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SUMMARY
Abstract
The chocolate confectionery industry is slow growing, driven primarily by the popularity of premium chocolate. This report looks at issues facing the industry, including:
- The overall flattening sales rates and the sinking fortunes of snack-sized and sugar-free segments
- The dynamics of chocolate retailing and the strength of non-traditional channels
- The declining share of sales through supermarkets, and what can be done to shore up that channel
- Potential new products and how they could attract new user groups
- What consumers eat when they crave something sweet-and how manufacturers of chocolate can move into other industries
- Counterintuitive chocolate products: natural, organic, and functional. Savory chocolates-with herbal or spicy flavor notes-are a niche market, but adults may consider them worth a try
- Who eats candy-beyond kids and teens-and how chocolate gift giving varies by holiday
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Table of Contents
- Scope and Themes
- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data sources and methodology
- Sales data
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations
- Terms
- Executive Summary
- Total sales holding at about $16.3 billion
- The competitive landscape is challenging
- Box/bag/bar more than 3.5oz is the biggest segment, with a 40% share
- The majority of chocolate sales take place outside FDMx channels
- But interest in premium chocolate may be waning
- Medical news is good and bad
- Increasing commodity prices affect industry
- The Hershey Co. is the market leader...for now
- Innovations from many countries
- Advertising constrained by childhood obesity concerns
- More than three quarters of adults buy chocolate
- Chocolate cravings are strong for more than two thirds of purchases
- Premium and organic
- Types of chocolate purchased
- Preferred brands
- Spouses and kids most likely to receive chocolate
- Market Size and Forecast
- Key points
- Chocolate sales continue to grow, but more slowly
- Chocolate sales and forecast
- Figure 2: Total U.S. sales and forecast of chocolate confectionery, at
current prices, 2002-12
- Figure 3: Total U.S. sales and forecast of chocolate confectionery, at
inflation-adjusted prices, 2002-12
- Wal-Mart sales
- Competitive Context
- Key points
- Chocolate is a popular sweet
- Figure 4: Foods chosen to satisfy craving for sweets, April 2008
- Seasonal chocolate and non-chocolate confectionery
- Figure 5: Seasonal sales of chocolate and non-chocolate confectionery
(FDMx), by holiday, 2005 and 2007
- Segment Performance
- Key points
- Box/bag/bar more than 3.5oz is best-performing segment
- Smaller segments see declining sales
- FDMx is only part of the story
- Figure 6: U.S. sales of chocolate confectionery, by segment (FDMx), 2005
and 2007
- Figure 7: U.S. sales and forecast of chocolate confectionery, at current
prices, top five segments (FDMx), 2002-12
- Segment Performance--Bar/Bag/Box more than 3.5oz
- Key points
- Premium products challenge mainstream players
- Figure 8: U.S. sales and forecast of chocolate confectionery bar/bag/box
less than 3.5oz, at current prices (FDMx), 2002-12
- Segment Performance--Seasonal Chocolate Confectionery
- Key points
- Seasonal chocolate sales depend on the calendar
- Figure 9: U.S. sales and forecast of seasonal chocolate confectionery,
at current prices (FDMx), 2002-12
- Easter is top chocolate holiday
- Figure 10: Sales of chocolate, by holiday (FDMx), 2005 and 2007
- Segment Performance--Bar/Bag/Box less than 3.5oz
- Key points
- Impulse sales strong, as is competition
- Figure 11: U.S. sales and forecast of chocolate bar/bag/box less than
3.5oz, at current prices (FDMx), 2002-12
- Segment Performance--Snack-size Chocolate
- Key points
- Majority of snack-size products appeal to kids and teens
- Figure 12: U.S. sales and forecast of snack-size chocolate, at current
prices (FDMx), 2002-12
- Segment Performance--Gift Box Chocolate
- Key points
- Gift boxes lose ground in FDMx channels
- Figure 13: U.S. sales and forecast of gift box chocolate, at current
prices (FDMx), 2002-12
- Segment Performance--Sugar-free Chocolate
- Key points
- Sugar-free chocolate was popular during the low carb fad
- Figure 14: U.S. sales and forecast of sugar-free chocolate, at current
prices (FDMx), 2002-12
- Retail Channels
- Key points
- The majority of chocolate purchases are outside traditional channels
- Multiple tiers of chocolate
- Figure 15: Total U.S. sales of chocolate confectionery, by retail
channel, 2005 and 2007
- Retail Channels--Supermarkets
- Stiff competition requires imaginative merchandising
- Figure 16: U.S. sales of chocolate confectionery at food stores, at
current prices, 2002-07
- Market Drivers
- Interest in premium remains strong but it may be fading
- Medical news: Good and bad
- Good news on chocolate
- Bad news on health
- Commodity prices are taking a toll
- Is confectionery "recession proof"?
- Leading Companies
- Key points
- The candy world is in a state of flux
- Mergers, acquisitions, and questions
- Figure 17: Sales of leading chocolate manufacturers, FDMx sales, 2007
and 2008
- Brand Share--Box/Bar/Bag >3/5 oz.
- Key points
- Hershey leads, but doesn't gain
- Figure 18: Company and brand sales of chocolate bar/bag/box more than
3.5oz, FDMx, 2007 and 2008
- Brand Share--Seasonal Chocolate
- Key points
- Holiday candy sales dependent on the calendar
- Figure 19: Company and brand sales of seasonal chocolate, FDMx, 2007 and
2008
- Brand Share--Box/Bar/Bag <3/5 oz.
- Key points
- Hershey leads the segment, but has made insubstantial gains
- Nestlé sales decline
- Figure 20: Company and brand sales of chocolate box/bar/bag less than
3.5oz, FDMx, 2007 and 2008
- Brand Share--Snack-size Chocolate
- Key points
- Sales decline in segment aimed primarily at kids
- Figure 21: Company and brand sales of snack-size chocolate, FDMx, 2007
and 2008
- Brand Share--Gift Box Chocolate
- Key points
- FDMx gift box sales do not include seasonal products
- Russell Stover leads, but only Ferrero sees increases
- Figure 22: Company and brand sales of gift box chocolate, FDMx, 2007 and
2008
- Brand Share--Sugar-free Chocolate
- Key points
- After low carb, sales decline
- Figure 23: Company and brand sales of sugar-free chocolate, FDMx, 2007
and 2008
- Brand Qualities
- Key points
- Finding new seasons for seasonal chocolate
- Figure 24: Gifting of chocolate, by holiday and recipient, May 2008
- Even more imaginative seasons and holidays
- Innovation and Innovators
- Key point
- International new product launches on the rise
- Figure 25: International new product launches, chocolate confectionery,
2002-08
- Top North American trends
- International trends
- Organic and natural
- Seasonal chocolate is a guaranteed winner
- Ethical and fair trade
- Premium launches decline: is the market saturated?
- More healthful chocolate?
- Children's new product launches limited
- Chocolate just for women and just for men
- Vintage and retro packaging tap into nostalgia trend
- Chocolate as medicine
- GNPD's forecast for new launches
- Advertising and Promotion
- Overview
- Diet chocolate?
- Figure 26: 3 Musketeers television ad, 2007
- Seasonal advertising
- Figure 27: Hershey's Kisses television ad, 2007
- Figure 28: Hershey's Reese's television ad, 2007
- Figure 29: M&Ms television ad, 2007
- Figure 30: Russell Stover television ad, 2007
- Figure 31: Whitman's Sampler television ad, 2007
- Personalized chocolate
- Figure 32: Hershey's M&Ms television ad, 2007
- Figure 33: Hershey's Kisses television ad, 2007
- Who Buys Chocolate and for Whom?
- Key point
- Figure 34: Purchase incidence of chocolate candy, by gender, age,
household income, race/ethnicity and presence of children, April 2008
- Craving Chocolate
- Key points
- Figure 35: Reasons for purchasing chocolate for personal consumption, by
age, May 2008
- Premium and Organic Chocolate
- Key points
- Figure 36: Opinions regarding premium chocolate, by household income,
May 2008
- Types of Chocolate Purchased
- Key points
- Figure 37: Types of chocolate purchased for personal consumption, by
age, May 2008
- Figure 38: Types of chocolate purchased for personal consumption, by
household income, May 2008
- Brands
- Key points
- Adults' preferences are more limited
- Figure 39: Brands of chocolate candy preferred by adults, January
2007-November 2007
- Teenagers more likely to choose a wide array of candy
- Figure 40: Brands of non-chocolate candy preferred by teenagers, January
2007-November 2007
- Kids' brand choices more limited than those of teens
- Figure 41: Children's chocolate preferences, January 2007-November 2007
- Purchases for Others
- Key point
- Figure 42: Chocolate purchased for others, by gender, May 2008
- Figure 43: Chocolate purchased for others, by age, May 2008
- Figure 44: Chocolate purchased for others, by household income, May 2008
- Chocolate for Spouses/Significant Others
- Key points
- Figure 45: Reasons for giving chocolate to spouse/signficant other, by
household income, May 2008
- Which holidays?
- Figure 46: Holidays for giving chocolate to spouses/significant others,
May 2008
- Chocolate for Children
- Key points
- Figure 47: Reasons for buying chocolate for children, May 2008
- Which holidays?
- Figure 48: Holidays for giving chocolate to children, May 2008
- Chocolate for Family Members
- Key points
- Figure 49: Reasons for giving chocolate to family members, May 2008
- Which holidays?
- Figure 50: Holidays for which chocolate is given to family members, May
2008
- Chocolate for Friends
- Key pointsFigure 51: Reasons for giving chocolate to friends, May 2008
- Which holidays?
- Figure 52: Holidays for which chocolate is given to friends, May 2008
- Chocolate for Co-workers
- Key points
- Figure 53: Reasons for giving gifts to co-workers, May 2008
- Which holidays?
- Figure 54: Holidays for which chocolate is given to co-workers, May 2008
- Key Purchase Measures
- Consumer insights--seasonal chocolate candy
- Figure 71: Key purchase measures for seasonal chocolate candy, by
household penetration, 2007*
- Valentine's Day chocolate candy
- Brand leaders by penetration
- Figure 72: Key purchase measures for the top Valentine's Day chocolate
candy brands, by household penetration, 2007*
- Easter chocolate candy
- Brand leaders by penetration
- Figure 73: Key purchase measures for the top Easter chocolate candy
brands, by household penetration, 2007*
- Halloween chocolate candy
- Brand leaders by penetration
- Figure 74: Key purrchase measures for the top Halloween chocolate candy
brands, by household penetration, 2007*
- Christmas chocolate candy
- Brand leaders by penetration
- Figure 75: Key purchase measures for the top Christmas chocolate candy
brands, by household penetration 2007*
- Appendix: Other Useful Consumer Tables
- Figure 76: Reasons for buying chocolate for personal consumption in past
year, by gender, May 2008
- Figure 77: Reasons for buying chocolate for personal consumption in past
year, by income, May 2008
- Figure 78: Reasons for purchasing chocolate for personal consumption, by
race/ethnicity, May 2008
- Figure 79: Types of chocolate purchased, by race/ethnicity, May 2008
- Appendix: Trade Associations
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