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SUMMARY
This report analyzes 3G licensing scenarios for the Chinese market, examining
each scenario's implication for market share, mobile data adoption and overall
market development.
What's next for China's 3G licensing? The country's smorgasbord of mobile
standards and political support for the home-grown but unproven TD-SCDMA have
long combined to delay a closely watched 3G licensing process. With trials for
TD-SCDMA technology reportedly failing, China's path to mobile next generation
services has become even blurrier, with major implications for the future of
market's four largest carriers, as well as infrastructure suppliers seeking to
capitalize on 3G investment. This report analyzes 3G licensing scenarios for
the Chinese market, examining each scenario's implication for market share,
mobile data adoption and overall market development.
The report will review the following salient points:
- What are the possible and likely 3G licensing scenarios for the Chinese
market?
- What are the likely consolidation scenarios for the Chinese market?
- Who holds the cards for the ultimate licensing decision? What is the
framework of the decision-making process?
- What lessons can one draw from the shuffle of executive management at the
top of China's main carriers?
- Can TD-SCDMA survive?
- What does 3G licensing mean for the future of PHS?
- Will China Unicom survive as one entity?
- Which licenses will fixed carriers Netcom and China Telecom ultimately
receive?
- What are Pyramid's subscriber and revenue forecasts for the ultimate
licensing scenario?
- Exhibit 1: 3G Licensing Decision-Making Bodies
- Exhibit 2: China 3G Timeline
- Exhibit 3: China's Telecom Industry Shuffle
- Exhibit 4: Subscribers by Technology (000)
- Exhibit 5: Mobile Data Users (000)
- Exhibit 6: China 3G Infrastructure Spending, 2004-2009
TABLE OF CONTENTS
List of Exhibits
Acronyms and Abbreviations
Companies Mentioned in This Report
Executive Summary
- Section 1: The Who, What, When, Where and How of It All 2
- Section 2: Licensing Objectives: Looking Beyond 3G 6
- Section 3: Licensing Scenarios 7
- 3.1 Licensing Scenario 1: The Status Quo 7
- 3.2 Licensing Scenario 2: Consolidating Telecom and Netcom 8
- 3.3 Licensing Scenario 3: Breaking Up Unicom 9
- Section 4: The Future of TD-SCDMA and PHS 10
- 4.1 TD-SCDMA: Holding Everything Up 10
- 4.2 PHS: Here to Stay 10
- Section 5: Market Forecasts 12
- 5.1 Service Adoption Dynamics 12
- 5.2 Capital Expenditure Dynamics 13
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