Poultry and Game Meat - UK - July 2008

SUMMARY

Abstract

Bird flu and rising feed costs have dented retail poultry volumes, but value is expected to climb a further 6.5% to £2.7 billion in 2008, buoyed by premium growth (including free-range sales).

Rapid growth in the game trade shows no signs of abating, with retail sales expected to rise 8% to £69 million in 2008, on the back of new product development (NPD), healthy credentials, and relaxed licensing regulations.

Key themes of the report:

• Celebrity chefs have accelerated interest in provenance and welfare, boosting free-range sales, but growth in organic has slowed, hindered by high costs and negative media coverage.
• The impact of bird flu outbreaks on commercial poultry flocks was short-lived but costly, with Bernard Matthews subsequently moving to 100% British turkey to reassure consumers.
• Rising feed prices, together with growing energy and labour costs, and buoyed retail prices, but could potentially put many poultry producers out of business, tightening supply further.
• Greater interest in cooking and health is aiding the game sector, although game remains a tricky proposition for many cooks and would benefit from clearer on-pack instructions.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Table of Contents

• Issues in the Market
• Key themes
• Definitions
• Market in Brief
• Value growth across poultry and game categories
• Regulations hamper poultry sector, free up game trade
• NPD adds value and excitement
• Adspend targets young consumers
• Supermarkets lose poultry but gain game retail share
• Consumer research highlights opportunities
• The future
• Internal Market Environment
• Key points
• TV chefs shine spotlight on welfare
  • Figure 1: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, 2003-07
• Consumer conversion to free-range underway
• Assurance schemes continue to multiply
  • Figure 2: Assurance schemes, 2008
• Organic poultry in growth but hampered by contention
• Provenance plays a key role in the premium proposition
  • Figure 3: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, 2003-07
• Food scares
• Bird flu puts a short-lived dent in sales
• Progress made on combating salmonella
• Rising input costs challenge producers' profitability
• Cooking and convenience compete as market drivers
  • Figure 4: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, 2003-07
• Games on as the nation becomes health conscious
  • Figure 5: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, 2003-07
• Broader Market Environment
• Key points
• Availability an issue for some game sub-categories
• Poultry imports fill supply gap but rile British farmers
• More third age and ABs support premium growth
  • Figure 6: Implications of projected demographic changes of the UK population for the poultry and game market, 2008
• Poultry regulations
• IPPC proves costly and prohibitive to growth
• New broiler welfare directive sets its sights too low?
• EU may drop ban on animal protein in poultry feed
• New licences apply to Thai and Brazilian poultry trade
• Game regulations
• Antiquated game laws are revised
• Better training, hygiene in place as result of 2006
• regulations
• Competitive Context
• Key points
• Versatile poultry leads British protein consumption
  • Figure 7: Competitive context for poultry, 2007-08
• Game vs poultry
• Poultry for barbecue
• Christmas occasion
• Strengths and Weaknesses in the Market
• Poultry
• Strengths
• Weaknesses
• Game
• Strengths
• Weaknesses
• Poultry -- Market and Segment Performance
• Key points
• Total poultry
  • Figure 10: UK retail sales of poultry, by value and volume, 2003-08
• Bird flu and feed costs bite into volume sales
• Welfare focus, NPD, and rising input costs boost valueChicken
  • Figure 11: UK retail sales of chicken, by value and volume, 2003-08
• Chicken value grows, despite falling volume
• Further processed takes the value lead
  • Figure 12: UK retail sales of chicken, by type, by value, 2003-07
• Whole birds
  • Figure 13: UK retail sales of chicken: Whole birds, by type, by value, 2003-07
• A fresh approach to whole bird...
• Chicken portions
  • Figure 14: UK retail sales of chicken portions*, by type, by value, 2003-07
• ...and also chicken portion sales
• Further processed
  • Figure 15: UK retail sales of further-processed chicken, by value, 2003-07
• Processed chicken cleans up its act
• Turkey
  • Figure 16: UK retail sales of turkey, by value and volume, 2003-08
• Year-round turkey sales struggle
• Premiumisation boosts value of whole-bird sales
  • igure 17: UK retail sales of turkey, by value, 2003-07
• Consumers turn to crowns for Christmas
• Other poultry -- duck and goose
  • Figure 18: UK retail sales of duck and geese, by value and volume, 2003-07
• Steady, high-value markets for duck and goose
• The future
• Forecast -- Poultry
• Higher prices drive growth
  • Figure 19: Forecast of total UK retail sales of poultry, at current prices, 2003-13
  • Figure 20: Forecast of total UK retail sales of poultry, at 2008 prices, 2003-13
• Free-range future
• Future to remain tough for turkey
• Game -- Market and Segment Performance
• Key points
• Consumers are fair game as sales continue to climb
  • Figure 21: UK retail sales of game meat, 2003-08
• Demand outstrips supply for versatile venison
  • Figure 22: Retail sales of game meat, by type, 2006-08
• Game birds spread their wings
• Wild boar drives sales of other game
• The future
• Forecast -- game meat
• Healthy growth to continue
  • Figure 23: Forecast of UK retail sales of game meat, 2003-13
• Demographic changes to promote growth
• Product Positioning
• Key points
  • Figure 24: Supermarket prices for poultry and out-of-season game, June 2008
• Turkey: a budget choice for the credit crunch
• Steaks are high for venison
• Free range: not necessarily out of price range
• Companies and Products
• Poultry companies
• Bernard Matthews
• Cherry Valley
• Cranberry Foods
• Faccenda Group
• Grampian Country Food Group
• Gressingham Foods
• Iglo Birds Eye
• Kerry Foods
• Lloyd Maunder
• Moy Park
• Cargill Meats Europe
• 2 Sisters Food Group
• Game companies
• Braehead Foods
• Highland Game
• Holme Farmed Venison
• Rick Bestwick
• Yorkshire Game
• Willo Game
• UK Game Company
• Trade Bodies
• Poultry
• British Chicken Marketing
• British Turkey
• Game
• Game's On
• Game-to-Eat
• National Gamekeepers Organisation
• National Game Dealers Association
• Game Farmers' Association
• Brand Communication and Promotion
• Key points
• Poultry spend
  • Figure 25: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on poultry, 2004-07
• Above- and below-the-line activity increases
• Youth-targeted convenience products lead spending
  • Figure 26: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on poultry, 2005 and 2007
• Mattessons raids the top spot
• Birds Eye brings Madness to the dinner table
• Bernard Matthews seeks to restore consumer confidence
• Fast-food chains spend big on poultry
• Trade bodies
• British Chicken Marketing
• British Turkey
• Game spend
  • Figure 27: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on game, 2004-07
• High demand erodes need for ad spend
• Trade bodies
• Game-to-Eat
• Game's On
• Channels to Market
• Key points
• Chicken
  • Figure 28: UK retail sales of primary chicken, by type of outlet, by value, 2003-07
• Supermarkets suffer from bird flu/welfare focus
• Turkey
  • Figure 29: UK retail sales of primary turkey, by type of outlet, by value, 2003-07
• Premium festive turkeys add value for specialist traders
• Further processed
  • Figure 30: UK retail sales of further-processed poultry (chicken and turkey), by type of outlet, by value, 2003-07
• Growth across most outlets for processed poultry
• Game meat
  • Figure 31: UK retail sales of game, by outlet type, 2003-07
• Game trade-up across the board
• Consumer -- Poultry: Usage and Frequency?
• Key points
• Frequency of poultry consumption
  • Figure 32: Frequency of eating poultry (chicken and turkey) at home, April 2008
• Families fuel frequent usage of poultry
  • Figure 33: Heavy consumers* of poultry at home, by lifestage, household size, April 2008
• Elderly, a key target to increase frequency of consumption
  • Figure 34: Average numbers of days between eating poultry and between eating red meat at home, by age group, April 2008
  • Figure 35: Frequency of buying free-range poultry, April 2008
• Majority buy free range, at least occasionally
  • Figure 36: Non-buyers of free-range poultry and any poultry according to ACORN group, April 2008
  • Figure 37: Correlation analysis bewteen free-range buyers groups and supermarkets where they shop, July 2008
• Appendix
• Abbreviations
• Appendix : Internal Market Environment
  • Figure 42: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, by demographic sub-group, 2007
  • Figure 43: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, by demographic sub-group, 2007
  • Figure 44: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, by demographic sub-group, 2007
  • Figure 45: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, by demographic sub-group, 2007
  • Figure 46: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, by demographic sub-group, 2007
• Appendix : Broader Market Environment
  • Figure 49: Trends and projections in UK population, by socio-economic group, 2003-13
  • Figure 50: Trends and projections in UK population, by age, 2003-13
  • Figure 51: Trends and projections in UK population, by lifestage, 2003-13
  • Figure 52: Trends and projections in UK household size, 2003-13
• Appendix: Consumer -- Poultry: Usage and Frequency?
  • Figure 53: Frequency of eating poultry (chicken and turkey) at home, April 2008
  • Figure 54: Average number of days between eating red meat, poultry and fish/seafood at home, by demographic sub-group, 2008
  • Figure 55: Frequency of buying free-range poultry, by demographic sub-group, April 2008
  • Figure 56: Frequency of eating poultry at home by frequency of buying free-range poultry, 2008