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SUMMARY
The Screen Digest report Next Generation Consoles: Games publishing, hardware
analysis and forecasts to 2010 examines the prospects for next generation
platforms and the implications for the console manufacturers and third party
publishers alike. In addition the report forecasts next generation hardware
and software markets to 2010. By using survey data from major software
publishers, the report provides an overview of third party attitudes to making
games for the new console platforms. In addition the report models how many
unit sales a third party publisher will need to sell in order to break even in
the key US market. The report considers the implications for the hardware
manufacturers in an era where the cost of developing new titles has climbed
significantly. The early part of the console cycle is the most costly and
third party publishers must make tough decisions on which of the new platforms
to support, without the benefit of knowing how successful each console will be
in a given territory.
In this period of transition spending on previous generation console software
is in steep decline before the next generation has matured sufficiently to
compensate. Better than expected performance from PS2 and handheld platforms
grew the market in 2006 but publishers will now look to the new platforms to
power growth from 2007 onwards.
According to the report's author, Ed Barton, "Already its obvious that the
industry has taken a great leap forward by releasing next generation
technology and gaming experiences one would not have dared to dream about a
decade ago. Consoles have evolved into multimedia hubs but games remain the
key driver for hardware sales. This report analyses the key roles games
catalogues and publisher support play in driving console sales. It assesses
the publishing strategies of the platform owners and third parties in
producing games to drive the transition from the previous to the next
generation of console gaming."
Key Findings
- Global sales of next generation software is forecast to reach $13.9bn by
2009
- PS2-style dominance will not be repeated in the next generation hardware
market: we anticipate that competition will be far more intense with market
shares split on a territorial basis
- The cost of making games has increased markedly in the next generation, as
a consequence the importance of first party publishing has increased while
third parties seek strategies to mitigate now precipitous levels of risk
- Sales of PS2 games will persist well into the next generation: Screen
Digest anticipates significant PS2 game sales across all major territories
until the end of 2008
In the report
- Global next generation console hardware and software forecasts to 2010
- Analysis of platform owner and third party publisher strategies
- The rising cost of making games
- Break even analysis: how much must a game sell to break even in the US
- Next generation software catalogues: publishing pipelines, historic sales,
new IP and platform exclusivity analysed
- Next generation online: the evolution from games platform to broadband
media hub
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Management summary
Introduction
- Fundamentals of console cycles
- First-party publishers and third-party publishers
Next gen console hardware
Raising the bar - the impact on game production costs
- Why does the cost of making games keep rising?
- Cost mitigation strategies
- Raising barriers to entry and level of risk for publishers
Next gen publishing break even analysis
- Introduction
- Break even analysis I: Single platform
- Break even analysis II: Multi-platform
Publisher strategies for the next-generation
Exploiting online business models
- Key features of next generation console online services
- PlayStation Network Platform
- Microsoft Xbox Live
- Microsoft XBL non-gaming content strategy
- Nintendo Virtual Console
Next generation software analysis
- Introduction
- Games publishing pipelines
- Platform exclusivity
- Five million unit sales
- New IP - who is taking most risks?
- Who is playing safe?
Platform owner publisher strategies
Winners and losers
- Next generation console forecasts
- Strengths and weaknesses summary of content line-up for the 3 platforms
- Which publishers appear best-placed to reap next-gen rewards?
- EA
- Square Enix
- Take Two Interactive
- Ubisoft
Tables and Charts
Management summary
- Global 128 bit (last generation) and 256 bit (next generation) annual
software sales value
- Global 128 bit (last generation) and 256 bit (next generation) annual
software sales value ($m)
Introduction
- Year on year hardware sales trends (Volumes 000s)
- Year on year global hardware volume
- Next generation console overview
Next gen console hardware
- Overview table of launch dates and pricing
Raising the bar - the impact on game production costs
- Next generation console predictions
- Ubisoft scale up: Development staff growth 1992 - 2006
- Incidence of console hits: US Lifetime sales 2004 - 2006
Next gen publishing break even analysis
- US console games: average annual sales per game
- Incidence of console hits: US Lifetime sales 2004 - 2006
- Xbox 360
- Playstation 3
- Wii
- Xbox 360 & Playstation 3 multiplatform
- Xbox 360 & Playstation 3 & Wii multiplatform
Publisher strategies for the next-generation
- World annual software sales value ($m)
- US Software sales by platform 2005-2010
Exploiting online business models
Next generation software analysis
- Total released games to end Q4 06 by platform
- Total games scheduled for release: Q1 07 onwards
- Platform exclusives
- 5m+ selling franchises by platform
- Game release schedules
- Next gen titles based on 5m+ selling IP by publisher
- Games based on new IP by platform
- New IP overview
- First party publisher games analysis
Platform owner content strategies
- Publisher internal development capability
- Microsoft global annual software sales value: Xbox & Xbox 360
- Microsoft Xbox 360: Installed base (PAL territories; US; Japan)
- Microsoft Japan annual software sales volume: Xbox & Xbox 360
- Nintendo DS global annual software sales volumes
- Nintendo Wii annual software sales Value 2006-2010
- Last generation console global installed base
- Winners and losers
- Next generation console global installed base
- Last generation console market shares
- Next generation console installed base global market shares
- Next generation console installed base global market shares
- World: Last generation global installed base by platform
- World: Installed base by platform
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