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SUMMARY
SMS (Short Message Service) was the first killer application that launched China's mobile data market. WAP (Wireless Application Protocol) provides the new engine to unleash consumer demand for the Mobile Internet in China, just as it has in Korea and Japan. Since China has the largest number of mobile phones users in the world (far outnumbering the number of Chinese PC users), most Chinese consumers will increasingly shop, buy and pay for products and services using their mobile phone. WAP is set to follow a dramatic growth trajectory similar to that of SMS in China and i-mode in Japan. SMS is a static, text-based messaging service. Chinese mobile users sent 240 billion of these messages last year. WAP, on the other hand, is entirely new. It is a real-time, online, interactive user experience. More of China's over 300 million mobile users will be able to explore and enjoy these content-rich multimedia services over the next few years. This Norson report explains how "The Shift to WAP" in China offers unique opportunities for international equipment vendors, service & content providers, media & advertising companies, and the global investment community. Key Questions Addressed:- How quickly will WAP services overtake SMS & MMS as the leading mobile consumer service in China?
- Who will profit most from the rapidly growing mass audience for WAP services?
- What new WAP services will be the most popular in China?
- When will WAP mobile Internet users exceed the number of PC-based Internet users in China?
- How did WAP survive early market failures to re-emerge as the hottest new mobile consumer service?
- Which mobile operators and content providers are best positioned for success with Chinese WAP users?
- How will the shift to WAP affect the future share prices of China's publicly listed mobile operators and Internet portals?
Preview of Key Findings- The China Mobile Value-Added Services (MVAS) market, which was worth 2.7 billion USD in 2003, will nearly double in 2004.
- WAP users will jump from just under 10 million in 2003 to reach more than 70 million by 2005
- Revenue for third-party WAP service providers will rise from 25 million USD in 2003 to more than 400 million USD in 2005.
- A host of third-party service providers, including Cota, Hurray, and Tom, are emerging to dominate this green field opportunity.
Major Figures- Comparative Revenue Forecasts for WAP vs. SMS, MMS, IVR, CRBT, JAVA & BREW (2001-2008)
- Total China MVAS (mobile value added services) Revenue and Service Provider MVAS Revenue (2001-2008)
- China Mobile & China Unicom WAP Revenue Forecasts (2003-2005)
- Revenue Forecasts for the Top Six WAP Service Providers (2003-2005)
- China Mobile & China Unicom WAP User Forecasts (2003-2005)
- China WAP Total User Forecast (2003-2005)
- Market Share Percentage for the Top WAP Service Providers (Q3 2003-Q1 2004)
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Executive Summary and Definitions- 1. An Overview of Mobile Value-Added Services in China
- 1.1 Huge User Base and an Improving Mix of Handsets
- 1.1.1 Huge Mobile User Base and Sustained Rapid Growth
- 1.1.2 More Handsets with Advanced MVAS Functionality
- 1.2 Key Characteristics of China\'s MVAS Market.
- 1.2.1 Rapid Market Growth Begins in 2002, SMS Continues to Dominate.
- 1.2.2 Operators Strengthen Their Position in the Value Chain.
- 1.2.3 SPs Move into Advanced MVAS Market and Dive into M&A Activities.
- 1.3 Future Trends in China\'s MVAS Market.
2. Mobile Value-Added Services by Type.- 2.1 MVAS Overview and Revenue Forecast by Service
- 2.2 The SMS SP Market Moves Toward Maturity
- 2.3 MMS Still in Growth Phase, but Potential Limited
- 2.4 IVR, an Old Technology Newly Applied to Mobile
- 2.5 Color Ring BackTones - A Hit Niche Product.
- 2.6 JAVA vs. BREW - Somewhere Down the Road?.
3. The Rise of WAP.- 3.1 Introduction.
- 3.1.1 An Overview of WAP Development
- 3.1.2 Back from the Dead: The 2003 Re-Emergence of WAP
- 3.1.3 WAP Users and Revenue: Hitting Stride in 2004
- 3.2 The New Operator-Centric WAP Value Chain
- 3.3 Mobile Operators and WAP
- 3.3.1 An Overview of Operator WAP strategy
- 3.3.2 Changing Operator-SP-User Relations from SMS to WAP
- 3.3.3 WAP vs. SMS and MMS
- 3.3.4 China Unicom and WAP: Leading Out
- 3.3.5 China Mobile and WAP: Playing Catch Up
- 3.4 The Emerging WAP SP Market
- 3.4.1 Overview.
- 3.4.2 Three Categories of WAP Service Providers
- 3.4.3 WAP SP Market Performance
- 3.5 Drivers and Inhibitors to WAP Development.
- 3.5.1 Drivers of WAP Take-up.
- 3.5.2 WAP Growth Inhibitors
- 3.6 The Future of WAP in China: 6 Key Trends
- 3.6.1 Trend #1: Competition between WAP Specialists and Portals to Intensify
- 3.6.2 Trend#2: WAP SPs Seek Overseas Listings or Become Acquisition Targets.
- 3.6.3 Trend#3: Regional SPs Arise to Cater to Local Taste
- 3.6.4 Trend#4: Services Will Grow Increasingly Specialized
- 3.6.5 Trend#5: WAP SPs Will Seek New Non-Operator Marketing Channels.
- 3.6.6 Trend#6: 3G will Further Push WAP.
4. Company Profiles of Selected WAP SPs.- 4.1 Cota
- 4.2 TOM Online
- 4.3 Hurray!
- 4.4 Sina Corp.
- 4.5 GoodFeel
- 4.6 Tencent
- 4.7 Mtone Wireless
- 4.8 Linktone Ltd.
- 4.9 SkyInfo
List of Exhibits- Exhibit 1: Mainland Mobile Users and Penetration Rates 1996-2008
- Exhibit2 China MVAS Total Revenue and SP Revenue 20012004
- Exhibit 3: Major SP M&A Activities 2003-1H2004
- Exhibit 4: Evolution Sages in the MVAS Market
- Exhibit5 China MVAS Total Revenue and SP Revenue 20012008
- Exhibit 6: SP MVAS Revenue Forecast by Poduct Line 2001-2008
- Exhibit 7: Mainland SMS Tafic 2001-2004
- Exhibit 8: SP Revenue from the SMSMarket 2001-2008F
- Exhibit 9: China MMS SP Revenue 2002-2008
- Exhibit 10: China IVR SPMarket Revenue 2001-2008
- Exhibit 11: China CRBT User Forecast
- Exhibit 12: CRBT SP Revenue 2003-2008
- Exhibit 13: Key JAVA and BREW Events 2002-2004
- Exhibit 14: The WAP Lifecycle in the Chinese Mobile Data Market
- Exhibit 15: WAPUsers 2003-2005(million)
- Exhibit 16: China WAP-based SP Revenue 2003-2005
- Exhibit 17: China WAP Market Value Chain
- Exhibit 18: Operator-SPUser Relations in the SMS Era
- Exhibit 19: Operator-SPUser Relations in the WAPEra
- Exhibit 20:WAP vs. SMS Development Trend Forecast 2003-2008
- Exhibit 21:China Unicom WAPUsers 2003-2005
- Exhibit 22: China Unicom WAPIncome 2003-2005
- Exhibit 23: China Mobile WAP Users 2003-2005
- Exhibit 24: China Mobile WAP Income 2003-2005
- Exhibit 25: China Mobile GPRS Services and Tariffs
- Exhibit 26: Revenue for Top 6 WAP SPs 2003, Half-Yearly Foecast though 2005
- Exhibit 27: Top China Mobile (CMCC) WAP Players by % Revenue 1Q03-1Q04
- Exhibit 28: China Mobile April 2004 WAP SP Content Ranking and Revenue
- Exhibit 29: Top Unicom WAP SPs % Revenue Q303-Q104
- Exhibit 30: China Unicom April 2004 WAP SP Content Ranking and Revenue
- Exhibit 31: Strengths and Weakness o Portals vs. Specialized SPs
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