Low Carb Foods - UK - August 2004

SUMMARY

Low-carb diets have been in existence for many decades now but really came toprominence during the late 1990s and early part of this decade with a boom inthe popularity of one particular variant, the Atkins Nutritional Approach (ANA),more commonly known as the Atkins Diet. It sprang to prominence aided by theendorsement of several celebrities, such as Jennifer Aniston and Geri Halliwell,and strong sales of Dr Atkins' books about his diet.

The market for low-carb foods - prepared foods targeting those on such diets- has been slower to take off, but is now beginning to gather pace, driven by anincreased number of products, more widespread distribution including major highstreet outlets and stronger consumer demand.

Providing a unique overview of the market's size, prospects, structure andconsumers it addresses the key topics, including:

• The extent to which overweight and obese trends feed demand for low-carbdiets

• Dieting and slimming trends in the UK population

• The implications of an increasingly affluent population for the market

• Alternative low-carb diets to the Atkins regime

• The impact of low-carb foods on other markets

• The dynamics of a fragmented supply structure

• The most popular weight loss methods

• The most popular low-carb products

• Consumer attitudes

• Who are the potential future customers?

• The pressing need to tackle the issue of high lapse rates and increasedistribution.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Introduction and Abbreviations

• Lack of trust restricts the market
• An overstated market?

• Definition
• Socio-economic group
• Lifestage and Special Groups
• Advertising data

Abbreviations

Executive Summary

• Overweight and obese trends feed demand for low-carb diets
• Over a third trying to slim, women more than men
• More affluent population bodes well for more expensive diet products
• Wide range of low-carb diets, other competing diets
• A difficult market to quantify due to lack of reliable data
• Confectionery/snack bars lead the way
• Low-carb impact on other markets hard to quantify
• Fragmented supply structure
• Little main media promotion at present
• Internet specialists still prominent but multiple retailers taking aninterest
• Most popular weight loss methods
• Small minority currently on a low-carb diet, drop-out rates high
• No shortage of potential future customers
• High lapse rates need to be tackled
• Wider distribution will bring them to a new audience

Market Drivers

• Levels of being overweight and obese
• Figure 1: Incidence of being overweight or obese among men and women, by agegroup, 1997 and 2001
• The slimming issue
• Figure 2: Adults who are trying to slim, 1980-2003
• Attitudes towards food
• Figure 3: Agreement with lifestyle statements about food and eating habits,1998-2003
• Attitudes towards diet and health
• Figure 4: Agreement with lifestyle statements about diet and health,1998-2003
• Attitudes towards personal appearance and self-perception
• Figure 5: Agreement with lifestyle statements about personal appearance andself-perception, 1998-2003
• Shifts in the age structure of the UK population
• Figure 6: Trends and projections in total UK population, by age group,1999-2008
• Shifts in the socio-economic structure of the UK population
• Figure 7: Trends in the socio-economic structure of the UK adult population,1999-2008
• PDI and consumer expenditure
• Figure 8: PDI and consumer expenditure, at current and constant 1999 prices,1999-2008

Market Background

Low-carb diets

• Atkins Nutritional Approach
• The Stillman Diet
• The Scarsdale Medical Diet
• The Ketogenic Diet

Other diets

• The Zone Diet
• The Hollywood Diet
• The South Beach Diet
• GI Diet
• The New High Protein Health Fast Food Diet
• No-Grain Diet

Traditional diets

• Weight Watchers
• Slimming World
• Rosemary Conley
• Slim-Fast

Market Size and Segmentation

• Limited distribution restricts quantification
• Confectionery dominates sales

Impact of low-carb on other markets

• Potatoes take a dive
• Figure 9: Market size trends for foods not encouraged as part of a low-carbdiet, 1999-2004
• Eggs enjoy a boom
• Figure 10: Market size trends for foods encouraged as part of a low-carbdiet, 1999-2004
• Comparative growth
• Figure 11: Indexed growth for foods not encouraged as part of a low-carbdiet, 1999-2004
• Figure 12: Indexed growth for foods encouraged as part of a low-carb diet,1999-2004

Market Trends and Issues

Main factors driving demand

Key target audience

Defining low-carb

Pricing

Attitude of major grocery multiples

The Supply Structure

Manufacturers/brand share

Companies and brands

• Atkins Nutritionals (UK) Ltd
• Carbolite Europe
• NestlESA
• Laboratoire N.P.C. UK Ltd
• FeelingOK.net Ltd
• Carbophobia Ltd
• RHM Ltd
• Others
• Own-label
• New product development

New Product Trends

• August 2004
• July 2004
• June 2004
• May 2004
• March 2004

Advertising and Promotion

• Expenditure levels will grow
• Alternative promotional tactics used
• The Internet - an important promotional tool

Distribution

• The key to future growth
• Expansion lies in the hands of the grocery multiples

The Consumer

Methods used to lose weight

• Figure 13: Ways in which consumers would try to lose weight, 2000-04
• Most accept more regular exercise is best
• Fat, sugar and chocolate, not carbohydrates, seen as enemy
• No snacks/alcohol plus calorie control seen as answer
• More exercise and less alcohol is the answer for men...
• ...while women focus more on diet

Reasons for going on a weight loss diet

• Figure 14: Reasons for going on a weight loss diet, May 2004
• Health reasons and self-esteem most popular reasons for losing weight
• Men cite wellbeing, women cite their appearance

The prevalence of low-carb diets

• Figure 15: Consumer behaviour relating to low-carb diets, May 2004
• Small number currently on a low-carb diet
• Drop-out rates are high
• Still strong interest in low-carb diets for the future
• Majority of adults yet to try low-carb and no plans to do so

Low-carb diets' impact on food consumption patterns

• Quarter of consumers claim to consume less bread
• Figure 16: Shifts in consumption of bread, May 2004
• Claimed pasta consumption grows
• Figure 17: Shifts in consumption of pasta, May 2004
• Potato consumption appears to have slumped
• Figure 18: Shifts in consumption of potatoes, May 2004
• Coffee/tea consumption rises
• Figure 19: Shifts in consumption of coffee/tea, May 2004
• Mineral water consumption springs ahead
• Figure 20: Shifts in consumption of mineral water, May 2004
• Regular carbonates consumption drops
• Figure 21: Shifts in consumption of regular fizzy drinks, May 2004
• Diet carbonates consumption also appears to have fallen
• Figure 22: Shifts in consumption of diet fizzy drinks, May 2004
• Balance of lager/beer consumption is down
• Figure 23: Shifts in consumption of lager or beer, May 2004
• Wine or spirit consumption increases
• Figure 24: Shifts in consumption of wine or spirits, May 2004
• Meat and fish consumption up and not just among low-carb dieters
• Figure 25: Shifts in consumption of meat, poultry and seafood, May 2004
• A sea change in consumption for crisps and snacks
• Figure 26: Shifts in consumption of crisps/snacks, May 2004
• Low-carb fails to boost nut consumption significantly
• Figure 27: Shifts in consumption of nuts, May 2004
• Boom in vegetable consumption
• Figure 28: Shifts in consumption of vegetables, May 2004
• Fruit shows healthy growth in consumption
• Figure 29: Shifts in consumption of fruits, May 2004
• Consumers claim to eat fewer eggs despite low-carb boost
• Figure 30: Shifts in consumption of eggs, May 2004
• Milk and yogurt consumption on the rise
• Figure 31: Shifts in consumption of milk and yogurt, May 2004
• Slight drop in cheese consumption implied
• Figure 32: Shifts in consumption of cheese, May 2004
• Claimed consumption of sweet biscuits and cakes dips
• Figure 33: Shifts in consumption of sweet biscuits and cakes, May 2004
• Chocolate and sweet consumption also declines
• Figure 34: Shifts in consumption of chocolate and other sweets, May 2004
• Consumers cut back on ice cream too
• Figure 35: Shifts in consumption of ice cream, May 2004

Detailed demographics

• Figure 36: Most popular methods used to lose weight, by gender, age,socio-economic group, lifestage, presence of children and Mintel's SpecialGroups, May 2004
• Figure 37: Most popular methods used to lose weight, by region, media usage,TV viewing habits and supermarket usage, May 2004
• Figure 38: Other popular methods used to lose weight, by gender, age,socio-economic group, lifestage, presence of children and Mintel's SpecialGroups, May 2004
• Figure 39: Other popular methods used to lose weight, by region, mediausage, TV viewing habits and supermarket usage, May 2004
• Figure 40: Most popular reasons for wanting to lose weight, by gender, age,socio-economic group, lifestage, presence of children and Mintel's SpecialGroups, May 2004
• Figure 41: Most popular reasons for wanting to lose weight, by region, mediausage, TV viewing habits and supermarket usage, May 2004
• Figure 42: Other popular reasons for wanting to lose weight, by gender, age,socio-economic group, lifestage, presence of children and Mintel's SpecialGroups, May 2004
• Figure 43: Other popular reasons for wanting to lose weight, by region,media usage, TV viewing habits and supermarket usage, May 2004
• Figure 44: Experience with low-carb dieting, by gender, age, socio-economicgroup, lifestage, presence of children and Mintel's Special Groups, May 2004
• Figure 45: Experience with low-carb dieting, by region, media usage, TVviewing habits and supermarket usage, May 2004

The Future

• No shortage of potential customers for diets in general
• Encouraging levels of trial
• Biggest potential: improving/proving the science
• Distribution is key
• Wider distribution will prompt shake-out
• Greater competition will help to develop market
• With competition comes promotion
• It's no longer just about Atkins
• Opportunity for domestic suppliers
• Legislative hiccup on the horizon?
• Low-carb: fad or fixture?

Forecast

• Figure 46: Forecast of those with experience of low-carb diets, 2004-09
• Scenario 1
• Scenario 2
• Scenario 3