Printed & Organic Electronics Forecasts, Players & Opportunities 2008-2028

SUMMARY

Unique new report giving the big picture

This report includes forecasts of markets by geographical region, component, organics versus inorganic, flexible/conformal and many other parameters. Realistic timescales and the emergence of new products are given, as are impediments and opportunities for the years to come. Statistics for activity in East Asia is given. What will be the split between organic, inorganic and composite solutions by year? It is all here, with activities of over 600 companies listed.

2008 to 2028 market size

IDTechEx expect the spend on printed and thin film electronics beyond conventional silicon to be $1.58 Billion this year. The majority of this is for OLED display panels ($0.69 Billion) which is the value of the panel and not the final device. Virtually all of this is non printed and on glass. Second largest by value is photovoltaics (PV) beyond conventional crystalline and amorphous silicon, accounting for $0.4 Billion. This is not organic PV however, which is still some time away from commercialization, but inorganic technologies such as CIGS and CdTe devices. For example, First Solar has an order book exceeding $2 Billion for CdTe PV devices which they will be delivering over several years. Third largest is not a specific product, but a value for inks for $0.21 Billion, which are used for multiple different applications such as interconnects for switches, membrane keyboards, windscreen heaters. We give the ink value only here rather than the value of the product because the products are so diverse in scope. Then we have the market for sensors, at $0.11 Billion, which are printed sensors used for glucose meters - approximately 2.2 billion are sold each year. $50 Million will be spend on electroluminescent displays and $48 Million on electrophoretic displays (the value of the front plane of the display itself rather than the end device).

On the other hand, we see the market for logic and memory beyond conventional silicon to be just $10 Million this year - and virtually all of that is samples and some services with some commercial sales beginning towards the end of the year from Kovio, PolyIC and PolymerVision, for example.

In particular, the following components are addressed, and for each one twenty year forecasts are given, along with companies and their activities, case studies, impediments to commercialization and timescales.

• Logic
• Memory
• OLED display
• OLED Billboard
• OLED light
• Electrophoretic
• Electrochromic
• Electroluminescent
• Other display (electrowetting, thin film LED, etc)
• Battery
• Photovoltaics
• Sensor etc
• Conductors (ink only)
• Other

TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

1. INTRODUCTION

• 1.2. Twenty year forecasts of unusual breadth
• 1.3. Terminology and definitions
• 1.4. The global electronics industry and GDP
• 1.5. Geographical differences
• 1.6. Importance of China
• 1.7. The electronics industry
• 1.8. Scope for printed electronics and electrics
• 1.9. There is a bigger picture
• 1.10. Statistics for materials running out
• 1.11. Displays are the main sector for now
• 1.12. Surprisingly poor progress with low cost electronics so far
• 1.13. Silicon chips hit the buffers, printed electronics has a clear run?
• 1.14. Printed electronics for smart packaging
• 1.15. Driving forces for disposable electronics
• 1.16. Balance of reporting on printed and organic electronics
• 1.17. Inorganic patterning shows the way
• 1.18. Great uncertainty
• 1.19. Challenging conventional electronics
• 1.20. Flexible is a Big Market - Bendable is Not
• 1.21. Assumptions for our forecasts

2. LOGIC AND MEMORY

• 2.1. Logic and Memory Market Forecasts 2008-2028
  • 2.1.1. Rigid and flexible substrate forecasts
• 2.2. Impact on silicon
• 2.3. Transistor design
  • 2.3.2. New TFT geometry
  • 2.3.3. Advantages of printed and thin film transistors and memory vs traditional silicon
  • 2.3.4. The main options for the printed semiconductor
  • 2.3.5. Benefits and applications envisaged for TFTCs in general
  • 2.3.6. Development path
  • 2.3.7. Obtaining higher frequency performance
  • 2.3.8. Breakthrough in printed inorganic performance in 2007 from Kovio
  • 2.3.9. Choice of printing technologies
  • 2.3.10. Company strategy and value chain
• 2.4. Memory
• 2.5. RFID
  • 2.5.1. Market for RFID
  • 2.5.2. Ultimate potential for highest volume RFID
  • 2.5.3. Penetration of chipless/printed RFID

3. DISPLAYS

• 3.1. Market drivers
• 3.2. OLEDs as displays for electronic products
  • 3.2.2. Main uses
  • 3.2.3. OLED market forecasts 2008-2028
• 3.3. OLEDs for billboard, posters, signage
  • 3.3.1. Areas of signage etc
  • 3.3.2. Main investment in East Asia
  • 3.3.3. Unique problems mean delayed takeoff
  • 3.3.4. Different competition vs electronic displays
  • 3.3.5. Challenges outdoors
  • 3.3.6. Market forecast for OLED billboard displays
• 3.4. Electrophoretic
  • 3.4.2. Electrophoretic displays market forecasts 2008-2028
• 3.5. Electrochromic
  • 3.5.2. Electrochromic displays market forecasts 2008-2028
• 3.6. AC Electroluminescent
  • 3.6.2. Electroluminescent displays market forecasts 2008 2028
• 3.7. Other display technologies
  • 3.7.1. Thermochromic
  • 3.7.2. Electrowetted displays
  • 3.7.3. Electrochemical displays on paper
  • 3.7.4. Other displays market size 2008-2028

4. LIGHTING

• 4.1. Significance of Lighting and challenges
• 4.2. Lighting forecasts and timeline
• 4.3. General illumination market
• 4.4. Value Chain and examples of OLED lighting
• 4.5. Stand alone equipment
• 4.6. Primary categories of lighting compared with emerging OLED capability
• 4.7. LEDs
• 4.8. AC electroluminescent lighting
• 4.9. Where OLED lighting will be used - building and vehicle statistics

5. POWER

• 5.1. Photovoltaics
  • 5.1.1. Photovoltaics beyond silicon
  • 5.1.2. Comparison of technologies
  • 5.1.3. Trends by territory
• 5.2. Photovoltaics Forecasts
• 5.3. Recent company progress in photovoltaics
  • 5.3.1. Investing in the metals that will be needed
  • 5.3.2. Progress with non silicon photovoltaics in Europe
• 5.4. Batteries
  • 5.4.1. Importance of laminar batteries
  • 5.4.2. Button batteries vs laminar batteries
  • 5.4.3. Choices of laminar battery
  • 5.4.4. Applications of laminar batteries
  • 5.4.5. Leeds Lithium Power
  • 5.4.6. Infinite Power Solutions
  • 5.4.7. Solicore, USA
  • 5.4.8. SCI Engineered Materials, USA
  • 5.4.9. Power Paper
  • 5.4.10. Thin Battery Technologies
  • 5.4.11. Example - VoltaFlex
  • 5.4.12. Printed battery research
• 5.5. Printed batteries forecasts 2008-2028
• 5.6. Fuel cells

6. SENSORS AND OTHER ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS

• 6.1. General situation and examples
• 6.2. Photodetector arrays
  • 6.2.1. Printed flexible scanners
  • 6.2.2. Nanoident - world's first printed semiconductor factory
• 6.3. Co-deposited components
• 6.4. Sensor Forecasts 2008-2028

7. MARKET BY TERRITORY, COMPONENTS, MATERIALS, OPPORTUNITIES

• 7.1. Market by territory
  • 7.1.1. Number of active organisations globally in this field
  • 7.1.2. Geographical split
  • 7.1.3. Progress in East Asia
  • 7.1.4. Giant corporations - activity in North America vs rest of world
  • 7.1.5. North America, East Asia and Europe - different priorities
• 7.2. The total market opportunity
• 7.3. Organic versus Inorganic
• 7.4. Printed versus non printed electronics
• 7.5. Flexible/conformal versus rigid electronics
• 7.6. Market forecasts for materials 2008-2028
• 7.7. Impact of printed electronics on conventional markets
  • 7.7.2. Impact on end-use markets
  • 7.7.3. Potential markets
• 7.8. Statistics for materials running out

8. COMPANY PROFILES

• 8.1.1. ACREO
• 8.1.2. Asahi Kasei
• 8.1.3. Asahi Glass
• 8.1.4. BASF
• 8.1.5. DaiNippon Printing
• 8.1.6. Fujifilm Dimatix
• 8.1.7. Fujitsu
• 8.1.8. HC Starck
• 8.1.9. Hewlett Packard
• 8.1.10. Holst Centre
• 8.1.11. InkTec
• 8.1.12. Kovio Inc
• 8.1.13. Merck Chemicals
• 8.1.14. Motorola
• 8.1.15. National Information Society Agency
• 8.1.16. Optomec
• 8.1.17. ORFID
• 8.1.18. Organic ID
• 8.1.19. Philips
• 8.1.20. Plastic E Print
• 8.1.21. Plastic Logic
• 8.1.22. Plextronics
• 8.1.23. PolyIC
• 8.1.24. Samsung
• 8.1.25. Semiconductor Energy Laboratory
• 8.1.26. Thin Film Electronics
• 8.1.27. Tokyo Institute of Technology
• 8.1.28. Toppan Printing
• 8.1.29. Xerox
• 8.1.30. University of Tokyo
• 8.1.31. Waseda University

APPENDIX 1: IDTECHEX PUBLICATIONS AND CONSULTANCY

APPENDIX 2: GLOSSARY

TABLES

• 1.2. Global GDP and electronics growth % by value 2003 and 2004
• 1.3. GDP growth % by territory
• 1.4. Global electronics industry by application
• 1.5. End user markets relevant to printed electronics
• 1.6. Output of indium
• 1.7. Time to run out for scarce elements used in printed electronics
• 1.8. Some of today's disposable electronics and why inorganic technology is needed to make it more saleable and useful
• 1.9. Some of the technical constraints of printed electronics and the exciting recent history of breakthroughs that give credibility to more being overcome in the next few years
• 1.10. Primary assumptions of organic electronics in full production 2008 to 2028
• 2.1. Global market for printed electronics logic and memory 2008-2028 in billions of dollars, with % printed and % flexible
• 2.2. Scope for printed TFTCs to create new markets or replace silicon chips
• 2.3. Advantages of printed and thin film transistors and memory vs traditional silicon
• 2.4. Comparison of some of the main options for the semiconductors in printed and potentially printed transistors
• 2.5. Envisaged benefits of TFTCs in RFID and other low-cost applications when compared with envisaged silicon chips
• 2.6. Overall choices of semiconductor
• 2.7. Typical carrier mobility in different potential TFTC semiconductors (actual and envisaged) vs higher mobility silicon, not printable.
• 2.8. Objectives and challenges of organisations developing printed and potentially printed transistor and/ or memory circuits and/or their materials
• 2.9. Some of the small group of contestants for large capacity printed memory.
• 2.11. Total value of tags by application 2008-2018 (US Dollar Millions)
• 2.12. Prototype 13.56 MHz RFID smart labels from reel to reel production of organic TFTCs by PolyIC
• 2.13. Choices of digital chipless RFID technologies
• 2.14. Chipless versus Chip RFID, in numbers of units (billions)
• 2.15. Market size of various chipless solutions, 2008-2018
• 3.1. Some new and established display technologies compared
• 3.2. Examples of companies developing OLEDs
• 3.3. Advantages and disadvantages of ink jet printing of OLEDs
• 3.4. Market forecasts for OLED panel displays 2008-2028
• 3.5. Comparison of the features of various technologies for advertising and signage
• 3.6. Market forecast for OLED billboard displays 2008-2028
• 3.7. Advantages and disadvantages of electrophoretic displays
• 3.8. Comparison between OLEDs and E-Ink of various parameters
• 3.9. Electrophoretic displays market forecasts 2008-2028
• 3.10. Electrochromic displays market forecasts 2008-2028
• 3.11. Electroluminescent displays market forecasts 2008-2028
• 3.12. Other displays market size 2008-2028
• 4.1. Lighting forecasts 2008-2028
• 4.2. Incandescent, fluorescent, inorganic LED and the potential performance of OLED lighting compared
• 4.3. Historical and projected sales of inorganic LED lighting 2002-2008 in billions of units
• 4.4. Dwelling stock: stock and house building, European Union, 2002
• 4.5. Global population of vehicles 1997, 2005, 2030 in millions
• 5.1. The leading photovoltaic technologies compared
• 5.2. Efficiency and commercialization dates of laminar organic, CdTe and DSSC photovoltaics
• 5.3. Performance of various types of photovoltaic cell compared
• 5.4. Some recent results for inorganic and organic-fullerine photovoltaic cells and commercialisation
• 5.5. Photovoltaics forecasts 2008-2028
• 5.6. Shapes of battery for small RFID tags advantages and disadvantages
• 5.7. Examples of suppliers of button batteries by country
• 5.8. The spectrum of choice of technologies for laminar batteries
• 5.9. Examples of potential sources of flexible thin film batteries
• 5.10. Some examples of marketing thrust for laminar batteries
• 5.11. Examples of universities and research centres developing laminar batteries
• 5.12. Batteries forecasts 2008-2028
• 6.1. Examples of companies developing organic sensors and other components and their main emphasis
• 6.2. Sensor forecasts 2008-2028
• 7.1. The market for printed and potentially printed electronics by territory in $ billion
• 7.1. Examples of giant corporations intending to make the printed and potentially printed devices with the largest market potential
• 7.2. Market forecast by component type for 2008 to 2028 in US $ billions, for printed and potentially printed electronics including organic, inorganic and composites
• 7.2. Organisations active in printed electronics in East Asia
• 7.3. Market forecasts for 2028
• 7.4. Spend on organic versus inorganic materials 2008-2028
• 7.5. Split of material types by component
• 7.6. Market value $ billions of printed versus non printed electronics 2008-2028
• 7.7. Market value $ billions of flexible/conformal versus non flexible printed electronics 2008-2028
• 7.8. Materials market forecasts 2008-2028
• 7.9. End user markets relevant to printed and potentially printed electronics
• 7.10. Output of indium
• 7.11. Time to run out for scarce elements used in printed electronics
• 8.1. Other players in the value chain

FIGURES

• 1.1. Market volume in Eur billions
• 1.2. Global electronics industry by application percentage
• 1.3. Indium price 2001-2006
• 1.4. Active Matrix OLED Fab ramp-up in 2006/07 - most in East Asia
• 1.5. Global semiconductor shipments monthly and three month average 1983 to 2005
• 1.6. Typical price breaks for high volume electronics and examples of potential advances.
• 2.1. Traditional geometry for a field effect transistor
• 2.2. Performance of Kovio's ink versus others by mobility
• 2.3. Road map
• 2.4. Options for high speed, low-cost printing of TFTCs
• 2.5. Example of ZnO based transistor circuit.
• 2.6. Value chain for TFTCs and examples of migration of activity for players
• 2.7. An all-organic permanent memory transistor
• 2.8. TFE memory compared with the much more complex DRAM in silicon
• 2.9. Structure of TFE memory
• 2.10. TFE priorities for commercialisation of mega memory
• 2.11. Potential, in billions yearly, for global sales of RFID labels and circuits printed directly onto products or packaging. Item level is shown in red. These are examples.
• 3.1. Basic structure of an OLED
• 3.2. Samsung OLED television, Philips OLED shaver and Eastman Kodak OLED camera.
• 3.3. A 14 inch CDT flexible, ink jet printed phosphorescent OLED (P-OLED) display
• 3.4. LEP process flow
• 3.5. Some Add-Vision development P-OLEDs
• 3.6. A Sony OLED display illustrating its remarkable thinness
• 3.7. Concept of apparel that illuminates with flexible OLED displays
• 3.8. Concepts of OLED street signage and advertising
• 3.9. A concept of "wallpaper television" based on OLEDs.
• 3.10. US outdoor advertising spend 1993 - 2004
• 3.11. Outdoor advertising split by four major product categories
• 3.12. Breakdown of locations of outdoor advertising.
• 3.13. Principle of operation of electrophoretic displays
• 3.14. Sony E-Ink reader
• 3.15. E-Ink and Episys electrophoretic displays
• 3.16. Motorola mobile phone with electrophoretic display
• 3.17. Electrophoretic display on a commercially sold financial card
• 3.18. A Polymer Vision display
• 3.19. Electrochromic display on a Valentine's card sold by Marks and Spencer in the UK in 2004 and electrochromic display with drive circuits in a laminate for smart cards..
• 3.20. Boardroom lighting in Alcatel France that switches to various modes
• 3.21. EL décor, signage and instrumentation in the new Jaguar concept model
• 3.22. Signage for jump jets
• 3.23. Animated EL artwork in a two meter suspended ball for event lighting
• 3.24. Educational AC electroluminescent floor covering
• 3.25. Coyopa rum with four segment sequentially switched pictures
• 3.26. TV controller
• 3.27. Switched image on face of Fossil watch
• 3.28. The new Pelikon display tolerant of bright sunlight is shown left with the old display right.
• 3.29. A promotional display with sequentially switching images used at DeBeers in London
• 3.30. Car instrument illumination by electroluminescent display
• 3.31. Example of Quantum Paper light emitting paper displaying an advertisement
• 3.32. Duracell battery tester
• 3.33. Interactive game on a beer package by VTT Technologies in Finland
• 3.34. The dollhouse. When energy is added to the system the colour of the wallpaper changes and a picture appears on the wall
• 3.35. Two state electrolytic display on paper
• 3.36. Seven segment display printed with bi-stable inks
• 4.1. Timeframe for creation of improved, flexible OLED lighting.
• 4.2. Value chain for manufacture of OLEDs for lighting and signage
• 4.3. A small OLED light
• 4.4. The space saving of OLED lights and their exceptional colour tunability
• 4.5. Motion lighting concept
• 5.1. Some of the overlapping requirements for photovoltaics
• 5.2. Photovoltaic efficiencies compared
• 5.3. Operating principle of fullerine organic photovoltaics
• 5.4. Construction of a traditional bulk heterojunction organic photovoltaic cell
• 5.5. Module stack for photovoltaics
• 5.6. The 1500 organisations tackling printed and potentially printed devices and their materials
• 5.7. Konarka polymer photovoltaic technology
• 5.8. Estimated World Market Demand by region
• 5.9. Reel to reel process of Leeds Lithium Power
• 5.10. Infinite Power Solutions batteries.
• 5.11. Power Paper printed battery
• 5.12. Reel to reel screen printing of Thin Battery Technologies batteries
• 5.13. Voltaflex organic polymer lithium battery
• 6.1. The main options for organic sensors
• 6.2. Plastic film scanner with no moving parts
• 6.3. Example and construction of Nanoident photodetector arrays
• 6.4. World's first high-resolution organic photodetector with 250 dpi resolution.
• 6.5. Concept of display with integrated biometric sensor
• 6.6. Nanoident technology roadmap
• 6.7. World's first 7x21 wells Nanotiterplate with integrated readout. This lab on a chip can take blood to 300 antigens where the photodetector array detects ractions by colour change.
• 6.8. Experimental photodetectors with displays on them
• 7.1. Organisations involved in printed and potentially printed electronics across the world, by type of interest
• 7.2. Market by Territory 2008
• 7.3. Market by Territory 2013
• 7.4. Market by Territory 2018
• 7.5. East Asian organisations in 2007
• 7.6. East Asian organisations in 2017
• 7.7. Market forecast by component type for 2008 to 2028 in US $ billions, for printed and potentially printed electronics including organic, inorganic and composites
• 7.8. Market forecasts for 2028
• 7.9. Spend on organic versus inorganic materials 2008-2028
• 7.10. Market value $ billions of printed versus non printed electronics 2008-2018
• 7.11. Market value $ billions of flexible/conformal versus non flexible printed electronics 2008-2018
• 7.12. Materials market forecast 2008-2018
• 7.13. Examples of organic and inorganic electronics and electrics potentially tackling different technologies and applications.
• 7.14. Some of the potential markets
• 7.15. Indium price 2001-2006
• 8.1. DNP experimental flexible OLED
• 8.2. Objective and background
• 8.3. What is good for the good device?
• 8.4. A Fujitsu "electronic paper" display
• 8.5. Inks developed by InkTec
• 8.6. InkTec Printing methods
• 8.7. Ubiquitous Sensor Networks (USN)
• 8.8. Simple sensors used in initial trials
• 8.9. USN services and applications
• 8.10. USN timeline
• 8.11. Left is diode logic OR gate and the right is a bridge rectifier
• 8.12. Micrograph of an SSD array and the 110 GHz microwave measurement setup
• 8.13. Samsung OLED display
• 8.14. New electronics targets physical space
• 8.15. Large-area electronics
• 8.16. 32" pressure sensor matrix
• 8.17. Wireless power transmission sheet
• 8.18. Device structure
• 8.19. Organic transistors
• 8.20. Organic transistor 3D ICs
• 8.21. Scanner with no moving parts
• 8.22. Scanning a wine bottle label
• 8.23. Flexible battery that charges in one minute