Weight Control - US - April 2005

SUMMARY

The U.S. market for weight control products was worth $1.9 billion in 2004, following a sharp decline that began in 2002, after the market reached $2.2 billion. The combined effects of the Ephedra controversy as well as trends in low-carb dieting have had a strong impact on the weight control product market.

While sales have suffered, Mintel believes the decline is temporary, as interest in low-carb diets is waning, and as manufacturers have produced entirely new lines of products which do not use Ephedra. TrimSpa is one of the earlier success stories. New products launched in 2004 include Relacore and Cortislim. These reduce the effects of the hormone cortisol, which is activated during stress and can cause weight gain. As the low-carb diets decine in popularity, these new products could become the next favorite diet plan. At time of publication, it also appears likely that the ban on Ephedra will be overturned, but regaining consumer confidence and rebuilding sales will take time.

In addition to products designed for weight loss, this report includes products used to gain weight or build muscle. This report focuses on weight control drinks (liquid and powdered) and over the counter weight control pills and candy.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Introduction and Abbreviations

Introduction

Other relevant reports

Definition

Natural food stores data source

Abbreviations & terms

Abbreviations

Terms

Executive Summary

Growing population, growing waistlines

The Ephedra scare continues to affect the market

Low-carb takes a toll

Steady growth until 2002, followed by decline

Liquid/powdered products lead the market

Changes in supplier rankings

Damage control

Supermarkets are top sellers

Part of the consumer lifestyle

More challenges ahead

Future sales expected to see moderate growth

Market Drivers

Ephedra concerns played a role in sales decline

Potential in non-Ephedra products

Low-carb dieting

Obesity Increasing

• Figure 1: Prevalence of overweight* and obesity** among U.S. adults, 1976-1980; 1988-1994; and 1999-2002
• Figure 2: Prevalence of overweight and obesity among U.S. adults, by demographic characteristics, 1988-1994 and 1999-2002

Women more overweight than men, more concerned about side-effects as well

Dieting alone proves unsuccessful

Medicalization of obesity

Market Size & Trends

• Figure 3: Total U.S. retail sales of weight control products, at current and constant prices, 1999-2004

Market Segmentation

Overview

• Figure 4: Sales of weight control products, segmented by type, 2002 & 2004

Liquid/powder

• Figure 5: Sales of liquid/powder weight control products, at current and constant prices, 1999-2004

Candy/pill

• Figure 6: Sales of candy/pill, at current and constant prices, 1999-2004

Supply Structure

Company and brand sales

• Figure 7: Manufacturer sales of weight control products in the U.S., 2002 & 2004

Brand sales by segment

Liquid/Powder

• Figure 8: Manufacturer brand sales of liquid/powder weight control products in the U.S., 2002 & 2004

Candy/Pills

• Figure 9: Leading manufacturer and brand sales of candy/pill weight control products in the U.S. at FDM, 2002 & 2004

Company and brand profiles

Ross Labs

Slim-Fast Foods

Novartis

Atkins Nutritionals

Metabolife

Cytodyne

Advertising & Promotion

Ross Labs

Slim-Fast

Atkins Nutritionals

NutraAmerica Corp.

Metabolife

MuscleTech

Retail Distribution

Introduction

• Figure 10: U.S. retail sales of weight control products, by channel, 2002 & 2004

Supermarkets

• Figure 11: U.S. supermarket sales of weight control products, at current and constant prices, 1999-2004

Drug stores

• Figure 12: U.S. drug store sales of weight control products, at current and constant prices, 1999-2004

Mass-merchandisers and clubs

• Figure 13: U.S. mass-merchandiser and club store sales of weight control products, at current and constant prices, 1999-2004

The Consumer

Introduction

Adult use of liquid breakfast and nutritional supplement products

• Figure 14: Use of liquid breakfast/nutritional supplement products, January-September 2004
• Figure 15: Use of liquid breakfast/nutritional supplement products, by race/ethnicity, January-September 2004
• Figure 16: Use of liquid breakfast/nutritional supplement products, by consumers who are controlling their diets, January-September 2004

Reasons for use of liquid breakfast/nutritional supplements

• Figure 17: Reasons for use of liquid breakfast/nutritional supplements, January-September 2004
• Figure 18: Reasons for use of liquid breakfast/nutritional supplements, by gender, January-September 2004
• Figure 19: Reasons for use of liquid breakfast/mutritional supplements, by marital status, January-September 2004
• Figure 20: Reasons for use of liquid breakfast/nutritional supplements, by those on a controlled diet, January-September 2004

Consumption of liquid breakfast/nutritional supplements in past 7 days

• Figure 21: Frequency of breakfast/nutritional supplements consumption, January-September 2004
• Figure 22: Frequency of breakfast/nutritional supplements consumption, by age, January-September 2004

Consumption of liquid breakfast/nutritional supplements in past 30 days

• Figure 23: Consumption of liquid breakfast/nutritional supplements in past 30 days, January-September 2004
• Figure 24: Consumption of liquid breakfast/nutritional supplements in past 30 days, by controlled diet, January-September 2004

Adults who control their diets

• Figure 25: Adults controlling their diet, January-September 2004
• Figure 26: Adults controlling their diet, by gender, January-September 2004
• Figure 27: Adults controlling their diet, by age, January-September 2004

Reasons for controlling diet

• Figure 28: Reasons for controlling weight, January-September 2004

Types of diet control products used

• Figure 29: Types of diet control products used, January-September 2004

Teen use of liquid breakfast and nutritional supplement products

• Figure 30: Teen use of liquid breakfast/nutritional supplement products, January-September 2004

Types of products used by teens

• Figure 31: Types of liquid breakfast/nutritional supplement products used by teens, January-September 2004

Teen consumption of liquid breakfast/nutritional supplement products in past 30 days

• Figure 32: Teen consumption rates of liquid breakfast/nutritional supplement products, January-September 2004

Teen dieters

• Figure 33: Teen dieters, January-September 2004

Teen use of weight control products

• Figure 34: Teen use of weight control products, by type of product, January-September 2004

Use of liquid/powdered weight control products

• Figure 35: Use of liquid/powdered weight control products, February 2005
• Figure 36: Use of liquid/powdered weight control products, by gender, February 2005

Reasons for using weight control products

• Figure 37: Reasons for using weight control products, February 2005

Attitudes towards weight control and weight control products

• Figure 38: Attitudes towards weight control and weight control products, February 2005
• Figure 39: Attitudes towards weight control and weight control products, by gender, February 2005
• Figure 40: Attitudes towards weight control and weight control products, by age, February 2005

Summary

Future & Forecast

Future trends

Obesity, population likely to increase

• Figure 41: American generations, 2000-2010

Ephedra fears remain a factor

Low-carb diets

Bariatric surgery

Medical conditions and the health insurance industry

Perception of weight and image

Market forecast

Weight control products

• Figure 42: Forecast of total U.S. retail sales of weight control products, at current and constant prices, 2004-2009
• Figure 43: Graph: Trends of total U.S. retail sales of weight control products, at current prices, 1999-2009

Liquid/powder weight control products

• Figure 44: Forecast of U.S. sales of liquid/powder weight control products, at current and constant prices, 2004-2009

Candy/pill weight control products

• Figure 45: Forecast of U.S. sales of candy/pill weight control products, at current and constant prices, 2004-2009

Forecast Factors

Appendix: Trade Associations

Appendix: New Product Developments

Category review邑eight Control

Introduction

Executive Summary

Definitions

Product trends

Meal replacements

Shakes

Bars/biscuits

Weight loss drinks

Supplements

Appetite suppressers

Alternative formats

Flavors/ingredients

Greater variety of flavors

Natural ingredients

Packaging trends

Product launches by company/brand

Forecast/predictions

Appendix: Research Methodology

Consumer Research

Sampling & Weighting

Technometrica Market Intelligence

ICR Surveys

Simmons Market Research Bureau

Greenfield Online

Presentation & Definition

Further Analysis

Trade Research

Informal trade research

Formal trade research

Desk & Internet Research

Sources

Definitions

Forecasts

Appendix: what is Mintel?

Mintel Group

Mintel Reports

Mintel Premier

Mintel ECLIPS

GNPD

Menu Insights

Comperemedia

Brokertrack

Mintel Services

Applied Research

Mintel Consulting

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