Green Energy in the US: Renewable investment, capacity growth and future outlook

SUMMARY

The future of power generation in the US is at an interesting cross-road; on the one hand, cheap generation technologies such as coal and natural gas fired plants are well positioned to dominate future power generation if the current legislative and regulatory environments persists. On the other hand, the increasing public and political concern about climate change has made it likely that legislative changes that usher in some form of price on carbon emission is imminent. In addition, the US is taking the lead in establishing RPS measures to encourage wider use of greener power. ‘Green Energy in the US: Renewable investment, capacity growth and future outlook’ is a new report published by Business Insights that assesses the outlook for renewable energy in the US and analyzes each of the key renewable technologies. This new report examines the current market, assesses the key drivers and resistors and forecasts future potential growth areas. Assess the future prospects and investment potential for renewable technologies in the US with this new report.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive Summary

• Market development
• Wind power
• Solar power
• Hydropower
• Geothermal power
• Biopower
• Ocean power
• Outlook
• Abbreviations

Chapter 1 Market development

• Summary
• Overview of the US electricity infrastructure
• Generation and installed capacity
• Sectoral distribution of generation
• Sales, revenue, and average retail price
• Overview of renewable energy in the US
• Background
• Installed capacity and growth of renewables
• Drivers of renewable energy
• Production tax credit (PTC)
• State level Renewable energy Portfolio Standards (RPS)
• Growing public support for action on climate change
• Increasing political will to address climate change
• Increasing corporate activism
• Increasing investments
• Resistors of renewable energy
• Failure to price carbon dioxide emissions
• Licensing and permitting issues
• Environmental issues
• Discontinuity in PTC
• Transmission issues
• Comparative economics
• Global comparison

Chapter 2 Wind power

• Summary
• Overview
• Current scenario
• Installed capacity and generation
• Global comparison
• State level analysis
• Key players
• Economics
• Drivers of wind power
• Continuity in PTC
• Strong public and political support
• Increasing economic competitiveness of wind power
• Resistors of wind power
• Lack of continuity in the PTC
• Environmental issues
• Transmission constraints and costs
• Constraints in the supply of turbines
• Wind power potential and outlook
• Wind Power Potential
• Outlook for wind power

Chapter 3 Solar power

• Summary
• Overview
• Current scenario
• Installed capacity and generation
• Global comparison
• State level analysis
• Key players
• Economics
• Drivers of solar power
• The Federal Investment Tax Credit
• The “President's Solar America Initiative”
• California Solar Initiative
• Increasing corporate interest in solar power
• Increased VC funding in solar power
• State level RPS Targets
• Resistors of solar power
• Shortage of silicon
• High cost
• Solar power potential and outlook
• Solar power potential
• Outlook for solar power

Chapter 4 Hydropower

• Summary
• Overview
• Current scenario
• Installed capacity and generation
• Global comparison
• State level analysis
• Key players
• Economics
• Drivers of hydropower
• Licensing reforms
• Inclusion of incremental hydropower under PTC
• The DOE Hydropower Program
• Resistors of hydropower
• Licensing issues due to environmental concerns
• Capital intensive but lacking incentives
• Hydropower potential and outlook
• Hydropower potential
• Outlook for hydropower

Chapter 5 Geothermal power

• Summary
• Overview
• Current scenario
• Installed capacity and generation
• Global comparison
• State level analysis
• Key players
• Economics
• Drivers of geothermal power
• Introduction of PTC for geothermal
• DOE's Geothermal Technologies Program
• Geothermal Resource Exploration and Development Program
• Increased environmental concerns
• Resistors of geothermal power
• Short time horizon for PTC
• Leasing issues
• Cost constraints and transmission issues
• Scant research funding
• Geothermal power potential and outlook
• Geothermal power potential
• Outlook for geothermal power

Chapter 6 Biopower

• Summary
• Overview
• Current scenario
• Installed capacity and generation
• Global comparison
• Key players
• Economics
• Drivers of biopower
• Attractive economics of co-firing
• Environmentally friendly power generaton
• Employment generation
• DOE biopower program
• Resistors of biopower
• Lack of subsidies or any strong incentive program
• Cost constraints
• Constraints in the supply of raw material
• Biopower potential and outlook
• Biopower potential
• Outlook for biopower

Chapter 7 Ocean power

• Summary
• Overview
• Current scenario
• Global comparison
• Key players
• Economics
• Drivers of ocean power
• Energy Policy Act of 2005
• State and city government initiatives
• Private investments
• Resistors of ocean power
• Lack of federal support
• Siting and leasing issues
• Cost constraints
• Ocean power potential and outlook
• Ocean power potential
• Outlook for ocean power

Chapter 8 Future outlook

• Summary
• Outlook for the US electricity sector
• Outlook for renewables
• EIA outlook
• Alternative scenarios
• Abbreviations
• Index

List of Figures

• Figure 1.1: Net generation shares by energy source, 2006
• Figure 1.2: US electric power industry, net summer capacity, 2005
• Figure 1.3: Net generation shares by sector, 2006
• Figure 1.4: Crude oil spot prices, 1982-2006
• Figure 1.5: Net generation by energy source, 2006
• Figure 1.6: CAGR (2001-2005) of various energy sources in the US
• Figure 1.7: RPS map as of April, 2007
• Figure 1.8: Media coverage about climate change
• Figure 1.9: Global comparison in terms of installed capacity, 2005
• Figure 2.10: Cumulative installed capacity (MW)
• Figure 2.11: Top 5 countries by cumulative installed capacity (MW), December 2006
• Figure 2.12: Top 5 countries by new installed capacity (MW), December 2006
• Figure 2.13: Leading states by cumulative capacity as of December 2006
• Figure 2.14: Cumulative installed capacity (MW) of states, December 2006
• Figure 2.15: Turbine manufacturer market shares in the US (2005)
• Figure 2.16: Average cost/kWh of wind-generated electricity
• Figure 2.17: Impact of PTC on wind power capacity additions
• Figure 2.18: Wind resource map for the US
• Figure 3.19: Cumulative installed capacity (MW)
• Figure 3.20: Top 3 countries by cumulative installed solar capacity (MW)
• Figure 3.21: Key markets by new installed solar capacity (MW), December 2006
• Figure 3.22: US PV market 2005
• Figure 3.23: Solar set-asides of states
• Figure 3.24: Solar PV manufacturers' market shares in US (2004)
• Figure 3.25: Technology cost reduction goals for residential PV systems
• Figure 3.26: Solar resource map for the US
• Figure 3.27: Forecasts for installed capacity and costs
• Figure 4.28: Cumulative installed capacity (MW)
• Figure 4.29: Net generation (bn kWh)
• Figure 4.30: Total average electric power from hydroelectric plants
• Figure 4.31: Top 5 countries by hydroelectric consumption, 2005
• Figure 4.32: Leading states by cumulative capacity as of December 2005
• Figure 4.33: State ranking and percentage of total electric power generation in the US
• Figure 4.34: Ownership of hydroelectric plants in the US
• Figure 4.35: DOE Hydropower Program
• Figure 4.36: Feasible project hydropower potential
• Figure 4.37: Generation, hydropower vs. other renewables, 1990-2030
• Figure 5.38: Cumulative installed capacity (MW)
• Figure 5.39: Top 5 countries by cumulative installed capacity (MW), December 2005
• Figure 5.40: Leading states by cumulative capacity 2006
• Figure 5.41: Geothermal existing plant locations
• Figure 5.42: Geothermal resource map for the US
• Figure 5.43: Geothermal potential by 2025
• Figure 5.44: Estimated earth temperature at 6 .5 km depth
• Figure 6.45: Cumulative installed capacity (MW) and Net generation (kWh)
• Figure 6.46: Biopower generation market shares in the US (2005)
• Figure 6.47: Cost of electricity: biomass gasification combined-cycle
• Figure 6.48: Biopower capacity projections, 2000-2020
• Figure 6.49: Biomass resources US
• Figure 6.50: Nonhydroelectric renewable electricity generation by energy source, 2004-2030
• Figure 7.51: Ocean energy resource map for the US
• Figure 8.52: Electricity sales by sector, 1980-2030
• Figure 8.53: Net Generation by Energy Source, 2005-2030
• Figure 8.54: Electricity generation capacity additions by fuel type, 2006-2030
• Figure 8.55: Outlook to 2030, Reference case scenario
• Figure 8.56: Generation, Hydropower vs. other renewables, 1990-2030

List of Tables

• Table 1.1: Cost parameters of electricity sources
• Table 2.2: Largest wind farms operating in the US, as of December, 2006
• Table 2.3: Top 10 states for wind energy potential in the US
• Table 3.4: Federal tax credits in the US
• Table 4.5: Largest hydroelectricity dams in the US
• Table 4.6: Costs parameters of hydro technologies
• Table 4.7: Costs parameters of hydro technologies
• Table 5.8: Largest geothermal projects operating in the US
• Table 5.9: Cost parameters of a geothermal power plant
• Table 5.10: Top 10 states for geothermal energy potential in the US
• Table 5.11: Developing projects by state, as of November 2006
• Table 7.12: Projects in progress for wave energy as of June, 2006
• Table 7.13: Projects in progress for tidal energy as of June, 2006
• Table 7.14: Capital cost of wave energy power plants
• Table 8.15: Renewable energy generation, GWh, Reference Case