Availability of accessible and flexible tariff plans
- Mobile penetration rates
- Level of overall economic development in key markets
Market Data
- KPI data
- Investor breakdown
- Country specific case studies
- A who's who in the market
Forecasts
This report includes country-level cellular subscription forecasts
Key Issues Addressed
- Which factors are the most important in driving mobile subscription growth
in emerging markets?
- To what extent does the expansion of population coverage aid subscription
growth?
- Where are operators pushing prepaid packages that encourage users to take
out multiple subscriptions?
- What impact is subscription growth having on ARPU?
- What do current mobile data usage trends indicate about the demand for 3G
services in emerging markets?
Additional information includes:
- Handsets: comment on handset pricing and the most popular brands in
the market
- 3G and data: when the 3G licences are expected to be issued and
what impact this is likely to have on competition and how the current usage of
data services indicate the potential demand of 3G.
Countries / Sectors / Companies Covered
- Brazil
- Columbia
- Democratic Republic of Congo
- Egypt
- Nigeria
- Russia
- Saudi Arabia
Who should read this report
- Operators
- Vendors
- Financial Institutions
- Government
- Regulators
TABLE OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER 1
- INTRODUCTION
- Figure 1.1: Leading developing markets in Eastern Europe, the Middle
East, Africa and Latin America
CHAPTER 2
- BRAZIL
- Factors stimulating growth
- Four or five telecoms groups emerging as dominant players
- Figure 2.1: Brazilian cellular operators
- Vivo Participacoes
- Telecom Americas (Claro)
- Telemig Holdings
- TIM Brasil Participacoes
- Telemar
- CTBC Celular and Sercomtel
- Telephony penetration varies significantly among diverse regions
- Figure 2.2: Fixed versus mobile subscriptions, 2000-2005
- Figure 2.3: Mobile coverage of Brazil's municipalities
- Growth slowing as subscriptions exceed 100 million
- Figure 2.4: Operators' customer base growth, 3Q04-3Q06
- Figure 2.5: Brazil mobile subscription forecasts
- Figure 2.6: Brazilian mobile operators' ARPU
- New licences set to usher in 3G era
CHAPTER 3
- COLOMBIA
- Factors stimulating growth
- Three foreign investors stoke competition in Colombia
- Operators invest in mobile network expansion
- Subscription growth passes its peak
- Figure 3.1: Annual net additions
- Figure 3.2: Mobile operators' market shares
- Figure 3.3: Prepaid as percentage of total
- Handset subsidies not forecast to fall in the short term
- Figure 3.4: Price ranges and market shares of terminals offered
- Figure 3.5: Average prices of terminals
- ARPU continues to fall
- Revenues from content services grow but 3G not yet on the agenda
- Figure 3.6: Frequency bands reserved
CHAPTER 4
- DEMOCRAIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO(DRC )
- Factors stimulating growth
- All major African investors represented in the DRC
- Figure 4.1: Mobile market share in DRC - September 2006
- Figure 4.2: Coverage and capacity by operator, March 2006
- Net additions forecast to peak in 2007
- Figure 4.3: DRC mobile penetration and subscriptions
- Handset market driven by the informal sector
- Figure 4.4: DRC - Selected handset prices
- Tough competition results in high churn rates
- Figure 4.5: Operator ARPU in the DRC
- Figure 4.6: Operators' prices per minute
- Figure 4.7: Vodacom DRC - KPIs
- What room for data beyond SMS?
- Outlook
CHAPTER 5
- EGYPT
- Factors stimulating growth
- Foreign investors build strong partnerships in Egypt
- Figure 5.1: Structure of ECMS
- Investment in GSM boosts coverage
- Operators lower SIM-card and top-up prices to boost subscriptions
- Figure 5.2: Egyptian mobile market forecast growth 2006-2011
- Figure 5.3: Net additions, 2005 and 1H06
- ARPU declines as low-end prepaid subscriptions boom
- Figure 5.4: ARPU vs. penetration
- Legitimate sales channels dominate the handset market
- Data uptake is low, dampening 3G prospects
- Outlook
CHAPTER 6
- NIGERIA
- Factors stimulating growth
- International players investing in Nigeria
- Mobile industry dwarfs fixed sector as mobile coverage expands
- Figure 6.1: Performance of the Nigerian telecoms industry
- Figure 6.2: Telephone penetration in Nigeria (actual and forecast)
- Figure 6.3: Mobile network coverage in Nigeria
- Figure 6.4: Fixed network coverage in Nigeria
- Figure 6.5: Nigeria telecoms market - revenues and capex
- MTN and Globacom lead subscription growth
- Figure 6.6: Nigeria mobile subscriptions (actual and forecast)
- Figure 6.7: Nigeria mobile operators' market share (actual and forecast)
- Grey market dominates handset sales
- Figure 6.8: Nigerian handset prices and usage
- ARPU is steadily falling
- Conclusion
CHAPTER 7
- RUSSIA
- Factors stimulating growth
- Figure 7.1: Russian fixed-line versus mobile penetration
- Russia's key players set sights further afield
- Regional players maintain significant role in market
- Multiple SIMs inflate subscription base
- ARPU plummets as SIM card penetration soars
- Figure 7.2: Total revenues rise as ARPU plummets
- Regional expansion almost complete
- Figure 7.3: Russia's regional expansion
- The future of 3G in Russia
- Transformation of handset market
- Figure 7.4: Price segmentation of the Russian handset market, 2004
versus 2005
- Russia breaking the 'BRIC' mould
CHAPTER 8
- SAUDI ARABIA
- Factors stimulating growth
- Etisalat holds its own against state-backed incumbent
- Coverage reaches 95% of the population
- Subscriptions boom fuelled by competition
- Figure 8.1: Subscriptions and penetration in Saudi Arabia compared with
the Middle East region
- Figure 8.2: Comparison of the operators' prepaid packages
- Figure 8.3: ARPU comparison in the Gulf States
- Figure 8.4: Revenues and ARPU for the cellular and iDEN operators
- WCDMA proves popular despite low data usage
- Figure 8.5: Operators' GPRS subscribers
- Figure 8.6: Operators' SMS traffic
- Outlook
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