3G in China - A Pre-launch Overview

SUMMARY

After much delay, China's 3G licenses are expected to be issued during the first half of 2006, with network buildouts are expected soon after. This Norson report provides a clear and comprehensive overview of China's current mobile market, anticipated licensing, and investment forecasts for the next five years.

3G Trials

This report contains a comprehensive look at each round of 3G network equipment trials. By looking at the locations and participating vendors, readers can gain a preview into likely 3G buildout patterns for each operator. Norson analyzes this data on a provincial basis, and by vendor, showing the number of Node Bs and MSC for each of China's 3G trial networks.

3G Licensing

With 3G licenses delayed in part to allow time for the development of TD-SCDMA, the most recent trials indicate that China's domestic 3G standard is finally ready for commercial use.

In what Norson views as the most likely licensing scenario, the Chinese government will decide to place two strong operators in opposition to China Mobile. China Mobile, generally viewed as the operator in the best position heading into 3G, will receive a WCDMA license. China Unicom will keep its CDMA network and be granted a license to upgrade to CDMA2000 1x EV-DO. China Telecom and China Netcom will both receive a separate nationwide TD-SCDMA licenses.

• Executive Summary 1
  • Ex.1 Telecom Operator Restructuring 3
  • Ex.2 Operators After Restructuring 3
  • Ex.3 Equipment Vendors 5
• 1 China Market Overview 10
• 2 3G Testing in China 13
  • 2.1 WCDMA Testing in China 13
  • 2.2 CDMA2000 Testing in China 17
  • 2.3 TD-SCDMA Testing in China19
    • 2.3.1 TD-SCDMA Test21
    • 2.3.2 TD-SCDMA Test Results24
    • 2.3.3 TD-SCDMA Commercial Trials24
• 3 China's Telecom Operators26
  • 3.1 China Mobile26
    • 3.1.1 China Mobile's GSM Network26
    • 3.1.2 China Mobile's 3G Trials30
  • 3.2 China Unicom34
    • 3.2.1 China Unicom's CDMA Network34
    • 3.2.2 China Unicom's CDMA2000 Trials38
    • 3.2.3 China Unicom's GSM Network41
    • 3.2.4 China Unicom's WCDMA Trials45
  • 3.3 China Telecom48
    • 3.3.1 China Telecom's 3G Trials48
  • 3.4 China Netcom53
    • 3.4.1 China Netcom's 3G Trials53
  • 3.5 China Tietong and China Satcom58
• 4 Telecom Operator Restructuring60
  • 4.1 Scenario 1: A Three Player Market, China Netcom Dissolved61
  • 4.2 Scenario 2: A Split TD-SCDMA License62
  • 4.3 Scenario 3: No TD-SCDMA License63
• 5 China's 3G Telecom Operators64
  • 5.1 China Mobile64
    • 5.1.1 China Mobile 3G Forecast67
    • 5.1.2 China Mobile SWOT Analysis71
  • 5.2 China Unicom72
    • 5.2.1 China Unicom 3G Forecast73
    • 5.2.2 China Unicom SWOT Analysis77
  • 5.3 China Telecom78
    • 5.3.1 China Telecom 3G Forecast79
    • 5.3.2 China Telecom SWOT Analysis83
  • 5.4 China Netcom84
• 6 Equipment Vendors85
  • 6.1 2G Market Overview85
  • 6.2 Alcatel Shanghai Bell90
  • 6.3 Datang91
  • 6.4 Ericsson92
  • 6.5 Huawei93
  • 6.6 Motorola94
  • 6.7 Nokia95
  • 6.8 Nortel97
  • 6.9 Siemens98
  • 6.10 ZTE99
  • 6.11 Market Share Forecasts 101
    • 6.11.1 China's WCDMA Market 101
    • 6.11.2 China's CDMA2000 1x EV-DO Market 103
    • 6.11.3 China's TD-SCDMA Market 104
• 7 Norson's Take 105

List of Figures

• Figure Ex-1: Mobile User Forecast, 2006-2010 (M)
• Figure Ex-2: China's Mobile Subscribers, 2001- 2005 (M)
• Figure Ex-3: China Equipment Vendor Market Share, 2004 (%)
• Figure Ex-4: China Vendor Market Share Forecast (%)
• Figure 1-1: China's Telecom Market
• Figure 1-2: China Mobile Penetration Rates Map
• Figure 1-3: China Mobile Penetration Rates by Province (%)
• Figure 2-1: R99 WCDMA System Core Network
• Figure 2-2: R4 Network CS System Construction
• Figure 2-3: R4 WCDMA System Core Network Equipment
• Figure 2-4: R4 IOT Test Construction
• Figure 2-5: The Second Stage CDMA2000 Trial Network Test
• Figure 2-6: TD-SCDMA Alliance Vendors
• Figure 2-7: Domestic and International Vendors' TD-SCDMA Cooperation
• Figure 2-8: General TD-SCDMA Test Solutions in China, 2005
• Figure 2-9: TD-SCDMA Test Classification in China, 2005
• Figure 2-10: China TD-SCDMA Trial Network Test Construction, 2005
• Figure 2-11: TD-SCDMA Handset Tests in China, 2005
• Figure 2-12: China TD-SCDMA Test Terms, 2005
• Figure 3-1: China Mobile GSM Subscribers, 2001- 2005 (M)
• Figure 3-2: China Mobile GSM Subscribers by Province, June 2005 (M)
• Figure 3-3: China Mobile GSM Base Stations by Province, 2005
• Figure 3-4: China Mobile GSM MSC by Province, 2005 (M)
• Figure 3-5: China Mobile 3G Trial Networks by Vendor
• Figure 3-6: China Mobile 3G Trial Networks by Province
• Figure 3-7: China Mobile Trial Networks
• Figure 3-8: China Mobile R4 and R99 Trial Networks by Vendor
• Figure 3-9: China Mobile R99 and R4 Trial Networks
• Figure 3-10: China Unicom CDMA Subscribers, 2001-June 2005 (M)
• Figure 3-11: China Unicom CDMA Subscribers by Province, 2005 (M)
• Figure 3-12: China Unicom CDMA Base Stations by Province, 2004
• Figure 3-13: China Unicom CDMA Mobile Switching Centers, 2004 (M)
• Figure 3-14: China Unicom CDMA2000 Trial Networks by Vendor
• Figure 3-15: China Unicom CDMA2000 Trial Networks by Province, 2005
• Figure 3-16: China Unicom CDMA2000 Trial Networks, 2005
• Figure 3-17: China Unicom GSM Subscribers, 2001- 2005
• Figure 3-18: China Unicom GSM Subscribers by Province, June 2005 (M)
• Figure 3-19: China Unicom GSM Base Stations by Province, 2005
• Figure 3-20: China Unicom GSM MSC by Province, 2005 (M)
• Figure 3-21: China Unicom WCDMA Trial Networks by Vendor
• Figure 3-22: China Unicom WCDMA Trial Networks by Province
• Figure 3-23: China Unicom Trial Networks
• Figure 3-24: China Telecom Geographical Deployment
• Figure 3-25: China Telecom 3G Trial Networks by Vendor
• Figure 3-26: China Telecom WCDMA Trial Networks by Province, 2005
• Figure 3-27: China Telecom 3G Trial Networks
• Figure 3-28: China Telecom R99 and R4 Trial Networks by Vendor
• Figure 3-29: China Telecom R99 and R4 Trial Networks
• Figure 3-30: China Netcom Geographical Deployment
• Figure 3-31: China Netcom WCDMA Trial Networks by Vendor
• Figure 3-32: China Netcom WCDMA Trial Networks by Province
• Figure 3-33: China Netcom 3G Trial Networks
• Figure 3-34: China Netcom R99 and R4 Trial Network by Vendor
• Figure 3-35: China Netcom R99 and R4 Trial Networks
• Figure 4-1: A Three Player Market, China Netcom Dissolved
• Figure 4-2: China Netcom up North, China Telecom down South
• Figure 4-3: TD-SCDMA Not Mature, China Unicom Split Up
• Figure 5-1: China Mobile 3G Network Build out Plan
• Figure 5-2: China Mobile 3G Network Investment, 2005-2010 (RMB B)
• Figure 5-3: China Mobile User Forecast, 2006-2010 (M)
• Figure 5-4: China Mobile Network Capacity Forecast, 2006-2010 (M Lines)
• Figure 5-5: China Mobile WCDMA Revenue Forecast, 2006-2010 (RMB B)
• Figure 5-6: China Mobile SWOT Analysis
• Figure 5-7: China Unicom CDMA2000 Network Investment, 2005-2010 (RMB B)
• Figure 5-8: China Unicom User Forecast, 2006-2010 (M)
• Figure 5-9: China Unicom Network Capacity Forecast, 2006-2010 (M Lines)
• Figure 5-10: China Unicom CDMA2000 Revenue Forecast, 2006-2010 (RMB B)
• Figure 5-11: China Unicom SWOT Analysis
• Figure 5-12: China Telecom TD-SCDMA Network Investment, 2005-2010 (RMB B)
• Figure 5-13: China Telecom User Forecast, 2006-2010 (M Lines)
• Figure 5-14: China Telecom Network Capacity Forecast, 2006-2010 (M Lines)
• Figure 5-15: China Telecom TD-SCDMA Revenue Forecast, 2006-2010 (RMB B)
• Figure 5-16: China Telecom SWOT Analysis
• Figure 5-17: China Netcom SWOT Analysis
• Figure 6-1: China Mobile GSM Vendor BTS Market Share, 2004
• Figure 6-2: China Mobile GSM Vendor MSC Market Share, 2004
• Figure 6-3: China Unicom GSM Vendor BTS Market Share, 2004
• Figure 6-4: China Unicom GSM Vendor MSC Market Share, 2004
• Figure 6-5: China Unicom CDMA Vendor BTS Market Share, 2004
• Figure 6-6: Alcatel Shanghai Bell SWOT Analysis
• Figure 6-7: Datang SWOT Analysis
• Figure 6-8: Ericsson SWOT Analysis
• Figure 6-9: Huawei SWOT Analysis
• Figure 6-10: Motorola SWOT Analysis
• Figure 6-11: Nokia SWOT Analysis
• Figure 6-12: Nortel SWOT Analysis
• Figure 6-13: Siemens SWOT Analysis
• Figure 6-14: ZTE SWOT Analysis
• Figure 6-15: WCDMA Vendors' Comprehensive Competitiveness
• Figure 6-16: WCDMA Vendor Market Share Forecast (%)
• Figure 6-17: CDMA2000 Vendors' Comprehensive Competitiveness
• Figure 6-18: CDMA2000 1x EV-DO Vendor Market Share Forecast (%)
• Figure 7-1: 3G User Forecast, 2006-2010 (M)
• Figure 7-2: 3G Infrastructure Investment and Revenue, 2006-2010 (RMB B)
• Figure 7-3: Annual 3G Network Buildout Investment, 2006-2010 (RMB B)
• Figure 7-4: Accumulated Network Buildout Investment, 2006-2010 (RMB B)
• Figure 7-5: Accumulated Network Buildout Investment per User, 2006-2010 (RMB)