IEEE 802.3ba - Is it the Right Time? Assessment: Technology and Market for High-Speed Data Systems

SUMMARY

Research Methodology

Considerable research was done using the Internet. Information from various Web sites was studied and analyzed; evaluation of publicly available marketing and technical publications was also conducted. Telephone conversations and interviews were held with industry analysts, technical experts and executives. In addition to these interviews and primary research, secondary sources were used to develop a more complete mosaic of the market landscape, including industry and trade publications, conferences and seminars.

The overriding objective throughout the work has been to provide valid and relevant information. This has led to a continual review and update of the information content.

Target Audience

This report provides the analysis of a complicated landscape for high-speed (40 Gb/s and 100 Gb/s) optical systems. This report is useful for service providers, vendors, network operators and managers, Enterprise IT staff, investors and end users seeking to gain a deeper understanding of the gradual migration various types of the network towards such high speeds and learn about their opportunities and barriers.

The end users can gain a more detailed understanding of product's market and capabilities as well as the economics of using these technologies products to improve cost efficiency.

This report addresses the emerging of high-rate fiber optics transmission systems. The systems with 40 Gb/s speed appeared in a market in early 2000, coinciding with the beginning of the worst in history downturn in the telecommunications development, research and production. In that hostile climate, high-rate transmission was met without enthusiasm-extra fiber capacity was more than enough.

At the present time, the industry is witnesses the rising interest for high-rate systems and it seems that the advent of 40 Gb/s pipes in carrier networks has finally arrived, with Verizon's announcement at OFC/NFOEC in March of a 40 Gb/s link between New York and Washington. 2007 was the first year when sizable volume of 40 Gb/s units was shipped by the industry.

There are several factors in re-discovering attractiveness of such transmission; the most important from them are:

• Constantly raising demand for data spectrum
• Increasing fiber plant bandwidth utilization
• Standardization activity.

Among areas the most demanding for high-rate systems are Internet data and entertainment traffic, such as HD and SHD format signals that require significant bandwidth (measured in Gb/s) for each wired household.

We are still far from fiber bandwidth exhaustion, but there are regions with a critical value of 65%-70% of fiber plant bandwidth utilization; carriers are looking for alternatives to lying new fiber.

Major standardization organizations (IEEE, ITU and other) formed working groups and formulated tasks for standardization of Ethernet-based and SONET/SDH-based 40 Gb/s and 100 Gb/s interfaces. The tasks are planned to be completed in the 2010 time frame.

Based on these factors, the authors of this report analyzed the status of high-rate systems industry with the emphasis on:

• Technology specifics
• PMD characteristics
• Marketing trends
• Standardization activity.

It is authors' opinion that, at the present time, we are witnesses the process when the high-rate industry is defining itself. The IEEE 802.3ba standard (as well as other standards for 40 Gb/s and 100 Gb/s systems) is promised to be ratified in a couple of years; the industry already exists, and it is preparing to satisfy the demand that, as per our estimate, can coincide with the mature state of standardization.

The report analyzes technological and marketing features of 40 Gb/s and 100 Gb/s transmission systems. It is envisioned that such systems may safer from PMD, and the report addresses this issue. The industry expects that PMD compensators will be a part of high-rate transmission systems; so far, manufacturers are very cautious to spend money on such compensators development, and only a few mechanical products are in the market. Report provides market estimates for 40 Gb/s and 100 Gb/s production (2004-2013).

Altogether, authors believe that the next decade will be the time of transitioning from 10 Gb/s systems to high-rate systems (40 Gb/s and 100 Gb/s).

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1.0 Introduction

• 1.1 Recent History
• 1.2 Standardization Activity
• 1.3 Challenges and Drivers
• 1.4 Goals
• 1.5 Dispersion
• 1.6 Demand
• 1.7 Scope
• 1.8 Research Methodology
• 1.9 Target Audience

2.0 Standardization Process

• 2.1 IEEE
• 2.2 ITU-T
• 2.3 Co-operation
• 2.4 Interest Group
• 2.5 Other
• 2.6 “Road to 100G” Alliance
• 2.7 X40
• 2.8 SSR-40
• 2.9 Standardization Drivers and Issues: 100 Gb/s

3.0 Impairments

4.0 High-rate Systems and PMD

• 4.1 General
• 4.2 Short History - 40 Gb/s Transmission
• 4.3 Status
  • 4.3.1 Directions
  • 4.3.2 Specifics
• 4.4 40G Transmission Technologies
  • 4.4.1 Perspectives
• 4.5 Issues
  • 4.5.1 ICs
  • 4.5.2 Optics

5.0 Applications

6.0 PMD Nature and Characteristics

• 6.1 Challenge
• 6.2 Effect
  • 6.2.1 Cause and Nature
  • 6.2.2 Statistics
  • 6.2.3 Penalties

7.0 PMD Effect and Compensation Methods

• 7.1 General
• 7.2 Network Design
• 7.3 Compensation Techniques
  • 7.3.1 Optical Compensation
    • 7.3.1.1 Standards
    • 7.3.1.2 Methods
    • 7.3.1.3 Classification Based on Order of Compensation
    • 7.3.1.4 Example
    • 7.3.1.5 Details
• 7.4 Electronics Methods
• 7.5 Mode Coupling - Fiber Method
• 7.6 Polarization Maintaining Fiber
  • 7.6.1 Fiber Types
  • 7.6.2 Fiber PMD Audits
• 7.7 Increasing PMD Tolerance
• 7.8 “Universal” Compensator
• 7.9 PMD and Specifics of High-Speed Systems

8.0 Market Estimate

• 8.1 Present Time
  • 8.1.1 Core IP Networking Drivers
  • 8.1.2 From 40 Gb/s to 100 Gb/s
  • 8.1.3 Market Characteristics
• 8.2 PMDC Market Drivers
  • 8.2.1 CAPEX Savings
  • 8.2.2 OPEX Savings
  • 8.2.3 Technological Factors
• 8.3 Market Forecast
  • 8.3.1 Model Assumptions
  • 8.3.2 Analysis
    • 8.3.2.1 Market Estimate for High-rate Systems
    • 8.3.2.2 PMDC Market

9.0 PMDC Market Players

• Agere Systems (In 2007, merged in the LSI Corp.)
• Agilent (Adaptif Photonics)
• General Photonics
• OZ OPTICS
• StrataLight

10.0 Manufactures: 40 Gb/s Components

• Applied Micro Circuits Corp. (AMCC)
• API-Picometrix
• Avalon Microelectronics
• Avanex (Acquired Alcatel Optronics)
• Bay Microsystems
• Big Bear (Acquired by Finisar)
• Bookham
• CyOptics
• CalypTech
• Centellax
• CoreOptics
• Corning
• Covega
• IBM (in collaboration with Cisco)
• Inphi
• Infinera
• Intel
• JDSU
• JGKB Photonics
• Hitachi
• Finisar
• Kailight Photonics (acquired by Optium)
• MergeOptics
• Optoplex
• Oki Semiconductor
• ReflexPhotonic
• SMI
• StrataLight
• T-Networks (Acquired by SyOptics in 2007)

11.0 Manufactures: 40 Gb/s Platforms

• Adva
• Ciena
• Cisco
• Infinera
• Juniper
• Lucent (Alcatel-Lucent)
• Mintera
• NEC
• StrataLight

12.0 Conclusions

FIGURES:

• Figure 1: 40 Gb/s Transmission and PMD
• Figure 2: DGD Illustration
• Figure 3: 40 Gb/s - Allowable PMD
• Figure 4: Receiver sensitivity Penalty (A=0.5)
• Figure 5: Receiver Sensitivity Penalty (A=0.3)
• Figure 6: Optical Adaptive PMDC
• Figure 7: Estimate of Telecommunications Spending (2006)
• Figure 8: Illustration of PMDC Utilization Saving
• Figure 9: Estimate for 40 Gb/s Market ($M)
• Figure 10: Market Estimate: 100 Gb/s Systems ($M)

TABLES:

• Table 1: Routers
• Table 2: PMD Limits
• Table 3: Comparison
• Table 4: 40 Gb/s Equipment Distribution (initial market)