Transceiver Market Forecast Report (February 2008)

SUMMARY

“System vendors are experiencing severe price pressures as network traffic continues to grow,“ says Roy Rubenstein, director of research at LightCounting. Operators want equipment costs reduced and new architectures that simplify operational expense.“Equipment makers will reward those transceiver vendors that help them meet cost targets and new interfaces requirements so that they can focus on more challenging architectural issues,” says Rubenstein.

The optical transceiver market has now shown three years of steady growth. Sales of optical transceivers exceeded $2 billion in 2007, and grew at an annual rate of 10 percent. Global transceiver sales will continue to grow and reach $2.8 billion in 2011. Wide adoption of high-speed 10 Gbps and 40 Gbps interfaces in telecom and enterprise networks along with global FTTx deployments will be the main drivers of this growth.

LightCounting February 2008 Forecasting report presents detailed historical data from 2005 to 2007 and forecast through 2011 for SONET/SDH, Ethernet, Fibre Channel, CWDM, DWDM, FTTx transceivers and optical interconnects, sorted in over 100 product categories including 26 new categories such as SFP+ form factor, 40 and 100 Gbps and next generation FTTx PON transceivers among others.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Tables:

• Table 1. Historical and Forecasted Price Declines for High Data Rate Optical Transceivers
• Table 2. Example Operators and Their Carrier Ethernet Expansion Plans
• Table 3. Characteristics of Commercially Available PONs
• Table 4. List of Transceiver Vendors Included in this Report

Figures:

• Figure 1. Worldwide Transceiver Sales: Historical Data and Forecast
• Figure 2. Transceiver Sales by Market Segments: Historical Data and Forecast
• Figure 3. Utilized Bandwidth in Core Telecom and FTTx Access Networks
• Figure 4. Sales of 10 Gbps Modules by Application
• Figure 5. Sales of 40 Gbps and 100 Gbps Modules by Application
• Figure 6. Sales of SONET/SDH Transceivers by Data Rate
• Figure 7. Sales of SONET/SDH Market by Form Factor
• Figure 8. Sales of Ethernet Transceivers by Data Rate
• Figure 9. Sales of 10 Gig Ethernet Transceivers by Form Factor
• Figure 10. Sales of Fiber Channel Modules by Data Rate
• Figure 11. Sales of CWDM and DWDM Transceivers by Data Rate
• Figure 12. Sales of FTTx Transceivers by Type
• Figure 13. Sales of Optical Interconnects

Appendices:

• Appendix A. Historical Data and Forecast for SONET/SDH Transceiver Shipments
• Appendix B. Historical Data and Forecast for Ethernet Transceiver Shipments
• Appendix C. Historical Data and Forecast for Fibre Channel Transceiver Shipments
• Appendix D. Historical Data and Forecast for CWDM and DWDM Transceiver Shipments
• Appendix E. Historical Data and Forecast for FTTx Transceiver Shipments
• Appendix F. Historical Data and Forecast for Optical Interconnect Shipments
• Appendix G. Forecast for Detailed Optical Port Shipments

The sales data for 2005- 2007 account for sales of 30 transceiver vendors, including 21 vendors that shared confidential sales data with LightCounting. The market forecast for 2008- 2011 is based on a model correlating transceiver sales with network traffic growth and projected subscribers of FTTx systems.