Broadband Access 2004: An Assessment of Global Demand for Broadband Access by Technology and Geographic Region

SUMMARY

Expectations of broadband development have followed the highs of the Internet bubble and subsequent technology crash. However, investment in broadband has continued to increase even through recessionary times for the telecom industry, as consumer familiarity and growing dependence on the Internet have increased demand for a better user experience. Emerging from the technology recession of 2001 -- 2003, broadband investment is set to increase with renewed vigour.

This report explores the key reasons for the residential and business switch to broadband from dial-up. Which access technologies are applicable in which markets? Which disruptive technologies pose a competitive threat to incumbent service providers? Which strategies should they employ to reduce subscriber churn, in the face of new market entrants?

Steady increases in Internet penetration and the development of new applications have provided the foundation for broadband growth. Expensive digital lines continue to lose market share to cheaper technologies. Which future technologies are set to gain market share in the global broadband market? What are the necessary success strategies, in different regional markets and how large are these markets likely to become ?

In addition to focusing on market developments and technological issues, this report forecasts the market opportunity over the period 2003 to 2010 for business and residential broadband Internet Access in key regions of the World :

• North America
• Europe
• Asia Pacific
• Latin America
• Africa and ROW

The forecasts of this study include subscribers, service revenue, customer premise equipment (CPE) sales, and CPE revenue.

Chapter 3 thoroughly defines broadband, identifying the key factors driving demand and describing broadband access service markets.

Chapter 4 focuses on broadband access technology, beginning with an overview of the Internet and then turning to an examination of individual broadband access technologies and future developments.

In Chapter 5, business case considerations, such as broadband pricing models and obstacles and enablers of broadband access success are examined.

Based on the information from the preceding chapters, the study concludes with a detailed presentation of forecast results and conclusions in Chapter 6.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

• 1.1 Report Scope and Structure
• 1.2 Data Sources and Methodology
• 1.3 Broadband Market
• 1.4 Broadband Technology
• 1.5 Forecast Summary
• 1.6 Conclusions

Chapter 2 - Introduction

• 2.1 Overview of Study
• 2.2 Study Objective
• 2.3 Scope
• 2.4 Methodology
• 2.5 Sources of Information

Chapter 3 - Overview of the Market For Broadband Services

• 3.1 What Exactly is Broadband?
  • 3.1.1 What is the difference between applications and services?
  • 3.1.2 What are the core services delivered over Broadband Networks?
    • 3.1.2.1 Voice (Telephony)
    • 3.1.2.2 High-speed Internet Access
    • 3.1.2.3 Broadcast Audio (Radio)
    • 3.1.2.4 Broadcast Video (Television)
    • 3.1.2.5 Broadcast Data (IP Multicast)
    • 3.1.2.6 Video-conferencing
    • 3.1.2.7 Audio/Video/Data on Demand
    • 3.1.2.8 Multiplayer Gaming
    • 3.1.2.9 Virtual Private Networks
  • 3.1.3 How do units of sale differ between various services?
• 3.2 What are the key factors driving the growth of Broadband?
  • 3.2.1 How fast is the Internet growing?
  • 3.2.2 What are the trends in Internet usage?
    • 3.2.2.1 North America
    • 3.2.2.2 Latin and South America
    • 3.2.2.3 Europe
    • 3.2.2.4 Asia and the Pacific Rim
    • 3.2.2.5 Africa/ROW
• 3.3 What Are the Key Markets for Broadband Services?
  • 3.3.1 Business Addressable Market
  • 3.3.2 Residential Addressable Market

Chapter 4 - Broadband Access Technology

• 4.1 How is the Internet infrastructure constructed?
  • 4.1.1 The Internet Protocol
  • 4.1.2 Basic Infrastructure Components
  • 4.1.3 Logical vs. Physical Topologies for Internet and Data Networks
• 4.2 Broadband Access Methods and Technologies
  • 4.2.1 Leased Line Technologies
  • 4.2.2 Digital Subscriber Line (DSL) Technologies
  • 4.2.3 Cable Technologies
  • 4.2.4 Wireless Technologies
  • 4.2.5 Satellite Technologies
  • 4.2.6 FTTH
  • 4.2.7 Gigabit Ethernet
  • 4.2.8 Broadband over Powerline (BPL)

Chapter 5 - Broadband Access Business Case

• 5.1 How is Pricing Determined for Broadband Access?
  • 5.1.1 The Economic Model for the Internet
  • 5.1.2 Economics and issues for flat-rate pricing models
  • 5.1.3 Economics and issues for usage-based pricing models
• 5.2 What are the Major Market Constraints for Broadband Access Networks?
  • 5.2.1 Financial/economic factors
  • 5.2.2 Regulatory factors
• 5.3 What are the Critical Success Factors for Broadband Access?
  • 5.3.1 Availability
  • 5.3.2 Port speed
  • 5.3.3 Service level quality
  • 5.3.4 Rapid deployment/installation
  • 5.3.5 Price targets
  • 5.3.6 Branding

Chapter 6 - Forecast Results for Broadband Access

• 6.1 Forecast Methodology
  • 6.1.1 Key Assumptions
• 6.2 Forecast Summary
  • 6.2.1 Subscribers
  • 6.2.2 Service Revenue
  • 6.2.3 CPE Revenue
• 6.3 Business Broadband Market
  • 6.3.1 Forecast Summary
  • 6.3.2 Description & Derivation of Inputs
  • 6.3.3 Regional Forecasts by Technology Type
  • 6.3.4 Residential Broadband Market
• 6.4 Summary and Conclusions