Mobile payment market forecasts

SUMMARY

This report provides a quantitative analysis of the mobile payment market for the 2007- 2012 period. Despite great uncertainties, Ovum has tried to provide a realistic picture of future developments for mobile payments. It follows a recent piece entitled ‘Mobile payments: progressing towards large-scale deployments' which detailed the market trends and key case studies of players and projects in this space.

Ovum forecasts three mobile payment market segments - mobile contactless payments, online shopping and money transfers - and has excluded three types of transactions: mobile content payments, prepaid airtime purchase and international remittances.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

KEY MESSAGES

INTRODUCTION

• DEFINITIONS
  • MOBILE PAYMENT
  • MOBILE BANKING
  • MOBILE COMMERCE
• CONSUMER PAYMENT MARKET TRENDS
  • A TENS-OF-TRILLIONS MARKET
  • CASH IS STILL KING
  • INTERNET E-COMMERCE IS GROWING
  • MANY DO NOT HAVE ACCESS TO FINANCIAL SERVICES
  • INTERNATIONAL REMITTANCES FLOWS KEEP GROWING
• M-PAYMENT MARKET SEGMENTATION
  • MOBILE CONTACTLESS PAYMENTS
  • MONEY TRANSFERS
  • ONLINE SHOPPING
• SCOPE OF OUR M-PAYMENT FORECASTS
  • WHAT IS FORECAST
  • WHAT IS EXCLUDED FROM THE FORECAST
• UNCERTAINTIES OF FORECASTS
• OTHER RELEVANT OVUM REPORTS
  • MARKET DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS
• MOBILE CONTACTLESS PAYMENTS
  • OVERVIEW
  • AVAILABILITY OF NFC-ENABLE PHONES
  • DEVELOPMENT OF CONTACTLESS PAYMENTS
  • ROLLOUTS OF COMMERCIAL MOBILE CONTACTLESS PAYMENT SERVICES
  • THE SPECIFIC CASE OF JAPAN
  • USAGE ASSUMPTIONS
• MONEY TRANSFERS
  • OVERVIEW
  • ACCESS TO BANKING SERVICES
  • SCENARIO IN ‘OVERBANKED' COUNTRIES
  • SCENARIO IN ‘UNBANKED' COUNTRIES
  • SCENARIO IN ‘UNDERBANKED' COUNTRIES
  • USAGE ASSUMPTIONS
• ONLINE SHOPPING
  • OVERVIEW
  • FROM E-COMMERCE TO M-COMMERCE
  • M-PAYMENT FORECASTS
• M-PAYMENT MARKET OVERVIEW
• MOBILE CONTACTLESS PAYMENTS
• MONEY TRANSFERS
• ONLINE SHOPPING

FIGURES:

• FIGURE 1: FORECASTS OF NFC-ENABLED PHONE SHIPMENTS BY REGION 2008- 2012
• FIGURE 2: ADOPTION OF MOBILE CONTACTLESS PAYMENTS
• FIGURE 3: JAPAN: MOBILE CONTACTLESS PAYMENT MARKET 2007- 2012 ($ BILLION)
• FIGURE 4: THE GLOBAL MARKET OPPORTUNITY FOR CONTACTLESS PAYMENTS
• FIGURE 5: ANNUAL AMOUNT SPENT BY USERS OF MOBILE CONTACTLESS PAYMENTS ($)
• FIGURE 6: PERCENTAGE OF THE ADULT POPULATION WITH ACCESS TO FINANCIAL SERVICES
• FIGURE 7: CORRELATION BETWEEN MOBILE PENETRATION AND ACCESS TO FINANCIAL SERVICES
• FIGURE 8: GLOBAL B2C E-COMMERCE MARKET
• FIGURE 9: AVERAGE ADOPTION OF MOBILE WALLET SERVICES BY UNBANKED MOBILE SUBSCRIBERS
• FIGURE 11: M-PAYMENT MARKET FORECASTS - BY APPLICATION
• FIGURE 12: M-PAYMENT MARKET FORECASTS - BY REGION
• FIGURE 13: MOBILE CONTACTLESS PAYMENTS REVENUES FORECASTS - BY REGION
• FIGURE 14: MOBILE CONTACTLESS PAYMENTS USER FORECAST - BY REGION
• FIGURE 15: MONEY TRANSFERS VOLUMES FORECASTS - BY REGION
• FIGURE 16: MONEY TRANSFERS USER FORECASTS - BY REGION
• FIGURE 17: ONLINE SHOPPING REVENUES FORECASTS - BY REGION
• FIGURE 18: ONLINE SHOPPING USER FORECAST - BY REGION

TABLES:

• TABLE 1: CONTACTLESS PAYMENT GROUPS
• TABLE 2: ESTIMATED ROLLOUT DATES FOR COMMERCIAL NFC PAYMENT SERVICES
• TABLE 3: COUNTRY CLASSIFICATION FOR BANKING STATUS
• TABLE 4: SHARE OF ONLINE SHOPPING ORIGINATING FROM MOBILE DEVICES
• TABLE 5: M-PAYMENT MOBILE FORECASTS - BY APPLICATION ($ BILLION)
• TABLE 6: M-PAYMENT MARKET FORECASTS - BY REGION ($ BILLION)
• TABLE 7: MOBILE CONTACTLESS PAYMENTS REVENUES FORECASTS - BY REGION ($ BILLION)
• TABLE 8: MOBILE CONTACTLESS PAYMENTS USER FORECAST - BY REGION (MILLIONS)
• TABLE 9: MONEY TRANSFERS VOLUMES FORECASTS - BY REGION ($ BILLION)
• TABLE 10: MONEY TRANSFERS USER FORECASTS - BY REGION (MILLION)
• TABLE 11: ONLINE SHOPPING REVENUES FORECASTS - BY REGION ($ BILLION)
• TABLE 12: ONLINE SHOPPING USER FORECAST - BY REGION (MILLION)