The Economics of Rare Earths and Yttrium, 13th edition, 2007

SUMMARY

The new Roskill report on The Economics of Rare Earths and Yttrium will be published in October 2007 and will provide up-to-date analysis of resources, supply, demand, trade and prices. More than 100 detailed tables and figures provide access to all the data you need at a glance.

There has been a significant change in the balance of supply and demand for rare earth minerals in the past three years. Between 2003/04 and 2005/06 there was a shift from a situation of surplus supply to one of surplus demand due to a rapid increase in consumption and the constraints placed on Chinese supply. Mine production in 2006 is estimated to have been around 155,000tREO compared with total sales of around 105,000tREO.

While a theoretical yield of 75% would suggest an adequate mine supply this disregards the high growth in demand for neodymium, which results in actual mineral requirement of 160 170,000tpy REO. The shortfall has been met by a draw down of producer and consumer stocks. Meanwhile stocks of other rare earths, particularly cerium, continue to grow.

In recent years the growth in apparent global demand for processed rare earths has been 8-9%pa, driven largely by average annual growth rates in China in excess of 17%. As an increasing proportion of Chinese supply of REO is consumed within China the potential for a shortfall of supply in the rest of the world increases. This has focused attention on the re-opening of the Molycorp operation in Mountain Pass, probable increased production of loparite from the Kola Peninsula, Lynas Corp's plans to process Mount Weld ore in Australia and other potential sources such as the projects at Nolans Bore, Hoidas Lake and Thor Lake.

This new report from Roskill provides a detailed examination of recent developments in the supply of rare earths from China and evaluates prospective producers in the rest of the world. It tracks the fastest growing markets for rare earths in magnets and metal alloys and reviews the impact of the move to flat screen displays on phosphor markets. Potential new applications for rare earths are reviewed and their impact on the current imbalance in demand for rare earth elements evaluated.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Summary

2. Introduction

3. Occurrence and reserves

• 3.1 Mineral resources and reserves
• 3.2 Occurrence
  • 3.2.1 Bastnaesite
  • 3.2.2 Ion adsorption ores
  • 3.2.3 Monazite
  • 3.2.4 Xenotime
  • 3.2.5 Other sources
• 3.3 Reserves
  • 3.3.1 Rare Earth Reserves
  • 3.3.2 Yttrium Reserves

4. Mining and processing

• 4.1 Rare earth ores
  • 4.1.1 Bastnaesite
  • 4.1.2 Ion adsorption clays
  • 4.1.3 Monazite
    • 4.1.3.1 Monazite Ore Separation
    • 4.1.3.2 Alkaline processing of monazite
    • 4.1.3.3 Acid processing of monazite
  • 4.1.4 Xenotime
  • 4.1.5 Apatite
  • 4.1.6 Loparite
  • 4.1.7 Other sources
• 4.2 Purification and extraction of rare earth oxides
• 4.3 Radioactivity

5. World production of rare earths

• 5.1 Rare earth minerals
• 5.2 Processed rare earths

6. Production and processing of rare earths by country and company

• 6.1 Australia
  • 6.1.1 Reserves
  • 6.1.2 Alkane Exploration Limited (Dubbo Zirconia Project)
  • 6.1.3 Arafura Resources NL (Nolans Project)
  • 6.1.4 Lynas Corporation Ltd (Mt Weld Project)
• 6.2 Austria
  • 6.2.1 Treibacher Industrie AG (Treibacher)
• 6.3 Brazil
• 6.4 Canada
  • 6.4.1 Avalon Ventures Ltd (Thor Lake Project)
  • 6.4.2 Great Western Minerals Group Ltd (Hoidas Lake Project)
  • 6.4.3 Neo Material Technologies Inc.
  • 6.4.4 VMS Ventures (Eden Lake Project)
• 6.5 China
  • 6.5.1 Reserves
  • 6.5.2 Recent administrative developments in China
  • 6.5.3 Production of rare earth-containing minerals
  • 6.5.4 Production of processed rare earths
  • 6.5.5 Major rare earth mining and processing enterprises in Inner Mongolia and Gansu
    • 6.5.5.1 Baotou Iron & Steel and Rare Earths Company (Group) Ltd (Baogang)
    • 6.5.5.2 Baogang Rare Earth (formerly Baotou Rare Earth Hi-Tech Co. Ltd)
    • 6.5.5.3 Baotou Huamei Rare Earth Hi-Tech Co., Ltd (Huamei)
    • 6.5.5.4 Inner Mongolia Rare Earth Ovonic Metal Hydride Co. Ltd (Baotou Ovonic)
    • 6.5.5.5 Baotou Tianjin Seimi Powder Company (BTSP)
    • 6.5.5.6 Baotou Research Institute for Rare Earths
    • 6.5.5.7 Baotou Hefa Rare Earths Science & Technology Development Co. Ltd
    • 6.5.5.8 Baotou Jinmeng Rare Earth Co. Ltd
    • 6.5.5.9 Baotou Qitong Rare Earth Company (Qitong)
    • 6.5.5.10 Baotou Rhodia Rare Earths Co. Ltd
    • 6.5.5.11 Baotou Santoku Battery Material Company (BSBM)
    • 6.5.5.12 Gansu Rare Earth New Materials Co. Ltd (GRENM)
  • 6.5.6 Major mining and processing enterprises in Sichuan
    • 6.5.6.1 Mianning Beida Founder Rare Earth Co. Ltd
    • 6.5.6.2 Mianning County Maoyuan Rare Earth Group (MOM)
    • 6.5.6.3 Mianning Fanxing Rare Earth Group
    • 6.5.6.4 Leshan Shenghe Rare Earth Science and Technology
  • 6.5.7 Major rare earth mining and processing enterprises in Jiangxi, Guangdong, Fujian & Hunan
    • 6.5.7.1 Guangdong Zhujiang Rare Earths Co. Ltd (formerly the Zhujiang Smelter)
    • 6.5.7.2 Guangdong Fuyuan New Material Co. (GFNM)
    • 6.5.7.3 Ganzhou Qiandong Industrial Group (GQD)
    • 6.5.7.4 Ganzhou Zhaori Rare Earth New Materials Co. Ltd
    • 6.5.7.5 Jiangxi Golden Century Advanced Materials (JGC)
    • 6.5.7.6 Jiangxi South Rare Earth Hi-Tech (JSRE)
  • 6.5.8 Major mining and processing enterprises in Jiangsu, Shanghai, Shandong and other provinces
    • 6.5.8.1 Aluminium Corporation of China Group (Chinalco)
    • 6.5.8.2 China Rare Earth Holdings Ltd
    • 6.5.8.3 China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC)
    • 6.5.8.4 Liyang Rhodia Founder Rare Earth New Material Co. Ltd
    • 6.5.8.5 Neo Material Technologies Inc. (Neo Materials)
  • 6.5.9 Foreign trade
• 6.6 Estonia
• 6.7 France
  • 6.7.1 Rhodia Electronics and Catalysis
• 6.8 Germany
• 6.9 India
  • 6.9.1 Reserves
  • 6.9.2 Production
    • 6.9.2.1 Indian Rare Earths Ltd. (IRE)
    • 6.9.2.2 Kerala Minerals and Metals Ltd (KMM)
    • 6.9.2.3 Mishra Dhatu Nigan Ltd (MIDHANI)
• 6.10 Japan
  • 6.10.1 Leading downstream processors
    • 6.10.1.1 Anan Kasei
    • 6.10.1.2 Hitachi Metals Ltd (formerly Neomax Co. Ltd)
    • 6.10.1.3 Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co. Ltd (MMS)
    • 6.10.1.4 Nikki Co.
    • 6.10.1.5 Nippon Yttrium Co. Ltd
    • 6.10.1.6 Panasonic EV Energy
    • 6.10.1.7 Santoku Metal Industry Co. Ltd
    • 6.10.1.8 Seimi Chemical Co. Ltd
    • 6.10.1.9 Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd.
    • 6.10.1.10 Showa Denko Ltd
    • 6.10.1.11 Sumikin Molycorp Inc.
  • 6.10.2 Japanese major rare earth consumers
• 6.11 Kazakhstan
• 6.12 Kyrgyzstan
• 6.13 Malawi
• 6.14 Malaysia
• 6.15 Mongolia
• 6.16 North Korea
• 6.17 Russia
  • 6.17.1 Reserves
  • 6.17.2 Production
  • 6.17.3 Russian rare earths trade
• 6.18 Singapore
• 6.19 South Africa
• 6.20 South Korea
  • 6.20.1 Sodiff Advanced Materials
• 6.21 Taiwan
• 6.22 Thailand
• 6.23 United Kingdom
  • 6.23.1 Leading processing companies
    • 6.23.1.1 Less Common Metals
    • 6.23.1.2 Optical Surface Technologies
• 6.24 USA
  • 6.24.1 Reserves
  • 6.24.2 Mine production
  • 6.24.3 Foreign trade
  • 6.24.4 Processing companies
    • 6.24.4.1 Chevron Mining Inc. (formerly Molycorp Inc.)
    • 6.24.4.2 WR Grace and Co. Ltd
    • 6.24.4.3 Altair Nanotechnologies Inc.
    • 6.24.4.4 Palm International Inc.
    • 6.24.4.5 Rhodia Electronics and Catalysis (Rhodia)
    • 6.24.4.6 Santoku America Inc.
• 6.25 Vietnam

7. World consumption

• 7.1 Rare earths classification
• 7.2 Global consumption
• 7.3 Rare earth consumption by market-sector
  • 7.3.1 Catalysts
  • 7.3.2 Glass
  • 7.3.3 Polishing
  • 7.3.4 Metallurgical applications
  • 7.3.5 Magnets
  • 7.3.6 Phosphors and pigments
  • 7.3.7 Ceramics
  • 7.3.8 Other applications
• 7.4 Major geographical markets
  • 7.4.1 China
  • 7.4.2 Japan and South East Asia
  • 7.4.3 USA
• 7.5 Future consumption of rare earths

8. Consumption by end-use

• 8.1 Consumption: Characteristics
  • 8.1.1 Lanthanum
  • 8.1.2 Cerium
  • 8.1.3 Praseodymium
  • 8.1.4 Neodymium
  • 8.1.5 Samarium
  • 8.1.6 Europium
  • 8.1.7 Gadolinium
  • 8.1.8 Terbium
  • 8.1.9 Dysprosium
  • 8.1.10 Holmium
  • 8.1.11 Erbium
  • 8.1.12 Ytterbium
  • 8.1.13 Lutetium
  • 8.1.14 Yttrium
• 8.2 Catalysts
  • 8.2.1 Autocatalysts
    • 8.2.1.1 Function of rare earths in autocatalysts for petrol fuelled vehicles
    • 8.2.1.2 Market for autocatalysts for petroleum fuelled vehicles and demand for rare earths
    • 8.2.1.3 The market for catalytic control of diesel fuelled vehicles
    • 8.2.1.4 Role of oxygen sensors in autocatalysts
    • 8.2.1.5 Regional markets for autocatalysts
    • 8.2.1.6 Alternatives to autocatalysts
    • 8.2.1.7 Current and future technical developments
    • 8.2.1.8 Current and future demand for rare earths in autocatalysts
  • 8.2.2 Fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) catalysts
    • 8.2.2.1 Future consumption of FCCs
  • 8.2.3 Minor catalytic uses for rare earths
  • 8.2.4 Future consumption of rare earths in catalysts
• 8.3 Glass
  • 8.3.1 Display panels
    • 8.3.1.1 Cathode Ray Tubes (CRTs)
    • 8.3.1.2 Liquid Crystal Displays (LCDs)
    • 8.3.1.3 Plasma Display Panels (PDPs)
  • 8.3.2 Glass stabilisation
  • 8.3.3 Ultra Violet Cut Glass
  • 8.3.4 Glass decolourising
  • 8.3.5 Glass colourising
  • 8.3.6 Other applications for rare earths in glass
    • 8.3.6.1 Optical glass
    • 8.3.6.2 Fluorescence
    • 8.3.6.3 Radiation shielding
    • 8.3.6.4 Glass coating
    • 8.3.6.5 Speciality glass production
  • 8.3.7 Future consumption of rare earths by the glass industry
• 8.4 Polishing
  • 8.4.1 CRT and LCD polishing
  • 8.4.2 Optical glass polishing
  • 8.4.3 Mirrors and flat glass polishing
  • 8.4.4 Polishing of electronic and computer components
  • 8.4.5 Major polishing powder producers
    • 8.4.5.1 China
    • 8.4.5.2 Japan
    • 8.4.5.3 Europe
    • 8.4.5.4 South Korea
    • 8.4.5.5 USA
  • 8.4.6 Future consumption of rare earths for polishing
• 8.5 Metallurgical applications
  • 8.5.1 Steel
    • 8.5.1.1 High strength, low alloy steels
    • 8.5.1.2 Stainless steels
    • 8.5.1.3 Other steels
  • 8.5.2 Cast iron
    • 8.5.2.1 The use of rare earths in ductile cast iron
    • 8.5.2.2 Ferro silicon magnesium
  • 8.5.3 Magnesium alloys
  • 8.5.4 Aluminium alloys
  • 8.5.5 Galfan
  • 8.5.6 Superalloys
    • 8.5.6.1 Oxide dispersion strengthened alloys
  • 8.5.7 Lighter flints
  • 8.5.8 Rare earth metal hydrides
    • 8.5.8.1 Nickel metal hydride batteries
    • 8.5.8.2 Other applications for rare earth-nickel metal hydrides
  • 8.5.9 Future consumption of rare earths for metallurgical applications
• 8.6 Magnets
  • 8.6.1 Use of rare earths in magnets
  • 8.6.2 Production and markets for magnets
    • 8.6.2.1 China
    • 8.6.2.2 Japan
    • 8.6.2.3 Other Countries
  • 8.6.3 Future consumption of rare earths in magnets
• 8.7 Phosphors and Pigments
  • 8.7.1 Phosphors
    • 8.7.1.1 Fluorescent lighting
    • 8.7.1.2 Display tubes and panels
    • 8.7.1.3 Other lamps
    • 8.7.1.4 Medical radiography
    • 8.7.1.5 Signs and Signals
    • 8.7.1.6 Other uses for rare earth phosphors
  • 8.7.2 Pigments
  • 8.7.3 Future consumption of rare earths in phosphors and pigments
• 8.8 Ceramics
  • 8.8.1 Refractories
  • 8.8.2 Electrical and electronic ceramics
    • 8.8.2.1 Ceramic capacitors
    • 8.8.2.2 Fuel cells
    • 8.8.2.3 Humidity sensors
    • 8.8.2.4 Collision sensors
    • 8.8.2.5 Hydrogen production
    • 8.8.2.6 Electro-optic ceramics
  • 8.8.3 Engineering ceramics
    • 8.8.3.1 Partially stabilised zirconia (PSZ)
  • 8.8.4 SiAlONs
    • 8.8.4.1 Uses of SiAlON
  • 8.8.5 Silicon nitride
    • 8.8.5.1 Hot pressed silicon nitride
    • 8.8.5.2 Sintered silicon nitride
    • 8.8.5.3 Ceramic bearings
  • 8.8.6 Consumption of rare earths in ceramic applications
• 8.9 Fertilisers
• 8.10 Other applications
  • 8.10.1 Lasers
    • 8.10.1.1 Rare earth-doped lasers
    • 8.10.1.2 Consumption of rare earths in lasers
  • 8.10.2 Superconductors
  • 8.10.3 Optical fibres
  • 8.10.4 Nuclear uses
    • 8.10.4.1 Burnable poisons
    • 8.10.4.2 Neutron absorbers
    • 8.10.4.3 Neutron radiography
    • 8.10.4.4 Target materials
    • 8.10.4.5 Control armplates
    • 8.10.4.6 Paint additives
    • 8.10.4.7 Measurement of nuclear ground stress
  • 8.10.5 Magnetostrictive alloys
  • 8.10.6 Jewellery
  • 8.10.7 Electron microscopes
  • 8.10.8 Microwave applications
  • 8.10.9 Magnetic refrigeration
  • 8.10.10 Medical uses
  • 8.10.11 Textiles
  • 8.10.12 Cement additive
  • 8.10.13 Mirrors
  • 8.10.14 Propulsion jets
  • 8.10.15 Geology
  • 8.10.16 Paints and coatings
  • 8.10.17 Solar energy systems
  • 8.10.18 Algae Control
  • 8.10.19 Potential new commercial applications for rare earths
  • 8.10.20 Future demand for rare earths in other applications

9. International trade in rare earths

• 9.1 Trade in rare earth concentrates
• 9.2 Trade in rare earth chemicals and metals
• 9.3 Conclusions from trade statistics

10. Rare earth prices

• 10.1 Historical development of rare earths prices
• 10.2 Price history during the past twenty years
• 10.3 Prices for rare earth ores and concentrates
• 10.4 Prices for intermediate compounds
• 10.5 Prices of rare earth oxides
• 10.6 Prices of rare earth metals
• 10.7 Estimated value of global rare earths market
• 10.8 Prices of downstream rare earth products